National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2022

Purpose

To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2022 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors.

Methods

Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2022 were reviewed—including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, generics, COVID-19 pandemic influence, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2022 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion.

Results

In 2021, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the US grew 7.7% compared to 2020, for a total of $576.9 billion. Utilization (a 4.8% increase), price (a 1.9% increase) and new drugs (a 1.1% increase) drove this increase. Adalimumab was the top drug in terms of overall expenditures in 2021, followed by apixaban and dulaglutide. Drug expenditures were $39.6 billion (a 8.4% increase) and $105.0 billion (a 7.7% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and in clinics, respectively. In clinics and hospitals, new products and increased utilization growth drove growth, with decreasing prices for both sectors acting as an expense restraint. Several new drugs that are likely to influence spending are expected to be approved in 2022. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures along with the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Conclusion

For 2022, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 4.0% to 6.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 7.0% to 9.0% and 3.0% to 5.0%, respectively, compared to 2021. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

Responsible pricing in value-based assessment of cancer drugs: real-world data are an inevitable addition to select meaningful new cancer treatments

Recently, NICE was given the task of governing the Cancer Drug Fund (CDF) in the UK as the latter was criticized for allowing too many insufficiently tested drugs to be covered [1, 2]. The CDF was initiated in 2012, but immediately received criticism from several health economists because of the rather strict coverage criteria that are commonly used by NICE for most other health services in the NHS. This led to questions about the use of different reimbursement criteria (why have a different fund otherwise?) for expensive cancer drugs. Such a separate fund would potentially take away large amounts of the collective health budget. This led to questions about the use of different reimbursement criteria (why have a different fund otherwise?) for expensive cancer drugs compared to other technologies. This is just one example of discussions that are taking place in many countries on the issue of drug coverage policies. This development takes place against a background of increasingly intense discussion on pricing and affordability of (new) cancer drugs, the responsible behavior of pharmaceutical companies that spend public resources for R&D, and the lack of transparency in pricing and R&D expenditure in combination with profit margins of sometimes up to 20%. We argue that Real-World Evidence (RWE) may play a much greater and, on occasion, pivotal role in developing sustainable cancer care, because it allows much better estimates of actual drug use and costs and increases transparency in health outcomes.