Machine learning to predict unintended pregnancy among reproductive-age women in Ethiopia: evidence from EDHS 2016

BACKGROUND

An unintended pregnancy is a pregnancy that is either unwanted or mistimed, such as when it occurs earlier than desired. It is one of the most important issues the public health system is currently facing, and it comes at a significant cost to society both economically and socially. The burden of an undesired pregnancy still weighs heavily on Ethiopia. The purpose of this study was to assess the effectiveness of machine learning algorithms in predicting unintended pregnancy in Ethiopia and to identify the key predictors.

METHOD

Machine learning techniques were used in the study to analyze secondary data from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. To predict and identify significant determinants of unintended pregnancy using Python software, six machine-learning algorithms were applied to a total sample of 7193 women. The top unplanned pregnancy predictors were chosen using the feature importance technique. The effectiveness of such models was evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under the curve.

RESULT

The ExtraTrees classifier was chosen as the top machine learning model after various performance evaluations. The region, the ideal number of children, religion, wealth index, age at first sex, husband education, refusal sex, total births, age at first birth, and mother's educational status are identified as contributing factors in that predict unintended pregnancy.

CONCLUSION

The ExtraTrees machine learning model has a better predictive performance for identifying predictors of unintended pregnancies among the chosen algorithms and could improve with better policy decision-making in this area. Using these important features to help direct appropriate policy can significantly increase the chances of mother survival.

Association between water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) and child undernutrition in Ethiopia: a hierarchical approach

Background

Undernutrition is a significant public health challenge and one of the leading causes of child mortality in a wide range of developing countries, including Ethiopia. Poor access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) facilities commonly contributes to child growth failure. There is a paucity of information on the interrelationship between WASH and child undernutrition (stunting and wasting). This study aimed to assess the association between WASH and undernutrition among under-five-year-old children in Ethiopia.

Methods

A secondary data analysis was undertaken based on the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS) conducted from 2000 to 2016. A total of 33,763 recent live births extracted from the EDHS reports were included in the current analysis. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to investigate the association between WASH and child undernutrition. Relevant factors from EDHS data were identified after extensive literature review.

Results

The overall prevalences of stunting and wasting were 47.29% [95% CI: (46.75, 47.82%)] and 10.98% [95% CI: (10.65, 11.32%)], respectively. Children from households having unimproved toilet facilities [AOR: 1.20, 95% CI: (1.05,1.39)], practicing open defecation [AOR: 1.29, 95% CI: (1.11,1.51)], and living in households with dirt floors [AOR: 1.32, 95% CI: (1.12,1.57)] were associated with higher odds of being stunted. Children from households having unimproved drinking water sources were significantly less likely to be wasted [AOR: 0.85, 95% CI: (0.76,0.95)] and stunted [AOR: 0.91, 95% CI: (0.83, 0.99)]. We found no statistical differences between improved sanitation, safe disposal of a child’s stool, or improved household flooring and child wasting.

Conclusion

The present study confirms that the quality of access to sanitation and housing conditions affects child linear growth indicators. Besides, household sources of drinking water did not predict the occurrence of either wasting or stunting. Further longitudinal and interventional studies are needed to determine whether individual and joint access to WASH facilities was strongly associated with child stunting and wasting.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14309-z.