Application of 4-way decomposition to the analysis of placental-fetal biomarkers as intermediary variables between maternal body mass index and birthweight

Human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) is a placental hormone measured in pregnancy to predict individual level risk of fetal aneuploidy and other complications; yet may be useful in understanding placental origins of child development more generally. hCG was associated with maternal body mass index (BMI) and with birthweight. The primary aim here was to evaluate hCG as a mediator of maternal BMI effects on birthweight by causal mediation analysis. Subjects were 356 women from 3 U.S. sites (2010-2013). The 4-way decomposition method using med4way (STATA) was applied to screen for 5 types of effects of first trimester maternal BMI on birthweight: the total effect, the direct effect, mediation by hCG, additive interaction of BMI and hCG, and mediation in the presence of an additive interaction. Effect modification by fetal sex was evaluated, and a sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the assumption of unmeasured confounding. Additional placental-fetal biomarkers [pregnancy associated plasma protein A (PAPPA), second trimester hCG, inhibin-A, estriol, alpha fetoprotein] were analyzed for comparison. For first trimester hCG, there was a 0.20 standard deviation increase in birthweight at the 75th vs. 25th percentile of maternal BMI (95% CI 0.04, 0.36). Once stratified, the direct effect association was null in women carrying females. In women carrying males, hCG did not mediate the relationship. In women carrying females, there was a mediated effect of maternal BMI on birthweight by hCG in the reverse direction (-0.06, 95% CI: -0.12, 0.01), and a mediated interaction in the positive direction (0.06, 95% CI 0.00, 0.13). In women carrying males, the maternal BMI effect on birthweight was reverse mediated by PAPPA (-0.09, 95% CI: -0.17, 0.00). Sex-specific mediation was mostly present in the first trimester. Second trimester AFP was a positive mediator of maternal BMI effects in male infants only (0.06, 95% CI: -0.01, 0.13). Effect estimates were robust to potential bias due to unmeasured confounders. These findings motivate research to consider first trimester placental biomarkers and sex-specific mechanisms when quantifying the effects of maternal adiposity on fetal growth.

Assisted reproductive technology treatment and risk of breast cancer: a population-based cohort study

STUDY QUESTION

Is there an increased risk of breast cancer among women after ART treatment including ovarian hormone stimulation?

SUMMARY ANSWER

The risk of breast cancer was slightly increased among women after ART treatment compared to age-matched, untreated women in the background population, and the risk was further increased among women initiating ART treatment when aged 40+ years.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

The majority of breast cancer cases are sensitive to oestrogen, and ovarian hormone stimulation has been suggested to increase the risk of breast cancer by influencing endogenous oestrogen levels. Previous studies on ART treatment and breast cancer have varied in their findings, but several studies have small sample sizes or lack follow-up time and/or confounder adjustment. Recent childbirth, nulliparity and higher socio-economic status are breast cancer risk factors and the latter two are also associated with initiating ART treatment.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

The Danish National ART-Couple II (DANAC II) cohort includes women treated with ART at public and private fertility clinics in 1994-2016.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Women with no cancer prior to ART treatment were included (n = 61 579). Women from the background population with similar age and no prior history of ART treatment were randomly selected as comparisons (n = 579 760). The baseline mean age was 33.1 years (range 18-46 years). Results are presented as hazard ratios (HRs) with corresponding CIs.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

During follow-up (median 9.69 years among ART-treated and 9.28 years among untreated), 5861 women were diagnosed with breast cancer, 695 among ART-treated and 5166 among untreated women (1.1% versus 0.9%, P < 0.0001). Using Cox regression analyses adjusted for nulliparity, educational level, partnership status, year, maternal breast cancer and age, the risk of breast cancer was slightly increased among women treated with ART (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.12-1.16). All causes of infertility were slightly associated with breast cancer risk after ART treatment. The risk of breast cancer increased with higher age at ART treatment initiation and was highest among women initiating treatment at age 40+ years (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.29-1.45). When comparing women with a first birth at age 40+ years with or without ART treatment, the increased risk among women treated with ART persisted (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.09-2.08).

