Quality over quantity: Sampling high probability rare events with the weighted ensemble algorithm

The prediction of (un)binding rates and free energies is of great significance to the drug design process. Although many enhanced sampling algorithms and approaches have been developed, there is not yet a reliable workflow to predict these quantities. Previously we have shown that free energies and transition rates can be calculated by directly simulating the binding and unbinding processes with our variant of the WE algorithm "Resampling of Ensembles by Variation Optimization", or "REVO". Here, we calculate binding free energies retrospectively for three SAMPL6 host-guest systems and prospectively for a SAMPL9 system to test a modification of REVO that restricts its cloning behavior in quasi-unbound states. Specifically, trajectories cannot clone if they meet a physical requirement that represents a high likelihood of unbinding, which in the case of this work is a center-of-mass to center-of-mass distance. The overall effect of this change was difficult to predict, as it results in fewer unbinding events each of which with a much higher statistical weight. For all four systems tested, this new strategy produced either more accurate unbinding free energies or more consistent results between simulations than the standard REVO algorithm. This approach is highly flexible, and any feature of interest for a system can be used to determine cloning eligibility. These findings thus constitute an important improvement in the calculation of transition rates and binding free energies with the weighted ensemble method.

A Comparison of Weighted Stochastic Simulation Methods for the Analysis of Genetic Circuits

Rare events are of particular interest in synthetic biology because rare biochemical events may be catastrophic to a biological system by, for example, triggering irreversible events such as off-target drug delivery. To estimate the probability of rare events efficiently, several weighted stochastic simulation methods have been developed. Under optimal parameters and model conditions, these methods can greatly improve simulation efficiency in comparison to traditional stochastic simulation. Unfortunately, the optimal parameters and conditions cannot be deduced a priori. This paper presents a critical survey of weighted stochastic simulation methods. It shows that the methods considered here cannot consistently, efficiently, and exactly accomplish the task of rare event simulation without resorting to a computationally expensive calibration procedure, which undermines their overall efficiency. The results suggest that further development is needed before these methods can be deployed for general use in biological simulations.

#COVIDisAirborne: AI-enabled multiscale computational microscopy of delta SARS-CoV-2 in a respiratory aerosol

We seek to completely revise current models of airborne transmission of respiratory viruses by providing never-before-seen atomic-level views of the SARS-CoV-2 virus within a respiratory aerosol. Our work dramatically extends the capabilities of multiscale computational microscopy to address the significant gaps that exist in current experimental methods, which are limited in their ability to interrogate aerosols at the atomic/molecular level and thus obscure our understanding of airborne transmission. We demonstrate how our integrated data-driven platform provides a new way of exploring the composition, structure, and dynamics of aerosols and aerosolized viruses, while driving simulation method development along several important axes. We present a series of initial scientific discoveries for the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, noting that the full scientific impact of this work has yet to be realized.

#COVIDisAirborne: AI-Enabled Multiscale Computational Microscopy of Delta SARS-CoV-2 in a Respiratory Aerosol

We seek to completely revise current models of airborne transmission of respiratory viruses by providing never-before-seen atomic-level views of the SARS-CoV-2 virus within a respiratory aerosol. Our work dramatically extends the capabilities of multiscale computational microscopy to address the significant gaps that exist in current experimental methods, which are limited in their ability to interrogate aerosols at the atomic/molecular level and thus ob-scure our understanding of airborne transmission. We demonstrate how our integrated data-driven platform provides a new way of exploring the composition, structure, and dynamics of aerosols and aerosolized viruses, while driving simulation method development along several important axes. We present a series of initial scientific discoveries for the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, noting that the full scientific impact of this work has yet to be realized.

