How does home and host-country policy uncertainty affect outward FDI? Firm-level evidence from China

How the foreign direct investment behavior of enterprises changes in response to the risks and instability of government economic policy changes is a relevant issue which, however, has not been extensively studied yet. Accordingly, this paper establishes a linear probability regression model to study the foreign direct investment behavior of Chinese A-share listed companies in 13 countries between 2003 and 2020 and explores whether multinational companies change their OFDI decisions when the economic policy environment of China and trade-related countries are unstable. A firm heterogeneity analysis and phased discussions were conducted, and a robust conclusion was finally drawn. The results show that (1) China's economic policy uncertainty promotes China's foreign direct investment, while the host country's monetary policy uncertainty inhibits China's foreign direct investment. (2) The foreign direct investment decisions of enterprises are affected not only by the macroeconomic and policy environment of the two trading countries but also by their development characteristics. (3) Sino-US trade frictions and the financial crisis have different effects on China's foreign direct investment.

Can outward foreign direct investment improve China's green economic efficiency?

Under the constraints of energy and environment, improving green economic efficiency (GEE) has become the key path to promote the sustainable economic development. Among the driving factors of GEE, the role of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) is worth exploring. In this paper, we adopt the inter-provincial panel data of China from 2011 to 2019 and System Generalized Method of Moments (SYS-GMM) to explore the influence of OFDI on GEE. We find that OFDI significantly improves China's GEE, and reverse technology spillover through direct investment in developed countries is an important way for OFDI to promote GEE. Regional heterogeneity test shows that OFDI significantly promotes GEE in eastern China; however, the promotion effect is not significant in midwestern China. Besides, the promoting effect of OFDI on GEE has been further improved after 2016. We further adopt panel threshold model and find that when the financial development (FD) and human capital (HUM) exceeds 2.0954 and 0.0290, respectively, the promoting effects of OFDI on GEE are greatly enhanced. We suppose that the above conclusions can provide guidance for policymakers to optimize OFDI and improve GEE.

Outward foreign direct investment, green financial development, and green total factor productivity: evidence from China

Prevailing research suggests reverse green technology spillovers from outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) significantly impact the green total factor productivity (GTFP) of the home country. However, the contribution of OFDI may depend on the home country's absorptive capacity. Based on panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2019, this study constructs a generalized method of moments (GMM) model and a dynamic threshold panel model to empirically investigate how green financial development influences the impact of OFDI on the GTFP of the home country. We found that green financial development plays a positive moderating role in the impact of OFDI on GTFP in home country. The results also show the impact of OFDI on GTFP has a significant single-threshold effect on green financial development. Only when green financial development reaches a certain level can OFDI significantly promote GTFP of the home country. Moreover, regional heterogeneity exists in the moderating effect of green financial development. Given the ongoing growth of China's OFDI, it is vital to decide on a proper green financial development policy to improve the reverse spillover effect of OFDI firms on the nation's GTFP. The empirical analysis suggests that policymakers should build a multilevel green financial system to allocate financial resources and maximize the reverse spillover effect of OFDI.

Impacts of two-way foreign direct investment on carbon emissions: from the perspective of environmental regulation

China's foreign direct investment is an important driving force for economic growth, which also aggravates carbon emissions. Based on China's provincial panel data from 2003 to 2018, this paper uses the panel-fixed effect model and panel threshold model to explore the impacts of two-way foreign direct investment on carbon emissions and analyze the threshold effects of different environmental regulations. The empirical results show that inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions, while outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) leads to the aggravation of carbon emissions. Considering regional heterogeneity, environmental regulation in high-carbon areas mainly affects local OFDI, and environmental regulation in low-carbon areas mainly inhibits carbon emissions by affecting IFDI. In addition, high-carbon regions can achieve the inhibition of OFDI on carbon emissions by strengthening command-and-control regulation and reducing the promotion of OFDI on carbon emissions by strengthening market incentive regulation and voluntary regulation. Meanwhile, excessive command-and-control regulation and market incentive regulation in low-carbon areas bring unexpected regulatory effects, but the inhibitory effect of IFDI on carbon emissions can be increased by strengthening voluntary regulation.