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Although this study is based on a large, national cohort of women, more research with sufficient power and confounder adjustment is needed, particularly in cohorts with a broad age representation.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

An increased risk of breast cancer associated with a higher age at ART treatment initiation has been shown. Ovarian stimulation may increase the risk of breast cancer among women initiating ART treatment when aged 40+ years. Age-related vulnerability to hormone exposure or higher hormone doses during ART treatment may explain the increased risk.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This work was supported by a PhD grant to D.V. from the Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Denmark. Funding for establishing the DANAC II cohort was received from the Ebba Rosa Hansen Foundation. The authors report no conflict of interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Fertility Preferences, Contraceptive Use, and the Unmet Need for Contraception in Papua New Guinea: Key Findings From 1996 to 2016

Expanding access to reliable contraception is a global priority in the fight to lower maternal morbidity and mortality. Papua New Guinea (PNG) continues to face significant challenges in enhancing contraceptive services for women. PNG Demographic Health Survey (DHS) has been undertaken every 10 years since 1996 and describes the major trends in crude birth rates, fertility rates and preferences, contraceptive use, and the unmet needs for contraception. The latest survey in 2016 means that there are now 20 years of data available. Between 1996 and 2016, modern contraceptive prevalence increased from 14% to 29% with a preference for longer acting reversible contraception, though the unmet need for contraception persisted at 32% with minimal change since 1996. Rurally dwelling women as well as those with low literacy, who make up the majority of reproductive age women in PNG, were consistently the least likely to use contraception. Expanding access to reliable contraception should therefore be prioritized for these women.

Hot Topics on Fertility Preservation for Women and Girls-Current Research, Knowledge Gaps, and Future Possibilities

Fertility preservation is a novel clinical discipline aiming to protect the fertility potential of young adults and children at risk of infertility. The field is evolving quickly, enriched by advances in assisted reproductive technologies and cryopreservation methods, in addition to surgical developments. The best-characterized target group for fertility preservation is the patient population diagnosed with cancer at a young age since the bulk of the data indicates that the gonadotoxicity inherent to most cancer treatments induces iatrogenic infertility. Since improvements in cancer therapy have resulted in increasing numbers of long-term survivors, survivorship issues and the negative impact of infertility on the quality of life have come to the front line. These facts are reflected in an increasing number of scientific publications referring to clinical medicine and research in the field of fertility preservation. Cryopreservation of gametes, embryos, and gonadal tissue has achieved quality standards for clinical use, with the retrieval of gonadal tissue for cryopreservation being currently the only method feasible in prepubertal children. Additionally, the indications for fertility preservation beyond cancer are also increasing since a number of benign diseases and chronic conditions either require gonadotoxic treatments or are associated with premature follicle depletion. There are many remaining challenges, and current research encompasses clinical health care and caring sciences, ethics, societal, epidemiological, experimental studies, etc.

The use of personal and indoor air pollution monitors in reproductive epidemiology studies

BACKGROUND

Personal and indoor air pollution monitors represent two ways to assess acute air pollution exposures; however, few reproductive epidemiology studies have incorporated these tools.

OBJECTIVE

To provide an overview of the unique challenges and opportunities that arise when measuring acute exposure to air pollution in two ongoing reproductive epidemiology studies.

METHODS

The Air Pollution, In Vitro Fertilization (IVF), and Reproductive Outcomes (AIR) Study recruits women undergoing IVF to wear a personal particulate matter (PM) air pollution monitor (AirBeam2©) for the 72-hour period following the start of controlled ovarian stimulation. The Reproductive Effects of Chemicals and Air Pollutants (RECAP) Study recruits men across the United States to place an air pollution monitor (emmET) in their home for 3 months, use a smartphone application, and provide a semen sample. We highlight the key issues identified in implementing exposure assessment for both studies.

RESULTS

The main advantages of using the AirBeam2© personal monitor are as follows: (a) the low cost, (b) the ability to collect multiple size fractions of PM data every second, (c) the portability, (d) its capability to track GPS location, and (e) the ability for the participant to observe their real-time exposure information. The limited battery life, incompatibility with iOS-based smartphones, and frequent connection issues that arise between the AirBeam2© and smartphone are the main disadvantages. The main advantages of the emmET are the ability to measure multiple air pollutants at a high level of accuracy, collect data for a long period of time without burdening the participant, and ship monitors to participants around the country without the need for in-person set-up by trained technicians; however, the monitor only measures the indoor home environment.

CONCLUSIONS

Novel methods can be utilised to characterise short-term air pollution exposure in reproductive epidemiology studies and represent an exciting area for future research.

Adverse childhood experiences are associated with increased risk of miscarriage in a national population-based cohort study in England

STUDY QUESTION

Is there an association between adverse childhood experiences (ACE) and the risk of miscarriage in the general population?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Specific ACE as well as the summary ACE score were associated with an increased risk of single and recurrent miscarriages.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

There is scarce evidence on the association between ACE and miscarriage risk.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We conducted a retrospective national cohort study. The sample consisted of 2795 women aged 55-89 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA).

