A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards

Modern civilization has no collective experience with possible wide-ranging effects from a medium-sized asteroid impactor. Currently, modeling efforts that predict initial effects from a meteor impact or airburst provide needed information for initial preparation and evacuation plans, but longer-term cascading hazards are not typically considered. However, more common natural disasters, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, wildfires, dust storms, and hurricanes, are likely analogs that can provide the scope and scale of these potential effects. These events, especially the larger events with cascading effects, are key for understanding the scope and complexity of mitigation, relief, and recovery efforts for a medium-sized asteroid impact event. This paper reviews the initial and cascading effects of these natural hazards, describes the state of the art for modeling these hazards, and discusses the relevance of these hazards to expected long-term effects of an asteroid impact. Emergency managers, resource managers and planners, and research scientists involved in mitigation and recovery efforts would likely derive significant benefit from a framework linking multiple hazard models to provide a seamless sequence of related forecasts.

Increased human risk caused by cascading hazards - A framework

Cascading hazards occur frequently. Unexpected casualties and losses of properties, or even impacts on the society and the environment may ensue from failure to anticipate the amplified risks induced by cascading hazards. Current risk assessment methods pay relatively less attention to quantifying the increased human risk related to "cascading" events. An improved framework for quantifying the human risk caused by cascading hazards is proposed in this paper. The framework considers the interactions among the cascading hazards and among the vulnerabilities of elements to these hazards. Its kernel is to scientifically anticipate and gear up for any new intensified hazards, which may otherwise lead to serious social aftermath. The framework is illustrated with a multi-hazard example close to the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake, which involved a chain of hazards including slope failures, a large debris flow, river damming, and flooding.

When disaster management agencies create disaster risk: a case study of the US's Federal Emergency Management Agency

PURPOSE

Disaster management agencies are mandated to reduce risk for the populations that they serve. Yet, inequities in how they function may result in their activities creating disaster risk, particularly for already vulnerable and marginalized populations. In this article, how disaster management agencies create disaster risk for vulnerable and marginalized groups is examined, seeking to show the ways existing policies affect communities, and provide recommendations on policy and future research.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH

The authors undertook a systematic review of the US disaster management agency, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), examining its programs through a lens of equity to understand how they shape disaster risk.

FINDINGS

Despite a growing commitment to equity within FEMA, procedural, distributive, and contextual inequities result in interventions that perpetuate and amplify disaster risk for vulnerable and marginalized populations. Some of these inequities could be remediated by shifting toward a more bottom-up approach to disaster management, such as community-based disaster risk reduction approaches.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS

Disaster management agencies and other organizations can use the results of this study to better understand how to devise interventions in ways that limit risk creation for vulnerable populations, including through community-based approaches.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE

This study is the first to examine disaster risk creation from an organizational perspective, and the first to focus explicitly on how disaster management agencies can shape risk creation. This helps understand the linkages between disaster risk creation, equity and organizations.