Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States

Evidence of the physical and economic impacts of climate change is a critical input to policy development and decision-making. In addition to the magnitude of potential impacts, detailed estimates of where, when, and to whom those damages may occur; the types of impacts that will be most damaging; uncertainties in these damages; and the ability of adaptation to reduce potential risks are all interconnected and important considerations. This study utilizes the reduced-complexity model, the Framework for Evaluating Damages and Impacts (FrEDI), to rapidly project economic and physical impacts of climate change across 10 000 future scenarios for multiple impact sectors, regions, and populations within the contiguous United States (US). Results from FrEDI show that net national damages increase overtime, with mean climate-driven damages estimated to reach USD 2.9 trillion (95 % confidence interval (CI): USD 510 billion to USD 12 trillion) annually by 2090. Detailed FrEDI results show that for the analyzed sectors the majority of annual long-term (e.g., 2090) damages are associated with climate change impacts to human health, including mortality attributable to climate-driven changes in temperature and air pollution (O3 and PM2.5) exposure. Regional results also show that annual long-term climate-driven damages vary geographically. The Southeast (all regions are as defined in Fig. 5) is projected to experience the largest annual damages per capita (mean: USD 9300 per person annually; 95 % CI: USD 1800-USD 37 000 per person annually), whereas the smallest damages per capita are expected in the Southwest (mean: USD 6300 per person annually; 95 % CI: USD 840-USD 27 000 per person annually). Climate change impacts may also broaden existing societal inequalities, with, for example, Black or African Americans being disproportionately affected by additional premature mortality from changes in air quality. Lastly, FrEDI projections are extended through 2300 to estimate the net present climate-driven damages within US borders from marginal changes in greenhouse gas emissions. Combined, this analysis provides the most detailed illustration to date of the distribution of climate change impacts within US borders.

Taking stock of nationally determined contributions: Continued ratcheting of ambition is critical to limit global warming to 1.5°C

As countries take stock of progress made in accomplishing their climate goals ahead of COP28 this year, it is increasingly apparent that countries must ratchet ambition in policy areas such as non-CO2 gases and carbon dioxide removal, while halting deforestation to lead the globe on a path consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Emissions and energy impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act

Economy-wide emissions drop 43 to 48% below 2005 levels by 2035 with accelerated clean energy deployment.

Role of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in limiting global warming

Current climate pledges are insufficient to achieve the aspirational goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Here we discuss the critical role that non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions might play in global climate change stabilization, and challenges and opportunities to pivot research and policy focus towards accelerated reductions of non-CO2 gases.

The Energy System Transformation Needed to Achieve the U.S. Long-Term Strategy

The authors designed and executed the integrated assessment modeling for the United States Long-Term Strategy. They bring diverse expertise to the modeling and analysis of United States decarbonization. Russell Horowitz, Matthew Binsted, and Haewon McJeon are scientists at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a partnership between Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland. Allen Fawcett, James McFarland, and Morgan Browning are economists at the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Economics Branch. Claire Henly is White House Fellow at the Office of the U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate. Nathan Hultman is the Director of the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland.

Incidence of presenting complaints and diagnoses in insured Australian dogs

Knowledge of the most common presenting complaints and diagnoses in companion animals is valuable in preparing veterinary students and veterinarians to manage the most frequently observed conditions in clinical practice. Pet insurance databases provide access to large sample populations and have been previously used to describe disease incidence in companion animals. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of presenting complaints and diagnoses in insured Australian dogs through the use of a pet insurance database. Analysis of a de-identified dataset containing pet insurance claims associated with presenting complaints and diagnoses from 488,472 insured Australian dogs insured in the years 2016 and 2017, was performed. Annual incidence rates of presenting complaints and diagnoses were calculated and expressed as, number of events per 1,000 dog years at risk. The presenting complaints with the highest incidence were vomiting (14.21 events per 1,000 dog years at risk in 2016, 15.80 events per 1,000 dog years at risk in 2017) and pruritus (8.79 events per 1,000 dog years at risk in 2016, 10.30 events per 1,000 dog years at risk in 2017). Presenting complaints affecting the gastrointestinal system were the most common (19.20 events per 1,000 dog years at risk in 2016, 20.77 events per 1,000 dog years at risk in 2017). The diagnoses with the highest incidence were otitis externa (34.12 events per 1,000 dog years at risk in 2016, 34.82 events per 1,000 dog years at risk in 2017) and dermatitis (28.05 events per 1,000 dog years at risk in 2016, 29.99 events per 1,000 dog years at risk in 2017). Diagnoses affecting the integument were the most common (216.56 events per 1,000 dog years at risk in 2016, 219.06 events per 1,000 dog years at risk in 2017). The results from this study can aid in the design of relevant veterinary curricula and may be helpful in prioritising research on common clinical conditions.

