Excess mortality in Europe coincides with peaks of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), November 2023 to February 2024

Since the end of November 2023, the European Mortality Monitoring Network (EuroMOMO) has observed excess mortality in Europe. During weeks 48 2023-6 2024, preliminary results show a substantially increased rate of 95.3 (95% CI:  91.7-98.9) excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 person-years for all ages. This excess mortality is seen in adults aged 45 years and older, and coincides with widespread presence of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) observed in many European countries during the 2023/24 winter season.

Real-time monitoring shows substantial excess all-cause mortality during second wave of COVID-19 in Europe, October to December 2020

The European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network monitors weekly excess all-cause mortality in 27 European countries or subnational areas. During the first wave of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Europe in spring 2020, several countries experienced extraordinarily high levels of excess mortality. Europe is currently seeing another upsurge in COVID-19 cases, and EuroMOMO is again witnessing a substantial excess all-cause mortality attributable to COVID-19.

Excess all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe - preliminary pooled estimates from the EuroMOMO network, March to April 2020

A remarkable excess mortality has coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. We present preliminary pooled estimates of all-cause mortality for 24 European countries/federal states participating in the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network, for the period March–April 2020. Excess mortality particularly affected  ≥ 65 year olds (91% of all excess deaths), but also 45–64 (8%) and 15–44 year olds (1%). No excess mortality was observed in 0–14 year olds.

Excess all-cause and influenza-attributable mortality in Europe, December 2016 to February 2017

Since December 2016, excess all-cause mortality was observed in many European countries, especially among people aged ≥ 65 years. We estimated all-cause and influenza-attributable mortality in 19 European countries/regions. Excess mortality was primarily explained by circulation of influenza virus A(H3N2). Cold weather snaps contributed in some countries. The pattern was similar to the last major influenza A(H3N2) season in 2014/15 in Europe, although starting earlier in line with the early influenza season start.

Excess mortality among the elderly in European countries, December 2014 to February 2015

Since December 2014 and up to February 2015, the weekly number of excess deaths from all-causes among individuals?≥?65 years of age in 14 European countries have been significantly higher than in the four previous winter seasons. The rise in unspecified excess mortality coincides with increased proportion of influenza detection in the European influenza surveillance schemes with a main predominance of influenza A(H3N2) viruses seen throughout Europe in the current season, though cold snaps and other respiratory infections may also have had an effect.

Excess mortality among the elderly in 12 European countries, February and March 2012

In February and March 2012, excess deaths among the elderly have been observed in 12 European countries that carry out weekly monitoring of all-cause mortality. These preliminary data indicate that the impact of influenza in Europe differs from the recent pandemic and post-pandemic seasons. The current excess mortality among the elderly may be related to the return of influenza A(H3N2) virus, potentially with added effects of a cold snap.

Excess mortality among the elderly in 12 European countries, February and March 2012

In February and March 2012, excess deaths among the elderly have been observed in 12 European countries that carry out weekly monitoring of all-cause mortality. These preliminary data indicate that the impact of influenza in Europe differs from the recent pandemic and post-pandemic seasons. The current excess mortality among the elderly may be related to the return of influenza A(H3N2) virus, potentially with added effects of a cold snap.

Parental education and lung function of children in the PATY study

Studies of the relationships between low socio-economic status and impaired lung function were conducted mainly in Western European countries and North America. East-West differences remain unexplored. Associations between parental education and lung function were explored using data on 24,010 school-children from eight cross-sectional studies conducted in North America, Western and Eastern Europe. Parental education was defined as low and high using country-specific classifications. Country-specific estimates of effects of low parental education on volume and flow parameters were obtained using linear and logistic regression, controlling for early life and other individual risk factors. Meta-regressions were used for assessment of heterogeneity between country-specific estimates. The association between low parental education and lung function was not consistent across the countries, but showed a more pronounced inverse gradient in the Western countries. The most consistent decrease associated with low parental education was found for peak expiratory flow (PEF), ranging from -2.80 to -1.14%, with statistically significant associations in five out of eight countries. The mean odds ratio for low PEF (<75% of predicted) was 1.34 (95% CI 1.06-1.70) after all adjustments. Although social gradients were attenuated after adjusting for known risk factors, these risk factors could not completely explain the social gradient in lung function.

