Zhuang Z, Zhao S, Lin Q, Cao P, Lou Y, Yang L, He D. Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data.
Int J Infect Dis 2020;
94:29-31. [PMID:
32171951 DOI:
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.019]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2020] [Revised: 03/04/2020] [Accepted: 03/05/2020] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
As of March 1, 2020, Iran had reported 987 COVID-19 cases, including 54 associated deaths.
At least six neighboring countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) had reported imported COVID-19 cases from Iran.
We estimated that 16 533 (95% confidence interval 5925–35 538) COVID-19 cases had occurred in Iran by February 25, 2020.
Iran’s ascertainment rate could have been at a level of 0.6% on February 25, 2020.
As of March 1, 2020, Iran had reported 987 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, including 54 associated deaths. At least six neighboring countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) had reported imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. In this study, air travel data and the numbers of cases from Iran imported into other Middle Eastern countries were used to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in Iran. It was estimated that the total number of cases in Iran was 16 533 (95% confidence interval: 5925–35 538) by February 25, 2020, before the UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries suspended inbound and outbound flights from Iran.
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