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The error of estimated GFR in predialysis care. Sci Rep 2024; 14:5219. [PMID: 38433228 PMCID: PMC10909958 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-55022-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2023] [Accepted: 02/19/2024] [Indexed: 03/05/2024] Open
Abstract
The error of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and its consequences in predialysis are unknown. In this prospective multicentre study, 315 predialysis patients underwent measured GFR (mGFR) by the clearance of iohexol and eGFR by 52 formulas. Agreement between eGFR and mGFR was evaluated by concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), total deviation index (TDI) and coverage probability (CP). In a sub-analysis we assessed the impact of eGFR error on decision-making as (i) initiating dialysis, (ii) preparation for renal replacement therapy (RRT) and (iii) continuing clinical follow-up. For this sub-analysis, patients who started RRT due to clinical indications (uremia, fluid overload, etc.) were excluded. eGFR had scarce precision and accuracy in reflecting mGFR (average CCC 0.6, TDI 70% and cp 22%) both in creatinine- and cystatin-based formulas. Variations -larger than 10 ml/min- between mGFR and eGFR were frequent. The error of formulas would have suggested (a) premature preparation for RTT in 14% of stable patients evaluated by mGFR; (b) to continue clinical follow-up in 59% of subjects with indication for RTT preparation due to low GFRm and (c) to delay dialysis in all asymptomatic patients (n = 6) in whom RRT was indicated based on very low mGFR. The error of formulas in predialysis was frequent and large and may have consequences in clinical care.
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Pretransplant evaluation and the risk of glucose metabolic alterations after renal transplantation: a prospective study. Nephrol Dial Transplant 2023; 38:778-786. [PMID: 36083994 DOI: 10.1093/ndt/gfac256] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Post-transplant prediabetes (PreDM) and diabetes (PTDM) are common and have an impact on cardiovascular events. We sought to investigate the pathogenesis and best approach for prediction. METHODS We prospectively studied 115 waitlisted patients from a single center without manifest diabetes. An oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed yearly until transplantation and 12 months later. Insulin secretion, insulin sensitivity (IS) and disposition index (DI) were derived from the OGTT. RESULTS PreDM and PTDM were observed in 27% and 28.6% of patients, respectively. Pretransplant age, body mass index (BMI), 120 min glucose, IS, DI, and prediabetes or undiagnosed diabetes were significantly associated with these alterations. In multivariate analysis, pretransplant age [odds ratio (OR) 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-2.1], BMI (OR 1.16; 95% CI 1.04-1.3) and cumulative steroids (OR 1.5; 95% CI 1.02-2.2) were predictors of PreDM or PTDM. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that pretransplant BMI and 120 min glucose had the highest area under the curve (0.72; 95% CI 0.62-0.8; and 0.69; 95% CI 0.59-0.79, respectively). The highest discrimination cut-off for BMI (≥28.5 kg/m2) and 120 min glucose (≥123.5 mg/dL) yielded a similar number needed to diagnose (2.5). CONCLUSIONS PreDM or PTDM develops in waitlisted patients with an ineffective insulin secretion and BMI shows a similar diagnostic capacity to OGTT. Pretransplant interventions may reduce post-transplant glucose alterations.
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Live donor kidney transplantation. Situation analysis and roadmap. Nefrologia 2022; 42:85-93. [PMID: 36153903 DOI: 10.1016/j.nefroe.2022.02.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2021] [Accepted: 03/17/2021] [Indexed: 06/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Living donor kidney transplantation (LDKT) is the best treatment option for end stage renal disease in terms of both patient and graft survival. However, figures on LDKT in Spain that had been continuously growing from 2005 to 2014, have experienced a continuous decrease in the last five years. One possible explanation for this decrease is that the significant increase in the number of deceased donors in Spain during the last years, both brain death and controlled circulatory death donors, might have generated the false idea that we have coped with the transplant needs. Moreover, a greater number of deceased donor kidney transplants have caused a heavy workload for the transplant teams. Furthermore, the transplant teams could have moved on to a more conservative approach to the information and assessment of patients and families considering the potential long-term risks for donors in recent papers. However, there is a significant variability in the LDKT rate among transplant centers and regions in Spain independent of their deceased donor rates. This fact and the fact that LDKT is usually a preemptive option for patients with advanced chronic renal failure, as time on dialysis is a negative independent factor for transplant outcomes, lead us to conclude that the decrease in LDKT depends on other factors. Thus, in the kidney transplant annual meeting held at ONT site in 2018, a working group was created to identify other causes for the decrease of LDKT in Spain and its relationship with the different steps of the process. The group was formed by transplant teams, a representative of the transplant group of the Spanish Society of Nephrology (SENTRA), a representative of the Spanish Society of Transplants (SET) and representatives of the Spanish National Transplant Organization (ONT). A self-evaluation survey that contains requests about the phases of the LDKT processes (information, donor work out, informed consent, surgeries, follow-up and human resources) were developed and sent to 33 LDKT teams. All the centers answered the questionnaire. The analysis of the answers has resulted in the creation of a national analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats (SWOT) of the LDKT program in Spain and the development of recommendations targeted to improve every step of the donation process. The work performed, the conclusions and recommendations provided, have been reflected in the following report: Spanish living donor kidney transplant program assessment: recommendations for optimization. This document has also been reviewed by a panel of experts, representatives of the scientific societies (Spanish Society of Urology (AEU), Spanish Society of Nephrology Nursery (SEDEN), Spanish Society of Immunology (SEI/GETH)) and the patient association ALCER. Finally, the report has been submitted to public consultation, reaching ample consensus. In addition, the transplant competent authorities of the different regions in Spainhave adopted the report at institutional level. The work done and the recommendations to optimize LDKT are summarized in the present manuscript, organized by the different phases of the donation process.
