Predicting Hospital Survival in Patients Admitted to ICU with Pulmonary Embolism

OBJECTIVE

The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and simplified PESI (sPESI) predict mortality for patients with PE. We compared PESI/sPESI to the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE-IV) in predicting mortality in patients with PE admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Additionally, we assessed the performance of a novel ICU-sPESI score created by adding three clinical variables associated with acuity of PE presentation (intubation, confusion [altered mental status], use of vasoactive infusions) to sPESI.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using the eICU Collaborative Research Database from 2014 to 2015, we conducted a large retrospective cohort study of adult patients admitted to the ICU with a primary diagnosis of PE. We calculated APACHE-IV, PESI, sPESI, and ICU-sPESI scores and compared their performance for predicting in-hospital mortality using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. Score thresholds for >99% negative predictive values (NPV) were calculated for each score. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

We included 1424 PE cases. In-hospital mortality was 6.3% [95% CI: 5.1%-7.6%]. AUROC for APACHE-IV, PESI, and sPESI were 0.870, 0.848, and 0.777, respectively. APACHE-IV and PESI outperformed sPESI (P < 0.01 for both comparisons), while APACHE-IV and PESI demonstrated similar performance (P = 0.322). The ICU-sPESI performance was similar to APACHE-IV and PESI (AUROC = 0.847; AUROC comparison: APACHE-IV vs ICU-sPESI: P = 0.396; PESI vs ICU-sPESI: P = 0.945). Hospital mortality for ICU-sPESI scores 0-2 was 1.1%, and for scores 3, 4, 5, 6, and ≥7 was 8.6%, 11.7%, 29.2%, 37.5%, and 76.9%, respectively. Score thresholds for >99% NPV were ≤48 for APACHE-IV, ≤115 for PESI, and 0 points for sPESI and ICU-sPESI.

CONCLUSIONS

By accounting for severity of PE presentation, our newly proposed ICU-sPESI score provided improved PE mortality prediction compared to the original sPESI score and offered excellent discrimination of mortality risk.

Performance of the Simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index in predicting 30-day mortality after acute pulmonary embolism: Validation from a large-scale cohort

BACKGROUND

The performance of existing prognostic scores including the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) for short-term mortality of non-high-risk PE in Chinese population has not been widely validated.

METHODS

Non-high-risk patients were included from the prospective cohort of the China pUlmonary Thromboembolism REgistry Study (CURES). The sPESI, RIETE, Geneva, modified FAST, and Bova score were validated. The discriminatory performance was measured by the area under the curve (AUC). We also compared the sensitivity, odds ratio, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of these scores.

RESULTS

A total of 6,873 non-high-risk patients with acute PE were included and 241 (3.5 %) patients died within 30 days. Compared to the Geneva, modified FAST, and Bova score, the AUCs for predicting 30-day death of sPESI and RIETE score were higher at 0.712 (95 % CI, 0.680, 0.743) and 0.723 (95 % CI, 0.691, 0.755) respectively. The sPESI demonstrated the highest sensitivity at 0.809, while the RIETE score, Geneva, Modified FAST and BOVA score showed sensitivities of 0.622, 0.568, 0.477 and 0.502 respectively. A sPESI ⩾1 point was associated with a 4.7-fold increased risk of 30-day all-cause mortality (95 % CI, 3.427, 6.563, p < 0.001), while a RIETE score of ⩾1 point was associated with a 4.5-fold increased risk (95 % CI, 3.127, 6.341, p < 0.001). The Geneva score, modified FAST and Bova score showed inferior performance.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of the fewer-parameter, easier-to-calculate sPESI in Chinese patients with PE can help to discriminate patients with extremely low risk of short-term mortality for home treatment or early discharge.

Validation of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index Risk Classification and the 2019 European Society of Cardiology Risk Stratification in the Southeast Asian Population with Acute Pulmonary Embolism

AIM

To date, no studies representing the Southeast Asian population have validated the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and 2019 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk stratification. Therefore, this study aimed to validate the PESI score, simplified PESI (sPESI), PESI risk classification, and 2019 ESC risk stratification in Southeast Asian patients with acute pulmonary embolism (APE).

METHODS

The present study is a 10-year cross-sectional study. Here, risk regressions were conducted to identify the PESI risk classification, sPESI, and 2019 ESC risk stratification as predictors for 30-day all-cause and PE-related mortalities. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to determine the diagnostic ability of the PESI score, sPESI score, PESI risk classification, and 2019 ESC risk stratification to predict 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 696 patients (male, 286; female, 410; mean age, 57.7±15.7 years) were included in this study from 2011 to 2020. The risk of 30-day all-cause mortality progressively increased with the 2019 ESC risk stratification, being approximately 6-fold higher in the high-risk than in the low-risk class [risk ratio: 6.24 (95% confidence interval (CI), 3.12, 12.47), P＜0.001]. The risk of 30-day all-cause mortality with the PESI risk classification also increased with the risk classes, being approximately 6-fold higher in class V than in class I [adjusted risk ratio: 5.91 (95% CI, 2.25, 15.51), P＜0.001]. The highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC) of the predictive model was the PESI score [AuROC=0.733 (95% CI, 0.685, 0.782)].