How management of grief associated with ending the life of an animal is taught to Australasian veterinary students

OBJECTIVE

Veterinarians have an important role in supporting and understanding their clients' grief. Veterinary schools have a duty to teach students how best to manage grief - both that of the students/future veterinarians and the clients. This study explores how grief management, associated with ending the life of an animal, was taught to students in eight Australasian veterinary schools.

METHODS

A questionnaire-style interview guide was used by a representative at each university to conduct structured interviews with educators in a snowball sampling approach. Educators were interviewed about the teaching of grief management for four categories of animals: livestock, equine, companion and avian/wildlife. The terms used by participants to describe what they taught were grouped into common themes. Teaching was defined by individual participants and included structured and unstructured approaches. The stage in the degree (preclinical or clinical years) that grief management was taught in the veterinary curriculum and by whom (e.g. clinicians or psychologists) is also described.

RESULTS

Grief management was taught more in preclinical than clinical years. However, due to how grief was characterised, much of this teaching was general 'nonspecific' teaching that included all categories of animals. Client grief was taught more generically, whereas, grief of veterinarians was taught using specific examples given by clinicians.

CONCLUSION

A more robust end-of-life (EoL) management curriculum that includes all aspects of grief management is likely to increase job satisfaction, client happiness and professional satisfaction.

DVM students report higher psychological distress than the Australian public, medical students, junior medical officers and practicing veterinarians

AIM

To measure the stress levels of Doctor of Veterinary Medicine (DVM) students at the University of Sydney using the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10) questionnaire.

METHODS

DVM students in years 1 to 4 were surveyed in semester 2 of 2018. The voluntary online survey consisted of 6 demographic questions and the K10 scale, a standardised measure of stress commonly used in Australia by medical practitioners for evaluation and referral to mental health professionals. Academic year cohorts were compared to identify differences in stress levels. Cohorts were compared to published K10 scores from various populations including the Australian public, medical students, practicing veterinarians, and Junior Medical Officers (JMOs).

RESULTS

The response rate was 54.4% (n = 237). DVM students experienced a higher level of psychological distress (mean 24, median 23, range 10-50) than the Australian population (mean 14.5, median 13, range 10-50), medical students (mean 18.4, median 16, range 10-50), practicing veterinarians (mean 16.7, median 15.5, range 10-30), and JMOs (mean 18.1, median 16, range 10-50). Female students (median 23) had a significantly higher level of psychological distress compared to male students (median 18) (p = 0.0005). International students (median 23) had a higher level of psychological stress than domestic students (median 22) (p = 0.0488). Different year cohorts, age range, work hours, and exercise were not associated with difference in stress levels.

CONCLUSION

Based on higher levels of stress in DVM students than that of the general population, practicing veterinarians, JMOs and medical students, there is an urgent need for evidence-based interventions to target stress in DVM students.

Flexural and Torsional Analysis of Five Acrylics for Use in External Skeletal Fixation

Mechanical testing of five acrylics was performed to evaluate material property differences that might affect their use as support rods in external skeletal fixation (ESF). Flexural and torsional analysis demonstrated that differences existed in the stiffness of the acrylics with polyethyl/polymethylmethacrylate products being the stiffest and a polyethylmethacrylate product being least stiff. Increasing the amount of inert filler also increased the stiffness. The inherent porosity of the individual acrylics did not have an effect on their mechanical properties. These differences in stiffness might affect fracture healing by affecting the amount of primary or secondary osteosynthesis that occurs.

Different polymeric forms of acrylic possess mechanical properties that influence their stiffness. Based on flexural and torsional analysis, these properties may differ significantly and affect external skeletal fixator stiffness.

Presented at the twenty-fourth annual meeting of the Veterinary Orthopedic Society, Big Sky, MT March 2-8, 1997.

Effect of intramedullary pin size on reducing bone plate strain

The degrees of plate strain, coupled with various diameters of intramedullary pins, is reported. In addition, the fatigue life and stiffness of the plate/pin construct was determined.

Students' opinions on welfare and ethics issues for companion animals in Australian and New Zealand veterinary schools

OBJECTIVE

To determine what veterinary students in Australia and New Zealand consider important competences in companion animal welfare and ethics (AWE) required on their first day of practice, and to explore how their priorities relate to gender and stage of study.