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Live donor kidney transplantation. Situation analysis and roadmap. Nefrologia 2021; 42:S0211-6995(21)00113-2. [PMID: 34294484 DOI: 10.1016/j.nefro.2021.03.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2021] [Accepted: 03/17/2021] [Indexed: 10/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Living donor kidney transplantation (LDKT) is the best treatment option for end stage renal disease in terms of both patient and graft survival. However, figures on LDKT in Spain that had been continuously growing from 2005 to 2014, have experienced a continuous decrease in the last five years. One possible explanation for this decrease is that the significant increase in the number of deceased donors in Spain during the last years, both brain death and controlled circulatory death donors, might have generated the false idea that we have coped with the transplant needs. Moreover, a greater number of deceased donor kidney transplants have caused a heavy workload for the transplant teams. Furthermore, the transplant teams could have moved on to a more conservative approach to the information and assessment of patients and families considering the potential long-term risks for donors in recent papers. However, there is a significant variability in the LDKT rate among transplant centers and regions in Spain independent of their deceased donor rates. This fact and the fact that LDKT is usually a preemptive option for patients with advanced chronic renal failure, as time on dialysis is a negative independent factor for transplant outcomes, lead us to conclude that the decrease in LDKT depends on other factors. Thus, in the kidney transplant annual meeting held at ONT site in 2018, a working group was created to identify other causes for the decrease of LDKT in Spain and its relationship with the different steps of the process. The group was formed by transplant teams, a representative of the transplant group of the Spanish Society of Nephrology (SENTRA), a representative of the Spanish Society of Transplants (SET) and representatives of the Spanish National Transplant Organization (ONT). A self-evaluation survey that contains requests about the phases of the LDKT processes (information, donor work out, informed consent, surgeries, follow-up and human resources) were developed and sent to 33 LDKT teams. All the centers answered the questionnaire. The analysis of the answers has resulted in the creation of a national analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats (SWOT) of the LDKT program in Spain and the development of recommendations targeted to improve every step of the donation process. The work performed, the conclusions and recommendations provided, have been reflected in the following report: Spanish living donor kidney transplant program assessment: recommendations for optimization. This document has also been reviewed by a panel of experts, representatives of the scientific societies (Spanish Society of Urology (AEU), Spanish Society of Nephrology Nursery (SEDEN), Spanish Society of Immunology (SEI/GETH)) and the patient association ALCER. Finally, the report has been submitted to public consultation, reaching ample consensus. In addition, the transplant competent authorities of the different regions in Spain have adopted the report at institutional level. The work done and the recommendations to optimize LDKT are summarized in the present manuscript, organized by the different phases of the donation process.
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Paternal safety of the use of mycophenolic acid in kidney transplant recipients. Results of the EMVARON study. Clin Transplant 2021; 35:e14256. [PMID: 33599030 DOI: 10.1111/ctr.14256] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2020] [Revised: 02/06/2021] [Accepted: 02/12/2021] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The use of mycophenolic acid (MPA) in women during pregnancy causes an increase in miscarriages and birth defects with a typical embryopathy profile. Although epidemiological data does not suggest a greater risk among the offspring of male kidney transplant recipients, the European Medicines Agency and The Spanish Agency of Medicines and Medical Devices introduced the recommendation of using contraceptive methods. METHODS We conducted a national retrospective study in 15 Spanish Kidney Transplant Centers to evaluate the frequency of miscarriages and birth defects between the offspring from male kidney transplants recipients. We included 151 males who had fathered 239 offspring, 225 under MPA and 14 without MPA. RESULTS The results of our study showed an incidence of miscarriages in the MPA group of 9.8%, and of birth defects of 4%. CONCLUSIONS We observed an incidence of miscarriages between the offspring fathered by kidney transplant males under MPA lower than the general population. The incidence of birth defects was similar to the incidence described in other studies and the fact that we did not find the typical embryopathy profile makes it difficult to associate them to the use of MPA. Because of that, we urge the European and Spanish Agencies to reconsider their recommendations for males.