CONCLUSION

Our study represents a good validation of the PESI and 2019 ESC risk stratification to predict 30-day mortality after APE diagnosis in the Southeast Asian population.

Cardiac Biomarkers in Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism

Pulmonary embolism is a frequent and potentially fatal disease. The major challenge of initial management lies in prognostic stratification. Since 2014, the European recommendations on the diagnosis and management of acute pulmonary embolism are based on assessing the risk stratification regarding hemodynamic status first, then on a combined risk assessment model using a clinical score, an imaging evaluation of right heart size and the concentration of a serum cardiac biomarker. Usual biomarkers cover cardiac ischemia (troponin and derivates) and dilatation (BNP and derivates). The aim of this review is to offer a practical update on the role of the Troponins and BNPs families of biomarkers and the prognosis of pulmonary embolism, and furthermore, to provide a brief overview of their place in current management.

Utility of Blood Cellular Indices in the Risk Stratification of Patients Presenting with Acute Pulmonary Embolism

Pulmonary embolism (PE) clinical manifestations vary widely, and that scope is not fully captured by current all-cause mortality risk models. PE is associated with inflammatory, coagulation, and hemostatic imbalances so blood cellular indices may be prognostically useful. Complete blood count (CBC) data may improve current risk models like the simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) for all-cause mortality, offering greater accuracy and analytic ability. Acute PE patients (n = 228) with confirmatory diagnostic imaging were followed for all-cause mortality. Blood cellular indices were assessed for association to all-cause mortality and were supplemented into sPESI using multivariate logistic regression. Multiple blood cellular indices were found to be significantly associated with all-cause mortality in acute PE. sPESI including red cell distribution width, hematocrit and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio had better predictive ability as compared to sPESI alone (AUC: 0.852 vs 0.754). Blood cellular indices contribute an inflammatory and hemodynamic perspective not currently included in sPESI. CBC with differential is a widely used, low-cost test that can augment current risk stratification tools for all-cause mortality in acute PE patients.

Combination of D-dimer and simplified pulmonary embolism severity index to improve prediction of hospital death in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

Objective

To investigate whether the combination of D-dimer and simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) could improve prediction of in-hospital death from pulmonary embolism (PE).

Methods

Patients with PE (n = 272) were divided into a surviving group (n = 249) and an in-hospital death group (n = 23).

Results

Compared with surviving patients, patients who died in hospital had significantly higher rates of hypotension and tachycardia, reduced SaO₂ levels, elevated D-dimer and troponin T levels, higher sPESI scores, and were more likely to be classified as high risk. Elevated D-dimer levels and high sPESI scores were significantly associated with in-hospital death. Using thresholds for D-dimer and sPESI of 3.175 ng/mL and 1.5, respectively, the specificity for prediction of in-hospital death was 0.357 and 0.414, respectively, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.665 and 0.668, respectively. When D-dimer and sPESI were considered together, the specificity for prediction of in-hospital death increased to 0.838 and the AUC increased to 0.74.

Conclusions

D-dimer and sPESI were associated with in-hospital death from PE. Considering D-dimer levels together with sPESI can significantly improve the specificity of predicting in-hospital death for patients with PE.

Refinement of a modified simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index for elderly patients with acute pulmonary embolism

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the utility of a modified (i.e., without the variable "Age >80 years") simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) in elderly patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE), and to derive and validate a refined version of the sPESI for identification of elderly patients at low risk of adverse events.

METHODS

The study included normotensive patients aged >80 years with acute PE enrolled in the RIETE registry. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to create a new risk score to predict 30-day all-cause mortality. We externally validated the new risk score in elderly patients from the COMMAND VTE registry.

RESULTS

Multivariable logistic regression identified four predictors for mortality: high-risk sPESI, immobilization, coexisting deep vein thrombosis (DVT), and plasma creatinine >2 mg/dL. In the RIETE derivation cohort, the new model classified fewer patients as low risk (4.0% [401/10,106]) compared to the modified sPESI (35% [3522/10,106]). Low-risk patients based on the new model had a lower 30-day mortality than those based on the modified sPESI (1.2% [95% CI, 0.4-2.9%] versus 4.7% [95% CI, 4.0-5.4%]). In the COMMAND VTE validation cohort, 1.5% (3/206) of patients were classified as having low risk of death according to the new model, and the overall 30-day mortality of this group was 0% (95% CI, 0-71%), compared to 5.9% (95% CI, 3.1-10.1%) in the high-risk group.

