Revised Recommendations on Methods for Assessing Multimorbidity Changes over Time: Aligning the Method to the Purpose

BACKGROUND

The rapidly growing field of multimorbidity research demonstrates that changes in multimorbidity in mid- and late-life have far reaching effects on important person-centered outcomes, such as health-related quality of life. However, there are few organizing frameworks and comparatively little work weighing the merits and limitations of various quantitative methods applied to the longitudinal study of multimorbidity.

METHODS

We identify and discuss methods aligned to specific research objectives with the goals of 1) establishing a common language for assessing longitudinal changes in multimorbidity, 2) illuminating gaps in our knowledge regarding multimorbidity progression and critical periods of change, and 3) informing research to identify groups that experience different rates and divergent etiological pathways of disease progression linked to deterioration in important health-related outcomes.

RESULTS

We review practical issues in the measurement of multimorbidity, longitudinal analysis of health-related data, operationalizing change over time, and discuss methods that align with four general typologies for research objectives in the longitudinal study of multimorbidity: 1) examine individual change in multimorbidity, 2) identify sub-groups that follow similar trajectories of multimorbidity progression, 3) understand when, how, and why individuals or groups shift to more advanced stages of multimorbidity, and 4) examine the co-progression of multimorbidity with key health domains.

CONCLUSION

This work encourages a systematic approach to the quantitative study of change in multimorbidity and provides a valuable resource for researchers working to measure and minimize the deleterious effects of multimorbidity on aging populations.

Mental-somatic multimorbidity in trajectories of cognitive function for middle-aged and older adults

INTRODUCTION

Multimorbidity may confer higher risk for cognitive decline than any single constituent disease. This study aims to identify distinct trajectories of cognitive impairment probability among middle-aged and older adults, and to assess the effect of changes in mental-somatic multimorbidity on these distinct trajectories.

METHODS

Data from the Health and Retirement Study (1998-2016) were employed to estimate group-based trajectory models identifying distinct trajectories of cognitive impairment probability. Four time-varying mental-somatic multimorbidity combinations (somatic, stroke, depressive, stroke and depressive) were examined for their association with observed trajectories of cognitive impairment probability with age. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to quantify the association of sociodemographic and health-related factors with trajectory group membership.

RESULTS

Respondents (N = 20,070) had a mean age of 61.0 years (SD = 8.7) at baseline. Three distinct cognitive trajectories were identified using group-based trajectory modelling: (1) Low risk with late-life increase (62.6%), (2) Low initial risk with rapid increase (25.7%), and (3) High risk (11.7%). For adults following along Low risk with late-life increase, the odds of cognitive impairment for stroke and depressive multimorbidity (OR:3.92, 95%CI:2.91,5.28) were nearly two times higher than either stroke multimorbidity (OR:2.06, 95%CI:1.75,2.43) or depressive multimorbidity (OR:2.03, 95%CI:1.71,2.41). The odds of cognitive impairment for stroke and depressive multimorbidity in Low initial risk with rapid increase or High risk (OR:4.31, 95%CI:3.50,5.31; OR:3.43, 95%CI:2.07,5.66, respectively) were moderately higher than stroke multimorbidity (OR:2.71, 95%CI:2.35, 3.13; OR: 3.23, 95%CI:2.16, 4.81, respectively). In the multinomial logistic regression model, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic respondents had higher odds of being in Low initial risk with rapid increase and High risk relative to non-Hispanic White adults.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings show that depressive and stroke multimorbidity combinations have the greatest association with rapid cognitive declines and their prevention may postpone these declines, especially in socially disadvantaged and minoritized groups.

Longitudinal Care Network Changes and Associated Healthcare Utilization Among Care Recipients

This study examines caregiver networks, including size, composition, and stability, and their associations with the likelihood of hospitalization and skilled-nursing facility (SNF) admissions. Data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study linked to Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services data were analyzed for 3855 older adults across five survey waves. Generalized estimating equation models assessed the associations. The findings indicate each additional paid caregiver was associated with higher adjusted risk ratios (aRR) for hospitalization (aRR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.10-1.41) and SNF admission (aRR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.06-1.54) among care recipients, a pattern that is also observed with the addition of unpaid caregivers (hospitalization: aRR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.06-1.20; SNF: aRR = 1.12, 95% CI 1.02-1.23). These results suggest that policies and approaches to enhance the quality and coordination of caregivers may be warranted to support improved outcomes for care recipients.

Mapping racial and ethnic healthcare disparities for persons living with dementia: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

We set out to map evidence of disparities in Alzheimer's disease and Alzheimer's disease related dementias healthcare, including issues of access, quality, and outcomes for racial/ethnic minoritized persons living with dementia (PLWD) and family caregivers.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review of the literature published from 2000 to 2022 in PubMed, PsycINFO, and CINAHL. The inclusion criteria were: (1) focused on PLWD and/or family caregivers, (2) examined disparities or differences in healthcare, (3) were conducted in the United States, (4) compared two or more racial/ethnic groups, and (5) reported quantitative or qualitative findings.

RESULTS

Key findings include accumulating evidence that minoritized populations are less likely to receive an accurate and timely diagnosis, be prescribed anti-dementia medications, and use hospice care, and more likely to have a higher risk of hospitalization and receive more aggressive life-sustaining treatment at the end-of-life.

DISCUSSION

Future studies need to examine underlying processes and develop interventions to reduce disparities while also being more broadly inclusive of diverse populations.

Preparing for pragmatic trials in dementia care: Health equity considerations for nonpharmacological interventions

Inequities with regard to brain health, economic costs, and the evidence base for dementia care continue. Achieving health equity in dementia care requires rigorous efforts that ensure disproportionately affected populations participate fully in-and benefit from-clinical research. Embedding-proven interventions under real-world conditions and within existing healthcare systems have the potential to examine the effectiveness of an intervention, improve dementia care, and leverage the use of existing resources. Developing embedded pragmatic controlled trials (ePCT) research designs for nonpharmacological dementia care interventions involves a plethora of a priori assumptions and decisions. Although frameworks exist to determine whether interventions are "ready" for ePCT, there is no heuristic to assess health equity-readiness. We discuss health equity considerations, case examples, and research strategies across ePCT study domains of evidence, risk, and alignment. Future discussions regarding health equity considerations across other domains are needed.

A Joint Model for Disability, Self-Rated Health, and Mortality Among Medicare Beneficiaries-Differences by Chronic Disease and Race/Ethnicity

OBJECTIVES

Quantifying interdependence in multiple patient-centered outcomes is important for understanding health declines among older adults.

METHODS

Medicare-linked National Health and Aging Trends Study data (2011-2015) were used to estimate a joint longitudinal logistic regression model of disability in activities of daily living (ADL), fair/poor self-rated health (SRH), and mortality. We calculated personalized concurrent risk (PCR) and typical concurrent risk (TCR) using regression coefficients.

RESULTS

For fair/poor SRH, highest odds were associated with COPD. For mortality, highest odds were associated with dementia, hip fracture, and kidney disease. Dementia and hip fracture were associated with highest odds of ADL disability. Hispanic respondents had highest odds of ADL disability. Hispanic and NH Black respondents had higher odds of fair/poor SRH, ADL disability, and mortality. PCRs/TCRs demonstrated wide variability for respondents with similar sociodemographic-multimorbidity profiles.

DISCUSSION

These findings highlight the variability of personalized risk in examining interdependent outcomes among older adults.

Impact of Health Insurance Patterns on Chronic Health Conditions Among Older Patients

BACKGROUND

Patients have varying levels of chronic conditions and health insurance patterns as they become Medicare age-eligible. Understanding these dynamics will inform policies and reforms that direct capacity and resources for primary care clinics to care for these aging patients. This study 1) determined changes in chronic condition rates following Medicare age eligibility among patients with different insurance patterns and 2) estimated the number of chronically ill patients who remain inadequately insured post-Medicare eligibility among patients receiving care in community health centers.

METHOD

We used retrospective electronic health record data from 45,527 patients aged 62 to 68 from 990 community health centers in 25 states in 2014 to 2019. Insurance patterns (continuously insured, continuously uninsured, uninsured/discontinuously insured who gained insurance after age 65, lost insurance after age 65, discontinuously insured) and diagnosis of chronic conditions were defined at each visit pre- and post-Medicare eligibility. Difference-in-differences Poisson GEE models estimated changes of chronic condition rates by insurance groups pre- to post-Medicare age eligibility.

RESULTS

Post-Medicare eligibility, 72% patients were continuously insured, 14% gained insurance; and 14% were uninsured or discontinuously insured. The prevalence of multimorbidity (≥2 chronic conditions) was 77%. Those who gained insurance had a significantly larger increase in the rate of documented chronic conditions from pre- to post-Medicare (DID: 1.06, 95%CI:1.05-1.07) compared with the continuously insured group.

CONCLUSIONS

Post-Medicare age eligibility, a significant proportion of patients were diagnosed with new conditions leading to high burden of disease. One in 4 older adults continue to have inadequate health care coverage in their older age.

Racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic disparities in trajectories of morbidity accumulation among older Americans

Introduction

Multimorbidity, the presence of multiple chronic health conditions, generally starts in middle and older age but there is considerable heterogeneity in the trajectory of morbidity accumulation. This study aimed to clarify the number of distinct trajectories and the potential associations between race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status and these trajectories.

Methods

Data from 13,699 respondents (age ≥51) in the Health and Retirement Study between 1998 and 2016 were analyzed with growth mixture models. Nine prevalent self-reported morbidities (arthritis, cancer, cognitive impairment, depressive symptoms, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, lung disease, stroke) were summed for the morbidity count.

