The emergence, spread and vanishing of a French SARS-CoV-2 variant exemplifies the fate of RNA virus epidemics and obeys the Mistigri rule

The nature and dynamics of mutations associated with the emergence, spread, and vanishing of SARS-CoV-2 variants causing successive waves are complex. We determined the kinetics of the most common French variant ("Marseille-4") for 10 months since its onset in July 2020. Here, we analyzed and classified into subvariants and lineages 7453 genomes obtained by next-generation sequencing. We identified two subvariants, Marseille-4A, which contains 22 different lineages of at least 50 genomes, and Marseille-4B. Their average lifetime was 4.1 ± 1.4 months, during which 4.1 ± 2.6 mutations accumulated. Growth rate was 0.079 ± 0.045, varying from 0.010 to 0.173. Most of the lineages exhibited a bell-shaped distribution. Several beneficial mutations at unpredicted sites initiated a new outbreak, while the accumulation of other mutations resulted in more viral heterogenicity, increased diversity and vanishing of the lineages. Marseille-4B emerged when the other Marseille-4 lineages vanished. Its ORF8 gene was knocked out by a stop codon, as reported in SARS-CoV-2 of mink and in the Alpha variant. This subvariant was associated with increased hospitalization and death rates, suggesting that ORF8 is a nonvirulence gene. We speculate that the observed heterogenicity of a lineage may predict the end of the outbreak.

The Spike of Concern-The Novel Variants of SARS-CoV-2

The high sequence identity of the first SARS-CoV-2 samples collected in December 2019 at Wuhan did not foretell the emergence of novel variants in the United Kingdom, North and South America, India, or South Africa that drive the current waves of the pandemic. The viral spike receptor possesses two surface areas of high mutagenic plasticity: the supersite in its N-terminal domain (NTD) that is recognised by all anti-NTD antibodies and its receptor binding domain (RBD) where 17 residues make contact with the human Ace2 protein (angiotensin I converting enzyme 2) and many neutralising antibodies bind. While NTD mutations appear at first glance very diverse, they converge on the structure of the supersite. The mutations within the RBD, on the other hand, hone in on only a small number of key sites (K417, L452, E484, N501) that are allosteric control points enabling spike to escape neutralising antibodies while maintaining or even gaining Ace2-binding activity. The D614G mutation is the hallmark of all variants, as it promotes viral spread by increasing the number of open spike protomers in the homo-trimeric receptor complex. This review discusses the recent spike mutations as well as their evolution.

Emergence and outcomes of the SARS-CoV-2 'Marseille-4' variant

BACKGROUND

In Marseille, France, following a first severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak in March-May 2020, a second epidemic phase occurred from June, involving 10 new variants. The Marseille-4 variant caused an epidemic that started in August and is still ongoing.

METHODS

The 1038 SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences obtained in our laboratory by next-generation sequencing with Illumina technology were analysed using Nextclade and nextstrain/ncov pipelines and IQ-TREE. A Marseille-4-specific qPCR assay was implemented. Demographic and clinical features were compared between patients with the Marseille-4 variant and those with earlier strains.

RESULTS

Marseille-4 harbours 13 hallmark mutations. One leads to an S477N substitution in the receptor binding domain of the spike protein targeted by current vaccines. Using a specific qPCR, it was observed that Marseille-4 caused 12-100% of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Marseille from September 2020, being involved in 2106 diagnoses. This variant was more frequently associated with hypoxemia than were clade 20A strains before May 2020. It caused a re-infection in 11 patients diagnosed with different SARS-CoV-2 strains before June 2020, suggesting either short-term protective immunity or a lack of cross-immunity.

CONCLUSIONS

Marseille-4 should be considered as a major SARS-CoV-2 variant. Its sudden appearance points towards an animal reservoir, possibly mink. The protective role of past exposure and current vaccines against this variant should be evaluated.

Implementation of an in-house real-time reverse transcription-PCR assay for the rapid detection of the SARS-CoV-2 Marseille-4 variant

Introduction

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been associated with the occurrence since summer 2020 of several viral variants that overlapped or succeeded each other in time. Those of current concern harbor mutations within the spike receptor binding domain (RBD) that may be associated with viral escape to immune responses. In our geographical area a viral variant we named Marseille-4 harbors a S477 N substitution in this RBD.

Materials and methods

We aimed to implement an in-house one-step real-time reverse transcription-PCR (qPCR) assay with a hydrolysis probe that specifically detects the SARS-CoV-2 Marseille-4 variant.

Results

All 6 cDNA samples from Marseille-4 variant strains identified in our institute by genome next-generation sequencing (NGS) tested positive using our Marseille-4 specific qPCR, whereas all 32 cDNA samples from other variants tested negative. In addition, 39/42 (93 %) respiratory samples identified by NGS as containing a Marseille-4 variant strain and 0/26 samples identified as containing non-Marseille-4 variant strains were positive. Finally, 2018/3960 (51%) patients SARS-CoV-2-diagnosed in our institute, 10/277 (3.6 %) respiratory samples collected in Algeria, and none of 207 respiratory samples collected in Senegal, Morocco, or Lebanon tested positive using our Marseille-4 specific qPCR.

Discussion

Our in-house qPCR system was found reliable to detect specifically the Marseille-4 variant and allowed estimating it is involved in about half of our SARS-CoV-2 diagnoses since December 2020. Such approach allows the real-time surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 variants, which is warranted to monitor and assess their epidemiological and clinical characterics based on comprehensive sets of data.