Retrospective analysis of the main feedstocks for animal feed in the world: How the green revolution has affected their environmental performance over the last 60 years, from 1961 to 2021

At the end of the 1950s, studies began to create high-yield cultivars with the aim of increasing the supply of basic foods in the world, this action was called "green evolution". It was associated with the increase in the use of inputs to increase production levels, leading agriculture to a possible increase in environmental impacts and "harmful habits" of management. To characterize the historical damage of this action, it is necessary to use methods that generate universal results, capable of representing the world. Then, we use Life cycle assessment (LCA) to estimate the historical evolution of the environmental impacts of the two main feedstock for feed in the world, soybeans, and corn, from 1961 to 2021. To better understand the variation in their impacts, we consider the change in agricultural management when we use as a functional unit the amount of area needed to produce 1 kg of grain. Although emissions and impacts from agriculture, by area, have increased each decade, when considering productivity through the area/production ratio, we note that a number of emissions were avoided, along with impacts in all categories evaluated. Therefore, the development and use of technologies that modify the area/production ratio can contribute to avoiding environmental impacts.

Households food consumption pattern in Pakistan: Evidence from recent household integrated economic survey

The analysis of food consumption pattern is a primary concern of any developing country because it is related with food security. Pakistan is one of the emerging nations of the developing world. Due to the similarities and differences in households' food consumption behavior, income distribution, the effects of alternative tax structures, cost-benefit analyses, and the choice of cost of living index, the study of households' food consumption pattern is crucial for a developing nation like Pakistan. Furthermore, for Pakistan's food security in the present and the future, an analysis of food consumption pattern is crucial. The main objective of this study is to analyze the households' food consumption pattern. Linear Approximation Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) is applied using data from Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) for the year 2018-19. This study makes a significant contribution by estimating household age composition elasticities, which were absent from earlier studies. Results from the income elasticities reveal that milk, meat, and fruits are luxuries food items. Similarly, on the basis of inelastic income elasticities we declared cereals, pulses, vegetables, sugar, and ghee as necessity food items. Results from the compensated own price elasticities show that the eight food commodity groups have inelastic own-price elasticities. This implies that these food commodities are integral food items of household diet. Results from the compensated cross-price elasticities shows that cereals and pulses, cereals and vegetables, pulses and vegetables, milk and fruits, meat and fruits, and milk and ghee are gross substitutes. On the other hand, pulses and meat, pulses and fruits, and ghee and meat are gross complements. According to the findings of the household age composition elasticities, adding children to a household significantly increases its sugar consumption while significantly reducing its fruit consumption. Any increase in the size of the household by an adolescent, adult, or a person in their middle age results in a significant increase in the consumption of cereals and a significant drop in the consumption of fruits. Finally, any increase in the size of the households brought about by an elder resulted in a significant rise in the consumption of cereals and a significant drop in the consumption of vegetables.

Poverty, price and preference barriers to improving diets in sub-Saharan Africa

Suboptimal diets are the most important preventable risk factor for the global burden of non-communicable diseases. The EAT-Lancet reference diet was therefore developed as a benchmark for gauging divergence from healthy eating standards. However, no previous research has comprehensively explored how and why this divergence exists in poorer countries undergoing nutrition transitions. This study therefore analyzes dietary patterns and drivers of the demand for nutritious foods using nationally representative household surveys from Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. We show how barriers to dietary convergence stem from combinations of poverty, high relative food prices and weak preferences for some specific healthy foods. The article concludes by discussing interventions for strengthening consumer demand for healthy diets in Africa.