METHODS

Undergraduate students at all veterinary schools in Australia and New Zealand were sent an online survey. A subset of questions required participants to rank the importance of preselected AWE topics pertaining to companion animals. Data were analysed to determine differences in the way students of different gender or academic stage prioritised each of these AWE topics.

RESULTS

Of 3220 currently enrolled students, 851 participated in the survey: 79% were female, 17% male, 4% unspecified. Ranking of the AWE topics, from highest to lowest importance, was: neutering, companion animal husbandry, euthanasia, behaviour and training, animal breeding, over-servicing in relation to animal needs and cosmetic surgery. Female students consistently ranked competency in AWE issues surrounding neutering more highly than male students (P = 0.006). Students in senior years of study ranked the importance of competency in animal abuse/hoarding (P = 0.048), shelter medicine (P = 0.012) and animal breeding (P = 0.002) less highly than those in junior years.

CONCLUSIONS

Australasian veterinary students placed more importance on competency in AWE issues associated with clinical practice (such as neutering and euthanasia) than on professional behaviours (such as over-servicing and animal breeding). However, we consider that emphasis should still be placed on developing graduate competency in the latter categories to reflect growing societal concerns about companion animal over-supply and inappropriate professional conduct.

Characteristics of persons convicted for offences relating to animal hoarding in New South Wales

OBJECTIVE

To highlight the characteristics of persons convicted for offences related to animal hoarding in New South Wales, Australia, document the outcomes of cases and compare them with overseas studies.

DESIGN

Retrospective case series.

METHODS

Records of finalised prosecutions for offences relating to animal hoarding between 2005 and 2011 were examined. Data recorded included: the age of each subject at the first offence, sex, postcode, occupation, living conditions, number of charges, number of prosecutions, title of each charge, number and species of live animals, whether animals needed veterinary attention, the medical conditions that the animals suffered, whether dead animals were on the property, how animals were obtained, veterinary and legal costs accrued and case outcomes. The data were analysed to obtain frequencies and relative frequencies for categorical variables and summary statistics for quantitative variables. Observed frequencies were compared using Chi-square test with the expected frequencies calculated based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics data for NSW.

RESULTS

The number of persons included was 29. Most were female (72.4%) and 23 were 40-64 years of age at their first offence. Almost one-third identified themselves as breeders, eight as pensioners and four as unemployed. Most resided in inner regional Australia (45%), 28% lived in major cities and 28% lived in outer regional Australia. Dogs were the species hoarded in 80% of cases. Animals requiring veterinary attention were identified in all cases. Dead animals were found on premises in 41.4% of cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Persons prosecuted for charges relating to animal hoarding in NSW have similar characteristics to those of previous studies, although the outcomes may be different. More farm animals and horses were hoarded in NSW and hoarders in NSW were more likely to live in inner regional and outer regional areas (rural areas) than animal hoarders in the USA.

Platelet activation and serotonin colorectal surgery release during

In vitro studies show serotonin has a profound vasospastic effect on human mesenteric arteries. A similar response has been shown in vivo in atherosclerotic primates. If platelet serotonin stores are released as a consequence of platelet activation during colorectal surgery, a similar effect may significantly alter the perfusion of newly formed anastomoses leading to ischaemia and anastomotic breakdown. Here we have studied the effects of surgery and anaesthesia on intraplatelet and plasma serotonin levels during the peri- and postoperative period following colorectal surgery. A series of six consecutive patients undergoing colorectal resection and anastomosis were selected. Peripheral venous blood samples, taken at specified times before and after surgery and prepared in a platelet stabilizing buffer solution, were analysed using a validated enzyme immunoassay technique. Intraplatelet serotonin levels were seen to fall post-operatively, whilst plasma serotonin levels were shown to rise, implying significant platelet activation and serotonin during the peri-operative period. This study demonstrates the increased bioavailability of serotonin during the peri-operative period in colorectal surgery patients. If the in vitro effects of this amine are mirrored in vivo, increased plasma levels of serotonin may have an important role in anastomotic dehiscence secondary to ischaemia.

