A Clinical Risk Model for Personalized Screening and Prevention of Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

Image-derived artificial intelligence (AI) risk models have shown promise in identifying high-risk women in the short term. The long-term performance of image-derived risk models expanded with clinical factors has not been investigated.

METHODS

We performed a case-cohort study of 8110 women aged 40-74 randomly selected from a Swedish mammography screening cohort initiated in 2010 together with 1661 incident BCs diagnosed before January 2022. The imaging-only AI risk model extracted mammographic features and age at screening. Additional lifestyle/familial risk factors were incorporated into the lifestyle/familial-expanded AI model. Absolute risks were calculated using the two models and the clinical Tyrer-Cuzick v8 model. Age-adjusted model performances were compared across the 10-year follow-up.

RESULTS

The AUCs of the lifestyle/familial-expanded AI risk model ranged from 0.75 (95%CI: 0.70-0.80) to 0.68 (95%CI: 0.66-0.69) 1-10 years after study entry. Corresponding AUCs were 0.72 (95%CI: 0.66-0.78) to 0.65 (95%CI: 0.63-0.66) for the imaging-only model and 0.62 (95%CI: 0.55-0.68) to 0.60 (95%CI: 0.58-0.61) for Tyrer-Cuzick v8. The increased performances were observed in multiple risk subgroups and cancer subtypes. Among the 5% of women at highest risk, the PPV was 5.8% using the lifestyle/familial-expanded model compared with 5.3% using the imaging-only model, p < 0.01, and 4.6% for Tyrer-Cuzick, p < 0.01.

CONCLUSIONS

The lifestyle/familial-expanded AI risk model showed higher performance for both long-term and short-term risk assessment compared with imaging-only and Tyrer-Cuzick models.

Long-term mortality, cardiovascular events, and bleeding in stable patients 1 year after myocardial infarction: a Danish nationwide study

AIMS

Outcomes after myocardial infarction (MI) improved during recent decades alongside better risk factor management and implementation of guideline-recommended treatments. However, it is unknown whether this applies to stable patients who are event-free 1 year after MI.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using nationwide Danish registries, we included all patients with first-time MI during 2000-17 who survived 1 year free from bleeding and cardiovascular events (n = 82 108, median age 64 years, 68.2% male). Follow-up started 1 year after MI and continued through January 2022. Crude risks of mortality, cardiovascular events, and bleeding were estimated in consecutive 3-year periods. Standardized risks were calculated with respect to the distribution of age, sex, comorbidities, and treatments in the latter period. Guideline-recommended treatment use increased during the study period: e.g. statins (68.6-92.5%) and percutaneous coronary intervention (23.9-68.2%). The crude 5-year risks of outcomes decreased (all P-trend <0.001): Mortality, 18.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.9-19.2) to 12.5% (CI: 11.9-13.1); Recurrent MI, 7.5% (CI: 7.1-8.0) to 5.5% (CI: 5.1-6.0); Bleeding, 3.9% (CI: 3.6-4.3) to 2.7% (CI: 2.4-3.0). Crude 5-year risk of mortality in 2015-17 was as low as 2.6% for patients aged <60 years. Use of guideline-recommended treatments was associated with improved outcomes: After standardization for changes in treatments, 5-year risk of mortality in 2000-02 was 15.5% (CI: 14.9-16.2).

CONCLUSIONS

For patients who were event-free 1 year after MI, the long-term risks of mortality, cardiovascular events, and bleeding decreased significantly, along with an improved use of guideline-recommended treatments between 2000 and 2017. In the most recent period, 1 year after MI, the risk of additional events was lower than previously reported.

Long-Term Follow-Up on Morbidity Among Women With a History of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) complicates up to 10% of pregnancies and is a well-known risk factor for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease. Little is known about possible long-term risks of other diseases.

BACKGROUND

The aim was to review the literature for evidence of associations with morbidity other than T2DM and cardiovascular disease and with long-term mortality.

METHODS

A systematic review based on searches in Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Library until March 31, 2021, using a broad range of keywords. We extracted study characteristics and results on associations between GDM and disease occurrence at least 10 years postpartum, excluding studies on women with diabetes prior to pregnancy or only diabetes prior to outcome. The results are reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to assess risk of bias.

