Wang Z, Wang R, Wu P, Li B, Li Y, Liu Y, Wang X, Yang P, Tian H, Tian H. Optimization of
Population-Level Testing, Contact Tracing, and Isolation in Emerging COVID-19 Outbreaks: a Mathematical Modeling Study - Tonghua City and Beijing Municipality, China, 2021-2022.
China CDC Wkly 2023;
5:82-89. [PMID:
36777897 PMCID:
PMC9902757 DOI:
10.46234/ccdcw2023.016]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2022] [Accepted: 12/07/2022] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction
The transmissibility of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant poses challenges for the existing measures containing the virus in China. In response, this study investigates the effectiveness of population-level testing (PLT) and contact tracing (CT) to help curb coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) resurgences in China.
Methods
Two transmission dynamic models (i.e. with and without age structure) were developed to evaluate the effectiveness of PLT and CT. Extensive simulations were conducted to optimize PLT and CT strategies for COVID-19 control and surveillance.
Results
Urban Omicron resurgences can be controlled by multiple rounds of PLT, supplemented by CT - as long as testing is frequent. This study also evaluated the time needed to detect COVID-19 cases for surveillance under different routine testing rates. The results show that there is a 90% probability of detecting COVID-19 cases within 3 days through daily testing. Otherwise, it takes around 7 days to detect COVID-19 cases at a 90% probability level if biweekly testing is used. Routine testing applied to the age group 21-60 for COVID-19 surveillance would achieve similar performance to that applied to all populations.
Discussion
Our analysis evaluates potential PLT and CT strategies for COVID-19 control and surveillance.
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