Development of a clinical prediction rule to identify physical activity after total hip arthroplasty

OBJECTIVE

To develop clinical prediction rule (CPR) of physical activity at 1-year after total hip arthroplasty (THA).

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

University hospital with orthopedic surgery.

PARTICIPANTS

The study group included 321 patients (56 men) who underwent primary THA.

INTERVENTION

Not applicable.

MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES

The data collected included age, body mass index, clinical score from the questionnaires, hip pain, range of motion, muscle strength, and Physical functions (10-Meter Walk Test, Timed Up and Go test and Sit-to-stand). Patients were classified into sufficient and insufficient activity groups based on their University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) activity score 1 year after THA. Variables measured preoperatively and at 3 weeks postoperatively were analyzed using univariate and multivariate methods to derive CPR for physical activity.

RESULTS

A CPR was developed using the following five factors and cut-offs: age, ≤70.5 years; preoperative UCLA activity score, ≥3.5; preoperative hip abduction strength, ≥0.54 Nm/kg; preoperative knee extension strength, ≥1.04 Nm/kg; and 10-Meter Walk Test, ≤8.49 s at 3 weeks after surgery. The presence of four of the five factors predicted a sufficient physical activity level at 1-year, with a positive likelihood ratio of 5.94 and probability of 85.4%. The presence of five predictor variables increased the probability of sufficient physical activity after THA to 94.7%.

CONCLUSION

This study developed a CPR for physical activity at 1-year after THA. Having four or more of the five measurements were useful indicators for predicting of physical activity at 1 year postoperatively.