RESULTS

We screened 3084 titles, 81 articles were assessed full-text, and 15 included in the review. The strongest evidence for an association was for kidney diseases, particularly in Black women. We found indication of an association with liver disease, possibly restricted to women with T2DM postpartum. The association between GDM and breast cancer had been studied extensively, but in most cases based on self-reported diagnosis and with conflicting results. Only sparse and inconsistent results were found for other cancers. No study on thyroid diseases was found, and no study reported on short-term or long-term mortality in women with a history of GDM.

CONCLUSION

Given the frequency of GDM, there is a need for better evidence on possible long-term health consequences, in particular, studies based on comprehensive records of diagnosis of GDM and long-term health outcomes.

Antipsychotic Medication Risk of Dementia and Death: A Propensity Matched Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare the incidence of dementia and all-cause mortality up to 20 years post-treatment in an index non-demented cohort between antipsychotic (AP) medication treatment and non-AP treatment groups.

METHOD

All patients in Kaiser Permanente Northern California with a major psychiatric diagnosis between 01/01/1996 and 12/31/2000, age ≥ 50 years, and without dementia diagnosis were included. The study cohort was divided into a "user group", patients treated with AP for ≥ 365 days (n = 1,829), and a "non-user group", propensity score matched on age, sex, and race (n = 9,145). The association between AP exposure and dementia or mortality during the follow-up period (01/01/2001-12/31/2015) was evaluated using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for psychiatric diagnosis, comorbidities, and other medications. The user group had a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.2 (CI 1.8-2.7) for dementia and 1.3 (CI 1.2-1.5) for death. The onset of dementia in the user group was significantly higher in patients aged ≤ 65 years (p < 0.001). The user group was sub-grouped into atypical, typical, and both; HR for dementia was 1.7 (CI 1.2-2.4), 2.5 (CI 1.9-3.1), and 1.8 (CI 1.4-2.4), respectively.

RESULT

Dementia and mortality were significantly higher in patients concurrently treated with benzodiazepine (HR 1.3; CI 1.2-1.5 and HR 1.4; CI 1.3-1.5) or tricyclic antidepressants (HR 1.2; CI 1.1-1.4 and HR 1.1; CI 1.0-1.2), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our preliminary results reveal an association between AP treatment and increased rates of both dementia and mortality. Future research is needed to substantiate our current findings.

Living Kidney Donor Knowledge of Provided Information and Informed Consent: The PRINCE Study

Background: Informed consent for living kidney donation is paramount, as donors are healthy individuals undergoing surgery for the benefit of others. The informed consent process for living kidney donors is heterogenous, and the question concerns how well they are actually informed. Knowledge assessments, before and after donor education, can form the basis for a standardized informed consent procedure for live kidney donation. Methods: In this prospective, a multicenter national cohort study conducted in all eight kidney transplant centers in The Netherlands, we assessed the current status of the informed consent practice for live donor nephrectomy. All of the potential living kidney donors in the participating centers were invited to participate. They completed a pop quiz during their first outpatient appointment (Cohort A). Living kidney donors completed the same pop quiz upon admission for donor nephrectomy (Cohort B). Results: In total, 656 pop quizzes were completed (417 in Cohort A, and 239 in Cohort B). The average donor knowledge score was 7.0/25.0 (±3.9, range 0–18) in Cohort A, and 10.5/25.0 (±2.8, range 0–17.5) in Cohort B. Cohort B scored significantly higher on overall knowledge, preparedness, and the individual item scores (p < 0.0001), except for the long-term complications (p = 0.91). Conclusions: Donor knowledge generally improves during the live donor workup, but it is still quite disappointing. Long-term complications, especially, deserve more attention during living kidney donor education.

Type 1 diabetes-related autoimmune antibodies in women with gestational diabetes mellitus and the long-term risk for glucose intolerance

AIMS

To characterize women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) positive for type 1 diabetes-related autoimmune antibodies (T1D-related autoantibodies) in pregnancy and to evaluate their risk for long-term glucose intolerance.

METHODS

In a multi-centric prospective cohort study with 1843 women receiving universal screening for GDM with a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), autoantibodies were measured in women with GDM: insulin autoantibodies (IAA), islet cell antibodies (ICA), insulinoma-associated protein-2 antibodies (IA-2A) and glutamic acid decarboxylase antibodies (GADA). Long-term follow-up ( ± 4.6 years after delivery) with a 75 g OGTT and re-measurement of autoantibodies was done in women with a history of GDM and autoantibody positivity in pregnancy.

