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Lin Z, Sun H, Li D, Cai Z, Huang Z, Liu F, Chen M, Wang Y, Xu J, Ma R. A prediction nomogram for deep venous thrombosis risk in patients undergoing primary total hip and knee arthroplasty: a retrospective study. Thromb J 2023; 21:106. [PMID: 37828566 PMCID: PMC10568791 DOI: 10.1186/s12959-023-00538-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2022] [Accepted: 08/30/2023] [Indexed: 10/14/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Deep venous thrombosis (DVT) prediction after total hip and knee arthroplasty remains challenging. Early diagnosis and treatment of DVT are crucial. This research aimed to develop a nomogram for early DVT prediction. METHODS A total of 317 patients undergoing primary total hip and knee arthroplasty in Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital were enrolled between May 2020 and September 2022. Data from May 2020 to February 2022 were used as the development datasets to build the nomogram model (n = 238). Using multivariate logistic regression, independent variables and a nomogram for predicting the occurrence of DVT were identified. Datasets used to validate the model for internal validation ranged from March 2022 to September 2022 (n = 79). The nomogram's capacity for prediction was also compared with the Caprini score. RESULTS For both the development and validation datasets, DVT was found in a total of 38 (15.97%) and 9 patients (11.39%) on post-operative day 7 (pod7), respectively. 59.6% patients were symptomatic DVT (leg swelling). The multivariate analysis revealed that surgical site (Knee vs. Hip), leg swelling and thrombin-antithrombin complex (TAT) were associated with DVT. The previously indicated variables were used to build the nomogram, and for the development and validation datasets, respectively. In development and validation datasets, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.836 and 0.957, respectively. In both datasets, the predictive value of the Nomogram is greater than the Caprini score. CONCLUSIONS A proposed nomogram incorporating surgical site (Knee vs. Hip), leg swelling, and thrombin antithrombin complex (TAT) may facilitate the identification of patients who are more prone to develop DVT on pod7.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhencan Lin
- Department of Orthopedics, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong China, 510120, China
- Department of Orthopedics, The Eighth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Shenzhen, Guangdong China, 518000, China
| | - Hao Sun
- Department of Orthopedics, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong China, 510120, China
| | - Deng Li
- Department of Orthopedics, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong China, 510120, China
| | - Zhiqing Cai
- Department of Orthopedics, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong China, 510120, China
| | - Zhencheng Huang
- Department of Orthopedics, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong China, 510120, China
- Department of Orthopedics, The Eighth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Shenzhen, Guangdong China, 518000, China
| | - Fangzhou Liu
- Department of Orthopedics, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong China, 510120, China
| | - Meiyi Chen
- Department of Orthopedics, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong China, 510120, China
| | - Yimin Wang
- Department of Orthopedics, The Eighth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Shenzhen, Guangdong China, 518000, China.
| | - Jie Xu
- Department of Orthopedics, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong China, 510120, China.
| | - Ruofan Ma
- Department of Orthopedics, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong China, 510120, China.
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