ACM REFERENCE FORMAT

Abigail Dommer 1† , Lorenzo Casalino 1† , Fiona Kearns 1† , Mia Rosenfeld 1 , Nicholas Wauer 1 , Surl-Hee Ahn 1 , John Russo, 2 Sofia Oliveira 3 , Clare Morris 1 , AnthonyBogetti 4 , AndaTrifan 5,6 , Alexander Brace 5,7 , TerraSztain 1,8 , Austin Clyde 5,7 , Heng Ma 5 , Chakra Chennubhotla 4 , Hyungro Lee 9 , Matteo Turilli 9 , Syma Khalid 10 , Teresa Tamayo-Mendoza 11 , Matthew Welborn 11 , Anders Christensen 11 , Daniel G. A. Smith 11 , Zhuoran Qiao 12 , Sai Krishna Sirumalla 11 , Michael O'Connor 11 , Frederick Manby 11 , Anima Anandkumar 12,13 , David Hardy 6 , James Phillips 6 , Abraham Stern 13 , Josh Romero 13 , David Clark 13 , Mitchell Dorrell 14 , Tom Maiden 14 , Lei Huang 15 , John McCalpin 15 , Christo- pherWoods 3 , Alan Gray 13 , MattWilliams 3 , Bryan Barker 16 , HarindaRajapaksha 16 , Richard Pitts 16 , Tom Gibbs 13 , John Stone 6 , Daniel Zuckerman 2 *, Adrian Mulholland 3 *, Thomas MillerIII 11,12 *, ShantenuJha 9 *, Arvind Ramanathan 5 *, Lillian Chong 4 *, Rommie Amaro 1 *. 2021. #COVIDisAirborne: AI-Enabled Multiscale Computational Microscopy ofDeltaSARS-CoV-2 in a Respiratory Aerosol. In Supercomputing '21: International Conference for High Perfor-mance Computing, Networking, Storage, and Analysis . ACM, New York, NY, USA, 14 pages. https://doi.org/finalDOI.

AI-driven multiscale simulations illuminate mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 spike dynamics

We develop a generalizable AI-driven workflow that leverages heterogeneous HPC resources to explore the time-dependent dynamics of molecular systems. We use this workflow to investigate the mechanisms of infectivity of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, the main viral infection machinery. Our workflow enables more efficient investigation of spike dynamics in a variety of complex environments, including within a complete SARS-CoV-2 viral envelope simulation, which contains 305 million atoms and shows strong scaling on ORNL Summit using NAMD. We present several novel scientific discoveries, including the elucidation of the spike's full glycan shield, the role of spike glycans in modulating the infectivity of the virus, and the characterization of the flexible interactions between the spike and the human ACE2 receptor. We also demonstrate how AI can accelerate conformational sampling across different systems and pave the way for the future application of such methods to additional studies in SARS-CoV-2 and other molecular systems.

An ensemble approach to short-term forecast of COVID-19 intensive care occupancy in Italian regions

The availability of intensive care beds during the COVID‐19 epidemic is crucial to guarantee the best possible treatment to severely affected patients. In this work we show a simple strategy for short‐term prediction of COVID‐19 intensive care unit (ICU) beds, that has proved very effective during the Italian outbreak in February to May 2020. Our approach is based on an optimal ensemble of two simple methods: a generalized linear mixed regression model, which pools information over different areas, and an area‐specific nonstationary integer autoregressive methodology. Optimal weights are estimated using a leave‐last‐out rationale. The approach has been set up and validated during the first epidemic wave in Italy. A report of its performance for predicting ICU occupancy at regional level is included.

AI-Driven Multiscale Simulations Illuminate Mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Dynamics

We develop a generalizable AI-driven workflow that leverages heterogeneous HPC resources to explore the time-dependent dynamics of molecular systems. We use this workflow to investigate the mechanisms of infectivity of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, the main viral infection machinery. Our workflow enables more efficient investigation of spike dynamics in a variety of complex environments, including within a complete SARS-CoV-2 viral envelope simulation, which contains 305 million atoms and shows strong scaling on ORNL Summit using NAMD. We present several novel scientific discoveries, including the elucidation of the spike's full glycan shield, the role of spike glycans in modulating the infectivity of the virus, and the characterization of the flexible interactions between the spike and the human ACE2 receptor. We also demonstrate how AI can accelerate conformational sampling across different systems and pave the way for the future application of such methods to additional studies in SARS-CoV-2 and other molecular systems.

