Dynamic analysis of rumor propagation model with media report and time delay on social networks

When a rumor appears on social networks, the media of relevant departments need reaction time to make an authoritative announcement. Considering the effects of the media report and time delay on a rumor spreading, and the different attitudes of individuals towards media reports. We proposed a susceptible-expose-infective-media-remover (SEIMR) rumor propagation model with media reports and time delay. Firstly, the basic reproduction number of the model is obtained. Secondly, the positivity, boundedness and existence of the solutions of the model are analyzed. Then, the local asymptotic stability of the rumor free equilibrium and the boundary equilibriums is proved, and the global asymptotic stability of the equilibriums is proved by constructing Lyapunov function when the time delay is zero. Besides, the prevention and control effects of the media report on rumor spreading and the effect of time delay are analyzed. The shorter time delay in media report and the greater the impact of the media report, the more effective the suppression of rumors will be. Finally, the accuracy of the theoretical results as well as the effects of different parameters of the model have been verified through numerical simulations, and the effectiveness of the SEIMR model has been verified via comparative experiments.

The impact of media reports on energy and environmental efficiency in China: evidence from modified dynamic DEA with undesirable outputs

Background

Rapid economic growth in China has resulted in a commensurate increase in energy consumption, which in turn has seen an increase in environmental pollution problems. Past research has tended to focus on energy and environmental efficiency analyses and has rarely examined the media influence on environmental protection efforts. Further, most studies have used static models and ignored the dynamic changes over time.

Methods

To go some way to filling this research gap, this study developed a modified undesirable Dynamic DEA model that included air quality index (AQI) and CO₂ indicators to explore the relationships between energy, the environment, and media report efficiencies in 31 Chinese cities from 2013 to 2016.

Results

It was found that: (1) Chongqing, Guangzhou, Nanjing and Shanghai had efficiencies of 1, but Lanzhou, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Xining and Yinchuan needed significant improvements; (2) Chongqing, Guangzhou, Kunming, Nanning and Shanghai had relatively high media efficiencies, but the other cities had low efficiencies and required improvements; (3) the CO₂ emissions efficiencies in most cities were better than the air quality index efficiencies; and 4. the media reports in most cities were found to have a more positive impact on the CO₂ emissions efficiency than on the AQI efficiency.

Conclusions

Environmental awareness enhances civilian health and promotes economic growth. Therefore, as the news media should be responsible for promoting environmental protection, they need to increase their environmental pollution coverage. It was found that the environmental pollution media report quality and especially air pollution reports needed improvements, and greater media coverage on environmental pollution and awareness was needed.

Impact of media reports on the early spread of COVID-19 epidemic

Media reports can modify people's knowledge of emerging infectious diseases, and thus changing the public attitudes and behaviors. However, how the media reports affect the development of COVID-19 epidemic is a key public health issue. Here the Pearson correlation and cross-correlation analyses are conducted to find the statistically significant correlations between the number of new hospital notifications for COVID-19 and the number of daily news items for twelve major websites in China from January 11th to February 6th 2020. To examine the implication for transmission dynamics of these correlations, we proposed a novel model, which embeds the function of individual behaviour change (media impact) into the intensity of infection. The nonlinear least squares estimation is used to identify the best-fit parameter values in the model from the observed data. To determine impact of key parameters with media impact and control measures for the later outcome of the outbreak, we also carried out the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. These findings confirm the importance of the responses of individuals to the media reports, and the crucial role of experts and governments in promoting the public under self-quarantine. Therefore, for mitigating epidemic COVID-19, the media publicity should be focused on how to guide people's behavioral changes by experts, and the management departments and designated hospitals of the COVID-19 should take effective quarantined measures, which are critical for the control of the disease.

Media coverage and hospital notifications: Correlation analysis and optimal media impact duration to manage a pandemic

News reporting has the potential to modify a community's knowledge of emerging infectious diseases and affect peoples' attitudes and behavior. Here we developed a quantitative approach to evaluate the effects of media on such behavior. Statistically significant correlations between the number of new hospital notifications, during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza epidemic in the Shaanxi province of China, and the number of daily news items added to eight major websites were found from Pearson correlation and cross-correlation analyses. We also proposed a novel model to examine the implication for transmission dynamics of these correlations. The model incorporated the media impact function into the intensity of infection, and enhanced the traditional epidemic SEIR model with the addition of media dynamics. We used a nonlinear least squares estimation to identify the best-fit parameter values in the model from the observed data. We also carried out the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to determine key parameters during early phase of the disease outbreak for the final outcome of the outbreak with media impact. The findings confirm the importance of responses by individuals to the media reports, with behavior changes having important consequence for the emerging infectious disease control. Therefore, for mitigating emerging infectious diseases, media reports should be focused on how to guide people's behavioral changes, which are critical for limiting the spread of disease.

The impact of indiscriminate media coverage of a celebrity suicide on a society with a high suicide rate: epidemiological findings on copycat suicides from South Korea

BACKGROUND

This study examines the extent to which the indiscriminate media coverage of the famous young actress Lee Eun-ju's suicide in 2005 affected suicides overall and in specific subgroups (by age, gender, and suicide method) in a suicide-prone society, South Korea.

METHODS

South Korea's 2003-2005 suicide data (n=34,237) were obtained from death certificate records of the National Statistical Office (NSO). Data was analyzed with Poisson time series auto-regression models.

RESULTS

After adjusting for confounding factors (such as seasonal variation, calendar year, temperature, humidity, and unemployment rate), there was a significant increase in suicide (RR=1.40, 95%, CI=1.30-1.51, no. of excess mortalities=331; 95% CI=267-391) during the 4 weeks after Lee's suicide. This increase was more prominent in subgroups with similar characteristics to the celebrity. In particular, the relative risk of suicide during this period was the largest (5.24; 95% CI=3.31-8.29) in young women who used the same suicide method as the celebrity. Moreover, the incidence of these copycat suicides during the same time significantly increased in both genders and in all age subgroups among those who committed suicide using the same method as the celebrity (hanging).

LIMITATIONS

It is difficult to prove conclusively that the real motivation of the suicides was Lee's death.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings from this study imply that, if the media indiscreetly reports the suicide of a celebrity in a suicide-prone society, the copycat effect can be far-reaching and very strong, particularly for vulnerable people.