RESULTS

Of all women with GDM (231), 80.5% (186) received autoantibody measurement at a mean of 26.2 weeks in pregnancy, of which 8.1% (15) had one positive antibody (seven with IAA, two with ICA, four with IA-2A and two with GADA). Characteristics in pregnancy were similar but compared to women without autoantibodies, women with autoantibodies had more often gestational hypertension [33.3% (5) vs. 1.7% (3), p<0.001] and more often neonatal hypoglycemia [40.0% (6) vs. 12.5% (19), p=0.012]. Among 14 of the 15 autoantibody positive women with an early postpartum OGTT, two had impaired fasting glucose (IFG). Of the 12 women with long-term follow-up data, four tested again positive for T1D-related autoantibodies (three positive for IA-2A and one positive for ICA and IAA). Five women were glucose intolerant at the long-term follow-up of which two had IA-2A (one had IFG and one had T1D) and three without autoantibodies. There were no significant differences in long-term characteristics between women with and without autoantibodies postpartum.

CONCLUSIONS

Systematic screening for T1D-related autoantibodies in GDM does not seem warranted since the low positivity rate for autoantibodies in pregnancy and postpartum. At 4.6 years postpartum, five out of 12 women were glucose intolerant but only two still had autoantibodies. In women with clinically significant increased autoantibody levels during pregnancy, postpartum autoantibody re-measurement seems useful since the high risk for further increase of autoantibody levels.

Risk of Neurological Disorders in Patients With European Lyme Neuroborreliosis: A Nationwide, Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Lyme neuroborreliosis (LNB), caused by the tick-borne spirochetes of the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato species complex, has been suggested to be associated with a range of neurological disorders. In a nationwide, population-based cohort study, we examined the associations between LNB and dementia, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, motor neuron disease, epilepsy, and Guillain-Barré syndrome.

METHODS

We used national registers to identify all Danish residents diagnosed during 1986-2016 with LNB (n = 2067), created a gender- and age-matched comparison cohort from the general population (n = 20 670), and calculated risk estimates and hazard ratios.

RESULTS

We observed no long-term increased risks of dementia, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, motor neuron diseases, or epilepsy. However, within the first year, 8 (0.4%) of the LNB patients developed epilepsy, compared with 20 (0.1%) of the comparison cohort (difference, 0.3%; 95% confidence interval, .02-.6%). In the LNB group, 11 (0.5%) patients were diagnosed with Guillain-Barré syndrome within the first year after LNB diagnosis, compared with 0 (0.0%) in the comparison cohort. After the first year, the risk of Guillain-Barré was not increased.

CONCLUSIONS

LNB patients did not have increased long-term risks of dementia, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, motor neuron diseases, epilepsy, or Guillain-Barré. Although the absolute risk is low, LNB patients might have an increased short-term risk of epilepsy and Guillain-Barré syndrome.

Long-term risk of tuberculosis among migrants according to migrant status: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

The majority of tuberculosis (TB) cases in low-incidence countries occur in migrants. Only few studies have assessed the long-term TB risk in migrants after immigration, and datasets have not considered this across a range of diverse migrant groups. This nationwide study aimed to investigate long-term TB risk among migrants according to migrant status and region of origin.

METHODS

This cohort study included all migrants aged  ≥ 18 years who obtained residence in Denmark from 1993 to 2015, with a mean follow-up of 10.8 years [standard deviation (SD) 7.3]. Migrants were categorized based on legal status of residence and region of origin. Incidence rates (IR) and rate ratios (IRR) were estimated by Poisson regression.

RESULTS

A total of 142 314 migrants were included. Across all migrants, the TB risk was highest during year 1 of residence (IR 275/100 000 person-years; 95% CI 249-305) followed by a gradual decline, though TB risk remained high for over a decade. Compared with the Danish-born population, the IRRs after 7-8 years were particularly higher among former asylum seekers (IRR 31; 95% CI 20-46), quota refugees (IRR 31; 95% CI 16-71), and family-reunified with refugees (IRR 22; 95% CI 12-44). Sub-Saharan African migrants also experienced elevated risk (IRR 75; 95% CI 51-109). The proportion of migrants with pulmonary TB was 52.4%.

CONCLUSION

All migrant groups experienced an initial high TB risk, but long-term risk remained high in key migrant groups. Most European countries focus TB screening on or soon after arrival. Our study suggests that approaches to TB screening should be adapted, with migrant populations benefiting from long-term access to preventive health services.