OPTIMIZING WEIGHTED ENSEMBLE SAMPLING OF STEADY STATES

We propose parameter optimization techniques for weighted ensemble sampling of Markov chains in the steady-state regime. Weighted ensemble consists of replicas of a Markov chain, each carrying a weight, that are periodically resampled according to their weights inside of each of a number of bins that partition state space. We derive, from first principles, strategies for optimizing the choices of weighted ensemble parameters, in particular the choice of bins and the number of replicas to maintain in each bin. In a simple numerical example, we compare our new strategies with more traditional ones and with direct Monte Carlo.

Exploring Configuration Space and Path Space of Biomolecules Using Enhanced Sampling Techniques-Searching for Mechanism and Kinetics of Biomolecular Functions

To understand functions of biomolecules such as proteins, not only structures but their conformational change and kinetics need to be characterized, but its atomistic details are hard to obtain both experimentally and computationally. Here, we review our recent computational studies using novel enhanced sampling techniques for conformational sampling of biomolecules and calculations of their kinetics. For efficiently characterizing the free energy landscape of a biomolecule, we introduce the multiscale enhanced sampling method, which uses a combined system of atomistic and coarse-grained models. Based on the idea of Hamiltonian replica exchange, we can recover the statistical properties of the atomistic model without any biases. We next introduce the string method as a path search method to calculate the minimum free energy pathways along a multidimensional curve in high dimensional space. Finally we introduce novel methods to calculate kinetics of biomolecules based on the ideas of path sampling: one is the Onsager⁻Machlup action method, and the other is the weighted ensemble method. Some applications of the above methods to biomolecular systems are also discussed and illustrated.

Weighted Ensemble Simulation: Review of Methodology, Applications, and Software

The weighted ensemble (WE) methodology orchestrates quasi-independent parallel simulations run with intermittent communication that can enhance sampling of rare events such as protein conformational changes, folding, and binding. The WE strategy can achieve superlinear scaling-the unbiased estimation of key observables such as rate constants and equilibrium state populations to greater precision than would be possible with ordinary parallel simulation. WE software can be used to control any dynamics engine, such as standard molecular dynamics and cell-modeling packages. This article reviews the theoretical basis of WE and goes on to describe successful applications to a number of complex biological processes-protein conformational transitions, (un)binding, and assembly processes, as well as cell-scale processes in systems biology. We furthermore discuss the challenges that need to be overcome in the next phase of WE methodological development. Overall, the combined advances in WE methodology and software have enabled the simulation of long-timescale processes that would otherwise not be practical on typical computing resources using standard simulation.

Estimating first-passage time distributions from weighted ensemble simulations and non-Markovian analyses

First-passage times (FPTs) are widely used to characterize stochastic processes such as chemical reactions, protein folding, diffusion processes or triggering a stock option. In previous work (Suarez et al., JCTC 2014;10:2658-2667), we demonstrated a non-Markovian analysis approach that, with a sufficient subset of history information, yields unbiased mean first-passage times from weighted-ensemble (WE) simulations. The estimation of the distribution of the first-passage times is, however, a more ambitious goal since it cannot be obtained by direct observation in WE trajectories. Likewise, a large number of events would be required to make a good estimation of the distribution from a regular "brute force" simulation. Here, we show how the previously developed non-Markovian analysis can generate approximate, but highly accurate, FPT distributions from WE data. The analysis can also be applied to any other unbiased trajectories, such as from standard molecular dynamics simulations. The present study employs a range of systems with independent verification of the distributions to demonstrate the success and limitations of the approach. By comparison to a standard Markov analysis, the non-Markovian approach is less sensitive to the user-defined discretization of configuration space.