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Li Q, Dou M, Zhang J, Jia P, Wang X, Lei D, Li J, Yang W, Yang R, Yang C, Zhang X, Hao Q, Geng X, Zhang Y, Liu Y, Guo Z, Yao C, Cai Z, Si S, Geng Z, Zhang D. A Bayesian network model to predict neoplastic risk for patients with gallbladder polyps larger than 10 mm based on preoperative ultrasound features. Surg Endosc 2023:10.1007/s00464-023-10056-3. [PMID: 37041283 DOI: 10.1007/s00464-023-10056-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2023] [Accepted: 03/26/2023] [Indexed: 04/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Polyp size of 10 mm is insufficient to discriminate neoplastic and non-neoplastic risk in patients with gallbladder polyps (GPs). The aim of the study is to develop a Bayesian network (BN) prediction model to identify neoplastic polyps and create more precise criteria for surgical indications in patients with GPs lager than 10 mm based on preoperative ultrasound features. METHODS A BN prediction model was established and validated based on the independent risk variables using data from 759 patients with GPs who underwent cholecystectomy from January 2015 to August 2022 at 11 tertiary hospitals in China. The area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were used to evaluate the predictive ability of the BN model and current guidelines, and Delong test was used to compare the AUCs. RESULTS The mean values of polyp cross-sectional area (CSA), long, and short diameter of neoplastic polyps were higher than those of non-neoplastic polyps (P < 0.0001). Independent neoplastic risk factors for GPs included single polyp, polyp CSA ≥ 85 mm 2, fundus with broad base, and medium echogenicity. The accuracy of the BN model established based on the above independent variables was 81.88% and 82.35% in the training and testing sets, respectively. Delong test also showed that the AUCs of the BN model was better than that of JSHBPS, ESGAR, US-reported, and CCBS in training and testing sets, respectively (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION A Bayesian network model was accurate and practical for predicting neoplastic risk in patients with gallbladder polyps larger than 10 mm based on preoperative ultrasound features.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qi Li
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710061, Shaanxi, China
| | - Minghui Dou
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710061, Shaanxi, China
| | - Jingwei Zhang
- Department of Industrial Engineering, School of Mechanical Engineering, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an, 710072, Shaanxi, China
| | - Pengbo Jia
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First People's Hospital of Xianyang City, Xianyang, 712000, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xintuan Wang
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First People's Hospital of Xianyang City, Xianyang, 712000, Shaanxi, China
| | - Da Lei
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Central Hospital of Baoji City, Baoji, 721000, Shaanxi, China
| | - Junhui Li
- Department of General Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710004, Shaanxi, China
| | - Wenbin Yang
- Department of General Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710004, Shaanxi, China
| | - Rui Yang
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Central Hospital of Hanzhong City, Hanzhong, 723000, Shaanxi, China
| | - Chenglin Yang
- Department of General Surgery, Central Hospital of Ankang City, Ankang, 725000, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xiaodi Zhang
- Department of General Surgery, No. 215 Hospital of Shaanxi Nuclear Industry, Xianyang, 712000, Shaanxi, China
| | - Qiwei Hao
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The Second Hospital of Yulin City, Yulin, 719000, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xilin Geng
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Shaanxi Provincial People's Hospital, Xi'an, 710068, Shaanxi, China
| | - Yu Zhang
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Shaanxi Provincial People's Hospital, Xi'an, 710068, Shaanxi, China
| | - Yimin Liu
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, People's Hospital of Baoji City, Baoji, 721000, Shaanxi, China
| | - Zhihua Guo
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, People's Hospital of Baoji City, Baoji, 721000, Shaanxi, China
| | - Chunhe Yao
- Department of General Surgery, Xianyang Hospital of Yan'an University, Xianyang, 712000, Shaanxi, China
| | - Zhiqiang Cai
- Department of Industrial Engineering, School of Mechanical Engineering, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an, 710072, Shaanxi, China
| | - Shubin Si
- Department of Industrial Engineering, School of Mechanical Engineering, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an, 710072, Shaanxi, China
| | - Zhimin Geng
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710061, Shaanxi, China.
| | - Dong Zhang
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710061, Shaanxi, China.
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