The importance of individual beliefs in assessing treatment efficacy

In recent years, there has been debate about the effectiveness of treatments from different fields, such as neurostimulation, neurofeedback, brain training, and pharmacotherapy. This debate has been fuelled by contradictory and nuanced experimental findings. Notably, the effectiveness of a given treatment is commonly evaluated by comparing the effect of the active treatment versus the placebo on human health and/or behaviour. However, this approach neglects the individual's subjective experience of the type of treatment she or he received in establishing treatment efficacy. Here, we show that individual differences in subjective treatment - the thought of receiving the active or placebo condition during an experiment - can explain variability in outcomes better than the actual treatment. We analysed four independent datasets (N = 387 participants), including clinical patients and healthy adults from different age groups who were exposed to different neurostimulation treatments (transcranial magnetic stimulation: Studies 1 and 2; transcranial direct current stimulation: Studies 3 and 4). Our findings show that the inclusion of subjective treatment can provide a better model fit either alone or in interaction with objective treatment (defined as the condition to which participants are assigned in the experiment). These results demonstrate the significant contribution of subjective experience in explaining the variability of clinical, cognitive, and behavioural outcomes. We advocate for existing and future studies in clinical and non-clinical research to start accounting for participants' subjective beliefs and their interplay with objective treatment when assessing the efficacy of treatments. This approach will be crucial in providing a more accurate estimation of the treatment effect and its source, allowing the development of effective and reproducible interventions.

Futurization of Aging: Subjective Beliefs and Effects

Aging in the face of an increasing population and growing life expectancy is considered one of the major demographic challenges in modern society. Previous research has revealed that quality of life in aging could significantly differ depending on the resources one possesses. However, little attention has been given to the mechanisms of formation of these resources and the role of intentionality. In the present study, we identified 22 strategies that favor a better life quality in aging and analyzed them from the perspective of subjective beliefs and reported performance. Our sample was adults (n = 72) aged 57-65, living in St. Petersburg, Russia. The results showed that although participants were aware of the strategies that favor aging, their reported performance ranged on a scale from average to infrequent use of these strategies. We found that subjective beliefs about the role of psychological resources for better aging predicted higher scores on subjective beliefs about the role of lifestyle resources and the reported performance of psychological resources. Our results suggest that there is a gap between subjective beliefs about the controllability of aging processes and the transformation of these beliefs into real performance.

Robust identification of investor beliefs

Prices in asset markets reflect a combination of investor beliefs and their risk preferences. Researchers, as well as policymakers, look to asset market data as a barometer of public beliefs. Such data are informative because investors must be compensated for exposure to macroeconomic shocks, and thus beliefs about future macroeconomic performance are encoded in asset prices. This paper develops a method informed by data and models to recover information about investor beliefs. Our approach uses information embedded in forward-looking asset prices in conjunction with asset pricing models. We entertain families of potential belief distortions bounded by a statistical measure of divergence. Additionally, our method allows for the direct use of sparse survey evidence to make these bounds more informative.

This paper develops a method informed by data and models to recover information about investor beliefs. Our approach uses information embedded in forward-looking asset prices in conjunction with asset pricing models. We step back from presuming rational expectations and entertain potential belief distortions bounded by a statistical measure of discrepancy. Additionally, our method allows for the direct use of sparse survey evidence to make these bounds more informative. Within our framework, market-implied beliefs may differ from those implied by rational expectations due to behavioral/psychological biases of investors, ambiguity aversion, or omitted permanent components to valuation. Formally, we represent evidence about investor beliefs using a nonlinear expectation function deduced using model-implied moment conditions and bounds on statistical divergence. We illustrate our method with a prototypical example from macrofinance using asset market data to infer belief restrictions for macroeconomic growth rates.

How Well Can We Assess Our Ability to Understand Others' Feelings? Beliefs About Taking Others' Perspectives and Actual Understanding of Others' Emotions

People vary in their beliefs about their tendency to engage in perspective taking and to understand other's feelings. Often, however, those beliefs are suggested to be poor indicators of actual skills and thus provide an inaccurate reflection of performance. Few studies, however, have examined whether people's beliefs accurately predict their performance on emotion recognition tasks using dynamic or spontaneous emotional expressions. We report six studies (N ranges from 186 to 315; N total = 1,347) testing whether individuals' report of their engagement in perspective taking, as measured by the Interpersonal Reactivity Index (IRI; Davis, 1983), is associated with accurate emotion recognition. In Studies 1-3, emotion recognition performance was assessed using three standard tests of nonverbal emotion recognition. To provide a more naturalistic test, we then assessed performance with a new emotion recognition test in Studies 4-6, using videos of real targets that share their emotional experiences. Participants' multi-scalar ratings of the targets' emotions were compared with the targets' own emotion ratings. Across all studies, we found a modest, yet significant positive relationship: people who believe that they take the other's perspective also perform better in tests of emotion recognition (r = 0.20, p < 0.001). Beliefs about taking others' perspective thus reflect interpersonal reality, but only partially.

Are People Overoptimistic about the Effects of Heavy Drinking?

We test whether heavy or binge drinkers are overly optimistic about probabilities of adverse consequences from these activities or are relatively accurate about these probabilities. Using data from a survey in eight cities, we evaluate the relationship between subjective beliefs and drinking. We assess accuracy of beliefs about several outcomes of heavy/binge drinking: reduced longevity, liver disease onset, link between alcohol consumption and Driving While Intoxicated (DWI), probability of an accident after drinking, accuracy of beliefs about encountering intoxicated drivers on the road, and legal consequences of DWI-ranging from being stopped to receiving fines and jail terms. Overall, there is no empirical support for the optimism bias hypothesis. We do find that persons consuming a lot of alcohol tend to be more overconfident about their driving abilities and ability to handle alcohol. However, such overconfidence does not translate into over-optimism about consequences of high levels of alcohol consumption.

Race, gender, and risk perceptions of the legal consequences of drinking and driving

INTRODUCTION

This study investigated whether subjective beliefs about the consequences of driving while intoxicated (DWI) differ by race/gender.

METHOD

Beliefs affect driving behaviors and views of police/judicial fairness. The researchers compared risk perceptions of DWI using a survey of drinkers in eight cities in four states with actual arrest and conviction rates and fines from court data in the same cities.

RESULTS

With state arrest data as a benchmark, Black males were overly pessimistic about being stopped, whether or not actual drinking occurred, and attributed higher jail penalties to DWI conviction. That Black males overestimated jail sentences incurred by the general population suggests that they did not attribute higher jail penalties to racial bias. Arrest data did not reveal disparities in judicial outcomes following DWI arrest.

CONCLUSIONS

Blacks' subjective beliefs about DWI consequences may reflect social experiences, which are not jurisdiction- or crime-specific; this is a challenge to policymakers aiming to deter DWI by changing statutes and enforcement.

IMPACT ON INDUSTRY

If perception of bias exists despite no actual bias, a change in enforcement policy would not be effective, but a public relations campaign would be helpful in realigning beliefs.