Results

Three trajectories of morbidity accumulation were identified: low [starting with few morbidities and accumulating them slowly (i.e., low intercept and low slope); 80% of sample], increasing (i.e., low intercept and high slope; 9%), and high (i.e., high intercept and low slope; 11%). Compared to non-Hispanic (NH) White adults in covariate-adjusted models, NH Black adults had disadvantages while Hispanic adults had advantages. Our results suggest a protective effect of education for NH Black adults (i.e., racial health disparities observed at low education were ameliorated and then eliminated at increasing levels of education) and a reverse pattern for Hispanic adults (i.e., increasing levels of education was found to dampen the advantages Hispanic adults had at low education). Compared with NH White adults, higher levels of wealth were protective for both NH Black adults (i.e., reducing or reversing racial health disparities observed at low wealth) and Hispanic adults (i.e., increasing the initial health advantages observed at low wealth).

Conclusion

These findings have implications for addressing health disparities through more precise targeting of public health interventions. This work highlights the imperative to address socioeconomic inequalities that interact with race/ethnicity in complex ways to erode health.

Trajectories of Chronic Disease and Multimorbidity Among Middle-aged and Older Patients at Community Health Centers

Importance

Health-related consequences of multimorbidity (≥2 chronic diseases) are well documented. However, the extent and rate of accumulation of chronic diseases among US patients seeking care in safety-net clinics are not well understood. These insights are needed to enable clinicians, administrators, and policy makers to mobilize resources for prevention of disease escalations in this population.

Objectives

To identify the patterns and rate of chronic disease accumulation among middle-aged and older patients seeking care in community health centers, as well as any sociodemographic differences.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used electronic health record data from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2019, on 725 107 adults aged 45 years or older with 2 or more ambulatory care visits in 2 or more distinct years at 657 primary care clinics in the Advancing Data Value Across a National Community Health Center network in 26 US states. Statistical analysis was performed from September 2021 to February 2023.

Exposures

Race and ethnicity, age, insurance coverage, and federal poverty level (FPL).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Patient-level chronic disease burden, operationalized as the sum of 22 chronic diseases recommended by the Multiple Chronic Conditions Framework. Linear mixed models with patient-level random effects adjusted for demographic characteristics and ambulatory visit frequency with time interactions were estimated to compare accrual by race and ethnicity, age, income, and insurance coverage.

Results

The analytic sample included 725 107 patients (417 067 women [57.5%]; 359 255 [49.5%] aged 45-54 years, 242 571 [33.5%] aged 55-64 years, and 123 281 [17.0%] aged ≥65 years). On average, patients started with a mean (SD) of 1.7 (1.7) morbidities and ended with 2.6 (2.0) morbidities over a mean (SD) of 4.2 (2.0) years of follow-up. Compared with non-Hispanic White patients, patients in racial and ethnic minoritized groups had marginally lower adjusted annual rates of accrual of conditions (-0.03 [95% CI, -0.03 to -0.03] for Spanish-preferring Hispanic patients; -0.02 [95% CI, -0.02 to -0.01] for English-preferring Hispanic patients; -0.01 [95% CI, -0.01 to -0.01] for non-Hispanic Black patients; and -0.04 [95% CI, -0.05 to -0.04] for non-Hispanic Asian patients). Older patients accrued conditions at higher annual rates compared with patients 45 to 50 years of age (0.03 [95% CI, 0.02-0.03] for 50-55 years; 0.03 [95% CI, 0.03-0.04] for 55-60 years; 0.04 [95% CI, 0.04-0.04] for 60-65 years; and 0.05 [95% CI, 0.05-0.05] for ≥65 years). Compared with those with higher income (always ≥138% of the FPL), patients with income less than 138% of the FPL (0.04 [95% CI, 0.04-0.05]), mixed income (0.01 [95% CI, 0.01-0.01]), or unknown income levels (0.04 [95% CI, 0.04-0.04]) had higher annual accrual rates. Compared with continuously insured patients, continuously uninsured and discontinuously insured patients had lower annual accrual rates (continuously uninsured, -0.003 [95% CI, -0.005 to -0.001]; discontinuously insured, -0.004 [95% CI, -0.005 to -0.003]).

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study of middle-aged patients seeking care in community health centers suggests that disease accrued at high rates for patients' chronological age. Targeted efforts for chronic disease prevention are needed for patients near or below the poverty line.

Simultaneously Developing Interventions for Low-/Middle-Income and High-Income Settings: Considerations and Opportunities

Most older adults reside in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) but most research dollars spent on interventions to improve the lives of older adults are awarded to researchers in high-income countries (HICs). One approach to improve the implementation of evidence-based innovations for older adults in LMICs is designing interventions that are relevant to LMICs and HICs simultaneously. We propose that researchers in HICs could partner with stakeholders in an LMIC throughout the intervention design process to better position their intervention for the implementation in that LMIC. We provide an example study from an adaptation of the Resources for Enhancing Caregiver Health II in Vietnam, which did not use this strategy but may have benefited from this strategy. We then turn to several considerations that are important for researchers to contemplate when incorporating this strategy. Finally, we explore incentives for creating interventions that are relevant to both HICs and LMICs for funders, intervention designers, and intervention receivers. Although this is not the only strategy to bring interventions to LMICs, it may represent another tool in researchers' toolboxes to help expedite the implementation of efficacious interventions in LMICs.

Multimorbidity and Functional Disability among Older Adults: The Role of Inflammation and Glycemic Status - An Observational Longitudinal Study

INTRODUCTION

Specific multimorbidity combinations, in particular those including arthritis, stroke, and cognitive impairment, have been associated with high burden of activities of daily living (ADL)-instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) disability in older adults. The biologic underpinnings of these associations are still unclear.

METHODS

Observational longitudinal study using data from the Health and Retirement Study (N = 8,618, mean age = 74 years, 58% female, 25% non-white) and negative binomial regression models stratified by sex to evaluate the role of inflammatory and glycemic biomarkers (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and HbA1c) in the association between specific multimorbidity combinations (grouped around one of eight index diseases: arthritis, cancer, cognitive impairment, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, lung disease, and stroke; assessed between 2006 and 2014) and prospective ADL-IADL disability (2 years later, 2008-2016). Results were adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, body mass index, number of coexisting diseases, and baseline ADL-IADL score.

RESULTS

Multimorbidity combinations indexed by arthritis (IRR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.01-1.20), diabetes (IRR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.09-1.30), and cognitive impairment (IRR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.01-1.23) among men and diabetes-indexed multimorbidity combinations (IRR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.01-1.14) among women were associated with higher ADL-IADL scores at increasing levels of HbA1c. Across higher levels of hs-CRP, multimorbidity combinations indexed by arthritis (IRR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02-1.11), hypertension (IRR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02-1.11), heart disease (IRR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.01-1.12), and lung disease (IRR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.07-1.23) were associated with higher ADL-IADL scores among women, while there were no significant associations among men.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest potential for anti-inflammatory management among older women and optimal glycemic control among older men with these particular multimorbidity combinations as focus for therapeutic/preventive options for maintaining functional health.

Depressive Multimorbidity and Trajectories of Functional Status among Older Americans: Differences by Racial/Ethnic Group

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to evaluate the impact of depressive multimorbidity (ie, including depressive symptoms) on the long-term development of activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) limitations according to racial/ethnic group in a representative sample of US older adults.

DESIGN

Prospective, observational, population-based 16-year follow-up study of nationally representative sample.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Sample of older non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and nonHispanic White Americans from the Health and Retirement Study (2000‒2016, N = 16,364, community-dwelling adults ≥65 years of age).

METHODS

Data from 9 biennial assessments were used to evaluate the accumulation of ADL-IADL limitations (range 0‒11) among participants with depressive (8-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression score≥4) vs somatic (ie, physical conditions only) multimorbidity vs those without multimorbidity (no or 1 condition). Generalized estimating equations included race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic White), baseline age, sex, body mass index, education, partnered, and net worth.

RESULTS

Depressive and somatic multimorbidity were associated with 5.18 and 2.95 times greater accumulation of functional limitations, respectively, relative to no disease [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 5.18, 95% confidence interval, CI (4.38,6.13), IRR = 2.95, 95% CI (2.51,3.48)]. Hispanic and Black respondents experienced greater accumulation of ADL-IADL limitations than White respondents [IRR = 1.27, 95% CI (1.14, 1.41), IRR = 1.31, 95% CI (1.20, 1.43), respectively].

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Combinations of somatic diseases and high depressive symptoms are associated with greatest accumulation of functional limitations over time in adults ages 65 and older. There is a more rapid growth in functional limitations among individuals from racial/ethnic minority groups. Given the high prevalence of multimorbidity and depressive symptomatology among older adults and the availability of treatment options for depression, these results highlight the importance of screening/treatment for depression, particularly among older adults with socioeconomic vulnerabilities, to slow the progression of functional decline in later life.

Health equity considerations in pragmatic trials in Alzheimer's and dementia disease: Results from a methodological review

Introduction

To improve dementia care delivery for persons across all backgrounds, it is imperative that health equity is integrated into pragmatic trials.

Methods

We reviewed 62 pragmatic trials of people with dementia published 2014 to 2019. We assessed health equity in the objectives; design, conduct, analysis; and reporting using PROGRESS-Plus which stands for Place of residence, Race/ethnicity, Occupation, Gender/sex, Religion, Education, Socioeconomic status, Social capital, and other factors such as age and disability.

Results

Two (3.2%) trials incorporated equity considerations into their objectives; nine (14.5%) engaged with communities; 4 (6.5%) described steps to increase enrollment from equity-relevant groups. Almost all trials (59, 95.2%) assessed baseline balance for at least one PROGRESS-Plus characteristic, but only 10 (16.1%) presented subgroup analyses across such characteristics. Differential recruitment, attrition, implementation, adherence, and applicability across PROGRESS-Plus were seldom discussed.

