Human Crowds as Social Networks: Collective Dynamics of Consensus and Polarization

A ubiquitous type of collective behavior and decision-making is the coordinated motion of bird flocks, fish schools, and human crowds. Collective decisions to move in the same direction, turn right or left, or split into subgroups arise in a self-organized fashion from local interactions between individuals without central plans or designated leaders. Strikingly similar phenomena of consensus (collective motion), clustering (subgroup formation), and bipolarization (splitting into extreme groups) are also observed in opinion formation. As we developed models of crowd dynamics and analyzed crowd networks, we found ourselves going down the same path as models of opinion dynamics in social networks. In this article, we draw out the parallels between human crowds and social networks. We show that models of crowd dynamics and opinion dynamics have a similar mathematical form and generate analogous phenomena in multiagent simulations. We suggest that they can be unified by a common collective dynamics, which may be extended to other psychological collectives. Models of collective dynamics thus offer a means to account for collective behavior and collective decisions without appealing to a priori mental structures.

From Microscopic Droplets to Macroscopic Crowds: Crossing the Scales in Models of Short-Range Respiratory Disease Transmission, with Application to COVID-19

Short-range exposure to airborne virus-laden respiratory droplets is an effective transmission route of respiratory diseases, as exemplified by Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). In order to assess the risks associated with this pathway in daily-life settings involving tens to hundreds of individuals, the chasm needs to be bridged between fluid dynamical simulations and population-scale epidemiological models. This is achieved by simulating droplet trajectories at the microscale in numerous ambient flows, coarse-graining their results into spatio-temporal maps of viral concentration around the emitter, and coupling these maps to field-data about pedestrian crowds in different scenarios (streets, train stations, markets, queues, and street cafés). At the individual scale, the results highlight the paramount importance of the velocity of the ambient air flow relative to the emitter's motion. This aerodynamic effect, which disperses infectious aerosols, prevails over all other environmental variables. At the crowd's scale, the method yields a ranking of the scenarios by the risks of new infections, dominated by the street cafés and then the outdoor market. While the effect of light winds on the qualitative ranking is fairly marginal, even the most modest air flows dramatically lower the quantitative rates of new infections.

Is the neighborhood of interaction in human crowds metric, topological, or visual?

Global patterns of collective motion in bird flocks, fish schools, and human crowds are thought to emerge from local interactions within a neighborhood of interaction, the zone in which an individual is influenced by their neighbors. Both metric and topological neighborhoods have been reported in animal groups, but this question has not been addressed for human crowds. The answer has important implications for modeling crowd behavior and predicting crowd disasters such as jams, crushes, and stampedes. In a metric neighborhood, an individual is influenced by all neighbors within a fixed radius, whereas in a topological neighborhood, an individual is influenced by a fixed number of nearest neighbors, regardless of their physical distance. A recently proposed alternative is a visual neighborhood, in which an individual is influenced by the optical motions of all visible neighbors. We test these hypotheses experimentally by asking participants to walk in real and virtual crowds and manipulating the crowd's density. Our results rule out a topological neighborhood, are approximated by a metric neighborhood, but are best explained by a visual neighborhood that has elements of both. We conclude that the neighborhood of interaction in human crowds follows naturally from the laws of optics and suggest that previously observed "topological" and "metric" interactions might be a consequence of the visual neighborhood.

Implementation of Congestion-Related Controls Improves Runner Density, Flow Rate, Perceived Safety, and Satisfaction during an Australian Running Event