The Brief Suicide Cognitions Scale: Development and Clinical Application

The study explored the development of the Brief Suicide Cognitions Scale (B-SCS), a simple and brief measure of suicide risk. The B-SCS provides a brief measure that captures critical aspects of suicide risk embedded in core beliefs about the self as unlovable, one's emotional experience as unbearable, and life problems as unsolvable (i.e., the suicidal belief system), resulting in chronic or enduring suicide risk and heightened vulnerability for acute episodes secondary to internal and external triggers. Data were analyzed from three diverse samples, including a student sample (N = 349), an inpatient psychiatric sample (N = 160), and a sample of emergency department (ED) patients presenting secondary to a suicidal crisis (N = 94). Those in the student and inpatient samples completed additional symptom measures (hopelessness, anxiety, depression) and the ED sample provided 6-month follow-up data for suicide attempts. Reliability (internal consistency, test-retest), concurrent validity, construct (divergent, convergent) validity, factorial, incremental, and predictive validity were evaluated, along with calculation of predictive value of negative and positive tests, sensitivity, and specificity estimates. The B-SCS demonstrated good reliability and validity, a unidimensional factor structure across samples, along with good predictive validity and value in real-world clinical settings. The B-SCS is a brief, reliable and valid measure of suicide risk, with good ability to identify those with enduring risk for subsequent suicide attempts. The B-SCS offers a unique contribution to understanding and assessing the nature of suicide risk over time targeting the suicidal belief system, with easy application across inpatient and outpatient clinical settings, and good predictive value.

KDOQI US Commentary on the 2017 KDIGO Clinical Practice Guideline on the Evaluation and Care of Living Kidney Donors

Living kidney donation is widely practiced throughout the world. During the past 2 decades, various groups have provided guidance about the evaluation and care of living donors. However, during this time, our knowledge in the field has advanced substantially and many agreed on the need for a comprehensive, unifying document. KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) addressed this issue at an international level with the publication of its clinical practice guideline on the evaluation and care of living kidney donors. The KDIGO work group extensively reviewed the available literature and wrote a series of guideline recommendations using various degrees of evidence when available. As has become recent practice, NKF-KDOQI (National Kidney Foundation-Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative) convened a work group to provide a commentary on the KDIGO guideline, with a focus on how these recommendations apply in the context of the United States. In the United States, the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) guides and regulates the practice of living kidney donation. While the KDIGO guideline for the care of living kidney donors and UNOS policy are similar in most aspects of the care of living kidney donors, several important areas are not consistent or do not align with common practice by US transplantation programs in areas in which UNOS has not set specific policy. For the time being, and recognizing the value of the KDIGO guidelines, US transplantation programs should continue to follow UNOS policy.

Long-term Mortality Risks Among Living Kidney Donors in Korea

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Living kidney donors may have a higher risk for death and kidney failure. This study aimed to investigate the long-term mortality experience of living kidney donors compared with members of the general public in Korea who underwent voluntary health examinations.

STUDY DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

We first calculated standardized mortality ratios for 1,292 Korean living kidney donors who underwent donor nephrectomy between 1982 and 2016 and 72,286 individuals who underwent voluntary health examinations between 1995 and 2016. Next we compared survival between the 1,292 living kidney donors and a subgroup of the health examination population (n=33,805) who had no evident contraindications to living kidney donation at the time of their examinations. Last, a matched comparator group was created from the health examination population without apparent contraindication to donation by matching 4,387 of them to donors (n=1,237) on age, sex, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, urine dipstick albumin excretion, previously diagnosed hypertension and diabetes, and era.

EXPOSURES

Donor nephrectomy.

OUTCOMES

All-cause mortality and other clinical outcomes after kidney donation.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

First, standardized mortality ratios were calculated separately for living kidney donors and the health examination population standardized to the general population. Second, we used Cox regression analysis to compare mortality between living kidney donors versus the subgroup of the health examination population without evident donation contraindications. Third, we used Cox regression analysis to compare mortality between living kidney donors and matched comparators from the health examination population without apparent contraindication to donation.

RESULTS

The living kidney donors and health examination population had excellent survival rates compared with the general population. 52 (4.0%) of 1,292 kidney donors died during a mean follow-up of 12.3±8.1 years and 1,072 (3.2%) of 33,805 in the health examiner subgroup without donation contraindications died during a mean follow-up of 11.4±6.1 years. Donor nephrectomy did not elevate the hazard for mortality after multivariable adjustment in kidney donors and the 33,805 comparators (adjusted HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.71-1.44; P=0.9). Moreover, living donors showed a similar mortality rate compared with the group of matched healthy comparators.