Discussion

Ongoing and future pragmatic trials should more rigorously integrate equity considerations in their design, conduct, and reporting.

Highlights

Few pragmatic trials are explicitly designed to inform equity-relevant objectives.Few pragmatic trials take steps to increase enrollment from equity-relevant groups.Disaggregated results across equity-relevant groups are seldom reported.Adherence to existing tools (e.g., IMPACT Best Practices, CONSORT-Equity) is key.

The Contribution of Chronic Conditions to Hospitalization, Skilled Nursing Facility Admission, and Death: Variation by Race

Multimorbidity (≥2 chronic conditions) is a common and important marker of aging. To better understand racial differences in multimorbidity burden and associations with important health-related outcomes, we assessed differences in the contribution of chronic conditions to hospitalization, skilled nursing facility admission, and mortality among non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White older adults in the United States. We used data from a nationally representative study, the National Health and Aging Trends Study, linked to Medicare claims from 2011-2015 (n = 4,871 respondents). This analysis improved upon prior research by identifying the absolute contributions of chronic conditions using a longitudinal extension of the average attributable fraction for Black and White Medicare beneficiaries. We found that cardiovascular conditions were the greatest contributors to outcomes among White respondents, while the greatest contributor to outcomes for Black respondents was renal morbidity. This study provides important insights into racial differences in the contributions of chronic conditions to costly health-care utilization and mortality, and it prompts policy-makers to champion delivery reforms that will expand access to preventive and ongoing care for diverse Medicare beneficiaries.

Prevalent Multimorbidity Combinations Among Middle-Aged and Older Adults Seen in Community Health Centers

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity (≥ 2 chronic diseases) is associated with greater disability and higher treatment burden, as well as difficulty coordinating self-management tasks for adults with complex multimorbidity patterns. Comparatively little work has focused on assessing multimorbidity patterns among patients seeking care in community health centers (CHCs).

OBJECTIVE

To identify and characterize prevalent multimorbidity patterns in a multi-state network of CHCs over a 5-year period.

DESIGN

A cohort study of the 2014-2019 ADVANCE multi-state CHC clinical data network. We identified the most prevalent multimorbidity combination patterns and assessed the frequency of patterns throughout a 5-year period as well as the demographic characteristics of patient panels by prevalent patterns.

PARTICIPANTS

The study included data from 838,642 patients aged ≥ 45 years who were seen in 337 CHCs across 22 states between 2014 and 2019.

MAIN MEASURES

Prevalent multimorbidity patterns of somatic, mental health, and mental-somatic combinations of 22 chronic diseases based on the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Multiple Chronic Conditions framework: anxiety, arthritis, asthma, autism, cancer, cardiac arrhythmia, chronic kidney disease (CKD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, dementia, depression, diabetes, hepatitis, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hyperlipidemia, hypertension, osteoporosis, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), schizophrenia, substance use disorder, and stroke.

KEY RESULTS

Multimorbidity is common among middle-aged and older patients seen in CHCs: 40% have somatic, 6% have mental health, and 24% have mental-somatic multimorbidity patterns. The most frequently occurring pattern across all years is hyperlipidemia-hypertension. The three most frequent patterns are various iterations of hyperlipidemia, hypertension, and diabetes and are consistent in rank of occurrence across all years. CKD-hyperlipidemia-hypertension and anxiety-depression are both more frequent in later study years.

CONCLUSIONS

CHCs are increasingly seeing more complex multimorbidity patterns over time; these most often involve mental health morbidity and advanced cardiometabolic-renal morbidity.

Comparing the association between multiple chronic conditions, multimorbidity, frailty, and survival among older patients with cancer

INTRODUCTION

The high prevalence of multiple chronic conditions (MCC), multimorbidity, and frailty may affect treatment and outcomes for older adults with cancer. The goal of this study was to use three conceptually distinct measures of morbidity to examine the association between these measures and mortality.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using Medicare claims data linked with the 2012-2016 Ohio Cancer Incidence Surveillance System we identified older adults with incident primary cancer sites of breast, colorectal, lung, or prostate (n = 29,140). We used claims data to identify their Elixhauser comorbidities, Multimorbidity-Weighted Index (MWI), and Claims Frailty Index (CFI) as measures of MCC, multimorbidity, and frailty, respectively. We used Cox proportional hazard models to examine the association between these measures and survival time since diagnosis.

RESULTS

Lung cancer patients had the highest levels of MCC, multimorbidity, and frailty. There was a positive association between all three measures and a greater hazard of death after adjusting for age, sex (colorectal and lung only), and stage. Breast cancer patients with 5+ comorbidities had an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 1.63 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.38, 1.93), and those with mild frailty had an aHR of 3.38 (95% CI; 2.12, 5.41). The C statistics for breast cancer were 0.79, 0.78, and 0.79 for the MCC, MWI, and CFI respectively. Similarly, lung cancer patients who were moderately or severely frail had an aHR of 1.82 (95% CI: 1.53, 2.18) while prostate cancer patients had an aHR of 3.39 (95% CI: 2.12, 5.41) and colorectal cancer patients had an aHR of 4.51 (95% CI: 3.23, 6.29). Model performance was nearly identical across the MCC, multimorbidity, and frailty models within cancer type. The models performed best for prostate and breast cancer, and notably worse for lung cancer. The frailty models showed the greatest separation in unadjusted survival curves.

DISCUSSION

The MCC, multimorbidity, and frailty indices performed similarly well in predicting mortality among a large cohort of older cancer patients. However, there were notable differences by cancer type. This work highlights that although model performance is similar, frailty may serve as a clearer indicator in risk stratification of geriatric oncology patients than simple MCCs or multimorbidity.

Association of Medicare bundled payment model with joint replacement care for people with dementia

BACKGROUND

We examined whether the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) model was associated with changes in the receipt of joint replacement among people with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) as well as spending, health service use, and postsurgical outcomes among people with ADRD who underwent a joint replacement surgery.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study using 2013-2017 Medicare claims and Minimum Data Set. We used a difference-in-differences analysis to compare people with ADRD residing in CJR-participating treatment areas versus nonparticipating control areas on the receipt of joint replacement, episode spending during the index hospitalization and subsequent 90-day post-discharge period, discharges to an institutional post-acute care setting, and readmissions within 90 days of hospital discharge.

RESULTS

Our sample included 3,361,950 Medicare enrollees with ADRD (2,156,995 women [64%]; mean [SD] age, 83 [8.0] years; 2,646,405 white [78%], 344,478 black [10%], 224,010 Hispanic [7%]). The receipt of replacement among people with ADRD changed similarly between CJR-participating treatment and control areas after CJR model was implemented, suggesting no association of CJR model with the receipt of replacement. Among people with ADRD who received joint replacement, the CJR model was associated with a $1029 decrease in spending per episode (95% confidence interval [CI] -$1577, -$481, p < 0.001), a 1.62 percentage point decrease in discharges to an institutional post-acute care setting (95% CI -3.17, -0.07, p = 0.04), but no changes in 90-day readmission (95% CI -2.68, 0.00, p = 0.051).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite concerns that the CJR model could hinder people with ADRD from receiving joint replacement, the receipt of joint replacement did not change among people with ADRD under CJR. The CJR model was associated with decreased spending for people with ADRD who received joint replacements, driven by reduced discharges to an institutional post-acute care setting, without any changes in 90-day readmission.

Smoking-Cessation Assistance Among Older Adults by Ethnicity/Language Preference

INTRODUCTION

Although smoking prevalence is lower among Hispanic adults than among non-Hispanic White adults, smoking remains a leading cause of preventable death among older Hispanics. This study examines the differences in tobacco assessment and smoking-cessation assistance among older patients seen in community health centers by ethnicity and language preference.

METHODS

Electronic health record data were extracted from the Accelerating Data Value Across a National Community Health Center Network of community health centers from patients aged 55‒80 years with ≥1 primary care visit between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2018. Binary outcomes included tobacco use assessment and, among those with ≥1 status indicating current smoking, having a smoking-cessation medication ordered. The independent variable combined ethnicity and language preference, categorized as non-Hispanic White (reference), Spanish-preferring Hispanic, and English-preferring Hispanic. Multivariable generalized estimating equation logistic regressions, clustering by primary care clinic using an exchangeable working correlation structure, modeled the odds of tobacco use assessment and cessation medication orders by ethnicity/preferred language, adjusting for patient covariates, health system, and clinic location. Analyses were conducted in 2021.

RESULTS

The study included 116,328 patients. Spanish-preferring Hispanic patients had significantly lower odds of having tobacco use assessed than non-Hispanic White patients (AOR=0.89, 95% CI=0.82, 0.95). Both Spanish- and English-preferring Hispanic patients had lower odds of having a smoking-cessation medication ordered (AOR=0.53, 95% CI=0.47, 0.60; AOR=0.77, 95% CI=0.67, 0.89, respectively) than non-Hispanic White patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant disparities were found in tobacco assessment and cessation assistance by ethnicity and language preference among older adults seen in safety-net clinics. Future research is needed to understand the etiology of these smoking-related disparities.

Physical Activity as a Mediator Between Race/Ethnicity and Changes in Multimorbidity

OBJECTIVES

Studies report racial/ethnic disparities in multimorbidity (≥2 chronic conditions) and their rate of accumulation over time as well as differences in physical activity. Our study aimed to investigate whether racial/ethnic differences in the accumulation of multimorbidity were mediated by physical activity among middle-aged and older adults.

METHOD

We assessed racial/ethnic differences in the accumulation of multimorbidity (of 9 conditions) over 12 years (2004-2016) in the Health and Retirement Study (N = 18,264, mean age = 64.4 years). Structural equation modeling was used to estimate latent growth curve models of changes in multimorbidity and investigate whether the relationship of race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic White participants) to changes in the number of chronic conditions was mediated by physical activity after controlling for age, sex, education, marital status, household wealth, insurance coverage, smoking, alcohol, and body weight.

