1
|
Dawson LP, Andrew E, Nehme Z, Bloom J, Liew D, Cox S, Anderson D, Stephenson M, Lefkovits J, Taylor AJ, Kaye D, Cullen L, Smith K, Stub D. Development and validation of a comprehensive early risk prediction model for patients with undifferentiated acute chest pain. Int J Cardiol Heart Vasc 2022; 40:101043. [PMID: 35514876 PMCID: PMC9062672 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcha.2022.101043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2022] [Accepted: 04/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
Aims Existing risk scores for undifferentiated chest pain focus on excluding coronary events and do not represent a comprehensive risk assessment if an alternate serious diagnosis is present. This study aimed to develop and validate an all-inclusive risk prediction model among patients with undifferentiated chest pain. Methods We developed and validated a multivariable logistic regression model for a composite measure of early all-inclusive risk (defined as hospital admission excluding a discharge diagnosis of non-specific pain, 30-day all-cause mortality, or 30-day myocardial infarction [MI]) among adults assessed by emergency medical services (EMS) for non-traumatic chest pain using a large population-based cohort (January 2015 to June 2019). The cohort was randomly divided into development (146,507 patients [70%]) and validation (62,788 patients [30%]) cohorts. Results The composite outcome occurred in 28.4%, comprising hospital admission in 27.7%, mortality within 30-days in 1.8%, and MI within 30-days in 0.4%. The Early Chest pain Admission, MI, and Mortality (ECAMM) risk model was developed, demonstrating good discrimination in the development (C-statistic 0.775, 95% CI 0.772-0.777) and validation cohorts (C-statistic 0.765, 95% CI 0.761-0.769) with excellent calibration. Discriminatory performance for the composite outcome and individual components was higher than existing scores commonly used in undifferentiated chest pain risk stratification. Conclusions The ECAMM risk score model can be used as an all-inclusive risk stratification assessment of patients with non-traumatic chest pain without the limitation of a single diagnostic outcome. This model could be clinically useful to help guide decisions surrounding the need for non-coronary investigations and safety of early discharge.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Luke P. Dawson
- Department of Cardiology, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Cardiology, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Emily Andrew
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Ambulance Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ziad Nehme
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Ambulance Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Paramedicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jason Bloom
- Department of Cardiology, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- The Baker Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Danny Liew
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Shelley Cox
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Ambulance Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - David Anderson
- Ambulance Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Michael Stephenson
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Ambulance Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Paramedicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jeffrey Lefkovits
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Cardiology, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Andrew J. Taylor
- Department of Cardiology, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Medicine, Monash University, Victoria, Australia
| | - David Kaye
- Department of Cardiology, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- The Baker Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Louise Cullen
- Emergency and Trauma Centre, Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Karen Smith
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Ambulance Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Paramedicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Dion Stub
- Department of Cardiology, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- The Baker Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| |
Collapse
|