CONCLUSIONS

For predicting short-term mortality among elderly patients with acute PE, this study suggests that the new model has a substantially higher sensitivity than the modified sPESI. A minority of these patients might benefit from safe outpatient therapy of their disease.

Association Between D-Dimer Level and In-Hospital Death of Pulmonary Embolism Patients

To investigate whether D-dimer level could predict pulmonary embolism (PE) severity and in-hospital death, a total of 272 patients with PE were divided into a survival group (n = 249) and a death group (n = 23). Comparisons of patient characteristics between the 2 groups were performed using Mann-Whitney U test. Significant variables in univariate analysis were entered into multivariate logistic regression analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to determine the predictive value of D-dimer level alone or together with the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) for in-hospital death. Results showed that patients in the death group were significantly more likely to have hypotension (P = 0.008), tachycardia (P = 0.000), elevated D-dimer level (P = 0.003), and a higher sPESI (P = 0.002) than those in the survival group. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that D-dimer level was an independent predictor of in-hospital death (OR = 1.07; 95% CI, 1.003-1.143; P = 0.041). ROC curve analysis showed that when D-dimer level was 3.175 ng/ml, predicted death sensitivity and specificity were 0.913 and 0.357, respectively; and when combined with sPESI, specificity (0.838) and area under the curve (0.740) were increased. Thus, D-dimer level is associated with in-hospital death due to PE; and the combination with sPESI can improve the prediction level.

Percutaneous thrombectomy in patients with massive and very high-risk submassive acute pulmonary embolism

OBJECTIVE

Examine FlowTriever thrombectomy feasibility in high-risk PE patients.

BACKGROUND

The FlowTriever thrombectomy system (Inari Medical, Irvine, CA) can reduce right ventricle (RV) strain in acute submassive pulmonary embolism (PE) patients. This technology has not been studied in higher risk PE patients.

METHODS

This multicenter retrospective analysis included patients treated with FlowTriever between 2017 and 2019 if they met at least one of the following: vasopressor dependence, PE induced respiratory failure, or decreased cardiac index (CI) measured by right heart catheterization.

RESULTS

Analysis included 34 patients: 18 massive, four intubated, 12 normotensive but with CI < 1.8. Average age was 56 and their median simplified PE severity index was 2. Patients had high bleeding risk, with 13 having recent surgery, six posttrauma, and four recent strokes. Six patients received cardiopulmonary resuscitation, and two received additional mechanical circulatory support. All patients had RV dilatation and elevated biomarkers. Clot removal was successful in 32/34 patients. CI improved from 2.0 ± 0.1 L/min/m² before thrombectomy to 2.4 ± 0.1 L/min/m² after (p = .01). The mean pulmonary artery pressure decreased from 33.2 ± 1.6 mmHg to 25.0 ± 1.5 mmHg (p = .01). The two patients-both with no or minimal thrombus removed-deteriorated during the procedure: one died and the other was successfully stabilized on ECMO. There were no other major complications. All other patients were alive at the time of data collection (mean follow-up of 205 days).

CONCLUSION

Aspiration thrombectomy appears feasible in higher risk acute PE patients with immediate hemodynamic improvement and low in-hospital mortality.

Factor Xa inhibition and sPESI failure in intermediate-high-risk pulmonary embolism

We report the case of a 61-year-old man who presented at the Emergency Department (ED), complaining of sudden-onset dyspnea and chest pain after a long flight from Tokyo to Houston. Considering his clinical stability and sPESI 0, enoxaparin 1 mg/kg BID was started for 24 h, and the patient was then considered for early discharge with apixaban 10 mg BID. Direct-factor Xa inhibition did not improve extensive thrombus burden and right ventricular dysfunction despite D-dimer measurement reduction. Because of the treatment failure, we considered thrombolysis. Currently, recommendations to use thrombolysis in patients under non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) do not exist. Hence, the one dose of apixaban was stopped, and 12 h later, we performed successful thrombolysis. A systematic review from 2007 to 2017 did not identify any cases related to NOACs failure to reduce thrombus burdens in patients with PE and persistent right ventricular dysfunction. We also did not find any evidence of cases that reported strategies for urgent thrombolysis in PE patients on NOACs. To the best of our knowledge, apixaban's failure to reduce thrombus burden, persistent right ventricular dysfunction, and a NOACs-thrombolysis bridge in patients with PE on apixaban has not been previously described. Both the bedside risk stratification and the therapeutic failures should alert clinicians in the ED to the potential limitations of low-molecular-weight heparin, NOACs therapy, and sPESI in the setting of intermediate-high-risk PE.