RESULTS

There was a significant increase in multimorbidity over time. Initial levels and changes in multimorbidity over time varied significantly across individuals. Indirect effects of the relationship between race/ethnicity and changes in multimorbidity as mediated by physical activity were significant, consistent with the mediational hypothesis. Black respondents engaged in significantly lower levels of physical activity than White respondents after controlling for covariates, but there were no differences between Hispanic and White respondents once education was included. Discussion: These results provide important new information for understanding how modifiable lifestyle factors may help explain disparities in multimorbidity in mid-to-late life, suggesting greater need to intervene to reduce sedentary behavior and increase physical activity.

Prediction of Future Health Care Utilization Through Note-extracted Psychosocial Factors

BACKGROUND

Persons with multimorbidity (≥2 chronic conditions) face an increased risk of poor health outcomes, especially as they age. Psychosocial factors such as social isolation, chronic stress, housing insecurity, and financial insecurity have been shown to exacerbate these outcomes, but are not routinely assessed during the clinical encounter. Our objective was to extract these concepts from chart notes using natural language processing and predict their impact on health care utilization for patients with multimorbidity.

METHODS

A cohort study to predict the 1-year likelihood of hospitalizations and emergency department visits for patients 65+ with multimorbidity with and without psychosocial factors. Psychosocial factors were extracted from narrative notes; all other covariates were extracted from electronic health record data from a large academic medical center using validated algorithms and concept sets. Logistic regression was performed to predict the likelihood of hospitalization and emergency department visit in the next year.

RESULTS

In all, 76,479 patients were eligible; the majority were White (89%), 54% were female, with mean age 73. Those with psychosocial factors were older, had higher baseline utilization, and more chronic illnesses. The 4 psychosocial factors all independently predicted future utilization (odds ratio=1.27-2.77, C -statistic=0.63). Accounting for demographics, specific conditions, and previous utilization, 3 of 4 of the extracted factors remained predictive (odds ratio=1.13-1.86) for future utilization. Compared with models with no psychosocial factors, they had improved discrimination. Individual predictions were mixed, with social isolation predicting depression and morbidity; stress predicting atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease onset; and housing insecurity predicting substance use disorder morbidity.

DISCUSSION

Psychosocial factors are known to have adverse health impacts, but are rarely measured; using natural language processing, we extracted factors that identified a higher risk segment of older adults with multimorbidity. Combining these extraction techniques with other measures of social determinants may help catalyze population health efforts to address psychosocial factors to mitigate their health impacts.

Cohort Trends in the Burden of Multiple Chronic Conditions Among Aging U.S. Adults

OBJECTIVES

Multimorbidity, also referred to as multiple chronic conditions (MCCs), is the concurrent presence of 2 or more chronic health conditions. Increasing multimorbidity represents a substantial threat to the health of aging populations. Recent trends suggest greater risk of poor health and mortality among later-born cohorts, yet we are unaware of work examining cohort differences in multimorbidity among aging U.S. adults.

METHODS

We examine intercohort variation in MCC burden in adults aged 51 years and older using 20 years (n = 33,598; 1998-2018) of repeated assessment drawn from the Health and Retirement Study. The index of MCCs included 9 chronic conditions (heart disease, hypertension, stroke, diabetes, arthritis, lung disease, cancer excluding skin cancer, high depressive symptoms, and cognitive impairment). We used linear mixed models with various approaches to estimate age/period/cohort effects to model intercohort patterns in MCC burden. We also explored variation in the specific conditions driving cohort differences in multimorbidity.

RESULTS

More recent cohorts had greater MCC burden and developed multimorbidity at earlier ages than those born to prior generations. The burden of chronic conditions was patterned by life-course sociodemographic factors and childhood health for all cohorts. Among adults with multimorbidity, arthritis and hypertension were the most prevalent conditions for all cohorts, and there was evidence that high depressive symptoms and diabetes contributed to the observed cohort differences in multimorbidity risk.

DISCUSSION

Our results suggest increasing multimorbidity burden among more recently born cohorts of aging U.S. adults and should inform policy to address diminishing health in aging populations.

The importance of chronic conditions for potentially avoidable hospitalizations among non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White older adults in the US: a cross-sectional observational study

Background

Non-Hispanic (NH) Black older adults experience substantially higher rates of potentially avoidable hospitalization compared to NH White older adults. This study explores the top three chronic conditions preceding hospitalization and potentially avoidable hospitalization among NH White and NH Black Medicare beneficiaries in the United States.

Methods

Data on 4993 individuals (4,420 NH White and 573 NH Black individuals) aged ≥ 65 years from 2014 Medicare claims were linked with sociodemographic data from previous rounds of the Health and Retirement Study. Conditional inference random forests were used to rank the importance of chronic conditions in predicting hospitalization and potentially avoidable hospitalization separately for NH White and NH Black beneficiaries. Multivariable logistic regression with the top three chronic diseases for each outcome adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics were conducted to quantify the associations.

Results

In total, 22.1% of NH White and 24.9% of NH Black beneficiaries had at least one hospitalization during 2014. Among those with hospitalization, 21.3% of NH White and 29.6% of NH Black beneficiaries experienced at least one potentially avoidable hospitalization. For hospitalizations, chronic kidney disease, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation were the top three contributors among NH White beneficiaries and acute myocardial infarction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and chronic kidney disease were the top three contributors among NH Black beneficiaries. These chronic conditions were associated with increased odds of hospitalization for both groups. For potentially avoidable hospitalizations, asthma, COPD, and heart failure were the top three contributors among NH White beneficiaries and fibromyalgia/chronic pain/fatigue, COPD, and asthma were the top three contributors among NH Black beneficiaries. COPD and heart failure were associated with increased odds of potentially avoidable hospitalization among NH White beneficiaries, whereas only COPD was associated with increased odds of potentially avoidable hospitalizations among NH Black beneficiaries.

Conclusion

Having at least one hospitalization and at least one potentially avoidable hospitalization was more prevalent among NH Black than NH White Medicare beneficiaries. This suggests greater opportunity for increasing prevention efforts among NH Black beneficiaries. The importance of COPD for potentially avoidable hospitalizations further highlights the need to focus on prevention of exacerbations for patients with COPD, possibly through greater access to primary care and continuity of care.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-022-07849-y.

Influenza and pneumococcal vaccination delivery in older Hispanic populations in the United States

INTRODUCTION

National reports suggest that Hispanic patients may underutilize influenza and pneumococcal vaccination, although studies sometimes conflict on this point. A clearer picture of adult immunization utilization in older Hispanic patients is necessary to ensure equity in adult vaccinations.

METHODS

Using electronic health records from 648 community health centers (CHCs) across 21 states, we compared English-preferring Hispanic patients, Spanish-preferring Hispanic patients, and Non-Hispanic White (NHW) adults aged ≥50 years across five outcomes between 2012-2017: (1) Odds of ever receiving pneumococcal vaccination after age 65, (2) Odds of ever receiving ≥2 pneumococcal vaccinations for those ≥65, (3) odds of vaccination between the ages of 50 and 64 for those with diabetes or heart disease, (4) odds of influenza vaccine, and (5) annual rate of influenza vaccination.

RESULTS

Of our total study sample (N = 143,869), 85,562 were age 50-64 during the entire study period, and 65,977 were ≥65 at some point during the study period. In patients aged 50-64, Spanish-preferring Hispanic patients were more likely to have ever had an influenza vaccination (covariate-adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.29-1.37), had higher rates of annual influenza vaccination (covariate-adjusted rate ratio [aRR] = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.38-1.44), and higher odds of pneumococcal vaccination (aOR = 1.87, 95% CI = 1.76-1.98) than NHW patients. These findings were similar in Spanish-preferring Hispanic patients ≥65. English-preferring Hispanics ≥65 were less likely than NHW patients to ever have an influenza vaccination (aOR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.85-0.98) and to have ever received at least one (aOR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.86-0.99) or two (aOR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.77-0.95) pneumococcal vaccine doses.

CONCLUSIONS

In a multistate CHC network, Spanish-preferring Hispanic patients were more likely to receive influenza and pneumococcal vaccinations than NHW patients; older English-preferring Hispanic patients were often less likely than NHW patients to receive these vaccinations. In vaccine initiatives, English-preferring Hispanic patients may be at higher risk of vaccination inequity.

Comparing ascertainment of chronic condition status with problem lists versus encounter diagnoses from electronic health records

OBJECTIVE

To assess and compare electronic health record (EHR) documentation of chronic disease in problem lists and encounter diagnosis records among Community Health Center (CHC) patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We assessed patient EHR data in a large clinical research network during 2012-2019. We included CHCs who provided outpatient, older adult primary care to patients age ≥45 years, with ≥2 office visits during the study. Our study sample included 1 180 290 patients from 545 CHCs across 22 states. We used diagnosis codes from 39 Chronic Condition Warehouse algorithms to identify chronic conditions from encounter diagnoses only and compared against problem list records. We measured correspondence including agreement, kappa, prevalence index, bias index, and prevalence-adjusted bias-adjusted kappa.

RESULTS

Overlap of encounter diagnosis and problem list ascertainment was 59.4% among chronic conditions identified, with 12.2% of conditions identified only in encounters and 28.4% identified only in problem lists. Rates of coidentification varied by condition from 7.1% to 84.4%. Greatest agreement was found in diabetes (84.4%), HIV (78.1%), and hypertension (74.7%). Sixteen conditions had <50% agreement, including cancers and substance use disorders. Overlap for mental health conditions ranged from 47.4% for anxiety to 59.8% for depression.

