Safety performance evaluation of freeway merging areas under autonomous vehicles environment using a co-simulation platform

Merging areas serve as the potential bottlenecks for continuous traffic flow on freeways. Traffic incidents in freeway merging areas are closely related to decision-making errors of human drivers, for which the autonomous vehicles (AVs) technologies are expected to help enhance the safety performance. However, evaluating the safety impact of AVs is challenging in practice due to the lack of real-world driving and incident data. Despite the increasing number of simulation-based AV studies, most relied on single traffic/vehicle driving simulators, which exhibit limitations such as inaccurate description of AV behavior using pre-defined driving models, limited testing modules, and a lack of high-fidelity traffic scenarios. To this end, this study addresses these challenges by customizing different types of car-following models for AVs on freeway and developing a software-in-the-loop co-simulation platform for safety performance evaluation. Specifically, the environmental perception module is integrated in PreScan, the decision-making and control model for AVs is designed by Matlab, and the traffic flow environment is established by Vissim. Such a co-simulation platform is supposed to be able to reproduce the mixed traffic with AVs to a large extent. By taking a real freeway merging scenario as an example, comprehensive experiments were conducted by introducing a single AV and multiple AVs on the mainline of freeway, respectively. The single AV experiment investigated the performance of different car-following models microscopically in the case of merging conflict. The safety and comfort of AVs were examined in terms of TTC and jerk, respectively. The multiple AVs experiment examined the safety impact of AVs on mixed traffic of freeway merging areas macroscopically using the developed risk assessment model. The results show that AVs could bring significant benefits to freeway safety, as traffic conflicts and risks are substantially reduced with incremental market penetration rates.

Multi-vehicle interaction safety of connected automated vehicles in merging area: A real-time risk assessment approach

The risky lane-changing manoeuvre of vehicles often occurs at expressway entrances, which would result in a high crash risk in the freeway system and significantly impact its safety. The highly anticipated environment of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) is expected to reduce the associated crash risk of lane changing by offering various types of driving support, which utilise surrounding traffic information. The modelling crash risk under the environment of CAV driving during mandatory lane changing in merging areas faces new challenges due to the novelty of CAVs and subsequent shortage of data. To explore such risk situation of multi-vehicle interaction at expressway entrances, this study proposed a supervised learning algorithm and a Bayesian hierarchical model to assess risk levels and predict the probability of risk occurrence at different risk levels of interactive vehicles in real time of mandatory driving behaviour during the merging process. The learning algorithm, based on XGBoost, was exploited to classify risk levels. The Bayesian hierarchical model was used to analyse the probability of real-time risk comprising vehicle physical state layer, multi-vehicle interaction layer and risk probability layer. The probabilistic model parameters were calibrated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling method. The K-fold cross validation method was used to validate the proposed model of risk level. The probabilistic model validity was tested through posterior prediction of P-value. The quantitative risk estimation of CAVs through a few merging cases was conducted. Results show that the identification accuracy of slight, low, moderate and high risk is 94.24%, 85.82%, 84.16% and 79.69%, respectively. The P-value of Durbin-Watson's posterior, normal hypothesis, test distribution symmetry and kurtosis are all close to 0.5. Therefore, the method of real-time risk assessment is convergent and has good fitting. This research can promote cautious driving behaviours and provide reference for driver's decision making in the long term under the environment of CAVs.