Heart rate variability and atrial fibrillation in the general population: a longitudinal and mendelian randomization study

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): The Rotterdam Study is funded by Erasmus Medical Center and Erasmus University, Rotterdam, Netherlands Organization for the Health Research and Development (ZonMw), the Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly (RIDE), the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science, the Ministry for Health, Welfare and Sports, the European Commission (DG XII), and the Municipality of Rotterdam. This study is further supported by the Gender and prevention grant (555003017) from ZonMw.

Background

Sex-differences and the causality of the association between heart rate variability (HRV) and atrial fibrillation (AF) remain unclear.

Purpose

To investigate the sex-differences and the causality of the association between heart rate variability and atrial fibrillation.

Methods

12,334 participants free of AF from a large population-based cohort study were included. Measures of HRV including the standard deviation of normal RR-intervals (SDNN), SDNN corrected for heart rate (SDNNc), RR-interval differences (RMSSD), RMSSD corrected for heart rate (RMSSDc), and heart rate were assessed at baseline and follow-up examinations. Joint models, adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, were used to determine the association between longitudinal measures of HRV with new-onset AF. Additionally, we evaluated sex-differences. Genetic variants for HRV were used as instrumental variables in a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis using GWAS summary-level data.

Results

During a median follow-up of 9.4 years, 1,302 incident AF cases occurred. In joint models, higher SDNN (hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.24, 1.04-1.47, p=0.0213), and higher RMSSD (HR, 95% CI, 1.33, 1.13-1.54, p=0.0010) were significantly associated with new-onset AF. Sex-stratified analyses showed that the associations were mostly prominent among women. In MR analyses, genetically determined decreases in SDNN (odds ratio (OR), 95% CI, 1.60, 1.27-2.02, p=8.36x10-05), and RMSSD (OR, 95% CI, 1.56, 1.31-1.86, p= 6.32x10-07) were significantly associated with increased AF risk.

Conclusions

Longitudinal measures of uncorrected HRV were significantly associated with new-onset AF, in particular among women. MR analyses supported the causal relationship between uncorrected measures of HRV with AF. Our findings indicate that measures to modulate HRV might prevent AF in the general population, especially among women.

Heart rate variability and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus

Background

Hyperglycemia and autonomic dysfunction are bidirectionally related. The implications from former cross-sectional studies regarding the association of autonomic dysfunction and diabetes are limited due to the potential reverse causation. We aimed to investigate the association of longitudinal evolution of heart rate variability (HRV) with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) among the general population.

Methods

Using data from the prospective population-based cohort study, 7630 participants with available repeated assessments of HRV, who were free of T2D and atrial fibrillation, were included. Measurements of HRV were analyzed from standard 10-s electrocardiograms records, including heart rate and two time-domain HRV markers: the heart-rate corrected standard deviation of the normal-to-normal RR intervals (SDNNc) and heart-rate corrected root mean square of successive RR-interval differences (RMSSDc). Joint models with the Bayes approach were performed to assess the associations between longitudinal evolutions of heart rate and different HRV metrics with incident T2D during follow-up. Models were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, use of blood pressure-lowering or lipid-lowering medication, and prevalent cardiovascular disease. Spearmen correlation was used to examine the associations between HRV metrics and glycemic traits (fasting blood glucose, insulin, and homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and beta-cell function (HOMA-β)) at baseline.

Results

During a median follow-up time of 8.6 years, 871 individuals developed T2D. Based on joint models, one standard deviation (SD) increment of heart rate (hazard ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.09–1.34), log(SDNNc) (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.94–1.27), and log(RMSSDc) (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.02–1.31) was associated with the risk of developing T2D in fully-adjusted models. Subgroup analyses suggested stronger associations among men. The HRs of incident T2D per SD increment were 1.25 (1.09, 1.43) for men and 1.16 (0.99, 1.35) for women for heart rate, 1.23 (1.01, 1.51) for men and 0.97 (0.78, 1.20) for women for log(SDNNc), and 1.24 (1.05, 1.48) for men and 1.09 (0.89, 1.31) for women for log(RMSSDc). Results did not change after excluding participants who were prediabetes at baseline or after exclusion of underweight participants. Spearmen correlation indicated that heart rate was significantly associated with baseline glycemic traits, while RMSSDc was only related to fasting blood glucose.