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Our study was population-based and included women who participated in the ELSA Life History Interview in 2007. We estimated multinomial logistic regression models of the associations of the summary ACE score and eight individual ACE variables (pertaining to physical and sexual abuse, family dysfunction and experiences of living in residential care or with foster parents) with self-reported miscarriage (0, 1, ≥2 miscarriages).

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Five hundred and fifty-three women (19.8% of our sample) had experienced at least one miscarriage in their lifetime. Compared with women with no ACE, women with ≥3 ACE were two times more likely to experience a single miscarriage in their lifetime (relative risk ratio 2.00, 95% CI 1.25-3.22) and more than three times more likely to experience recurrent miscarriages (≥2 miscarriages) (relative risk ratio 3.10, 95% CI 1.63, 5.89) after adjustment for birth cohort, age at menarche and childhood socioeconomic position. Childhood experiences of physical and sexual abuse were individually associated with increased risk of miscarriage.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Given the magnitude of the observed associations, their biological plausibility, temporal order and consistency with evidence suggesting a positive association between ACE and adverse reproductive outcomes, it is unlikely that our findings are spurious. Nevertheless, the observed associations should not be interpreted as causal as our study was observational and potentially susceptible to bias arising from unaccounted confounders. Non-response and ensuing selection bias may have also biased our findings. Retrospectively measured ACE are known to be susceptible to underreporting. Our study may have misclassified cases of ACE and possibly underestimated the magnitude of the association between ACE and the risk of miscarriage.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Our study highlights experiences of psychosocial adversity in childhood as a potential risk factor for single and recurrent miscarriages. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the role of childhood trauma in miscarriage and add an important life course dimension to the study of miscarriage.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

ELSA is currently funded by the National Institute on Aging in USA (R01AG017644) and a consortium of UK government departments coordinated by the National Institute for Health Research. The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the article. The authors have no actual or potential competing financial interests to disclose.

The Canadian Assisted Reproductive Technologies Register (CARTR) Plus database: a validation study

STUDY QUESTION

Are data accurately documented in the Canadian Assisted Reproductive Technologies Register (CARTR) Plus database?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Measures of validity were strong for the majority of variables evaluated while those with moderate agreement were FSH levels, oocyte origin and elective single embryo transfer.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Health databases and registries are excellent sources of data. However, as these databases are typically not established for the primary purpose of performing research, they should be evaluated prior to utilization for research both to inform the study design and to determine the extent to which key study variables, such as patient characteristics or therapies provided, are accurately documented in the database. CARTR Plus is Canada's national register for collecting extensive information on IVF and corresponding pregnancy outcomes, and it has yet to be validated.

STUDY DESIGN SIZE DURATION

This study evaluating the data translation CARTR Plus database examined IVF cycles performed in 2015 using data directly from patient charts. Six clinics across Canada were recruited to participate, using a purposive sampling strategy. Fixed random sampling was employed to select 146 patient cycles at each clinic, representing unique patients. Only a single treatment cycle record from a unique patient at each clinic was considered during chart selection.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING METHODS

Twenty-five data elements (patient characteristics, treatments and outcomes) were reabstracted from patient charts, which were declared the reference standard. Data were reabstracted by two independent auditors with relevant clinical knowledge after confirming inter-rater reliability. These data elements from the chart were then compared to those in CARTR Plus. To determine the validity of these variables, we calculated kappa coefficients, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value with 95% CI for categorical variables and calculated median differences and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) for continuous variables.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Six clinics agreed to participate in this study representing five Canadian provinces. The mean age of patients was 35.5 years, which was similar between the two data sources, resulting in a near perfect level of agreement (ICC = 0.99; 95% CI: 0.99, 0.99). The agreement for FSH was moderate, ICC = 0.68 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.72). There was nearly perfect agreement for cycle type, kappa = 0.99 (95% CI: 0.98, 1.00). Over 90% of the cycles in the reabstracted charts used autologous oocytes; however, data on oocyte source were missing for 13% of cycles in CARTR Plus, resulting in a moderate degree of agreement, kappa = 0.45 (95% CI, 0.37, 0.52). Embryo transfer and number of embryos transferred had nearly perfect agreement, with kappa coefficients greater than 0.90, whereas that for elective single or double embryo transfer was much lower (kappa = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.49, 0.61). Agreement was nearly perfect for pregnancy type, and number of fetal sacs and fetal hearts on ultrasound, all with kappa coefficients greater than 0.90.

