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Sambo B, Bonato M, Sperotto A, Torresan S, Furlan E, Lambert JH, Linkov I, Critto A. Framework for multirisk climate scenarios across system receptors with application to the Metropolitan City of Venice. Risk Anal 2023; 43:2241-2261. [PMID: 36690591 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14097] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2022] [Revised: 09/08/2022] [Accepted: 12/29/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Climate change influences the frequency of extreme events that affect both human and natural systems. It requires systemic climate change adaptation to address the complexity of risks across multiple domains and tackle the uncertainties of future scenarios. This paper introduces a multirisk analysis of climate hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk severity, specifically designed to hotspot geographic locations and prioritize system receptors that are affected by climate-related extremes. The analysis is demonstrated for the Metropolitan City of Venice. Representative scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of climate threats (i.e., storm surges, pluvial flood, heat waves, and drought) are selected and represented by projections of Regional Climate Models for a 30-year period (2021-2050). A sample of results is as follows. First, an increase in the risk is largely due to drought, pluvial flood, and storm surge, depending on the areas of interest, with the overall situation worsening under the RCP8.5 scenario. Second, particular locations have colocated vulnerable receptors at higher risk, concentrated in the urban centers (e.g., housing, railways, roads) and along the coast (e.g., beaches, wetlands, primary sector). Third, risk communication of potential environmental and socio-economic losses via the multirisk maps is useful to stakeholders and public administration. Fourth, the multirisk maps recommend priorities for future investigation and risk management, such as collection of sensor data, elaboration of mitigations, and adaptation plans at hotspot locations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Beatrice Sambo
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University of Ca' Foscari, Venice, Italy
- RAAS division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Fondazione CMCC), Lecce, Italy
| | - Marta Bonato
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University of Ca' Foscari, Venice, Italy
- Department Computational Landscape Ecology, UFZ - Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Anna Sperotto
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University of Ca' Foscari, Venice, Italy
- Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3) Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, Biscay, Spain
| | - Silvia Torresan
- RAAS division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Fondazione CMCC), Lecce, Italy
| | - Elisa Furlan
- RAAS division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Fondazione CMCC), Lecce, Italy
| | - James H Lambert
- Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA
| | - Igor Linkov
- Engineer Research and Development Center, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Concord, Massachusetts, USA
- Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Andrea Critto
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University of Ca' Foscari, Venice, Italy
- RAAS division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Fondazione CMCC), Lecce, Italy
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Adrian Teetz. „Ein Social-Media-Post ist kein Projektil“ – Konzeptionelle Herausforderungen durch Desinformation. Z Außen Sicherheitspolit 2023. [ DOI: 10.1007/s12399-023-00937-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
Das sicherheitspolitische Paradigma der „Hybriden Bedrohungen“ zählt Desinformationsaktivitäten zum Arsenal internationaler „Grauzonenkonflikte“ unterhalb der Schwelle des bewaffneten Angriffs. Demokratische Staaten geraten damit in das Paradox, ihre Öffentlichkeit als Plattform der Meinungs- und Willensbildung gegen feindselige Interventionen zu verteidigen, ohne in deren konstitutive Freiheitlichkeit einzugreifen. Dies stellt die staatliche Gefahrenabwehr vor neue konzeptionelle Herausforderungen.
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