Shifted sediment-transport regimes by climate change and amplified hydrological variability in cryosphere-fed rivers

Climate change affects cryosphere-fed rivers and alters seasonal sediment dynamics, affecting cyclical fluvial material supply and year-round water-food-energy provisions to downstream communities. Here, we demonstrate seasonal sediment-transport regime shifts from the 1960s to 2000s in four cryosphere-fed rivers characterized by glacial, nival, pluvial, and mixed regimes, respectively. Spring sees a shift toward pluvial-dominated sediment transport due to less snowmelt and more erosive rainfall. Summer is characterized by intensified glacier meltwater pulses and pluvial events that exceptionally increase sediment fluxes. Our study highlights that the increases in hydroclimatic extremes and cryosphere degradation lead to amplified variability in fluvial fluxes and higher summer sediment peaks, which can threaten downstream river infrastructure safety and ecosystems and worsen glacial/pluvial floods. We further offer a monthly-scale sediment-availability-transport model that can reproduce such regime shifts and thus help facilitate sustainable reservoir operation and river management in wider cryospheric regions under future climate and hydrological change.

Exceptional increases in fluvial sediment fluxes in a warmer and wetter High Mountain Asia

[Figure: see text].

Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods

Flooding affects more people than any other environmental hazard and hinders sustainable development^1,2. Investing in flood adaptation strategies may reduce the loss of life and livelihood caused by floods³. Where and how floods occur and who is exposed are changing as a result of rapid urbanization⁴, flood mitigation infrastructure⁵ and increasing settlements in floodplains⁶. Previous estimates of the global flood-exposed population have been limited by a lack of observational data, relying instead on models, which have high uncertainty^3,7-11. Here we use daily satellite imagery at 250-metre resolution to estimate flood extent and population exposure for 913 large flood events from 2000 to 2018. We determine a total inundation area of 2.23 million square kilometres, with 255-290 million people directly affected by floods. We estimate that the total population in locations with satellite-observed inundation grew by 58-86 million from 2000 to 2015. This represents an increase of 20 to 24 per cent in the proportion of the global population exposed to floods, ten times higher than previous estimates⁷. Climate change projections for 2030 indicate that the proportion of the population exposed to floods will increase further. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the satellite observations will improve our understanding of where floods are changing and how best to adapt. The global flood database generated from these observations will help to improve vulnerability assessments, the accuracy of global and local flood models, the efficacy of adaptation interventions and our understanding of the interactions between landcover change, climate and floods.

Global-scale human impact on delta morphology has led to net land area gain

River deltas rank among the most economically and ecologically valuable environments on Earth. Even in the absence of sea-level rise, deltas are increasingly vulnerable to coastal hazards as declining sediment supply and climate change alter their sediment budget, affecting delta morphology and possibly leading to erosion^1-3. However, the relationship between deltaic sediment budgets, oceanographic forces of waves and tides, and delta morphology has remained poorly quantified. Here we show how the morphology of about 11,000 coastal deltas worldwide, ranging from small bayhead deltas to mega-deltas, has been affected by river damming and deforestation. We introduce a model that shows that present-day delta morphology varies across a continuum between wave (about 80 per cent), tide (around 10 per cent) and river (about 10 per cent) dominance, but that most large deltas are tide- and river-dominated. Over the past 30 years, despite sea-level rise, deltas globally have experienced a net land gain of 54 ± 12 square kilometres per year (2 standard deviations), with the largest 1 per cent of deltas being responsible for 30 per cent of all net land area gains. Humans are a considerable driver of these net land gains-25 per cent of delta growth can be attributed to deforestation-induced increases in fluvial sediment supply. Yet for nearly 1,000 deltas, river damming⁴ has resulted in a severe (more than 50 per cent) reduction in anthropogenic sediment flux, forcing a collective loss of 12 ± 3.5 square kilometres per year (2 standard deviations) of deltaic land. Not all deltas lose land in response to river damming: deltas transitioning towards tide dominance are currently gaining land, probably through channel infilling. With expected accelerated sea-level rise⁵, however, recent land gains are unlikely to be sustained throughout the twenty-first century. Understanding the redistribution of sediments by waves and tides will be critical for successfully predicting human-driven change to deltas, both locally and globally.

