Individual Uncertainty About Longevity

This article presents an assessment of individual uncertainty about longevity. A survey performed on 3,331 French people enables us to record several survival probabilities per individual. On this basis, we compute subjective life expectancies (SLE) and subjective uncertainty regarding longevity (SUL), the standard deviation of each individual's subjective distribution of her or his own longevity. It is large and equal to more than 10 years for men and women. Its magnitude is comparable to the variability of longevity observed in life tables for individuals under 60, but it is smaller for those older than 60, which suggests use of private information by older respondents. Our econometric analysis confirms that individuals use private information-mainly their parents' survival and longevity-to adjust their level of uncertainty. Finally, we find that SUL has a sizable impact, in addition to SLE, on risky behaviors: more uncertainty on longevity significantly decreases the probability of unhealthy lifestyles. Given that individual uncertainty about longevity affects prevention behavior, retirement decisions, and demand for long-term care insurance, these results have important implications for public policy concerning health care and retirement.

Health as a predictor of early retirement before and after introduction of a flexible statutory pension age in Finland

BACKGROUND

Little is known of how pension reforms affect the retirement decisions of people with different health statuses, although this is crucial for the understanding of the broader societal impact of pension policies and for future policy development. We assessed how the Finnish statutory pension age reform introduced in 2005 influenced the role of health as a predictor of retirement.

METHODS

We used register-based data and cox regression analysis to examine the association of health (measured by purchases of psychotropic medication, hospitalizations due to circulatory and musculoskeletal diseases, and the number of any prescription medications) with the risk of retirement at age 63-64 among those subject to the old pension system with fixed age limit at 65 (pre-reform group born in 1937-1941) and the new flexible system with 63 as the lower age limit (post-reform group born in 1941-1945) while controlling for socio-demographic factors.

RESULTS

Retirement at age 63-64 was more likely among the post- than the pre-reform group (HR = 1.50; 95% CI 1.43-1.57). This reform-related increase in retirement was more pronounced among those without a history of psychotropic medication or hospitalizations due to circulatory and musculoskeletal diseases, as well as among those with below median level medication use. As a result, poor health became a weaker predictor of retirement after the reform.

CONCLUSION

Contrary to the expectations of the Finnish pension reform aimed at extending working lives, offering choice with respect to the timing of retirement may actually encourage healthy workers to choose earlier retirement regardless of the provided economic incentives for continuing in work.