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Impact of errors of creatinine and cystatin C equations in the selection of living kidney donors. Clin Kidney J 2020; 13:910. [DOI: 10.1093/ckj/sfz052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
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MO013PATERNAL SAFETY OF THE USE OF MYCOPHENOLIC ACID BY KIDNEY TRANSPLANT RECIPIENTS. RESULTS OF THE EMVARON STUDY. Nephrol Dial Transplant 2020. [DOI: 10.1093/ndt/gfaa140.mo013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background and Aims
Mycophenolic acid (MPA) is one of the most used immunosuppressive drugs. It is teratogenic in women with a typical embryopathy profile. Regarding its effect on the children of male kidney transplant recipients, although clinical evidence does not indicate a greater risk of malformations, the European Medicines Agency and the Spanish Agency for Medicines and Health Products introduced in 2015 the recommendation to use contraceptive methods because of their genotoxic potential.
For this reason, we propose to study the results of the Spanish Kidney Transplant Centers.
Method
Multicenter retrospective observational study in which 15 Kidney Transplant Centers have participated. Of 3934 men ≤ 60 years old that received a kidney transplant between 2000 and 2015, 3023 were contacted, and 159 men who fathered at least one post-transplant pregnancy (total 252 fetuses) were included. We compared the incidence of abortions and live births with malformations among those who received MPA at the time of conception vs. those who did not.
Results
In the 252 fetuses (characteristics in table 1) there was an exitus and no differences were detected in the incidence of abortions between the group exposed to MPA (n = 230) and the unexposed group (n = 22), 11.3% vs 18.2%, p = 0.31. Among the 221 live-born fetuses, no differences were found in congenital malformations between the group exposed to MPA (n = 203) and the unexposed (n = 18) 4.9% vs. 16.7%, p = 0.07. Among the malformations described, the typical embryopathy profile of the MPA was not found.
Conclusion
According to the data of this retrospective national multicenter study, the use of MPA in male kidney transplant recipients does not cause a greater number of abortions or congenital malformations.
For these reasons, and given the evidence also published by other groups, it seems necessary to reevaluate the recommendation given on contraception in men treated with MPA.
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Chronic kidney disease staging with cystatin C or creatinine-based formulas: flipping the coin. Nephrol Dial Transplant 2020; 34:287-294. [PMID: 29762739 DOI: 10.1093/ndt/gfy086] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2018] [Accepted: 03/09/2018] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) affects 10-13% of the population worldwide. CKD classification stratifies patients in five stages of risk for progressive renal disease based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) by formulas and albuminuria. However, the reliability of formulas to reflect real renal function is a matter of debate. The effect of the error of formulas in the CKD classification is unclear, particularly for cystatin C-based equations. Methods We evaluated the reliability of a large number of cystatin C and/or creatinine-based formulas in the definition of the stages of CKD in 882 subjects with different clinical situations over a wide range of glomerular filtration rates (GFRs) (4.2-173.7 mL/min). Results Misclassification was a constant for all 61 formulas evaluated and averaged 50% for creatinine-based and 35% for cystatin C-based equations. Most of the cases were misclassified as one stage higher or lower. However, in 10% of the subjects, one stage was skipped and patients were classified two stages above or below their real stage. No clinically relevant improvement was observed with cystatin C-based formulas compared with those based on creatinine. Conclusions The error in the classification of CKD stages by formulas was extremely common. Our study questions the reliability of both cystatin C and creatinine-based formulas to correctly classify CKD stages. Thus the correct classification of CKD stages based on estimated GFR is a matter of chance. This is a strong limitation in evaluating the severity of renal disease, the risk for progression and the evolution of renal dysfunction over time.