Comprehending the environmental regulation, biased policies and OFDI reverse technology spillover effects: a contingent and dynamic perspective

Technology spillovers have the substantial effect on the industrial structure in emerging economies especially from OFDI (Outward Foreign Direct Investment). This research aims to examines the issue on how environmental regulation and biased policies can more effectively promote the OFDI reverse technology spillover effect, specifically the technology spillovers. By classifying the key industries mentioned in the '12th Five-Year Plan' and '13th Five-Year Plan', this research uses panel data from 2010 to 2019 obtained from provincial OFDI in China and utilizes difference in difference (DID) model and threshold regression approach to validate the analysis. The results show that the key industrial policy is favorable to the local OFDI reverse technology spillover. From the outlook of economic significance, the industrial policy increases the regional OFDI reverse technology spillover by 0.133%. Findings of our study further reveals that the environmental regulation and biased policy effectively promote the regional OFDI reverse technology spillover with certain stability. This study findings will be beneficial for policy makers to stimulate the reverse technology spillover impact of local OFDI more effectively from three aspects such as regional marketization level, innovation ability and financial structure.

Inward foreign direct investment, outward foreign direct investment, and carbon dioxide emission intensity-threshold regression analysis based on interprovincial panel data

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces (except for Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) in China from 2005 to 2016, a nonlinear threshold regression model and a carbon emission expansion models were constructed to empirically analyze the threshold effect of inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) and outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on carbon dioxide emission intensity in China. The results show that (1) China's OFDI has increased carbon dioxide emission intensity while the IFDI has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon dioxide emission intensity. (2) The impact of the OFDI on carbon dioxide emission intensity gets influenced by the threshold effect of population size, economic development level, technology level, and environmental regulation. (3) The impact of the IFDI on carbon dioxide emission intensity also has threshold characteristics affected by population size, economic development level, and technological level. Hence, China should introduce more IFDI, optimize the structure of the OFDI, and exert its environmental improvement effect to satisfy the carbon emission reduction goal earlier.

The impact of outward foreign direct investment on green innovation: the threshold effect of environmental regulation

Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in an open economy has gradually become an important source of green innovation (GI). With the rapid development of China's OFDI, this research studies the impact of OFDI on the country's GI, employing panel data of 30 provinces from 2006 to 2017. We first use the Super-SBM model to measure GI performance and then test the impact of OFDI on GI with the system GMM model. Evidence finds that the negative impact of OFDI on GI is not significant on the whole, but the results of regional regression show that impact of OFDI on GI exhibits obvious regional differences. We then utilize the dynamic threshold panel model to determine the non-linear relationship between OFDI and GI through the perspective of environmental regulation in order to avoid the bias caused by ignoring the impact of institutional factors and time dynamic change. After dividing environmental regulations into command control environmental regulation and market incentive environmental regulation, the research results show that the double threshold effects of both environmental regulations are significant. Command control environmental regulation does not play a role in promoting the effect of OFDI on GI. When the intensity of market incentive environmental regulation is low, OFDI negatively affects GI. Moreover, only when the market incentive regulation shows high intensity can OFDI significantly promote GI. With the continuous growth of China's OFDI, it is therefore necessary to determine the appropriate environmental regulation to improve the reverse spillover effect of OFDI enterprises on the country's GI.

Impact of China's outward foreign direct investment on green total factor productivity in "Belt and Road" participating countries: a perspective of institutional distance

The "Belt and Road" must be built not only as a road to prosperity but also as a green road. However, as China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in "Belt and Road" participating countries has continued to increase, "China's pollution transfer" has also been wildly rendered. This article uses data from 21 European countries participating in the "Belt and Road" Initiative from 2009 to 2018. After calculating the institutional distance between each sample country and China using the Kogut-Singh index, this article focuses on using the threshold regression model to study the relationship between China's OFDI and the host country's green total factor productivity (GTFP). The empirical results prove that China's OFDI is green rather than accompanied by pollution transfer, which can promote GTFP in countries participating in the "Belt and Road" Initiative. However, this positive effect will gradually weaken as political institutional distance and economic institutional distance increase. Moreover, the expansion of OFDI can reduce the impact of institutional distance on GTFP in "Belt and Road" participating countries. Therefore, for "Belt and Road" participating countries that differ greatly from China in terms of their institutional environment, cooperation with China should be strengthened to reduce the impact of bilateral institutional differences.

Institutional distance and Turkey's outward foreign direct investment

This study empirically examines the relation between institutional distance (ID) and Turkey's outward foreign direct investment (TODI). The empirical results use panel data from 2002 to 2016 to show that TODI is attracted to countries with better institutional quality. We also find that host country political stability, government effectiveness, control of corruption, and rule of law attract TODI. We also document that TODI is positively related to cultural distance (CD) and ID is not moderated by CD.