Conclusion

Our study suggests that both higher heart rate and heart rate variability are associated with an increased risk of T2D development, especially among men.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Erasmus MC and Erasmus University Rotterdam; Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research; Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw); Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly; Netherlands Genomics Initiative; Netherlands Ministry of Education, Culture and Science; Netherlands Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sports; European Commission; and Municipality of Rotterdam. We would like to thank the China Scholarship Council for the scholarship to K.W. Forest plot

Cardiac biomarkers for cardiovascular risk prediction among women and men from the general population

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): the Erasmus Medical Center and Erasmus University Rotterdam; the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw);

Purpose

To evaluate the sex-specific predictive value of two cardiac biomarkers; N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), alongside traditional cardiovascular risk factors, for 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in general population.

Methods

A total of 5430 participants (mean age 68.1 years; 59.9% women) free of cardiovascular disease (CVD), with blood sample measurements between 1997 and 2001 were included. We developed a ‘base’ model using cardiovascular risk factors used in the Pooled Cohort Equation (includes age, sex, systolic blood pressure, treatment of hypertension, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, smoking, and diabetes) and then extended the ‘base’ model with NT-proBNP or hs-cTnT. These models were developed for coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and heart failure (HF) and also for composite CVD outcomes. To evaluate biomarkers’ added predictive value, c-statistic, and net reclassification improvement index (NRI) for events and non-events were calculated. NRI was calculated using cutoffs of 5%, 7.5% and 20% to categorize participants as low, borderline, intermediate, or high risk.

Results

Adding NT-proBNP to the ‘base’ model significantly improved c-statistic for all outcomes (increases ranged between 0.012-0.047), with the largest improvement in HF [0.026 (95% CI, 0.013, 0.040) for women and 0.047 (95% CI, 0.026, 0.069) for men]. Adding hs-TnT to ‘base’ model increased the c-statistic for CHD in women by 0.040 (95% CI, 0.013, 0.067) and for HF in men by 0.032 (95% CI, 0.005, 0.059). Improvments in reclassification by both biomarkers were mostly limited to modest improvemetns in reclassification of non-events [largest non-event NRI for global CVD in women (NT-proBNP: 11.8%; hs-cTnT: 10.5%) and for HF in men (NT-proBNP: 9.6%; hs-cTnT: 8.4%)].

Conclusion

NT-proBNP improved model performance for prediction of all cardiovascular outcomes, in particular for HF, beyond traditional risk factors for both women and men. Hs-cTnT showed modest added predictive value beyond traditional risk factors for CHD among women and for HF among men. Imropovements in reclassification by both biomarkers were modest and not clinically relevant.

Improvements of 10-year risk predictions Events Adding NT-proBNP Adding troponin T Delta c-statistic* Event NRI, % Non-event NRI, % Delta c-statistic* Event NRI, % Non-event NRI, % WomenASCVD Global CVD 0.012 (0.004, 0.020) 0.018 (0.010, 0.026) -1.7 (-5.0, 1.5)-0.8 (-3.8, 2.2) 5.4 (3.5, 7.2)11.8 (9.6, 14.1) 0.028 (0.009, 0.048)0.025 (0.009, 0.040) -0.4 (-7.1, 6.2)2.9 (-2.4, 8.3) 6.9 (3.9, 9.9)10.5 (7.3, 13.8) MenASCVD Global CVD 0.016 (0.005, 0.027)0.023 (0.012, 0.033) 0.7 (-2.3, 3.7)-0.3 (-3.0, 2.4) 5.2 (3.2, 7.2)7.2 (4.9, 9.4) 0.007 (-0.002, 0.016)0.011 (0.000, 0.021) -1.1 (-5.0, 2.7)-1.6 (-6.0, 2.8) 4.0 (1.2, 6.9)6.4 (3.1, 9.7) ASCVD comprises coronary heart disease and stroke; Global CVD comprises coronary heart disease, stroke and heart failure.