LIMITATIONS

Donors from a single transplantation center. Residual confounding owing to the observational study design.

CONCLUSIONS

Kidney donors experienced long-term rates of death comparable to nondonor comparators with similar health status.

Long-term risk of stroke and its predictors in transient ischaemic attack patients in Germany

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Little is known about the long-term association between transient ischaemic attack (TIA) and stroke. Therefore, the goal of this study was to analyze the long-term risk of stroke and associated predictors in a large cohort of TIA patients followed in general practices in Germany.

METHODS

This study included patients with an initial TIA diagnosis and subsequently followed up in one of 1262 general practices in Germany between January 2007 and December 2016 (N = 19 824 patients). The primary outcome of the study was the risk of ischaemic stroke within 10 years of the initial diagnosis of TIA. The secondary outcome was the identification of demographic, clinical and pharmaceutical variables significantly associated with stroke in TIA patients.

RESULTS

Within 10 years of the initial TIA diagnosis, 18.3% of individuals were diagnosed with stroke. Age was positively associated with stroke, with hazard ratios ranging from 1.88 in patients aged 51-60 years to 4.00 in those aged >80 years (reference group: patients aged ≤50 years). Furthermore, male sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation and ischaemic heart diseases had an additional impact on the risk of stroke. Finally, new oral anticoagulants, heparins, diuretics, angiotensin II receptor blockers and platelet aggregation inhibitors were identified as protective factors.

CONCLUSIONS

In a cohort of almost 20 000 TIA patients, 18.3% were diagnosed with stroke within 10 years after the TIA index event. Several demographic, clinical and pharmaceutical variables significantly predicted the long-term risk of stroke in TIA patients.

Factors of post-stroke dementia: A nationwide cohort study in Taiwan

AIM

We investigated the long-term risk of dementia for up to 10 years in patients with stroke and broadened the correlates.

METHODS

We carried out a case-control study using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research database in 2000 with a sampled population of 1 million. The study cohort comprised 8236 patients with stroke and no dementia history. We carried out a 1:1 case-control matched analysis on estimated propensity scores. Cox proportional hazards regressions were carried out to estimate the risk of dementia during the 5- and 10-year follow-up periods. The risk factors were also investigated.

RESULTS

The stroke cohort was significantly at more risk of dementia during the 5- and 10-year follow-up periods, with adjusted hazard ratios 1.87 and 1.53, respectively. The patients with ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack and intracerebral hemorrhage had a significantly higher risk of dementia after 5 and 10 years, with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.81 and 1.49, 1.92 and 1.61, and 2.14 and 1.61, respectively. The significant risk factors of dementia were age ≥60 years, resident in southern and eastern regions, having low insurance range, and antiplatelet use.

CONCLUSIONS

Stroke and the subtypes, including ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack and intracerebral hemorrhage, increase the long-term risk of dementia. The incidence of post-stroke dementia increases yearly, but the relative risk decreases gradually. Older adults, residents in southern and eastern regions, having low insurance range and antiplatelet use were prominent risk factors of post-stroke dementia in Taiwan. Careful management of stroke and risk factors of post-stroke dementia with long-term follow up of cognition should be reinforced. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2019; 19: 815-822.

Long-term incidence and risk factors of cardiovascular events in Asian populations: systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Scientific studies on cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden and risk factors are predominantly based on short-term risk in Westerner populations, and such information may not be applicable to Asian populations, especially over the longer term. This review aims to estimate the long-term (>10 years) CVD burden, including coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, as well as associated risk factors in Asian populations.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase and Web of Science were systematically searched, and hits screened on: Asian adults, free of CVD at baseline; cohort study design (follow-up >10 years). Primary outcomes were fatal and non-fatal CVD events. Pooled estimates and between-study heterogeneity were calculated using random effects models, Q and I² statistics.

RESULTS

Overall, 32 studies were eligible for inclusion (follow-up: 11-29 years). The average long-term rate of fatal CVD is 3.68 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 2.84-4.53), the long-term cumulative risk 6.35% (95% CI 4.69%-8.01%, mean 20.13 years) and the cumulative fatal stroke/CHD risk ratio 1.5:1. Important risk factors for long-term fatal CVD (RR, 95% CI) were male gender (1.49, 1.36-1.64), age over 60/65 years (7.55, 5.59-10.19) and current smoking (1.68, 1.26-2.24). High non-HDL-c, and β- and γ-tocopherol serum were associated only with CHD (HR 2.46 [95% CI 1.29-4.71] and 2.47 [1.10-5.61] respectively), while stage 1 and 2 hypertensions were associated only with fatal stroke (2.02 [1.19-3.44] and 2.89 [1.68-4.96] respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Over a 10 year + follow-up period Asian subjects had a higher risk of stroke than CHD. Contrary to CVD prevention in Western countries, strategies should also consider stroke instead of CHD only.