DISCUSSION

Agreement between the 2 sources varied substantially. Conditions requiring regular management in primary care settings may have a higher agreement than those diagnosed and treated in specialty care.

CONCLUSION

Relying on EHR encounter data to identify chronic conditions without reference to patient problem lists may under-capture conditions among CHC patients in the United States.

Multimorbidity Accumulation Among Middle-Aged Americans: Differences by Race/Ethnicity and Body Mass Index

BACKGROUND

Obesity and multimorbidity are more prevalent among U.S. racial/ethnic minority groups. Evaluating racial/ethnic disparities in disease accumulation according to body mass index (BMI) may guide interventions to reduce multimorbidity burden in vulnerable racial/ethnic groups.

METHOD

We used data from the 1998-2016 Health and Retirement Study on 8 106 participants aged 51-55 at baseline. Disease burden and multimorbidity (≥2 co-occurring diseases) were assessed using 7 chronic diseases: arthritis, cancer, heart disease, diabetes, hypertension, lung disease, and stroke. Four BMI categories were defined per convention: normal, overweight, obese class 1, and obese class 2/3. Generalized estimating equations models with inverse probability weights estimated the accumulation of chronic diseases.

RESULTS

Overweight and obesity were more prevalent in non-Hispanic Black (82.3%) and Hispanic (78.9%) than non-Hispanic White (70.9 %) participants at baseline. The baseline burden of disease was similar across BMI categories, but disease accumulation was faster in the obese class 2/3 and marginally in the obese class 1 categories compared with normal BMI. Black participants across BMI categories had a higher initial burden and faster accumulation of disease over time, while Hispanics had a lower initial burden and similar rate of accumulation, compared with Whites. Black participants, including those with normal BMI, reach the multimorbidity threshold 5-6 years earlier compared with White participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Controlling weight and reducing obesity early in the lifecourse may slow the progression of multimorbidity in later life. Further investigations are needed to identify the factors responsible for the early and progressing nature of multimorbidity in Blacks of nonobese weight.

Disparities in Colorectal Cancer Screening in Latinos and Non-Hispanic Whites

INTRODUCTION

Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of cancer deaths in Latinos in the U.S., but it is unclear, from previous research, whether Latinos have differing rates of colorectal cancer screening methods from those of non-Hispanic Whites.

METHODS

This study used electronic health records from 686 community health centers across 21 states in the Accelerating Data Value Across a National Community Health Center of the National Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network. Records from English-preferring Latinos, Spanish-preferring Latinos, and non-Hispanic Whites aged 50-75 years were included. A total of 5 outcomes were compared between 2012 and 2017 to provide a comprehensive view of colorectal cancer screening: (1) any colorectal cancer screening, (2) stool-based screening, (3) annual rates of stool testing, (4) any referral for lower gastrointestinal endoscopy, and (5) endoscopy referral among patients with a positive stool-based screening.

RESULTS

In this study (N=204,243), Spanish-preferring Latinos had higher odds of any colorectal cancer screening (OR=1.44, 95% CI=1.23, 1.68) and stool-based testing (OR=1.82, 95% CI=1.55, 2.13) than non-Hispanic Whites. English- and Spanish-preferring Latinos had lower odds of having ever had a referral for endoscopy in the study period than non-Hispanic Whites (English: OR=0.23, 95% CI=0.15, 0.34; Spanish: OR=0.55, 95% CI=0.40, 0.74), even with a positive stool-based screening (English: OR=0.14, 95% CI=0.06, 0.33; Spanish: OR=0.33, 95% CI=0.19, 0.57).

CONCLUSIONS

In a multistate network of community health centers, Latino patients aged >50 years were more likely to receive stool-based screening tests for colorectal cancer than non-Hispanic Whites but were less likely to receive endoscopy referrals than non-Hispanic Whites, even when experiencing a positive stool-based screening test. Initiatives to improve Latino colorectal cancer outcomes should encourage indicated referrals for lower gastrointestinal endoscopy.

Multidimensional trajectories of multimorbidity, functional status, cognitive performance, and depressive symptoms among diverse groups of older adults

Background

Inter-relationships between multimorbidity and geriatric syndromes are poorly understood. This study assesses heterogeneity in joint trajectories of somatic disease, functional status, cognitive performance, and depressive symptomatology.

Methods

We analyzed 16 years of longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS, 1998-2016) for n = 11,565 older adults (≥65 years) in the United States. Group-based mixture modeling identified latent clusters of older adults following similar joint trajectories across domains.

Results

We identified four distinct multidimensional trajectory groups: (1) Minimal Impairment with Low Multimorbidity (32.7% of the sample; mean = 0.60 conditions at age 65, 2.1 conditions at age 90) had limited deterioration; (2) Minimal Impairment with High Multimorbidity (32.9%; mean = 2.3 conditions at age 65, 4.0 at age 90) had minimal deterioration; (3) Multidomain Impairment with Intermediate Multimorbidity (19.9%; mean = 1.3 conditions at age 65, 2.7 at age 90) had moderate depressive symptomatology and functional impariments with worsening cognitive performance; (4) Multidomain Impairment with High Multimorbidity (14.1%; mean = 3.3 conditions at age 65; 4.7 at age 90) had substantial functional limitation and high depressive symptomatology with worsening cognitive performance. Black and Hispanic race/ethnicity, lower wealth, lower education, male sex, and smoking history were significantly associated with membership in the two Multidomain Impairment classes.

Conclusions

There is substantial heterogeneity in combined trajectories of interrelated health domains in late life. Membership in the two most impaired classes was more likely for minoritized older adults.

Are there sex differences in potentially inappropriate prescribing in adults with multimorbidity?

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Limited knowledge exists regarding sex differences in prescribing potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) for various multimorbidity patterns. This study sought to determine sex differences in PIM prescribing in older adults with cardiovascular-metabolic patterns.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Health and Retirement Study (HRS) 2004-2014 interview data, linked to HRS-Medicare claims data annualized for 2005-2014.

STUDY SAMPLE

Six thousand three-hundred and forty-one HRS participants aged 65 and older with two and more chronic conditions.

MEASUREMENTS

PIM events were calculated using 2015 American Geriatrics Society Beers Criteria. Multimorbidity patterns included: "cardiovascular-metabolic only," "cardiovascular-metabolic plus other physical conditions," "cardiovascular-metabolic plus mental conditions," and "no cardiovascular-metabolic disease" patterns. Logistic regression models were used to determine the association between PIM and sex, including interaction between sex and multimorbidity categories in the model, for PIM overall and for each PIM drug class.

RESULTS

Women were prescribed PIMs more often than men (39.4% vs 32.8%). Overall, women had increased odds of PIM (Adj. odds ratio [OR] = 1.30, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.16-1.46). Women had higher odds of PIM than men with cardiovascular-metabolic plus physical patterns (Adj. OR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.07-1.45) and cardiovascular-metabolic plus mental patterns (Adj. OR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.06-1.48), and there were no sex differences in adults with a cardiovascular-metabolic only patterns (Adj. OR = 1.13, 95% CI: 0.79-1.62). Women had greater odds of being prescribed the following PIMs: anticholinergics, antidepressants, antispasmodics, benzodiazepines, skeletal muscle relaxants, and had lower odds of being prescribed pain drugs and sulfonylureas compared with men.

CONCLUSION

This study evaluated sex differences in PIM prescribing among adults with complex cardiovascular-metabolic multimorbidity patterns. The effect of sex varied across multimorbidity patterns and by different PIM drug classes. This study identified important opportunities for future interventions to improve medication prescribing among older adults at risk for PIM.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in Multimorbidity Changes Over Time

BACKGROUND

Our understanding of how multimorbidity progresses and changes is nascent.

OBJECTIVES

Assess multimorbidity changes among racially/ethnically diverse middle-aged and older adults.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Prospective cohort study using latent class analysis to identify multimorbidity combinations over 16 years, and multinomial logistic models to assess change relative to baseline class membership. Health and Retirement Study respondents (age 51 y and above) in 1998 and followed through 2014 (N=17,297).

MEASURES

Multimorbidity latent classes of: hypertension, heart disease, lung disease, diabetes, cancer, arthritis, stroke, high depressive symptoms.

RESULTS

Three latent classes were identified in 1998: minimal disease (45.8% of participants), cardiovascular-musculoskeletal (34.6%), cardiovascular-musculoskeletal-mental (19.6%); and 3 in 2014: cardiovascular-musculoskeletal (13%), cardiovascular-musculoskeletal-metabolic (12%), multisystem multimorbidity (15%). Remaining participants were deceased (48%) or lost to follow-up (12%) by 2014. Compared with minimal disease, individuals in cardiovascular-musculoskeletal in 1998 were more likely to be in multisystem multimorbidity in 2014 [odds ratio (OR)=1.78, P<0.001], and individuals in cardiovascular-musculoskeletal-mental in 1998 were more likely to be deceased (OR=2.45, P<0.001) or lost to follow-up (OR=3.08, P<0.001). Hispanic and Black Americans were more likely than White Americans to be in multisystem multimorbidity in 2014 (OR=1.67, P=0.042; OR=2.60, P<0.001, respectively). Black compared with White Americans were more likely to be deceased (OR=1.62, P=0.01) or lost to follow-up (OR=2.11, P<0.001) by 2014.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Racial/ethnic older adults are more likely to accumulate morbidity and die compared with White peers, and should be the focus of targeted and enhanced efforts to prevent and/or delay progression to more complex multimorbidity patterns.