The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project

BACKGROUND

The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity.

METHODS

Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated.

RESULTS

The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+ 12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project

BACKGROUND

The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity.

METHODS

Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated.

RESULTS

The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+ 12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

The temporal pattern of mortality responses to ambient ozone in the APHEA project

BACKGROUND

The temporal pattern of effects of summertime ozone (O(3)) in total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality were investigated in 21 European cities participating in the APHEA-2 (Air Pollution and Health: a European Approach) project, which is fundamental in determining the importance of the effect in terms of life loss.

METHODS

Data from each city were analysed separately using distributed lag models with up to 21 lags. City-specific air pollution estimates were regressed on city-specific covariates to obtain overall estimates and to explore sources of possible heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Stronger effects on respiratory mortality that extend to a period of 2 weeks were found. A 10 microg/m(3) increase in O(3) was associated with a 0.36% (95% CI -0.21% to 0.94%) increase in respiratory deaths for lag 0 and with 3.35% (95% CI 1.90% to 4.83%) for lags 0-20. Significant adverse health effects were found of summer O(3) (June-August) on total and cardiovascular mortality that persist up to a week, but are counterbalanced by negative effects thereafter.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate that studies on acute health effects of O(3) using single-day exposures may have overestimated the effects on total and cardiovascular mortality, but underestimated the effects on respiratory mortality.

An ecological time-series study of heat-related mortality in three European cities

BACKGROUND

Europe has experienced warmer summers in the past two decades and there is a need to describe the determinants of heat-related mortality to better inform public health activities during hot weather. We investigated the effect of high temperatures on daily mortality in three cities in Europe (Budapest, London, and Milan), using a standard approach.

METHODS

An ecological time-series study of daily mortality was conducted in three cities using Poisson generalized linear models allowing for over-dispersion. Secular trends in mortality and seasonal confounding factors were controlled for using cubic smoothing splines of time. Heat exposure was modelled using average values of the temperature measure on the same day as death (lag 0) and the day before (lag 1). The heat effect was quantified assuming a linear increase in risk above a cut-point for each city. Socio-economic status indicators and census data were linked with mortality data for stratified analyses.

RESULTS

The risk of heat-related death increased with age, and females had a greater risk than males in age groups > or =65 years in London and Milan. The relative risks of mortality (per degrees C) above the heat cut-point by gender and age were: (i) Male 1.10 (95%CI: 1.07-1.12) and Female 1.07 (1.05-1.10) for 75-84 years, (ii) M 1.10 (1.06-1.14) and F 1.08 (1.06-1.11) for > or = or =85 years in Budapest (> or =24 degrees C); (i) M 1.03 (1.01-1.04) and F 1.07 (1.05-1.09), (ii) M 1.05 (1.03-1.07) and F 1.08 (1.07-1.10) in London (> or =20 degrees C); and (i) M 1.08 (1.03-1.14) and F 1.20 (1.15-1.26), (ii) M 1.18 (1.11-1.26) and F 1.19 (1.15-1.24) in Milan (> or =26 degrees C). Mortality from external causes increases at higher temperatures as well as that from respiratory and cardiovascular disease. There was no clear evidence of effect modification by socio-economic status in either Budapest or London, but there was a seemingly higher risk for affluent non-elderly adults in Milan.

CONCLUSION

We found broadly consistent determinants (age, gender, and cause of death) of heat related mortality in three European cities using a standard approach. Our results are consistent with previous evidence for individual determinants, and also confirm the lack of a strong socio-economic gradient in heat health effects currently in Europe.

Impact of High Temperatures on Mortality

BACKGROUND

Mortality during sustained periods of hot weather is generally regarded as being in excess of what would be predicted from smooth temperature-mortality gradients estimated using standard time-series regression models. However, the evidence for an effect of continuous days of exceptional heat ("heat wave effect") is indirect. In addition, because some interventions may be triggered only during forecasted heat waves, it would be helpful to know what fraction of all heat-related deaths falls during these specific periods and what fraction occurs throughout the remainder of the summer.