Prevalence of obesity in dogs examined by Australian veterinary practices and the risk factors involved

A study was undertaken to determine the prevalence of obesity in dogs examined by veterinary practices across Australia, and to determine the risk factors involved; 1700 practices were asked to complete a veterinarian opinion survey, and of the 428 practices that responded, 178 were selected to complete an RSPCA Australia Pet Obesity Questionnaire, together with additional practices selected by Australian State and Territory RSPCA societies. This questionnaire was sent to a total of 209 practices which were asked to record details of eligible dogs, and the reason why they had been examined during the previous month. Fifty-two (24.9 per cent) of the practices responded and provided data on 2661 dogs, of which 892 (33.5 per cent) were overweight and 201 (7.6 per cent) were obese. A further 112 dogs (4.2 per cent) were classified as thin or very thin, but these were excluded from subsequent analyses. Of the remaining 2549 dogs, approximately half were female and 1905 (74.7 per cent) were neutered. The dogs' weight category was influenced by several factors. Breed influenced the importance of sex and neutering as risk factors. The prevalence of overweight and obese dogs combined was 41 per cent; the prevalence increased with age up to about 10 years old, and then declined. Rural and semirural dogs were more at risk of obesity than urban and suburban dogs.

Multifocal squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus following radiotherapy for bilateral breast carcinoma

A 60 year old woman who presented with dysphagia and weight loss was found to have multiple foci of dysplasia and in situ and invasive squamous cell carcinoma scattered along the whole length of the oesophagus, with intervening areas of normal mucosa. The patient had a history of two breast carcinomas 19 and one year previously for which she had repeated radiotherapy. Several members of the patient's close family had histories of malignant disease. All oesophageal lesions and the more recent breast cancer showed positive immunostaining for p53 protein. p53 mutations, some involving different exons, were also detected in these lesions. No p53 immunostaining or mutations were detected in the normal oesophageal mucosa. The findings suggest an independent origin of the multiple dysplastic and neoplastic foci, which might have developed in a background of a field change, possibly related to the previous radiotherapy. The strong family history of malignant diseases raises the possibility that, in addition, genetic factors might have played a role in the development of the oesophageal disease.

Vergence control across saccades in dyslexic adults

Many aspects of vision have been investigated in developmental dyslexia. Some research suggests deficits in vergence control (e.g. Buzzelli, 1991, Optom. Vision Sci. 68, 842-846), although ability to control vergence across saccades has not yet been investigated. We have explored this question indirectly using Enright's (1996 Vision Res. 36, 307-312.) sequential stereopsis task. The task requires observers to set two adjacent targets (whose textures cannot be resolved simultaneously if either is fixated) to appear equi-distant. Enright has argued that sequential stereopsis stereoacuity thresholds offer an indication of vergence control across saccades. We report two experiments using a total of 17 dyslexic and 18 control adults. Performance was measured on a sequential stereopsis task and an ordinary 'simultaneous' stereopsis task. No significant differences between groups were found. However, whereas practice of the sequential task lowered control group thresholds on the simultaneous task, for the dyslexic group it significantly raised thresholds, suggesting that visual fatigue is especially important in investigations of visual functions in dyslexia. Although the small samples used limit conclusions at this stage, the main sequential stereopsis results suggest that, if Enright is correct, dyslexic adults can show normal vergence control across saccades.

Smoking, hypertension, and colonic anastomotic healing; a combined clinical and histopathological study

BACKGROUND

Large bowel anastomotic breakdown occurs as a result of perianastomotic ischaemia. Preservation of the macroscopic arterial supply to the perianastomotic tissues is vital, but little is known about the influence of microvascular disease on anastomotic healing.

AIMS

To study the associations between risk factors for macrovascular disease, the presence of colonic microvascular disease, and the incidence of anastomotic dehiscence.

PATIENTS

147 consecutive colonic surgery patients.

METHODS

The prevalence of smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and ischaemic heart disease were established retrospectively from patient notes. These risk factors were correlated with histopathological assessment of resection margin vasculature and clinical follow up.

RESULTS

Smoking and hypertension were significantly associated with an increased incidence of anastomotic dehiscence and microvascular disease. Microvascular disease was positively correlated with an increased incidence of anastomotic dehiscence.

CONCLUSIONS

Microvascular disease predisposes to anastomotic breakdown. This effect may in part be due to vasospasm in the diseased vessels, which are hypersensitive to serotonin, a vasoactive amine known to be present in increased quantities in the serum of smokers, hypertensives, and after surgery. Treatment with serotonin antagonists in the perioperative period may be beneficial to anastomotic healing, helping to maintain microvascular flow.