Recommendations for improving national clinical datasets for health equity research

Health and healthcare disparities continue despite clinical, research, and policy efforts. Large clinical datasets may not contain data relevant to healthcare disparities and leveraging these for research may be crucial to improve health equity. The Health Disparities Collaborative Research Group was commissioned by the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute to examine the data science needs for quality and complete data and provide recommendations for improving data science around health disparities. The group convened content experts, researchers, clinicians, and patients to produce these recommendations and suggestions for implementation. Our desire was to produce recommendations to improve the usability of healthcare datasets for health equity research. The recommendations are summarized in 3 primary domains: patient voice, accurate variables, and data linkage. The implementation of these recommendations in national datasets has the potential to accelerate health disparities research and promote efforts to reduce health inequities.

Association of Medicare Mandatory Bundled Payment Program With the Receipt of Elective Hip and Knee Replacement in White, Black, and Hispanic Beneficiaries

IMPORTANCE

The Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) model was designed to reduce the cost and improve the quality of hip or knee replacement among Medicare beneficiaries. Yet whether this model may exacerbate existing racial/ethnic disparities in access to the surgery is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association of the CJR model with the receipt of elective hip or knee replacement across White, Black, and Hispanic Medicare beneficiaries.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective cohort study of Medicare claims from 2013 through 2017 among White, Black, and Hispanic Medicare beneficiaries undergoing elective joint replacement in 65 treatment (selected for CJR participation) and 101 control metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).

EXPOSURES

Starting in April 2016, hospitals in the treatment MSAs were required to participate in the CJR model and were accountable for expenditures occurring during patients' hospitalization for hip or knee replacement and 90 days after the hospital discharge.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Beneficiary-level elective hip or knee replacement receipt in a given year.

RESULTS

Among 17 243 304 patients, 9 839 996 (57%) were women; 2 107 425 (12%) were age 85 years or older. Of the final sample, 14 632 434 (85%) were White beneficiaries, 1 518 629 (9%) were Black beneficiaries, and 1 092 241 (6%) were Hispanic beneficiaries. The CJR model was associated with an increase of 1.6 elective hip or knee replacements per 1000 beneficiary-years for Hispanic beneficiaries (95% CI, 0.06-2.05) and a decrease of 0.64 replacements for Black beneficiaries (95% CI, -1.25 to -0.02). No evidence was found for any changes for White beneficiaries per 1000 beneficiary-years (0.04 replacements, 95% CI, -0.35 to 0.42 replacements). The Black-White difference in the rate of elective hip or knee replacement per 1000 beneficiary-years further widened by 0.68 replacements (-0.68, 95% CI, -1.20 to -0.15).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, the CJR model was associated with increased receipt of elective hip or knee replacement among Hispanic beneficiaries, decreased receipt among Black beneficiaries, and no change in receipt among White beneficiaries. The decreased receipt of elective hip or knee replacement among Black beneficiaries may suggest that value-based payment models, including the CJR model, could be monitored for unintended consequences. However, the lack of similar findings among Hispanic beneficiaries suggests that payment models may have differential impacts across racial/ethnic groups.

Uptake of Preventive Services Among Patients With and Without Multimorbidity

INTRODUCTION

Patients with multiple chronic conditions (multimorbidity) are seen commonly in primary care practices and often have suboptimal uptake of preventive care owing to competing treatment demands. The complexity of multimorbidity patterns and their impact on receiving preventive services is not fully understood. This study identifies multimorbidity combinations associated with low receipt of preventive services.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of U.S. community health center patients aged ≥19 years. Electronic health record data from 209 community health centers for the January 1, 2014-December 31, 2017 study period were analyzed in 2018-2019. Multimorbidity patterns included physical only, mental health only, and physical and mental health multimorbidity patterns, with no multimorbidity as a reference category. Electronic health record-based preventive ratios (number of months services were up-to-date/total months the patient was eligible for services) were calculated for the 14 preventive services. Negative binomial regression models assessed the relationship between multimorbidity physical and/or mental health patterns and the preventive ratio for each service.

RESULTS

There was a variation in receipt of preventive care between multimorbidity groups: individuals with mental health only multimorbidity were less likely to be up-to-date with cardiometabolic and cancer screenings than the no multimorbidity group or groups with physical health conditions, and the physical only multimorbidity group had low rates of depression screening.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided critical insights into receipt of preventive service among adults with multimorbidity using a more precise method for measuring up-to-date preventive care delivery. Findings would be useful to identify target populations for future intervention programs to improve preventive care.

Tracking Multimorbidity Changes in Diverse Racial/Ethnic Populations Over Time: Issues and Considerations

Multimorbidity is widely recognized as having adverse effects on health and wellbeing and may threaten the ability of older adults to live independently. Much of what is known about multimorbidity rests on research that has largely focused on one point in time, or from a static perspective. Given that there remains a lack of agreement in the field on how to standardize multimorbidity definitions and measurement, it is not surprising that analyzing and predicting multimorbidity development, progression over time, and its impact are still largely unaddressed. As a result, there are important gaps and challenges to measuring and studying multimorbidity in a longitudinal context. This Research Practice perspective summarizes pressing challenges and offers practical steps to move the field forward.

Association of Medicare Mandatory Bundled Payment System for Hip and Knee Joint Replacement With Racial/Ethnic Difference in Joint Replacement Care

IMPORTANCE

There are marked racial/ethnic differences in hip and knee joint replacement care as well as concerns that value-based payments may exacerbate existing racial/ethnic disparities in care.

OBJECTIVE

To examine changes in joint replacement care associated with Medicare's Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) model among White, Black, and Hispanic patients.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective cohort study of Medicare claims from 2013 through 2017 among White, Black, and Hispanic patients undergoing joint replacement in 67 treatment (selected for CJR participation) and 103 control metropolitan statistical areas.

EXPOSURES

The CJR model holds hospitals accountable for spending and quality of joint replacement care during care episodes (index hospitalization through 90 days after discharge).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcomes were spending, discharge to institutional postacute care, and readmission during care episodes.

RESULTS

Among 688 346 patients, 442 163 (64.2%) were women, and 87 286 (12.7%) were 85 years or older. Under CJR, spending decreased by $439 for White patients (95% CI, -$718 to -$161; from pre-CJR spending in treatment metropolitan statistical areas of $25 264) but did not change for Black patients and Hispanic patients. Discharges to institutional postacute care decreased for all groups (-2.5 percentage points; 95% CI, -4.7 to -0.4, from pre-CJR risk of 46.2% for White patients; -6.0 percentage points; 95% CI, -9.8 to -2.2, from pre-CJR risk of 59.5% for Black patients; and -4.3 percentage points; 95% CI, -7.6 to -1.0, from pre-CJR risk of 54.3% for Hispanic patients). Readmission risk decreased for Black patients by 3.1 percentage points (95% CI, -5.9 to -0.4, from pre-CJR risk of 21.8%) and did not change for White patients and Hispanic patients. Under CJR, Black-White differences in discharges to institutional postacute care decreased by 3.4 percentage points (95% CI, -6.4 to -0.5, from the pre-CJR Black-White difference of 13.3 percentage points). No evidence was found demonstrating that Black-White differences changed for other outcomes or that Hispanic-White differences changed for any outcomes under CJR.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study of patients receiving joint replacements, CJR was associated with decreased readmissions for Black patients. Furthermore, Black patients experienced a greater decrease in discharges to institutional postacute care relative to White patients, representing relative improvements despite concerns that value-based payment models may exacerbate existing disparities. Nonetheless, differences between White and Black patients in joint replacement care still persisted even after these changes.

Achieving Health Equity in Embedded Pragmatic Trials for People Living with Dementia and Their Family Caregivers

Embedded pragmatic clinical trials (ePCTs) advance research on Alzheimer's disease/Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (AD/ADRD) in real-world contexts; however, health equity issues have not yet been fully considered, assessed, or integrated into ePCT designs. Health disparity populations may not be well represented in ePCTs without special efforts to identify and successfully recruit sites of care that serve larger numbers of these populations. The National Institute on Aging (NIA) Imbedded Pragmatic Alzheimer's disease (AD) and AD-Related Dementias (AD/ADRD) Clinical Trials (IMPACT) Collaboratory's Health Equity Team will contribute to the overall mission of the collaboratory by developing and implementing strategies to address health equity in the conduct of ePCTs and ensure the collaboratory is a national resource for all Americans with dementia. As a first step toward meeting these goals, this article reviews what is currently known about the inclusion of health disparities populations of people living with dementia (PLWD) and their caregivers in ePCTs, highlights unique challenges related to health equity in the conduct of ePCTs, and suggests priority areas in the design and implementation of ePCTs to increase the awareness and avoidance of pitfalls that may perpetuate and magnify healthcare disparities. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:S8-S13, 2020.

Accuracy of Hospital Discharge Codes in Medicare Claims for Knee and Hip Replacement Patients

BACKGROUND

Despite the importance of the hospital discharge destination field ("discharge code" hereafter) for research and payment reform, its accuracy is not well established.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to examine the accuracy of discharge codes in Medicare claims.

DATA SOURCES

2012-2015 Medicare claims of knee and hip replacement patients.

RESEARCH DESIGN

We identified patients' discharge location in claims and compared it with the discharge code. We also used a mixed-effects logistic regression to examine the association of patient and hospital characteristics with discharge code accuracy.

RESULTS

Approximately 9% of discharge codes were inaccurate. Long-term care hospital discharge codes had the lowest accuracy rate (41%), followed by acute care transfers (72%), inpatient rehabilitation facility (80%), and home discharges (83%). Most misclassifications occurred within 2 broad groups of postacute care settings: home-based and institutional care. The odds of inaccurate discharge codes were higher for Medicaid-enrolled patients and safety-net and low-volume hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

Inaccurate hospital discharge coding may have introduced bias in studies relying on these codes (eg, evaluations of Medicare bundled payment models). Inaccuracy was more common among Medicaid-enrolled patients and safety-net and low-volume hospitals, suggesting more potential bias in existing study findings pertaining to these patients and hospitals.

