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Proverbio D, Kemp F, Magni S, Ogorzaly L, Cauchie HM, Gonçalves J, Skupin A, Aalto A. Model-based assessment of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics by wastewater analysis. Sci Total Environ 2022; 827:154235. [PMID: 35245552 PMCID: PMC8886713 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154235] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2022] [Revised: 02/25/2022] [Accepted: 02/25/2022] [Indexed: 04/14/2023]
Abstract
Continuous surveillance of COVID-19 diffusion remains crucial to control its diffusion and to anticipate infection waves. Detecting viral RNA load in wastewater samples has been suggested as an effective approach for epidemic monitoring and the development of an effective warning system. However, its quantitative link to the epidemic status and the stages of outbreak is still elusive. Modelling is thus crucial to address these challenges. In this study, we present a novel mechanistic model-based approach to reconstruct the complete epidemic dynamics from SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater. Our approach integrates noisy wastewater data and daily case numbers into a dynamical epidemiological model. As demonstrated for various regions and sampling protocols, it quantifies the case numbers, provides epidemic indicators and accurately infers future epidemic trends. Following its quantitative analysis, we also provide recommendations for wastewater data standards and for their use as warning indicators against new infection waves. In situations of reduced testing capacity, our modelling approach can enhance the surveillance of wastewater for early epidemic prediction and robust and cost-effective real-time monitoring of local COVID-19 dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniele Proverbio
- University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine, 6 av. du Swing, Belvaux 4376, Luxembourg
| | - Françoise Kemp
- University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine, 6 av. du Swing, Belvaux 4376, Luxembourg
| | - Stefano Magni
- University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine, 6 av. du Swing, Belvaux 4376, Luxembourg
| | - Leslie Ogorzaly
- Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Environmental Research and Innovation Department, Belvaux 4422, Luxembourg
| | - Henry-Michel Cauchie
- Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Environmental Research and Innovation Department, Belvaux 4422, Luxembourg
| | - Jorge Gonçalves
- University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine, 6 av. du Swing, Belvaux 4376, Luxembourg; University of Cambridge, Department of Plant Sciences, Downing St, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK
| | - Alexander Skupin
- University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine, 6 av. du Swing, Belvaux 4376, Luxembourg; University of Luxembourg, Department of Physics and Materials Science, 162a av. de la Faïencerie, Luxembourg 1511, Luxembourg; University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Dr, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
| | - Atte Aalto
- University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine, 6 av. du Swing, Belvaux 4376, Luxembourg.
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Tiwari SB, Gahlot P, Tyagi VK, Zhang L, Zhou Y, Kazmi AA, Kumar M. Surveillance of Wastewater for Early Epidemic Prediction (SWEEP): Environmental and health security perspectives in the post COVID-19 Anthropocene. Environ Res 2021; 195:110831. [PMID: 33587948 PMCID: PMC7879813 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.110831] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/30/2020] [Revised: 01/28/2021] [Accepted: 01/29/2021] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
The present work summarizes the major research findings related to wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) study of COVID-19 and puts forward a conceptual framework, termed as "Surveillance of Wastewater for Early Epidemic Prediction (SWEEP)" for implementation of WBE. SWEEP framework is likely to tackle few practical issues related to WBE and simultaneously proposes refinements to the approach for better outcome and efficiency to save precious lives around the globe. It is observed that the present pandemic offers an opportunity for SWEEP to get included in routine urban water management to put the humankind at front to stop such pandemic in future or at least be prepared to fight against it. With global collaboration, SWEEP can be fine-tuned to meet diverse needs, making the present and future generations resilient to future viral outbreaks. Recent WBE studies conducted to check for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater revealed that raw sewage samples tested positive to PCR-based assays while the treated samples showed absence of viral titers. Moreover, the lockdown had a positive impact on decreasing the viral loading in sewage. The proposed SWEEP protocol has an advantage over testifying individuals for predicting the stage of pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Satya Brat Tiwari
- Environmental Biotechnology Group (EBiTG), Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, 247667, India
| | - Pallavi Gahlot
- Environmental Biotechnology Group (EBiTG), Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, 247667, India
| | - Vinay Kumar Tyagi
- Environmental Biotechnology Group (EBiTG), Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, 247667, India.
| | - Liang Zhang
- Advanced Environmental Biotechnology Centre, Nanyang Environment and Water Research Institute, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - Yan Zhou
- Advanced Environmental Biotechnology Centre, Nanyang Environment and Water Research Institute, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore; School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - A A Kazmi
- Environmental Biotechnology Group (EBiTG), Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, 247667, India
| | - Manish Kumar
- Discipline of Earth Science, Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, 382-355, India
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