This study examined the impact of congestion-related controls on runner density, flow rate, perceived safety, and satisfaction during an Australian running event. Runner congestion was compared between races organized at the Sunshine Coast Marathon and Running Festival in 2019 without controls and in 2021 with added controls, including modifications to the start corral design and use of wave starts. Following a mixed-method design, runner congestion was quantitatively measured via determining runner density and flow rate in the start corrals with video analyses, while post-event surveys were used to gather qualitative evidence regarding the prevalence of congestion and its impact on runner safety and satisfaction. Descriptive analyses for quantitative data showed runner density (1.48−3.01 vs. 0.52−1.20 runners per m2) and flow rate (102−152 vs. 36−59 runners per min per m) were reduced across races with controls. Regarding qualitative data, Wilcoxon−Mann−Whitney rank-sum tests demonstrated a significantly (p < 0.01) lower prevalence of congestion was perceived on course while running, alongside a reduced (p = 0.08) perceived impact of congestion on event satisfaction across races with controls. Furthermore, descriptive analyses for qualitative data showed a reduced proportion of runners indicated the start corrals were “somewhat” to “extremely” (rating of at least 3 on a 5-point scale) congested upon race commencement with controls (64% vs. 75%), and perceived safety (10% vs. 17%) and satisfaction (17% vs. 30%) were “somewhat” to “extremely” impacted by congestion across races with controls. Adopting suitable start corral designs with wave starts may enable race directors to reduce runner congestion to enhance continued participation among the public and viability of their running events.

The visual coupling between neighbours explains local interactions underlying human 'flocking'

Patterns of collective motion in bird flocks, fish schools and human crowds are believed to emerge from local interactions between individuals. Most 'flocking' models attribute these local interactions to hypothetical rules or metaphorical forces and assume an omniscient third-person view of the positions and velocities of all individuals in space. We develop a visual model of collective motion in human crowds based on the visual coupling that governs pedestrian interactions from a first-person embedded viewpoint. Specifically, humans control their walking speed and direction by cancelling the average angular velocity and optical expansion/contraction of their neighbours, weighted by visibility (1 - occlusion). We test the model by simulating data from experiments with virtual crowds and real human 'swarms'. The visual model outperforms our previous omniscient model and explains basic properties of interaction: 'repulsion' forces reduce to cancelling optical expansion, 'attraction' forces to cancelling optical contraction and 'alignment' to cancelling the combination of expansion/contraction and angular velocity. Moreover, the neighbourhood of interaction follows from Euclid's Law of perspective and the geometry of occlusion. We conclude that the local interactions underlying human flocking are a natural consequence of the laws of optics. Similar perceptual principles may apply to collective motion in other species.

Robust weighted averaging accounts for recruitment into collective motion in human crowds

Agent-based models of 'flocking' and 'schooling' have shown that a weighted average of neighbor velocities, with weights that decay gradually with distance, yields emergent collective motion. Weighted averaging thus offers a potential mechanism of self-organization that recruits an increasing, but self-limiting, number of individuals into collective motion. Previously, we identified and modeled such a 'soft metric' neighborhood of interaction in human crowds that decays exponentially to zero at a distance of 4-5m. Here we investigate the limits of weighted averaging in humans and find that it is surprisingly robust: pedestrians align with the mean heading direction in their neighborhood, despite high levels of noise and diverging motions in the crowd, as predicted by the model. In three Virtual Reality experiments, participants were immersed in a crowd of virtual humans in a mobile head-mounted display and were instructed to walk with the crowd. By perturbing the heading (walking direction) of virtual neighbors and measuring the participant's trajectory, we probed the limits of weighted averaging. (1) In the 'Noisy Neighbors' experiment, the neighbor headings were randomized (range 0-90°) about the crowd's mean direction (±10° or ±20°, left or right); (2) in the 'Splitting Crowd' experiment, the crowd split into two groups (heading difference = 10-40°) and the proportion of the crowd in one group was varied (50-84%); (3) in the 'Coherent Subgroup' experiment, a perturbed subgroup varied in its coherence (heading SD = 0-2°) about a mean direction (±10° or ±20°) within a noisy crowd (heading range = 180°), and the proportion of the crowd in the subgroup was varied. In each scenario, the results were predicted by the weighted averaging model, and attraction strength (turning rate) increased with the participant's deviation from the mean heading direction, not with group coherence. However, the results indicate that humans ignore highly discrepant headings (45-90°). These findings reveal that weighted averaging in humans is highly robust and generates a common heading direction that acts as a positive feedback to recruit more individuals into collective motion, in a self-reinforcing cascade. Therefore, this 'soft' metric neighborhood serves as a mechanism of self-organization in human crowds.