Annual Wellness Visits and Influenza Vaccinations among Older Adults in the US

OBJECTIVES

Investigate whether combinations of sociodemographic factors, chronic conditions, and other health indicators pose barriers for older adults to access Annual Wellness Visits (AWVs) and influenza vaccinations.

METHODS

Data on 4999 individuals aged ≥65 years from the 2012 wave of the Health and Retirement Study linked with Medicare claims were analyzed. Conditional Inference Tree (CIT) and Random Forest (CIRF) analyses identified the most important predictors of AWVs and influenza vaccinations. Multivariable logistic regression (MLR) was used to quantify the associations.

RESULTS

Two-year uptake was 22.8% for AWVs and 65.9% for influenza vaccinations. For AWVs, geographical region and wealth emerged as the most important predictors. For influenza vaccinations, number of somatic conditions, race/ethnicity, education, and wealth were the most important predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

The importance of geographic region for AWV utilization suggests that this service was unequally adopted. Non-Hispanic black participants and/or those with functional limitations were less likely to receive influenza vaccination.

An Agenda for Addressing Multimorbidity and Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementia

Advancements in Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) research on the U.S. population acknowledge the importance of the high burden of ADRD on segments of the population and yet-to-be characterized risks attributable to the burden of multiple chronic diseases (multimorbidity). These realizations suggest successful strategies in caring for people with ADRD and their caregivers will rely not only on clinical treatments but also on more refined and comprehensive models of ADRD that take its broad effects on the whole-person and the whole of society into consideration. To this end, it is critical to characterize and address the relationship between ADRD and multimorbidity combinations that complicate care and lead to poor outcomes, particularly with regard to racial and ethnic disparities in the occurrence, course, and effects of ADRD. Several research and policy recommendations are presented to address the intersection of ADRD, multimorbidity, and underrepresented populations most at risk for adverse outcomes.

RACIAL-ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN MULTIMORBIDITY PROGRESSION ACCORDING TO BODY-WEIGHT STATUS AMONG OLDER U.S. ADULTS

Obesity and multimorbidity are more prevalent among underrepresented U.S. racial/ethnic minority groups. Evaluating whether racial/ethnic disparities in multimorbidity accumulation vary according to body-mass index (BMI) may guide interventions aimed at reducing multimorbidity burden in vulnerable racial/ethnic groups. We used 1998-2014 data from the Health & Retirement Study (N=8,635 participants, age 51-55 years old at baseline) and negative binomial models stratified by BMI category to evaluate differences in rates of accumulation of seven chronic conditions (arthritis, cancer, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, lung disease, and stroke), focusing on differences between racial/ethnic groups [White (reference; 64.7%), Black (21.5%), Hispanic (13.8%)]. Overweight and obesity were more prevalent in Black (80.9%) and Hispanic (78.6%) than White (69.9%) participants at baseline; in all BMI categories, Black participants had higher rates of multimorbidity compared with White participants (normal BMI:β=0.304, p<0.001; overweight:β=0.243,p<0.001; and obese:β=0.135,p=0.013); initial burden of disease was similar between Whites and Hispanics in the normal and overweight categories, but significantly lower among Hispanics (vs. Whites) in the obese category (β= -0.180,p=0.017). We found no significant differences in rates of disease accumulation between the racial/ethnic groups in any of the BMI categories. There are substantial differences in initial disease burden between Black and White middle-aged/older adults, but not in the rate of accumulation of disease between the race/ethnic groups in the 3 main BMI categories. These findings suggest an opportunity to reduce racial disparities in multimorbidity by intervening early in the lifecourse to reduce the burden of chronic disease among vulnerable racial minorities prior to entering middle-age.

SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH DISPARITIES IN USE OF PREVENTIVE HEALTHCARE SERVICES

Introduction: Older adults experience multiple health problems necessitating medical care. However, studies have shown that healthcare is not equally accessible for older adults in the US. In 2011, Medicare introduced Annual Wellness Visits to improve access to preventive healthcare including influenza vaccination. Objectives: Ascertain whether sociodemographic factors, multimorbidity, and other health indicators pose a barrier for older adults to access Annual Wellness Visits and influenza vaccination. Methods: We analyzed data from the 2012 and 2014 waves of the Health and Retirement Study linked with Medicare records. 4,858 older adults aged 65+ years were included in Conditional Random Forests to identify the most important predictors of Annual Wellness Visits and influenza vaccination during this two-year period. The predictors included: age, sex, race/ethnicity, partnered, geographical region, wealth, educational level, Medicaid coverage, body mass index, activities and instrumental activities of daily living, proxy interview, cognitive impairment, dementia diagnosis, and multimorbidity. Results: In total, 1,142 (23.6%) older adults had an Annual Wellness Visit and 3,316 (68.4%) older adults received an influenza vaccination. 11.9% were non-Hispanic black, 6.3% were Hispanic, with a median of 6 chronic conditions and 16.9% had dementia. The most important predictors of Annual Wellness Visits were region, wealth, dementia diagnosis, and race/ethnicity. The most important predictors of influenza vaccination were multimorbidity, race/ethnicity, educational level, and wealth. Conclusion: The importance of geographical region for Annual Wellness Visits suggests that the service has not been adopted equally throughout the US, whereas multimorbidity is the most important factor for receiving influenza vaccination.

RACIAL AND ETHNIC DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GRIP STRENGTH AND FUNCTIONAL LIMITATIONS: RESULTS FROM NHATS 2010-2014

Current research regarding grip strength highlights the robustness of grip strength as a predictor of morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association of grip strength over four years with functional limitations among racially/ethnically diverse older adults. We analyzed National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) data 2010-2014. Our sample included 4,413 adults &gt; 65 years old. Functional limitation was defined as a sum of difficulty performing eight ADL/IADLs (range 0-8) at each wave. Grip strength was measured using a digital hand dynamometer and readings were recorded in kilograms (kg) (maximum of 32 kg for men and &gt; 20 kg for women). We estimated stratified linear regression models by race/ethnicity and age, and adjusted for BMI, education, and gender. The majority of the sample was between 65-79 years of age (64%), 55.1% were female and the average BMI was 27.5. We found that differences in ADL/IADL limitations increased and grip strength decreased over the four year period of observation. We also found racial/ethnic differences between waves 1 and 4 with greater ADL/IADL limitations for Hispanics with lower grip strength scores compared to non-Hispanic whites. There were racial/ethnic differences in the association between grip strength and ADL/IADL over time in Non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics when compared to Non-Hispanic whites. This is an important issue to address since loss of muscle strength in older adults may lead to several negative outcomes such as limited activities of daily living which may affect older adults differentially based on race/ethnicity.

TRACKING CHANGES IN MULTIMORBIDITY AMONG RACIALLY AND ETHNICALLY DIVERSE POPULATIONS

Multimorbidity is widely recognized as having adverse effects on health and wellbeing above and beyond the risk attributable to individual chronic disease. Much of what is known about multimorbidity rests on research that has largely focused on one point-in-time, or from a static perspective, with little consideration to issues involved in assessing longitudinal changes in multimorbidity. In addition, less focus has been placed on assessing racial and ethnic variations in longitudinal changes of multimorbidity. Addressing this knowledge gap, we highlight important issues and considerations in addressing multimorbidity research from a longitudinal perspective and present findings from longitudinal models that examine differences in the rate of chronic disease accumulation and multimorbidity onset between non-Hispanic white (white), non-Hispanic black (black), and Hispanic study participants in the Health and Retirement Study starting in middle-age and followed for up to 16 years.

Association of the Mandatory Medicare Bundled Payment With Joint Replacement Outcomes in Hospitals With Disadvantaged Patients

IMPORTANCE

Medicare's Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) model rewards or penalizes hospitals on the basis of meeting spending benchmarks that do not account for patients' preexisting social and medical complexity or high expenses associated with serving disadvantaged populations such as dual-eligible patients (ie, those enrolled in both Medicare and Medicaid). The CJR model may have different implications for hospitals serving a high percentage of dual-eligible patients (termed high-dual) and hospitals serving a low percentage of dual-eligible patients (termed low-dual).

OBJECTIVE

To examine changes associated with the CJR model among high-dual or low-dual hospitals in 2016 to 2017.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study comprised 3 analyses of high-dual or low-dual hospitals (n = 1165) serving patients with hip or knee joint replacements (n = 768 224) in 67 treatment metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) selected for CJR participation and 103 control MSAs. The study used Medicare claims data and public reports from 2012 to 2017. Data analysis was conducted from February 1, 2019, to August 31, 2019.

EXPOSURES

The CJR model holds participating hospitals accountable for the spending and quality of care during care episodes for patients with hip or knee joint replacement, including hospitalization and 90 days after discharge.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcomes were total episode spending, discharge to institutional postacute care facility, and readmission within the 90-day postdischarge period; bonus and penalty payments for each hospital; and reductions in per-episode spending required to receive a bonus for each hospital.

RESULTS

In total, 1165 hospitals (291 high-dual and 874 low-dual) and 768 224 patients with joint replacement (494 013 women [64.3%]; mean [SD] age, 76 [7] years) were included. An episode-level triple-difference analysis indicated that total spending under the CJR model decreased at high-dual hospitals (by $851; 95% CI, -$1556 to -$146; P = .02) and low-dual hospitals (by $567; 95% CI, -$933 to -$202; P = .003). The size of decreases did not differ between the 2 groups (difference, -$284; 95% CI, -$981 to $413; P = .42). Discharge to institutional postacute care settings and readmission did not change among both hospital groups. High-dual hospitals were less likely to receive a bonus compared with low-dual hospitals (40.3% vs 59.1% in 2016; 56.9% vs 76.0% in 2017). To receive a bonus, high-dual hospitals would be required to reduce spending by $887 to $2231 per episode, compared with only $89 to $215 for low-dual hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The study found that high- and low-dual hospitals made changes in care after CJR implementation, and the magnitude of these changes did not differ between the 2 groups. However, high-dual hospitals were less likely to receive a bonus for spending cuts. Spending benchmarks for CJR would require high-dual hospitals to reduce spending more substantially to receive a financial incentive.