Microvascular disease and anastomotic dehiscence in the colon

Platelet-derived serotonin released in response to tissue manipulation during surgery may contribute to mesenteric arterial vasospasm leading to postoperative anastomotic leakage after colorectal resection. Organ bath experiments were used to demonstrate the efficacy of naftidrofuryl fumarate (NFT) to oppose serotonin-induced vasoconstriction of human mesenteric arteries. Cumulative dose-response curves were derived with and without NFT at 10(-9) and 10(-6) mol/l concentrations. The difference in maximal contractility between the three sets of curves (n = 8 for each) was significant (P < 0.0001). Sensitivity to serotonin in each of the three curves was measured by calculating the concentration for half-maximal response; differences were again significant (P < 0.0001). NFT reduced serotonin-induced contractility in a dose-dependent fashion in rings of human mesenteric arteries in vitro. This suggests a possible role for NFT in reducing mesenteric vasospasm in colorectal surgery.

Umbilical artery flow velocity waveforms and placental resistance: the effects of embolization of the umbilical circulation

Embolization of the umbilical placental circulation in fetal lambs was carried out to occlude the small vessels of the placental vascular bed and to observe the effect on the umbilical artery flow and flow velocity waveforms. Thirteen singleton fetuses were studied from day 120 of pregnancy. Embolization was achieved by injecting approximately 9 X 10(6) microspheres of 15 micron diameter into the fetal placental cotyledons along the umbilical arteries over 9 days. Umbilical and uterine flows were measured by radioactive microsphere counting. The umbilical placental resistance was increased (0.25 to 0.35 mm Hg.ml.min-1) by embolization, and there was an increase in the umbilical artery systolic/diastolic ratio. Embolization produced a significant fall in umbilical flow expressed either as total flow (312 to 237 ml.min-1) or when normalized by reference against splanchnic flow (3.36 to 1.53). We conclude that the umbilical artery flow velocity waveform systolic/diastolic ratio measures the reflection coefficient at the peripheral vascular bed (the "resistance vessels") of the placenta.

Efficacy of treatment regimens for lower urogenital Chlamydia trachomatis infection in women

One hundred thirteen women had Chlamydia trachomatis isolated from the cervix, or urethra, or both, were treated, and followed until failure occurred or for at least 40 days after initiation of treatment. On regimens given four times daily for 7 days, failure occurred in three (8%) of 38 on tetracycline, 500 mg, in none of five on erythromycin, 500 mg, and in three (8%) of 37 on erythromycin, 250 mg. On regimens of 500 mg given four times daily for 10 days, failure occurred in none of nine on tetracycline and in one (4%) of 24 on sulfisoxazole. Erythromycin, 500 mg, was stopped because of severe side effects. Another 10 women were given a loading dose of ampicillin plus additional ampicillin for 3 to 21 days and were followed for 4 to 76 days after treatment was stopped. Only two women remained culture positive after therapy. This study demonstrates that antimicrobial regimens that are frequently given to women in North America have significant activity against C. trachomatis.

Tetracycline in nongonococcal urethritis. Comparison of 2 g and 1 g daily for seven days

In a previous study treatment with minocycline 100 mg orally every day for seven days was as effective for nongonococcal urethritis (NGU) as 200 mg for seven days or 100 or 200 mg for 21 days. In this prospective, randomised study men with NGU received tetracycline either 500 mg or 250 mg four times daily for seven days. of 200 men initially enrolled, Chlamydia trachomatis was isolated from 40% and Ureaplasma urealyticum from 48%. Eight of 10 homosexual men compared with 39 (21%) of 190 bisexual or heterosexual men had negative culture results for both C trachomatis and U urealyticum (x2 = 15.5, P < 0.0005). U urealyticum was isolated more frequently from chlamydia-negative men and from men with 10 or fewer sex partners during their lifetime. Both regimens were equally effective in their in-vivo activity against C trachomatis and U urealyticum. Failure rates were similar with the two regimens. More obvious failure with purulent or profuse mucoid discharge and pyuria occurred more frequently with the 250-mg regimen (20% of 76 men on the 250-mg regimen compared with 7% of 67 men on the 500-mg regimen; x2 = 4.45, P < 0.05). Failure occurred more frequently in men who were initially chlamydia-negative and in men in whom U urealyticum persisted after medication. Thus, the 250-mg regimen appeared to be as effective as the 500-mg regimen in the initial treatment of NGU. However, one-third of men had persistent or recurrent urethritis with these regimens, and there is a need for antimicrobial agents with greater in-vivo activity, especially against chlamydia-negative NGU.