Self-Organized Crowd Dynamics: Research on Earthquake Emergency Response Patterns of Drill-Trained Individuals Based on GIS and Multi-Agent Systems Methodology

Predicting evacuation patterns is useful in emergency management situations such as an earthquake. To find out how pre-trained individuals interact with one another to achieve their own goal to reach the exit as fast as possible firstly, we investigated urban people's evacuation behavior under earthquake disaster coditions, established crowd response rules in emergencies, and described the drill strategy and exit familiarity quantitatively through a cellular automata model. By setting different exit familiarity ratios, simulation experiments under different strategies were conducted to predict people's reactions before an emergency. The corresponding simulation results indicated that the evacuees' training level could affect a multi-exit zone's evacuation pattern and clearance time. Their exit choice preferences may disrupt the exit options' balance, leading to congestion in some of the exits. Secondly, due to people's rejection of long distances, congestion, and unfamiliar exits, some people would hesitant about the evacuation direction during the evacuation process. This hesitation would also significantly reduce the overall evacuation efficiency. Finally, taking a community in Zhuhai City, China, as an example, put forward the best urban evacuation drill strategy. The quantitative relation between exit familiar level and evacuation efficiency was obtained. The final results showed that the optimized evacuation plan could improve evacuation's overall efficiency through the self-organization effect. These studies may have some impact on predicting crowd behavior during evacuation and designing the evacuation plan.

A system for efficient egress scheduling during mass events and small-scale experimental demonstration

Improvements in the design of pedestrian facilities have reduced the frequency of crowd accidents, and safety is now generally ensured in well-planned crowd events. However, congestion and inefficient use of infrastructures still remain an issue. To guarantee comfort and reduce close contacts between people, there are circumstances when crowd density may have to be reduced well below safety limits. Although research has given a lot of attention to extreme scenarios, methods to improve non-critical conditions have been little explored. In addition, crowd sensing technology is still mostly used for data collection and direct use on crowd management is rare. In this work, we present a system aimed at computing optimal egress time for groups of people leaving a complex facility. We show that, if egress starting time is accurately computed for each group based on actual crowd conditions, density can be greatly reduced without having a large effect on the total egress time of the whole crowd. To show the efficacy of such a system, a small-scale experiment is conducted where all components are tested in a simple scenario. As a result, an increase in total egress time by only 5% allowed to reduce maximum density by 35%.

Local interactions underlying collective motion in human crowds

It is commonly believed that global patterns of motion in flocks, schools and crowds emerge from local interactions between individuals, through a process of self-organization. The key to explaining such collective behaviour thus lies in deciphering these local interactions. We take an experiment-driven approach to modelling collective motion in human crowds. Previously, we observed that a pedestrian aligns their velocity vector (speed and heading direction) with that of a neighbour. Here we investigate the neighbourhood of interaction in a crowd: which neighbours influence a pedestrian's behaviour, how this depends on neighbour position, and how the influences of multiple neighbours are combined. In three experiments, a participant walked in a virtual crowd whose speed and heading were manipulated. We find that neighbour influence is linearly combined and decreases with distance, but not with lateral position (eccentricity). We model the neighbourhood as (i) a circularly symmetric region with (ii) a weighted average of neighbours, (iii) a uni-directional influence, and (iv) weights that decay exponentially to zero by 5 m. The model reproduces the experimental data and predicts individual trajectories in observational data on a human 'swarm'. The results yield the first bottom-up model of collective crowd motion.

Follow the leader: visual control of speed in pedestrian following

When people walk together in groups or crowds they must coordinate their walking speed and direction with their neighbors. This paper investigates how a pedestrian visually controls speed when following a leader on a straight path (one-dimensional following). To model the behavioral dynamics of following, participants in Experiment 1 walked behind a confederate who randomly increased or decreased his walking speed. The data were used to test six models of speed control that used the leader's speed, distance, or combinations of both to regulate the follower's acceleration. To test the optical information used to control speed, participants in Experiment 2 walked behind a virtual moving pole, whose visual angle and binocular disparity were independently manipulated. The results indicate the followers match the speed of the leader, and do so using a visual control law that primarily nulls the leader's optical expansion (change in visual angle), with little influence of change in disparity. This finding has direct applications to understanding the coordination among neighbors in human crowds.