Longitudinal changes in anthropometric measures and new-onset atrial fibrillation among men and women from general population

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia of clinical significance. Recent evidence suggests differences in epidemiology and risk factors of AF between women and men. Obesity and body size are established risk factors for AF. However, anthropometric measures tend to change over time. Few studies have investigated the impact of longitudinal changes in anthropometric measures on incident AF among men and women.

Purpose

To assess the association between longitudinal changes in different anthropometric measures and new-onset AF among community-dwelling men and women.

Methods

Among 12,848 participants free of AF at baseline were included in this large prospective population-based cohort study, each anthropometric measure was measured at least once and up to five times. Anthropometric measures included weight, height, waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), waist to hip ratio (WHR), and body mass index (BMI). Anthropometric measures were standardized for direct comparisons. Joint models were used to assess the association of each anthropometric factor and their longitudinal changes with incident AF. Models were adjusted for age and traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

Results

A total of 5,266 men and 7,218 women (mean age 63.87 years for men and 64.94 years for women) were followed up for a median of 10.5 years. AF occurred in 630 (12.0%) men and 692 (8.7%) women. Longitudinal increases in weight, height, WC, HC and BMI increased the risk for new-onset AF in a linear manner. The age-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were 1.38 (1.26–1.51) for weight, 1.41 (1.26–1.59) for height, 1.26 (1.13–1.41) for WC, 1.36 (1.19–1.55) for HC and 1.22 (1.11–1.35) for BMI among men. Among women, the age-adjusted HRs (95% CI) were 1.41 (1.30–1.52) for weight, 1.21 (1.07–1.38) for height, 1.39 (1.27–1.52) for WC, 1.29 (1.19–1.40) for HC and 1.28 (1.19–1.37) for BMI. Further, longitudinal increase in WHR was significantly associated with increased risk of AF in women [HR (95% CI): 1.42 (1.21–1.66)] but not in men [HR (95% CI): 1.11 (0.96–1.30)].

Conclusions

Longitudinal changes in anthropometric measures were associated with the increased risk for new-onset AF among men and women in the general population. An increase in measures of central obesity over time showed a stronger association with incident AF among women, compared to men. Our findings underscore the importance of a sex-specific approach for screening and monitoring of anthropometric measures for AF prevention.

Main results among men and women

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Longitudinal changes of left ventricular systolic function and risk of heart failure and mortality among men and women from a general population

Background

The incidence and characteristics of heart failure (HF) differ between men and women. However, evidence regarding sex differences in determinants and changes of cardiac function in association with incidence of HF remains scarce.

Purpose

To study the evolution and determinants of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) over time and its association with incident mortality and HF among men and women.

Methods

From a population-based cohort, we included 7923 participants, 3319 men and 4604 women, free of heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation with up to 3 repeated echocardiographic measurements. Using joint models, we analyzed the evolution of LVEF and its associated traditional cardiovascular risk factors among men and women. Second, we studied the association of LVEF changes with incident HF and mortality as a composite outcome adjusted for age (time-varying covariate) and traditional cardiovascular risk factors. We then performed the analyses with HF and mortality as competing events.