Cost-related delay in filling prescriptions and health care ratings among medicare advantage recipients

Despite higher health care needs, older adults often have limited and fixed income. Approximately a quarter of them report not filling or delaying prescription medications due to cost (cost-related prescription delay, CRPD). To ascertain the association between CRPD and satisfaction with health care, secondary analysis of the 2012 Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) Medicare Advantage Survey was performed.Regression models quantified the association between CRPD and rating of personal doctor, specialist, and overall health care. Models were adjusted for demographic, health-related, and socioeconomic characteristics. 274,996 Medicare Advantage enrollees were mailed the CAHPS survey, of which 101,910 (36.8%) returned a survey that had responses to all the items we analyzed. CRPD was assessed by self-report of delay in filling prescriptions due to cost. Health care ratings were on a 0-10 scale. A score ≤ 5 was considered a poor rating of care.In unadjusted models, CRPD more than doubled the relative risk (RR) for poor ratings of personal doctor (RR 2.34), specialist (RR 2.14), and overall health care (RR 2.40). Adjusting for demographics and health status slightly reduced the RRs to 1.9, but adjusting for low-income subsidy and lack of insurance for medications did not make a difference.CRPD is independently associated with poor ratings of medical care, regardless of health, financial or insurance status. Providers might reduce patients' financial stress and improve patient satisfaction by explicitly discussing prescription cost and incorporating patient priorities when recommending treatments.

Associations between prevalent multimorbidity combinations and prospective disability and self-rated health among older adults in Europe

Background

Multimorbidity is associated with greater likelihood of disability, health-related quality of life, and mortality, greater than the risk attributable to individual diseases. The objective of this study is to examine the association between unique multimorbidity combinations and prospective disability and poor self-rated health (SRH) in older adults in Europe.

Methods

We conducted a prospective analysis using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe in 2013 and 2015. We used hierarchical models to compare respondents with multiple chronic conditions to healthy respondents and respondents reporting only one chronic condition and made within-group comparisons to examine the marginal contribution of specific chronic condition combinations.

Results

Less than 20% of the study population reported having zero chronic conditions, while 50% reported having at least two chronic conditions. We identified 380 unique disease combinations among people who reported having at least two chronic conditions. Over 35% of multimorbidity could be attributed to five specific multimorbidity combinations, and over 50% to ten specific combinations. Overall, multimorbidity combinations that included high depressive symptoms were associated with increased odds of reporting poor SRH, and increased rates of ADL-IADL disability.

Conclusions

Multimorbidity groups that include high depressive symptoms may be more disabling than combinations that include only somatic conditions. These findings argue for a continued integration of both mental and somatic chronic conditions in the conceptualization of multimorbidity, with important implications for clinical practice and healthcare delivery.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12877-019-1214-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Racial/ethnic differences in multimorbidity development and chronic disease accumulation for middle-aged adults

Background

Multimorbidity–having two or more coexisting chronic conditions–is highly prevalent, costly, and disabling to older adults. Questions remain regarding chronic diseases accumulation over time and whether this differs by racial and ethnic background. Answering this knowledge gap, this study identifies differences in rates of chronic disease accumulation and multimorbidity development among non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic study participants starting in middle-age and followed up to 16 years.

Methods and findings

We analyzed data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a biennial, ongoing, publicly-available, longitudinal nationally-representative study of middle-aged and older adults in the United States. We assessed the change in chronic disease burden among 8,872 non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic white, and Hispanic participants who were 51–55 years of age at their first interview any time during the study period (1998–2014) and all subsequent follow-up observations until 2014. Multimorbidity was defined as having two or more of seven somatic chronic diseases: arthritis, cancer, heart disease (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, angina, congestive heart failure, or other heart problems), diabetes, hypertension, lung disease, and stroke. We used negative binomial generalized estimating equation models to assess the trajectories of multimorbidity burden over time for non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic white, and Hispanic participants. In covariate-adjusted models non-Hispanic black respondents had initial chronic disease counts that were 28% higher than non-Hispanic white respondents (IRR 1.279, 95% CI 1.201, 1.361), while Hispanic respondents had initial chronic disease counts that were 15% lower than non-Hispanic white respondents (IRR 0.852, 95% CI 0.775, 0.938). Non-Hispanic black respondents had rates of chronic disease accumulation that were 1.1% slower than non-Hispanic whites (IRR 0.989, 95% CI 0.981, 0.998) and Hispanic respondents had rates of chronic disease accumulation that were 1.5% faster than non-Hispanic white respondents (IRR 1.015, 95% CI 1.002, 1.028). Using marginal effects commands, this translates to predicted values of chronic disease for white respondents who begin the study period with 0.98 chronic diseases and end with 2.8 chronic diseases; black respondents who begin the study period with 1.3 chronic diseases and end with 3.3 chronic diseases; and Hispanic respondents who begin the study period with 0.84 chronic diseases and end with 2.7 chronic diseases.

Conclusions

Middle-aged non-Hispanic black adults start at a higher level of chronic disease burden and develop multimorbidity at an earlier age, on average, than their non-Hispanic white counterparts. Hispanics, on the other hand, accumulate chronic disease at a faster rate relative to non-Hispanic white adults. Our findings have important implications for improving primary and secondary chronic disease prevention efforts among non-Hispanic black and Hispanic Americans to stave off greater multimorbidity-related health impacts.

Diabetes-Multimorbidity Combinations and Disability Among Middle-aged and Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Older adults with diabetes rarely have only one chronic disease. As a result, there is a need to re-conceptualize research and clinical practice to address the growing number of older Americans with diabetes and concurrent chronic diseases (diabetes-multimorbidity).

OBJECTIVE

To identify prevalent multimorbidity combinations and examine their association with poor functional status among a nationally representative sample of middle-aged and older adults with diabetes.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study of the 2012-2014 Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data. We identified the most prevalent diabetes-multimorbidity combinations and estimated negative binomial models of diabetes-multimorbidity on prospective disability.

PARTICIPANTS

Analytic sample included 3841 HRS participants with diabetes, aged 51 years and older.

MAIN MEASURES

The main outcome measure was the combined activities of daily living (ADL)-instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) index (range 0-11; higher index denotes higher disability). The main independent variables were diabetes-multimorbidity combination groups, defined as the co-occurrence of diabetes and at least one of six somatic chronic diseases (hypertension, cardiovascular disease, lung disease, cancer, arthritis, and stroke) and/or two mental chronic conditions (cognitive impairment and high depressive symptoms (CESD score ≥ 4).

KEY RESULTS

The three most prevalent multimorbidity combinations were, in rank-order diabetes-arthritis-hypertension (n = 694, 18.1%); diabetes-hypertension (n = 481, 12.5%); and diabetes-arthritis-hypertension-heart disease (n = 383, 10%). Diabetes-multimorbidity combinations that included high depressive symptoms or stroke had significantly higher counts of ADL-IADL limitations compared with diabetes-only. In head-to-head comparisons of diabetes-multimorbidity combinations, high depressive symptoms or stroke added to somatic multimorbidity combinations was associated with a higher count of ADL-IADL limitations (diabetes-arthritis-hypertension-high depressive symptoms vs. diabetes-arthritis-hypertension: IRR = 1.95 [1.13, 3.38]; diabetes-arthritis-hypertension-stroke vs. diabetes-arthritis-hypertension: IRR = 2.09 [1.15, 3.82]) even after adjusting for age, gender, education, race/ethnicity, BMI, baseline ADL-IADL, and diabetes duration. Coefficients were robust to further adjustment for diabetes treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Depressive symptoms or stroke added onto other multimorbidity combinations may pose a substantial functional burden for middle-aged and older adults with diabetes.

Prospective Disability in Different Combinations of Somatic and Mental Multimorbidity

Background

Multimorbidity (multiple co-occurring chronic conditions) may be an important contributor to disability and poor health-related quality of life. The functional consequences of specific combinations of somatic and mental health conditions are unclear.

Methods

Nationally representative prospective cohort study using the National Health and Aging Trends Study data of Medicare beneficiaries. We included 4,017 participants aged 65 years or older interviewed in 2013 and 2014. The primary outcome was prospective activities of daily living (ADL)-instrumental ADL (IADL) index (range = 0-11) assessed in 2014. All other measures were assessed in 2013. Chronic conditions included heart disease, hypertension, stroke, diabetes, arthritis, lung disease, osteoporosis, cancer, depression, and cognitive impairment. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, education, race/ethnicity, body mass index, and baseline ADL-IADL.

Results

Thirty-four percent of multimorbidity combinations included depression, cognitive impairment, or both. Relative to multimorbidity combinations of exclusively somatic conditions, combinations that included both depression and cognitive impairment were associated with 1.34 times greater ADL-IADL in adjusted models (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09, 1.64). Relative to combinations of both depression and cognitive impairment, combinations of cognitive impairment and somatic conditions were associated with 0.84 times lower ADL-IADL in adjusted models (95% CI: 0.74, 0.96); combinations of depression and somatic conditions were associated with 0.72 times lower ADL-IADL in adjusted models (95% CI: 0.62, 0.85).

Conclusions

Depression and/or cognitive impairment was identified in one-third of older adults with multimorbidity, and these combinations were associated with substantially greater prospective disability than combinations comprised exclusively of somatic conditions. This argues for identifying and managing mental health conditions that co-occur with somatic conditions.