The effects of Bu Yang Huan Wu Tang on post-stroke epilepsy: a nationwide matched study

OBJECTIVE

To compare the long-term risk of epilepsy in stroke patients who use Bu Yang Huan Wu Tang (BYHWT) and those who do not.

METHODS

In the Taiwanese national insurance claims data, we identified newly diagnosed stroke patients receiving inpatient care in the years 2000-2004. Using propensity score-matched pairs to balance the baseline characteristics, we selected eligible stroke patients who did (n=8,971) and did not (n=8,971) receive BYHWT. These two groups were followed up until the end of 2009 to track the occurrence of epilepsy. We used Cox proportional hazard models to calculate the adjusted HRs and 95% CIs for post-stroke epilepsy during the follow-up period according to BYHWT use.

RESULTS

Compared with the control group, stroke patients with BYHWT had a reduced risk of epilepsy during the 5-9 years of the follow-up period (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.61-0.77). The association between BYHWT and reduced post-stroke epilepsy was significant in various subgroups of stroke patients. There was a dose-dependent decrease in the frequency of epilepsy with increasing quantities of BYHWT use from 1 package (HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.66-0.90) to ≥6 packages (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.42-0.65).

CONCLUSION

Stroke patients who received BYHWT therapy had a reduced long-term risk of epilepsy, and the beneficial effect could be observed in various subgroups. However, future clinical trials will be necessary to corroborate the present findings and identify the biochemical mechanism involved.

Long-term prognosis following acute coronary syndromes: a prospective observational study of an unselected group treated in the 24/7 cardiac catheterisation laboratory at a university hospital

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is usually based on clinical data obtained during hospitalisation. To date, there is a limited number of prospective observational studies assessing long-term prognosis of patients discharged from hospital after ACS.

AIM

This study is to investigate long-term follow-up of unselected ACS patients treated at the 24-hour/7-day (24/7) cardiac catheterisation laboratory and discharged from referral university hospital.

METHODS

We studied 672 consecutive ACS patients (median age 61 years, 66.7% men) hospitalised and discharged between 2002 and 2004. The analysis was done in respect of the type of ACS, i.e. non–ST-segment elevation: unstable angina non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (UA/NSTEMI; n = 255) vs. ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI; n = 417). All patients underwent coronarography and, if indicated, primary angioplasty (417 patients with STEMI and 157 patients with UA/NSTEMI). The primary endpoint was defined as all-cause mortality during six years of follow-up. Survival status and date of death were obtained from the National Death Registry of Poland and presented as Kaplan–Meier survival curves.

RESULTS

Despite a significantly higher one-year mortality of patients with UA/NSTEMI compared to those with STEMI (7.1% vs. 3.1%, p = 0.018), the overall mortality assessed throughout follow-up until 2009 was comparable between UA/NSTEMI and STEMI patients (18.8% vs. 18%, p = 0.79).

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term (several years) survival did not depend on the type of ACS.

Proton pump inhibitors: Risks of long-term use

Proton pump inhibitors are among the most commonly prescribed classes of drugs, and their use is increasing, in particular for long-term treatment, often being over-prescribed and used for inappropriate conditions. In recent years, considerable attention has been directed towards a wide range of adverse effects, and even when a potential underlying biological mechanism is plausible, the clinical evidence of the adverse effect is often weak. Several long-term side effects have been investigated ranging from interaction with other drugs, increased risk of infection, reduced intestinal absorption of vitamins and minerals, and more recently kidney damage and dementia. The most recent literature regarding these adverse effects and their association with long-term proton pump inhibitor treatment is reviewed, and the mechanisms through which these possible complications might develop are discussed.

Body weight in midlife and long-term risk of developing heart failure-a 35-year follow-up of the primary prevention study in Gothenburg, Sweden

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine whether midlife obesity predicts heart failure (HF) over an extended follow-up into old age.