METHODS

Extended time-series data sets of daily mortality counts in 3 major European cities (London, 28 years of data; Budapest, 31 years; Milan, 18 years) were examined in relation to hot weather using a generalized estimating equations approach. We modeled temperature and specific heat wave terms using a variety of specifications.

RESULTS

With a linear effect of same-day temperature above an identified threshold, an additional "heat wave" effect of 5.5% was observed in London (95% confidence interval = 2.2 to 8.9), 9.3% in Budapest (5.8 to 13.0), and 15.2% in Milan (5.7 to 22.5). Heat wave effects were reduced slightly when we relaxed the linear assumption and these effects were reduced substantially when temperature was modeled as an average value of lags 0 to 2 days. In London, fewer than half of all heat-related deaths could be attributed to identified heat wave periods. In Milan and Budapest, the fraction was less than one fifth.

CONCLUSIONS

Heat wave effects were apparent in simple time-series models but were reduced in multilag nonlinear models and small when compared with the overall summertime mortality burden of heat. Reduction of the overall heat burden requires preventive measures in addition to those that target warnings and responses uniquely to heat waves.

Estimating the exposure-response relationships between particulate matter and mortality within the APHEA multicity project

Several studies have reported significant health effects of air pollution even at low levels of air pollutants, but in most of theses studies linear nonthreshold relations were assumed. We investigated the exposure-response association between ambient particles and mortality in the 22 European cities participating in the APHEA (Air Pollution and Health--A European Approach) project, which is the largest available European database. We estimated the exposure-response curves using regression spline models with two knots and then combined the individual city estimates of the spline to get an overall exposure-response relationship. To further explore the heterogeneity in the observed city-specific exposure-response associations, we investigated several city descriptive variables as potential effect modifiers that could alter the shape of the curve. We conclude that the association between ambient particles and mortality in the cities included in the present analysis, and in the range of the pollutant common in all analyzed cities, could be adequately estimated using the linear model. Our results confirm those previously reported in Europe and the United States. The heterogeneity found in the different city-specific relations reflects real effect modification, which can be explained partly by factors characterizing the air pollution mix, climate, and the health of the population.

Short-Term Effects of Air Pollution on Total and Cardiovascular Mortality

BACKGROUND

Air pollution is associated with total mortality. This association may be confounded by uncontrolled time-varying risk factors such as influenza epidemics.

METHODS

We analyzed independent data on influenza epidemics from 7 European cities that also had data on mortality associated with particulates (PM10). We used 10 methods to control for epidemics (5 derived from influenza data and 5 from respiratory mortality series) and compared those results with analyses that did not control for these epidemics.

RESULTS

Adjustment for influenza epidemics increased the PM10 effect estimate in most cases (% change in the pooled regression coefficient: -1.9 to 38.9 for total mortality and 1.3 to 25.5 for cardiovascular mortality). A 10-microg/m increase in PM10 concentrations (lag 0-1) was associated with a 0.48% (95% confidence interval=0.27-0.70%) increase in daily mortality unadjusted for influenza epidemics, whereas under the various methods to control for epidemics the increase ranged from 0.45% (0.26-0.69%) to 0.67% (0.46-0.89%). The corresponding figures for cardiovascular mortality were 0.85% (0.53-1.18%) with no adjustment and from 0.86% (0.53-1.19%) to 1.06% (0.74-1.39%) with the methods of control.

CONCLUSIONS

The association between air pollution and mortality is not weakened by control for influenza epidemic irrespective of the method used. To adjust for influenza epidemics, one can use methods based on respiratory mortality counts instead of counts of influenza cases if the latter are not available. However, adjustment for influenza by any method tested did not markedly alter the air pollution effect estimate.

