[Predictive value of combination of MRI tumor regression grade and apparent diffusion coefficient for pathological complete remission after neoadjuvant treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer]

Objective: Pelvic high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has now become a standard method for evaluating the efficacy of neoadjuvant treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). However, this traditional morphological qualitative assessment method based on T2-weighted imaging (T2WI) is not effective in predicting pathological complete remission (pCR). The purpose of this study is to investigate whether combining the magnetic resonance tumor regression grade (mrTRG) with apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) can improve diagnostic value for pCR after preoperative neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) of LARC. Methods: This was a diagnostic study. Clinicopathological data of 134 LARC patients who received nCRT and radical surgery in the First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University from January 2017 to December 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. All the patients underwent MRI which included T2WI and DWI sequences before and 8 weeks after nCRT. Two radiologists independently drew ROIs on T2WI and DWI to estimate mrTRG stage and calculate the mean ADC value. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) method was applied to evaluate the predict value of mrTRG combined with mean ADC value for pCR. Results: Of 134 LARC patients, 85 were male and 49 were female with median age of 58 (28-82) years. After nCRT, MRI suggested 21 patients (15.7%) had clinical complete remission (cCR), e.g. mrTRG stage 1-2. Postoperative pathology revealed 31 (23.1%) patients had pCR. The evaluations of mrTRG and ADC value by the two readers were highly consistent, and the intra-group correlation coefficients were 0.83 (95% CI: 0.703-0.881) and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.989-0.996), respectively. There was a negative correlation between mrTRG and pCR (r(s)=-0.505, P<0.01), and a positive correlation between mean ADC value and pCR (r(s)=0.693, P<0.01). The ROC curve showed that mrTRG alone had a medium predictive value for pCR, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.832 (95% CI: 0.743-0.921); the mean ADC value had a higher predictive value for pCR, with AUC of 0.906 (95% CI: 0.869-0.962). The predictive value of the combined model of mrTRG and ADC value for pCR was significantly better than that of mrTRG alone (P=0.015), and the AUC was 0.908 (95% CI: 0.849-0.968). Conclusion: Both mrTRG and mean ADC value can be non-invasive methods to predict the efficacy of nCRT for LARC. Combining the mean ADC value with mrTRG can result in better pCR prediction.

Developing a prediction model based on MRI for pathological complete response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to build an appropriate diagnostic model for predicting pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), by combining magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) parameters with clinical factors.

METHODS

Eighty-four patients with LARC who underwent MR examination before and after nCRT were enrolled in this study. MRI parameters including cylindrical approximated tumor volume (CATV) and relative signal intensity of tumor (rT2wSI) were measured; corresponding reduction rates (RR) were calculated; and MR tumor regression grade (mrTRG) and other conventional MRI parameters were assessed. Logistic regression with lasso regularization was performed and the appropriate prediction model for pCR was built up. An external cohort of thirty-six patients was used as the validation group for testing the model. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to assess the diagnostic performance.

RESULTS

In the development and the validation group, 17 patients (20.2%) and 11 patients (30.6%), respectively, achieved pCR. Two CATV-related parameters (CATVpost, which is the CATV measured after nCRT and CATVRR), one rT2wSI-related parameter (rT2wSIRR), and mrTRG were the most important parameters for predicting pCR and were retained in the diagnostic model. In the development group, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting pCR is 0.88 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78-0.97, p < 0.001], with a sensitivity of 82.4% and a specificity of 83.6%. In the validation group, the AUC is 0.84 (95% CI 0.70-0.98, p = 0.001), with a sensitivity of 81.8% and a specificity of 76.0%.

CONCLUSION

A diagnostic model including CATVpost, CATVRR, rT2wSIRR, and mrTRG was useful for predicting pCR after nCRT in patients with LARC and may be used as an effective organ-preservation strategy.