LARGE-SCALE DATA

N/A.

LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION

CARTR Plus contains over 200 variables, of which only 25 were assessed in this study. This foundational validation work should be extended to other CARTR Plus database variables in future studies.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

This study provides the first assessment of the quality of the data translation process of the CARTR Plus database, and we found very high quality for the majority of the variables that were analyzed. We identified key data points that are either too often lacking or inconsistent with chart data, indicating that changes in the data entry process may be required.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

This study was funded by Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) (Grant Number FDN-148438) and by the Canadian Fertility and Andrology Society Research Seed Grant (Grant Number: N/A). The authors report no conflict of interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Not applicable.

A systematic review of database validation studies among fertility populations

STUDY QUESTION

Are routinely collected data from fertility populations adequately validated?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Of the 19 studies included, only one validated a national fertility registry and none reported their results in accordance with recommended reporting guidelines for validation studies.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Routinely collected data, including administrative databases and registries, are excellent sources of data, particularly for reporting, quality assurance, and research. However, these data are subject to misclassification bias due to misdiagnosis or errors in data entry and therefore need to be validated prior to using for clinical or research purposes.

STUDY DESIGN SIZE DURATION

We conducted a systematic review by searching Medline, Embase, and CINAHL from inception to 6 October 2016 to identify validation studies of databases that contain routinely collected data in an ART setting. Webpages of international ART centers were also searched.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING METHODS

We included studies that compared at least two data sources to validate ART population data. Key words and MeSH terms were adapted from previous systematic reviews investigating routinely collected data (e.g. administrative databases and registries), measures of validity (including sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value), and ART (including infertility, IVF, advanced reproductive age, and diminished ovarian reserve). Only full-text studies in English were considered. Results were synthesized qualitatively. The electronic search yielded 1074 citations, of which 19 met the inclusion criteria.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Two studies validated a fertility database using medical records; seven studies used an IVF registry to validate vital records or maternal questionnaires, and two studies failed to adequately describe their reference standard. Four studies investigated the validity of mode of conception from birth registries; two studies validated diagnoses or treatments in a fertility database; four studies validated a linkage algorithm between a fertility registry and another administrative database; one study created an algorithm in a single database to identify a patient population. Sensitivity was the most commonly reported measure of validity (12 studies), followed by specificity (9 studies). Only three studies reported four or more measures of validation, and five studies presented CIs for their estimates. The prevalence of the variable in the target population (pre-test prevalence) was reported in seven studies; however, only four of the studies had prevalence estimates from the study population (post-test prevalence) within a 2% range of the pre-test estimate. The post-test estimate was largely discrepant from the pre-test value in two studies.

LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION

The search strategy was limited to the studies and reports published in English, which may not capture validation studies from countries that do not speak English. Furthermore, only three specific fertility-based diagnostic variables (advanced reproductive age, diminished ovarian reserve, and chorionicity) were searched in Medline, Embase, and CINAHL. Consequently, published studies with other diagnoses or conditions relevant to infertility may not have been captured in our review.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

There is a paucity of literature on validation of routinely collected data from a fertility population. Furthermore, the prevalence of the markers that have been validated are not being presented, which can lead to biased estimates. Stakeholders rely on these data for monitoring outcomes of treatments and adverse events; therefore, it is essential to ascertain the accuracy of these databases and make the reports publicly available.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

This study was supported by Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) (FDN-148438). There are no competing interests for any of the authors.

REGISTRATION NUMBER

International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews ID: CRD42016048466.

Gestational Age at Arrest of Development: An Alternative Approach for Assigning Time at Risk in Studies of Time-Varying Exposures and Miscarriage

The time between arrest of pregnancy development and miscarriage represents a window in which the pregnancy is nonviable and not developing. In effect, the pregnancy loss has already occurred, and additional exposure cannot influence its outcome. However, epidemiologic studies of miscarriage traditionally use gestational age at miscarriage (GAM) to assign time in survival analyses, which overestimates duration of exposure and time at risk. In Right From the Start, a pregnancy cohort study (2000-2012), we characterized the gap between estimated gestational age at arrest of development (GAAD) and miscarriage using transvaginal ultrasound in 500 women recruited from 3 states (North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas). We compared effect estimates from models using GAAD with GAM to assign time at risk through a simulation study of several exposure patterns with varying effect sizes. The median gap between GAAD and miscarriage was 23 days (interquartile range, 15-32). Use of GAAD decreased the bias and variance of the estimated association for time-varying exposures, whereas half the time using GAM led to estimates that differed from the true effect by more than 20%. Using GAAD to assign time at risk should result in more accurate and consistent characterization of miscarriage risk associated with time-varying exposures.