METHODS

We studied 7495 men (from a population sample of 9,998 men) without HF, who were 47-55 years old when investigated in 1970 to 1973. All participants were followed up for 35 years, or until death, using the Swedish National Inpatient Register (IPR) and the Cause of Death Register. Over follow-up, 1855 men (24.7%) were discharged from hospital or died with a diagnosis of HF.

RESULTS

There was a strong relation between obesity and future risk of HF, which was accentuated over the last years of the long follow-up. After adjusting for age, the risk of HF increased stepwise with increasing body mass index (BMI), even in those with a normal BMI (22.5-24.9) The subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) was 1.20 (95% CI: 1.02-1.39) in men with a normal BMI, 1.29 (95% CI: 1.11-1.50) for a BMI of 25-27.49, 1.50 (95% CI: 1.27-1.77) for a BMI of 27.5-29.99, and 1.62 (95% CI: 1.33-1.97) for a BMI >30. After adjusting for, age, smoking, occupational class, and physical activity, the results were unchanged.

CONCLUSION

Obesity in midlife is strongly related to the long-term risk of developing HF extending into old age where the risk is highest. Even normal body weight (BMI <25) was related to an increased risk of developing HF during life. Because overweight and obesity are largely preventable, our findings further emphasize the importance of public health interventions against the development of obesity.

Long-term survival in pre-specified groups at risk in the Oslo Study, 1972-1973

AIMS

Using the Oslo Study of 1972-1973, we wished to compare the long-term mortality pattern up to 40 years, in both the healthy cardiovascular groups at supposedly high and low risk, and in some groups having cardiovascular disease at screening.

METHODS

At the screening, 16,203 (63% of those invited) men aged 40-49 years participated. Study groups were identified by means of questionnaires regarding diseases, blood pressure and measurements of total cholesterol, triglycerides and glucose. We identified six groups: very high cholesterol, very high blood pressure, very high glucose, non-smoking with non-elevated such risk factors, from a randomized diet and antismoking trial, and a randomized drug treatment in mild-to-moderate hypertension. Statistical analyses were by Cox regression analysis, with Kaplan-Meier graphs.

RESULTS

The supposedly low-risk group had a total mortality of one-third of other groups, such as: men with hypertension, diabetes or hypercholesterolemia, or those whom participated in the two trials. Between these latter groups, we found 2-5 years of difference in their median survival time, but their absolute risk stayed at rather high levels through all the years, with the median remaining a lifetime that was 3-8 years shorter than the men whom were free of known cardiovascular disease, diabetes or hypertension.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term preventive effects on total mortality seem large, if the levels of the classical risk factors of blood pressure, total cholesterol and glucose can be adequately controlled, concurrently with a non-smoking behavior. The study indicated that non-smoking and a low total cholesterol value were the most important contributors to extended survival.

Long-term risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse according to high-risk human papillomavirus genotype and semi-quantitative viral load among 33,288 women with normal cervical cytology

In this prospective cohort study, we estimated the long-term risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer (CIN3+) by high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) genotype and semi-quantitative viral load at baseline among 33,288 women aged 14-90 years with normal baseline cytology. During 2002-2005, residual liquid-based cervical cytology samples were collected from women screened for cervical cancer in Copenhagen, Denmark. Samples were HPV-tested with Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) and genotyped with INNO-LiPA. Semi-quantitative viral load was measured by HC2 relative light units in women with single hrHPV infections. The cohort was followed in a nationwide pathology register for up to 11.5 years. In women aged ≥30 years at baseline, the 8-year absolute risk for CIN3+ following baseline detection of HPV16 was 21.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 18.0-25.6%). The corresponding risks for HPV18, HPV31, HPV33, and other hrHPV types, respectively, were 12.8% (95% CI: 7.6-18.0%), 11.3% (95% CI: 7.7-14.9%), 12.9% (95% CI: 7.0-18.8%) and 3.9% (95% CI: 2.7-5.2%). Similar absolute risk estimates were observed in women aged <30 years. Higher HPV16-viral load was associated with increased risk of CIN3+ (hazard ratio = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.10-1.64, per 10-fold increase in viral load). A similar trend, although statistically nonsignificant, was found for viral load of HPV18. The 8-year absolute risk of CIN3+ in women with HPV16-viral load ≥100.0 pg/ml was 30.2% (95% CI: 21.9-38.6%). Our results support that hrHPV genotyping during cervical cancer screening may help identify women at highest risk of CIN3+.