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SP265THE ESTIMATION OF GFR AND THE ADJUSTMENT FOR BSA IN OVERWEIGHT AND OBESITY: A DREADFUL COMBINATION OF TWO ERRORS. Nephrol Dial Transplant 2019. [DOI: 10.1093/ndt/gfz103.sp265] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
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Impact of errors of creatinine and cystatin C equations in the selection of living kidney donors. Clin Kidney J 2019; 12:748-755. [PMID: 31584569 PMCID: PMC6768301 DOI: 10.1093/ckj/sfz012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2018] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Reliable determination of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is crucial in the evaluation of living kidney donors. Although some guidelines recommend the use of measured GFR (mGFR), many centres still rely on estimated GFR (eGFR) obtained through equations or 24-h creatinine clearance. However, eGFR is neither accurate nor precise in reflecting real renal function. We analysed the impact of eGFR errors on evaluation and decision making regarding potential donors. Methods We evaluated 103 consecutive living donors who underwent mGFR via iohexol plasma clearance and eGFR by 51 creatinine- and/or cystatin C-based equations. The cut-off for living donation in our centre is GFR > 80 mL/min for donors >35 years of age or 90 mL/min for those <35 years of age. We analysed the misclassification of donors based on the cut-off for donation-based eGFR. Results Ninety-three subjects (90.3%) had mGFR values above (donors) and 10 [9.7% (95% confidence interval 5.4-17)] below (non-donors) the cut-off. In non-donors, most of the equations gave eGFR values above the cut-off, so donation would have been allowed based on eGFR. All non-donors were female with reduced weight, height and body surface. In donors, up to 32 cases showed eGFR below the cut-off, while mGFR was actually higher. Therefore an important number of donors would not have donated based on eGFR alone. Conclusion The misclassification of donors around the cut-off for donation is very common with eGFR, making eGFR unreliable for the evaluation of living kidney donors. Whenever possible, mGFR should be implemented in this setting.
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Randomized Controlled Trial Assessing the Impact of Tacrolimus Versus Cyclosporine on the Incidence of Posttransplant Diabetes Mellitus. Kidney Int Rep 2018; 3:1304-1315. [PMID: 30450457 PMCID: PMC6224662 DOI: 10.1016/j.ekir.2018.07.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2018] [Revised: 06/08/2018] [Accepted: 07/02/2018] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Despite the high incidence of posttransplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM) among high-risk recipients, no studies have investigated its prevention by immunosuppression optimization. METHODS We conducted an open-label, multicenter, randomized trial testing whether a tacrolimus-based immunosuppression and rapid steroid withdrawal (SW) within 1 week (Tac-SW) or cyclosporine A (CsA) with steroid minimization (SM) (CsA-SM), decreased the incidence of PTDM compared with tacrolimus with SM (Tac-SM). All arms received basiliximab and mycophenolate mofetil. High risk was defined by age >60 or >45 years plus metabolic criteria based on body mass index, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol levels. The primary endpoint was the incidence of PTDM after 12 months. RESULTS The study comprised 128 de novo renal transplant recipients without pretransplant diabetes (Tac-SW: 44, Tac-SM: 42, CsA-SM: 42). The 1-year incidence of PTDM in each arm was 37.8% for Tac-SW, 25.7% for Tac-SM, and 9.7% for CsA-SM (relative risk [RR] Tac-SW vs. CsA-SM 3.9 [1.2-12.4; P = 0.01]; RR Tac-SM vs. CsA-SM 2.7 [0.8-8.9; P = 0.1]). Antidiabetic therapy was required less commonly in the CsA-SM arm (P = 0.06); however, acute rejection rate was higher in CsA-SM arm (Tac-SW 11.4%, Tac-SM 4.8%, and CsA-SM 21.4% of patients; cumulative incidence P = 0.04). Graft and patient survival, and graft function were similar among arms. CONCLUSION In high-risk patients, tacrolimus-based immunosuppression with SM provides the best balance between PTDM and acute rejection incidence.