Changes in water and sediment exchange between the Changjiang River and Poyang Lake under natural and anthropogenic conditions, China

To study the fluvial interaction between Changjiang River and Poyang Lake, we analyze the observed changes of riverine flux of the mid-upstream of Changjiang River catchment, the five river systems of Poyang Lake and Poyang Lake basin. Inter-annual and seasonal variations of the water discharge and sediment exchange processes between Changjiang River and Poyang Lake are systematically explored to determine the influence of climate change as well as human impact (especially the Three Gorges Dam (TGD)). Results indicate that climate variation for the Changjiang catchment and Poyang Lake watershed is the main factor determining the changes of water exchanges between Changjiang River and Poyang Lake. However, human activities (including the emplacement of the TGD) accelerated this rate of change. Relative to previous years (1956-1989), the water discharge outflow from Poyang Lake during the dry season towards the Changjiang catchment increased by 8.98 km(3)y(-1) during 2003-2010. Evidently, the water discharge flowing into Poyang Lake during late April-late May decreased. As a consequence, water storage of Poyang Lake significantly reduced during late April-late May, resulting in frequent spring droughts after 2003. The freshwater flux of Changjiang River towards Poyang Lake is less during the flood season as well, significantly lowering the magnitude and frequency of the backflow of the Changjiang River during 2003-2010. Human activities, especially the emplacement and operation of the TGD and sand mining at Poyang Lake impose a major impact on the variation of sediment exchange between Changjiang main river and Poyang Lake. On average, sediments from Changjiang River deposited in Poyang Lake before 2000. After 2000, Changjiang River no longer supplied sediment to Poyang Lake. As a consequence, the sediment load of Changjiang River entering the sea increasingly exists of sediments from Lake Poyang during 2003-2010. As a result, Poyang Lake converted from a depositional to an erosional system, with a gross sediment loss of 120.19 Mty(-1) during 2001-2010, including sand mining.

Fluvial response to climate variations and anthropogenic perturbations for the Ebro River, Spain in the last 4,000 years

Fluvial sediment discharge can vary in response to climate changes and human activities, which in return influences human settlements and ecosystems through coastline progradation and retreat. To understand the mechanisms controlling the variations of fluvial water and sediment discharge for the Ebro drainage basin, Spain, we apply a hydrological model HydroTrend. Comparison of model results with a 47-year observational record (AD 1953-1999) suggests that the model adequately captures annual average water discharge (simulated 408 m(3)s(-1) versus observed 425 m(3)s(-1)) and sediment load (simulated 0.3 Mt yr(-1) versus observed 0.28 ± 0.04 Mt yr(-1)) for the Ebro basin. A long-term (4000-year) simulation, driven by paleoclimate and anthropogenic land cover change scenarios, indicates that water discharge is controlled by the changes in precipitation, which has a high annual variability but no long-term trend. Modeled suspended sediment load, however, has an increasing trend over time, which is closely related to anthropogenic land cover variations with no significant correlation to climatic changes. The simulation suggests that 4,000 years ago the annual sediment load to the ocean was 30.5 Mt yr(-1), which increased over time to 47.2 Mt yr(-1) (AD 1860-1960). In the second half of the 20th century, the emplacement of large dams resulted in a dramatic decrease in suspended sediment discharge, eventually reducing the flux to the ocean by more than 99% (mean value changes from 38.1 Mt yr(-1) to 0.3 Mt yr(-1)).

Socio-economic impacts on flooding: a 4000-year history of the Yellow River, China

We analyze 4000-year flood history of the lower Yellow River and the history of agricultural development in the middle river by investigating historical writings and quantitative time series data of environmental changes in the river basin. Flood dynamics are characterized by positive feedback loops, critical thresholds of natural processes, and abrupt transitions caused by socio-economic factors. Technological and organizational innovations were dominant driving forces of the flood history. The popularization of iron plows and embarkment of the lower river in the 4th century BC initiated a positive feedback loop on levee breaches. The strength of the feedback loop was enhanced by farming of coarse-sediment producing areas, steep hillslope cultivation, and a new river management paradigm, and finally pushed the flood frequency to its climax in the seventeenth century. The co-evolution of river dynamics and Chinese society is remarkable, especially farming and soil erosion in the middle river, and central authority and river management in the lower river.

Impact of Humans on the Flux of Terrestrial Sediment to the Global Coastal Ocean

Here we provide global estimates of the seasonal flux of sediment, on a river-by-river basis, under modern and prehuman conditions. Humans have simultaneously increased the sediment transport by global rivers through soil erosion (by 2.3 +/- 0.6 billion metric tons per year), yet reduced the flux of sediment reaching the world's coasts (by 1.4 +/- 0.3 billion metric tons per year) because of retention within reservoirs. Over 100 billion metric tons of sediment and 1 to 3 billion metric tons of carbon are now sequestered in reservoirs constructed largely within the past 50 years. African and Asian rivers carry a greatly reduced sediment load; Indonesian rivers deliver much more sediment to coastal areas.