Adding computed tomography and transcranial Doppler findings to the ABCD2 score to predict long-term risk of stroke after transient ischaemic attack or minor stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The ABCD(2) score can predict the early risk of stroke after transient ischaemic attack or minor stroke. However, there is no simple and practical assessment method for the long-term risks. Computed tomography (CT) and transcranial Doppler (TCD) findings were added to the ABCD(2) score to build an ABCD(2) L(2) score and whether the new scoring system could improve the predictive value of the ABCD(2) score for the long-term risk of stroke was determined.

METHODS

From January 2004 to December 2005, all patients with a definite diagnosis of transient ischaemic attack or minor stroke at the Prince of Wales Hospital were consecutively enrolled and followed up until August 2008. CT and TCD were performed. The areas under the curve were used to quantify the ABCD(2) and ABCD(2) L(2) scores and related items.

RESULTS

All 481 patients completed the follow-up. The shortest follow-up time was 0.17 months (until death), the longest follow-up time was 55.60 months and the mean follow-up time was 40.3 ± 11.0 months. In total, 277 (57.6%) patients showed lesions on CT scans and 195 (40.6%) patients were found with intracranial large artery atherosclerosis. Further strokes occurred in 74 (15.4%) patients, including four (0.83%) patients who died of ischaemic stroke during the follow-up period. The area under the curve increased from 0.650 (0.586-0.715) for the ABCD(2) score to 0.700 (0.637-0.764) for the ABCD(2) L(2) score.

CONCLUSION

Adding CT and TCD results to the ABCD(2) score to increase its predictability for long-term risk of stroke recurrence might be a meaningful exploration.

Natural history of pediatric-onset inflammatory bowel disease: a systematic review

BACKGROUND/AIMS

There has been no systematic review of natural history studies of pediatric-onset inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We conducted a systematic review focused on understanding the long-term risks of growth failure, disease reclassification and extension, hospitalizations, cancer and death among patients with childhood IBD.

METHODS

PubMed searches and subsequent data abstraction were performed by 2 independent investigators. Studies published full in english with a 5-year minimum average follow-up in at least 30 patients with IBD onset before age 18 years.

RESULTS

We evaluated 41 total studies (only 2 population-based studies) with 3505 Crohn's disease (CD) patients, 2071 ulcerative colitis (UC) patients, and 461 indeterminate colitis (IC). Growth failure was reported in CD (10% and 56%) more often than UC (0% to 10%) or non-IBD controls. Improvements in growth occurred after surgical resection in patients with CD. There was an increase in disease reclassification over time from UC and indeterminate colitis diagnosis to CD diagnosis. Patients with CD had higher number of hospitalizations and hospital days per year in comparison with UC patients in most studies. The reported surgery rates in CD ranged between 10% and 72%; the colectomy rates in UC ranged between 0% and 50%. Cancers were reported in 6 CD patients during a total 18,270 patient-years (PY) follow-up, and 8 UC patients in 18,115 PY. Deaths directly related to IBD were 63 during 39,719 PY.

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood-onset IBD patients had growth failure reported in patients with CD more often than those with UC, had a reclassification of disease type to CD over time. Higher rates of surgery and hospitalizations were found with CD than with UC. The risk of cancer and death is low in this population.

Percutaneous coronary intervention versus coronary artery bypass grafting for diabetics with multivessel coronary artery disease: the Korean Multicenter Revascularization Registry (KORR)

This study was designed to assess the relative merits of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in multivessel coronary artery disease (MVCAD), particularly for Korean diabetics. Among 3,279 patients with MVCAD who were recommended for revascularization were enrolled from nine centers in Korea, 2,154 were selected after statistical adjustments for the disparities between two groups. Survival rates were not significantly different for three years between two groups. Among diabetic patients, the three-year mortality rate in PCI group was 1.9-fold higher than that of CABG group, although it was not statistically significant (PCI 19.8%, CABG 11.4%, p=0.14). The three-year mortality rate was similar between the two groups in non-diabetics (PCI 8.3%, CABG 10.0%, p=0.50). The 30-day rate of cerebrovascular event was higher in CABG group, for both diabetic (CABG 3.6%, PCI 0.0%, p<0.001) and non-diabetic patients (CABG 2.4%, PCI 0.0%, p<0.001). Short- and long-term revascularization rates were higher in PCI group than in CABG group. As a conclusion, this Korean registry demonstrates that PCI was associated with comparable survival rates and lower short-term morbidity, but a greater requirement for repeated revascularization compared with CABG in Korean diabetics.