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Nishida N, Ohashi J, Suda G, Chiyoda T, Tamaki N, Tomiyama T, Ogasawara S, Sugiyama M, Kawai Y, Khor SS, Nagasaki M, Fujimoto A, Tsuchiura T, Ishikawa M, Matsuda K, Yano H, Yoshizumi T, Izumi N, Hasegawa K, Sakamoto N, Mizokami M, Tokunaga K. Prediction Model with HLA-A*33:03 Reveals Number of Days to Develop Liver Cancer from Blood Test. Int J Mol Sci 2023; 24:ijms24054761. [PMID: 36902191 PMCID: PMC10003621 DOI: 10.3390/ijms24054761] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2022] [Revised: 02/23/2023] [Accepted: 02/28/2023] [Indexed: 03/06/2023] Open
Abstract
The development of liver cancer in patients with hepatitis B is a major problem, and several models have been reported to predict the development of liver cancer. However, no predictive model involving human genetic factors has been reported to date. For the items incorporated in the prediction model reported so far, we selected items that were significant in predicting liver carcinogenesis in Japanese patients with hepatitis B and constructed a prediction model of liver carcinogenesis by the Cox proportional hazard model with the addition of Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) genotypes. The model, which included four items-sex, age at the time of examination, alpha-fetoprotein level (log10AFP) and presence or absence of HLA-A*33:03-revealed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.862 for HCC prediction within 1 year and an AUROC of 0.863 within 3 years. A 1000 repeated validation test resulted in a C-index of 0.75 or higher, or sensitivity of 0.70 or higher, indicating that this predictive model can distinguish those at high risk of developing liver cancer within a few years with high accuracy. The prediction model constructed in this study, which can distinguish between chronic hepatitis B patients who develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) early and those who develop HCC late or not, is clinically meaningful.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nao Nishida
- Genome Medical Science Project, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Ichikawa 272-8516, Japan
- Department of Genomic Function and Diversity, Medical Research Institute, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo 113-8510, Japan
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +81-473723501
| | - Jun Ohashi
- Department of Biological Sciences, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan
| | - Goki Suda
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, North 15, West 7, Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-8638, Japan
| | - Takehiro Chiyoda
- Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Division, Department of Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8655, Japan
| | - Nobuharu Tamaki
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Musashino Red Cross Hospital, Musashino 180-8610, Japan
| | - Takahiro Tomiyama
- Department of Surgery and Science, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 812-8582, Japan
| | - Sachiko Ogasawara
- Department of Pathology, Kurume University School of Medicine, Kurume 830-0011, Japan
| | - Masaya Sugiyama
- Department of Viral Pathogenesis and Controls, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Ichikawa 272-8516, Japan
| | - Yosuke Kawai
- Genome Medical Science Project-Toyama, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo 162-8655, Japan
| | - Seik-Soon Khor
- Genome Medical Science Project-Toyama, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo 162-8655, Japan
| | - Masao Nagasaki
- Human Biosciences Unit for the Top Global Course Center for the Promotion of Interdisciplinary Education and Research, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8507, Japan
| | - Akihiro Fujimoto
- Department of Human Genetics, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0003, Japan
| | - Takayo Tsuchiura
- Genome Medical Science Project, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Ichikawa 272-8516, Japan
| | - Miyuki Ishikawa
- Genome Medical Science Project, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Ichikawa 272-8516, Japan
| | - Koichi Matsuda
- Laboratory of Clinical Genome Sequencing, Department of Computational Biology and Medical Sciences, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 108-8639, Japan
| | - Hirohisa Yano
- Department of Pathology, Kurume University School of Medicine, Kurume 830-0011, Japan
| | - Tomoharu Yoshizumi
- Department of Surgery and Science, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 812-8582, Japan
| | - Namiki Izumi
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Musashino Red Cross Hospital, Musashino 180-8610, Japan
| | - Kiyoshi Hasegawa
- Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Division, Department of Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8655, Japan
| | - Naoya Sakamoto
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, North 15, West 7, Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-8638, Japan
| | - Masashi Mizokami
- Genome Medical Science Project, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Ichikawa 272-8516, Japan
| | - Katsushi Tokunaga
- Genome Medical Science Project-Toyama, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo 162-8655, Japan
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Wan L, Yang G, Zou LP, Wang J, Shi XY, Ren WH, Lu Q. [Factors in first-time adrenocorticotropic hormone therapy and their influence on spasm control time in infantile spasms: a Cox proportional-hazards regression model analysis]. Zhongguo Dang Dai Er Ke Za Zhi 2019; 21:845-50. [PMID: 31506140 DOI: 10.7499/j.issn.1008-8830.2019.09.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To investigate the factors in first-time adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) therapy and their influence on spasm control time in infants with infantile spasms. METHODS A total of 72 infants with infantile spasms who were admitted from January 2008 to October 2013 were enrolled. Their clinical data were collected, and the exposure factors for infantile spasms were selected. A Cox proportional-hazards regression model analysis was performed for these factors to analyze their influence on spasm control time. RESULTS Clarification of the etiology (known or unexplained etiology), frequency of spasms before treatment, and presence or absence of combination therapy (ACTH used alone or in combination with magnesium sulfate) had a significant influence on spasm control time in infants with infantile spasms. The infants with a known etiology had a significantly shorter spasm control time than those with unexplained etiology, and the infants with a low frequency of spasms before treatment and receiving ACTH combined with magnesium sulfate early had a significantly longer spasm control time than their counterparts (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS For infants with infantile spasms at initial diagnosis, etiology should be clarified, which may helpful for evaluating prognosis. A combination of ACTH and magnesium sulfate should be given as soon as possible, which may improve their prognosis.
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