Ambient Air Pollution Exposure and Fecundability in Women Undergoing In Vitro Fertilization

BACKGROUND

Limited research suggests ambient air pollution impairs fecundity but groups most susceptible have not been identified. We studied whether long-term ambient air pollution exposure prior to an in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycle was associated with successful livebirth, and whether associations were modified by underlying infertility diagnosis.

METHODS

Data on women initiating their 1st autologous IVF cycle in 2012-13 were obtained from four U.S. clinics. Outcomes included pregnancy, pregnancy loss, and livebirth. Annual average exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), PM10, and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) prior to IVF start were estimated at residential address using a validated national spatial model incorporating land-use regression and universal kriging. We also assessed residential distance to major roadway. We calculated risk ratios (RR) using modified Poisson regression and evaluated effect modification (EM) by infertility diagnosis on additive and multiplicative scales.

RESULTS

Among 7,463 eligible participants, 36% had a livebirth. There was a non-significant indication of an association between PM2.5 or NO2 and decreased livebirth and increased pregnancy loss. Near roadway residence was associated with decreased livebirth (RR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.82, 0.99. There was evidence for EM between high exposure to air pollutants and a diagnosis of diminished ovarian reserve (DOR) or male infertility and decreased livebirth.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite suggestive but uncertain findings for the overall effect of air pollution on fecundity, we found a suggestive indication that there may be synergistic effects of air pollution and DOR or male infertility diagnosis on livebirth. This suggests two possible targets for future research and intervention.

Prospective Cohort Study of Uterine Fibroids and Miscarriage Risk

We sought to determine the relationship of fibroids to pregnancy loss in a prospective cohort in which fibroid status was uniformly documented in early pregnancy. Participants had an intake interview, transvaginal ultrasonography, computer-assisted telephone interview, and follow-up assessment of outcomes. We recruited diverse participants for the Right From the Start study from 8 metropolitan areas in 3 states in the United States during 2000-2012. Participants were at least 18 years of age, trying to become pregnant or at less than 12 weeks' gestation, not using fertility treatments, fluent in English or Spanish, and available for telephone interviews. Miscarriage was defined as loss before 20 weeks' gestation. Fibroid presence, number, type, and volume were assessed using standardized ultrasonography methods. We used proportional hazards models to estimate associations. Among 5,512 participants, 10.4% had at least 1 fibroid, and 10.8% experienced a miscarriage. Twenty-three percent had experienced a prior miscarriage and 52% prior births. Presence of fibroids was associated with miscarriage in models without adjustments. Adjusting for key confounders indicated no increase in risk (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.83, 95% confidence interval: 0.63, 1.08). No characteristic of fibroids was associated with risk. Prior evidence attributing miscarriage to fibroids is potentially biased. These findings imply that surgical removal of fibroids to reduce risk of miscarriage deserves careful scrutiny.

Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus Screening Strategies in Singapore

The objective of this study was to conduct an incremental cost-effectiveness analysis from the payer's perspective in Singapore of 3 gestational diabetes mellitus screening strategies: universal, targeted, or no screening. A decision tree model assessed the primary outcome: incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Probabilities, costs, and utilities were derived from the literature, the Growing Up in Singapore Towards healthy Outcomes (GUSTO) birth cohort study, and the KK Women's and Children's Hospital's database. Relative to targeted screening using risk factors, universal screening generates an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $USD10,630/QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses show that disease prevalence rates and intervention effectiveness of glycemic management have the biggest impacts on the ICERs. Based on the model and best available data, universal screening is a cost-effective approach for reducing the complications of gestational diabetes mellitus in Singapore as compared with the targeted screening approach or no screening.