Short-term effects of ambient particles on mortality in the elderly: results from 28 cities in the APHEA2 project

Within the framework of the APHEA2 (Air Pollution on Health: a European Approach) project, the effects of ambient particles on mortality among persons > or = 65 yrs were investigated. Daily measurements for particles with a 50% cut-off aerodynamic diameter of 10 microm (PM10) and black smoke (BS), as well as the daily number of deaths among persons > or = 65 yrs of age, from 29 European cities, have been collected. Data on other pollutants and meteorological variables, to adjust for confounding effects and data on city characteristics, to investigate potential effect modification, were also recorded. For individual city analysis, generalised additive models extending Poisson regression, using a locally weighted regression (LOESS) smoother to control for seasonal effects, were applied. To combine individual city results and explore effect modification, second stage regression models were applied. The per cent increase (95% confidence intervals), associated with a 10 microg x m(-3) increase in PM10, in the elderly daily number of deaths was 0.8%, (0.7-0.9%) and the corresponding number for BS was 0.6%, (0.5-0.8%). The effect size was modified by the long-term average levels of nitrogen dioxide (higher levels were associated with larger effects), temperature (larger effects were observed in warmer countries), and by the proportion of the elderly in each city (a larger proportion was associated with higher effects). These results indicate that ambient particles have effects on mortality among the elderly, with relative risks comparable or slightly higher than those observed for total mortality and similar effect modification patterns. The effects among the older persons are of particular importance, since the attributable number of events will be much larger, compared to the number of deaths among the younger population.

Confounding and effect modification in the short-term effects of ambient particles on total mortality: results from 29 European cities within the APHEA2 project

We present the results of the Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach 2 (APHEA2) project on short-term effects of ambient particles on mortality with emphasis on effect modification. We used daily measurements for particulate matter less than 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and/or black smoke from 29 European cities. We considered confounding from other pollutants as well as meteorologic and chronologic variables. We investigated several variables describing the cities' pollution, climate, population, and geography as potential effect modifiers. For the individual city analysis, generalized additive models extending Poisson regression, using a smoother to control for seasonal patterns, were applied. To provide quantitative summaries of the results and explain remaining heterogeneity, we applied second-stage regression models. The estimated increase in the daily number of deaths for all ages for a 10 microg/m3 increase in daily PM10 or black smoke concentrations was 0.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.4-0.8%], whereas for the elderly it was slightly higher. We found important effect modification for several of the variables studied. Thus, in a city with low average NO2, the estimated increase in daily mortality for an increase of 10 microg/m3 in PM10 was 0.19 (95% CI = 0.00-0.41), whereas in a city with high average NO2 it was 0.80% (95% CI = 0.67-0.93%); in a relatively cold climate the corresponding effect was 0.29% (95% CI = 0.16-0.42), whereas in a warm climate it was 0.82% (95% CI = 0.69-0.96); in a city with low standardized mortality rate it was 0.80% (95% CI = 0.65-0.95%), and in one with a high rate it was 0.43% (95% CI = 0.24-0.62). Our results confirm those previously reported on the effects of ambient particles on mortality. Furthermore, they show that the heterogeneity found in the effect parameters among cities reflects real effect modification, which is explained by specific city characteristics.

Association between the clastogenic effect in peripheral lymphocytes and human exposure to arsenic through drinking water

We describe the association between structural chromosome aberrations (CAs) and parameters of exposure to arsenic among 42 individuals exposed to arsenic through well waters in Finland. The median concentration of arsenic in the wells was 410 microg/l, the total arsenic concentrations in urine (As-tot) was 180 microg/l, and in hair 1.3 microg/g, for current users (n = 32) of contaminated wells. Urinary arsenic species and CAs were also analyzed in eight control individuals from the same village who consumed water which contained arsenic <1.0 microg/l (detection limit). Increased arsenic exposure, indicated best by increased concentrations of arsenic species (inorganic arsenic, methylarsonic acid (MMA), dimethylarsinic acid (DMA)) in urine, was associated with increased frequency of CAs. The increased urinary ratio of MMA/As-tot and the decreased ratio of DMA/As-tot were associated with increased CAs when all aberration types, including gaps, were considered. Associations between CAs and arsenic exposure indicators were stronger among current users than among persons who had stopped using the contaminated well water for 2-4 months before sampling (ex-users, n = 10). Furthermore, there was a positive but not statistically significant association between CAs and arsenic in hair among the current users, but not among the ex-users, who still had relatively high arsenic concentrations in hair. The results suggest that the effect observed in the present study reflects relatively recent arsenic exposure.