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SP739CAN WE TRUST IN ESTIMATED GFR DECLINE IN RENAL TRANSPLANTION? THE NEPHROLOGIST IN THE MIST. Nephrol Dial Transplant 2017. [DOI: 10.1093/ndt/gfx157.sp739] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
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MP799CAN WE TRUST ESTIMATED GLOMERULAR FILTRATION RATE N THE EVALUATION OF LIVING KIDNEY DONORS? Nephrol Dial Transplant 2017. [DOI: 10.1093/ndt/gfx182.mp799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
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Clinical evolution of post-transplant diabetes mellitus. Nephrol Dial Transplant 2015; 31:495-505. [DOI: 10.1093/ndt/gfv368] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2015] [Accepted: 09/22/2015] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
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Role of apolipoprotein E epsilon 4 allele on chronic allograft nephropathy after renal transplantation. Transplant Proc 2005; 36:2982-4. [PMID: 15686675 DOI: 10.1016/j.transproceed.2004.10.038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Lipid abnormalities may contribute to chronic allograft nephropathy (CAN). Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) gene polymorphism regulates lipoprotein metabolism, but little is known about an association between CAN and this polymorphism. The ApoE gene (E3/E4) polymorphism was typed by PCR assay (99 E3/E3, 28 E3/E4, 1 E4/E4) on 128 consecutive renal transplant patients with functioning grafts for more than 3 years (6.7 +/- 2.8 years). Twenty-eight patients with histological CAN were compared with 100 patients who had no clinical evidence of chronic rejection (no proteinuria and sCr < 2.5 mg%). As expected, univariate analysis revealed that patients with CAN experienced a greater acute rejection rate (78% vs 21%; P=.001), a higher serum creatinine (3.6 +/- 1.7 vs 1.4 +/- 0.5 mg%; P=.0001), and an older organ donor (43 +/- 20 vs 29 +/- 13 years; P=.0001). The lipid profiles (total cholesterol and triglycerides levels) were similar in both groups with 60% in each group receiving anti-lipemic drugs. Interestingly, the ApoE epsilon 4 allele was overrepresented in the group with CAN (39% vs 17%, P=.019). Logistic regression analysis showed that the epsilon 4 allele was an independent predictor of CAN (OR: 3.4; CI 95%: 1.07 to 11; P=.040) as were donor age and acute rejection episodes. In conclusion, an interaction between risk factors and genetic factors may determine CAN in this population. This finding may help to target prophylactic interventions in these recipients.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND Vascular calcifications (VC) are a well-known cardiovascular risk factor (CVRF) in uremic patients. However, their role on mortality after renal transplantation (RT) is unclear. METHODS In 1117 RT recipients, we investigated the association between long-term survival and the presence of VC, evaluated by preoperative posteroanterior plain radiography from aorto-iliac region, at the time of RT. The primary study outcome was all-cause mortality. Other perioperative CVRF were also collected. RESULTS VC were observed in 273 patients (24.4%) before RT; additionally, 132 (12%) patients died during follow-up, due, mainly, to cardiovascular (39%) or infectious (24%) complications. As expected, patients with VC showed a higher age and a greater number of CVRF than those without VC. Overall mortality rate was also higher in VC group (19 vs. 9.5%; P= 0.0001), as well as cardiovascular mortality (9.5 vs. 3.1; P= 0.048). Multivariate Cox model showed that VC were predictor of overall mortality [relative risk (RR) 1.8; 95% CI 1.1-2.8; P= 0.015] and cardiovascular mortality (RR 2.6; 95%CI 1.1-6); P= 0.033), independently of other CVRF. An interaction between the presence of VC and diabetes was found. The effect of VC on mortality was evident in nondiabetic patients, that is, those with VC had a significantly higher mortality rate than patients without VC (21 vs. 9%; P= 0.0001). By contrast, these differences were not observed in diabetic patients (16.5 vs. 14.3%; P= 0.656). CONCLUSION VC evaluated by a simple and inexpensive plain radiography are an independent predictor of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality following RT. This finding may encourage the implementation of appropriate therapeutic strategies after RT.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND Prognostic indices that estimate long-term mortality are essential not only to compare different clinical studies and populations but also to perform the most appropriate therapeutic interventions. All-cause mortality is high after renal transplantation (RTx), but no prognostic index has focused on predicting mortality in RTx. We developed and tested a prognostic index for mortality in RTx after hospitalization. METHODS We retrospectively analyzed survival in 1,293 RTx recipients who were randomly assigned to two groups: a modeling population (n=646), used to create the new index, and a testing population (n=647), used to test this index. Patients were stratified into three risk groups (low, medium, and high) by combining peritransplant risk factors for mortality (beta-coefficient), using a simple eight-point check list: age, pretransplant cardiovascular disease, renal dysfunction at discharge, cardiac hypertrophy, vascular calcification, diabetes, time on dialysis, and acute tubular necrosis. RESULTS Overall lower survival rates were observed with increasing risk classes in the testing population (log-rank test=18; P=0.0001). The 8-year survival rates ranged from 94% in the lowest-risk group to 59% in the highest-risk group. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.63. Mortality risk (Cox analysis) significantly increased with increasing risk classes (medium risk: relative risk=3.8, 95% confidence interval=1.5-9.5, P=0.004; high risk: relative risk=6.3, 95% confidence interval=2.4-16.2, P=0.0001). CONCLUSIONS This simple prognostic index applicable at the bedside may accurately predict survival in RTx recipients after discharge. Consequently, targeted treatment interventions may be indicated for minimizing mortality, especially in high-risk groups.
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