Bias from conditioning on live birth in pregnancy cohorts: an illustration based on neurodevelopment in children after prenatal exposure to organic pollutants

Only 60-70% of fertilized eggs may result in a live birth, and very early fetal loss mainly goes unnoticed. Outcomes that can only be ascertained in live-born children will be missing for those who do not survive till birth. In this article, we illustrate a common bias structure (leading to 'live-birth bias') that arises from studying the effects of prenatal exposure to environmental factors on long-term health outcomes among live births only in pregnancy cohorts. To illustrate this we used prenatal exposure to perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in school-aged children as an example. PFAS are persistent organic pollutants that may impact human fecundity and be toxic for neurodevelopment. We simulated several hypothetical scenarios based on characteristics from the Danish National Birth Cohort and found that a weak inverse association may appear even if PFAS do not cause ADHD but have a considerable effect on fetal survival. The magnitude of the negative bias was generally small, and adjusting for common causes of the outcome and fetal loss can reduce the bias. Our example highlights the need to identify the determinants of pregnancy loss and the importance of quantifying bias arising from conditioning on live birth in observational studies.

Too old to have children? Lessons from natural fertility populations

STUDY QUESTION

Is it possible to construct an age curve denoting the ages above which women are biologically too old to reproduce?

SUMMARY ANSWER

We constructed a curve based on the distribution of female age at last birth in natural fertility populations reflecting the ages above which women have become biologically too old to have children.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

The median age at last birth (ALB) for females is ∼40-41 years of age across a range of natural fertility populations. This suggests that there is a fairly universal pattern of age-related fertility decline. However, little is known about the distribution of female ALB and in the present era of modern birth control, it is impossible to assess the age-specific distribution of ALB. Reliable information is lacking that could benefit couples who envisage delaying childbearing.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

This study is a review of high-quality historical data sets of natural fertility populations in which the distributions of female age at last birth were analysed. The studies selected used a retrospective cohort design where women were followed as they age through their reproductive years.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Using a common set of eligibility criteria, large data files of natural fertility populations were prepared such that the analysis could be performed in parallel across all populations. Data on the ALB and confounding variables are presented as box and whisker plots denoting the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentile distribution of the age at last birth for each population. The analysis includes the estimation of Kaplan-Meier curves for age at last birth of each population. The hazard curve for ALB was obtained by plotting the smoothed hazard curve of each population and taking the lowest hazard within a time period of at least 5 years. This lowest hazard curve was then transformed into a cumulative distribution function representing the composite curve of the end of biological fertility. This curve was based on the data from three of the six populations, having the lowest hazards of end of fertility.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

We selected six natural fertility populations comprising 58 051 eligible women. While these populations represent different historical time periods, the distribution of the ages at last birth is remarkably similar. The curve denoting the end of fertility indicates that <3% of women had their last birth at age 20 years meaning that almost 98% were able to have at least one child thereafter. The cumulative curve for the end of fertility slowly increases from 4.5% at age 25 years, 7% at age 30 years, 12% at age 35 years and 20% at age 38 years. Thereafter, it rises rapidly to about 50% at age 41, almost 90% at age 45 years and approaching 100% at age 50 years.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

It may be argued that these historical fertility data do not apply to the present time; however, the age-dependent decline in fertility is similar to current populations and is consistent with the pattern seen in women treated by donor insemination. Furthermore, for reproductive ageing, we note that it is unlikely that such a conserved biological process with a high degree of heritability would have changed significantly within a century or two.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

We argue that the age-specific ALB curve can be used to counsel couples who envisage having children in the future. Our findings challenge the unsubstantiated pessimism regarding the possibility of natural conception after age 35 years.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

No external funding was either sought or obtained for this study. There are no conflicts of interest to be declared.

Risk of miscarriage among black women and white women in a U.S. Prospective Cohort Study

Many adverse pregnancy outcomes differ by race. We examined the association between self-reported race and miscarriage (pregnancy loss at <20 weeks) in a community-based pregnancy cohort. Women from the southeastern United States (North Carolina, Texas, and Tennessee) were enrolled in "Right from the Start" from 2000 to 2009. They were recruited while trying to conceive or during early pregnancy. Participants completed study ultrasound examinations, interviews, and consent forms for review of medical records. We used proportional hazard models to examine miscarriage risk among black women compared with white women, adjusted for confounders. There were 537 observed miscarriages among 4,070 women, 23% of whom self-identified as black (n = 932). The life table-adjusted cumulative risk of loss after gestational week 5 was 21.3%. With adjustment for age and alcohol use, blacks had increased risk of miscarriage compared with whites (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.57, 95% confidence interval: 1.27, 1.93). When risk of loss before gestational week 10 was dichotomized at the median gestational age, there was little difference, but black women had a greater risk thereafter compared with white women (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.93, 95% confidence interval: 1.48, 2.51). Early pregnancy ultrasound examinations did not differ by race. In summary, self-reported race is independently associated with risk of miscarriage, and the higher risk for black women is concentrated in gestational weeks 10-20.