Validating LA/AIDS model in the food market of Pakistan

The study aims to conduct a consumer demand analysis of the food market of Pakistan by estimating its own price and cross-price elasticities. This study also examines expenditure and income elasticities to show the influence of relative change in price, total expenditure, and income on the relative change in demanded quantities of the selected food products. The study takes meat, vegetables, fruits, and pulses as different food baskets and estimates income elasticities, including uncompensated (Marshallian) and compensated (Hicksian) own price and cross-price elasticities. The findings are concluded based on Marshallian elasticity as it provides more accurate images of substitutes and complements compared with Hicksian elasticity. The study applies the Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System model to estimate the results by acquiring data from a household integrated economic survey of Pakistan from 2018 to 2019. The findings of expenditure elasticity (uncompensated own price elasticity) reveal that vegetables and pulses are normal (inelastic) goods, whereas meat and fruits are luxury (elastic) goods. The results of uncompensated cross-price elasticities reveal that vegetables and meat, and vegetables and fruits are substitutable commodities. In addition, pulses and vegetables, and pulses and meat are complementary goods. The study suggests fruitful implications for food policymakers.

Forecasting future global food demand: A systematic review and meta-analysis of model complexity

Predicting future food demand is a critical step for formulating the agricultural, economic and conservation policies required to feed over 9 billion people by 2050 while doing minimal harm to the environment. However, published future food demand estimates range substantially, making it difficult to determine optimal policies. Here we present a systematic review of the food demand literature-including a meta-analysis of papers reporting average global food demand predictions-and test the effect of model complexity on predictions. We show that while estimates of future global kilocalorie demand have a broad range, they are not consistently dependent on model complexity or form. Indeed, time-series and simple income-based models often make similar predictions to integrated assessments (e.g., with expert opinions, future prices or climate influencing forecasts), despite having different underlying assumptions and mechanisms. However, reporting of model accuracy and uncertainty was uncommon, leading to difficulties in making evidence-based decisions about which forecasts to trust. We argue for improved model reporting and transparency to reduce this problem and improve the pace of development in this field.

Temporal relationships between food acquisition and voluntary exercise in mice

Patterns of operant food acquisition in a closed economy and bouts of either voluntary wheel running (WR) or spontaneous locomotor activity in a standard condition (SC) with no wheel were examined in young adult male and female C57BL/6 mice across a range of nose poke prices (FUP) per food pellet. Both sexes showed vigorous WR or locomotor activity. At each FUP, WR groups had higher food intake than SC groups. Despite substantially higher mean body weight of males compared with females, intakes and activity did not differ by sex in the SC groups and males lost weight more rapidly as FUP increased. In contrast, WR males ran ∼33% further per day than females, increased their food intake (above that of SC counterparts) more than females, and lost less body weight than SC males. By parsing the night in four 3h epochs it was found that food intake declined progressively through the night in both WR and SC mice and that the hyperphagia of WR relative to SC groups was most evident early in the night, coincident with highest activity. No large or systematic sex differences were revealed in these temporal analyses. Analysis of data at 60s resolution showed that pellet acquisition occurred in many small or short bouts, the timing of which was either intercalated or concurrent with either locomotor activity or WR. The results show that increased eating due to WR occurs concurrently with maximum running, and with no evidence of delayed compensation.

Malthus is still wrong: we can feed a world of 9-10 billion, but only by reducing food demand

In 1798, Thomas Robert Malthus published 'An essay on the principle of population' in which he concluded that: 'The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.' Over the following century he was criticised for underestimating the potential for scientific and technological innovation to provide positive change. Since then, he has been proved wrong, with a number of papers published during the past few decades pointing out why he has been proved wrong so many times. In the present paper, I briefly review the main changes in food production in the past that have allowed us to continue to meet ever growing demand for food, and I examine the possibility of these same innovations delivering food security in the future. On the basis of recent studies, I conclude that technological innovation can no longer be relied upon to prove Malthus wrong as we strive to feed 9-10 billion people by 2050. Unless we are prepared to accept a wide range of significant, undesirable environmental consequences, technology alone cannot provide food security in 2050. Food demand, particularly the demand for livestock products, will need to be managed if we are to continue to prove Malthus wrong into the future.