Results

Mean (SD) age was 65.7 (9.6) in men and 66.5 (10) in women. During a median follow-up of 9 years, 988 events in men and 840 events in women occurred. LVEF had a one-directional nonlinear declining with increasing age among men and women (Figure). Up to age of 70, LVEF showed a sharper decline per year among men compared to women. Every unit increase in systolic blood pressure (SBP) was associated with 0.03% (0.05% to 0.02%) decrease in LVEF per year in men. Among women, SBP had an inverse J-shaped association with LVEF changes (P<0.001). Diastolic blood pressure (DBP) also showed a non-linear association with LVEF in both sexes. Prevalent diabetes was not associated with LVEF change. In the survival analysis, every 5% decrease in LVEF was associated with 35% and 30% increase in the risk of the composite outcome among men [HR (95% CI): 1.35 (1.26 to 1.43)] and women [HR (95% CI): 1.30 (1.22 to 1.40)].

Conclusion(s)

Despite a similar risk of LVEF decline for the composite outcome, the evolution of LVEF, especially before 70 years of age, differ between men and women. Cardiovascular risk factors, especially blood pressure, play diverse roles in the evolution of left ventricular systolic function among men and women.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): The Rotterdam Study is funded by Erasmus Medical Center and Erasmus University, Rotterdam, Netherlands Organization for the Health Research and Development (ZonMw), the Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly (RIDE), the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science, the Ministry for Health, Welfare and Sports, the European Commission (DG XII), and the Municipality of Rotterdam.

Sex-specific reference values and determinants of infra-renal abdominal aortic diameter among women and men from general population

Introduction

Abdominal aortic diameter has shown to be a marker of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Among the non-aneurysmal populations, studies regarding abdominal aortic diameter normal reference values are sparse. Moreover, data regarding the associations between cardiovascular risk factors and aortic diameter among men and women are limited.

Purpose

To establish age- and sex-specific distribution of the infra-renal abdominal aortic diameters among non-aneurysmal older adults from the general population and to investigate the associations between cardiovascular risk factors and aortic diameters in men and women.

Methods

From a population-based cohort, 4032 participants (mean age, 67.2 years; 60.4% women) with infra-renal diameter assessment and without history of cardiovascular disease were included. Mean and quantile values of diameters were calculated in different age groups. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to detect the association of cardiovascular risk factors with diameters in men and women.

Results

The mean crude diameter was larger in men [mean (SD): 19.5 (2.6) mm] compared to women [17.0 (2.4)mm] but after adjustment for body surface area (BSA), the differences were small. There was a non-linear relationship between age and diameter (p<0.001). After 66 years of age, the increase in diameter with increasing age was attenuated. After age 74 years in women and 71 years in men, the relationship between age and infra-renal aortic diameter was no longer statistically significant (Figure). Waist [standardized β (95% CI): 0.02 (0.0–0.04) in women and 0.03 (0.01–0.06) in men] and diastolic blood pressure [0.04 (0.02–0.05) in women and 0.02 (0.0–0.04) in men] were the risk factors for diameters in both sexes. Body mass index [0.02 (0.01–0.09)], systolic blood pressure [−0.01 (−0.02 to −0.01)], smoking status [0.21 (0.02–0.39)], cholesterol [−0.19 (−0.29 to −0.09)], and lipid-lowering medication [−0.47 (−0.71 to −0.23)] were significantly associated with aortic diameter only in women.

Conclusion

The differences in the crude abdominal aortic diameter between women and men diminished after taking into account the BSA. The abdominal aortic diameter increased steeply with advancing age and up to 66 years of age. However, after 74 years in women and 71 years in men, the diameter values reached a plateau. We also observed sex differences in the associations of cardiovascular risk factors with abdominal aortic diameter.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): Netherlands Organization for the Health Research and Development (ZonMw); the Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly (RIDE)

Arterial calcification in the prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease among women and men

Background

The Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) Score has emerged as a valuable tool in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk stratification. However, data on the relevance of arterial calcification in different vascular territories for ASCVD risk prediction is lacking.

Purpose

First, to assess the sex-specific distribution of arterial calcification in different vessel beds across ASCVD risk categories. Second, to determine the added value of arterial calcification in different vascular territories for ASCVD risk prediction.

Methods

From a large population-based study, 2,139 participants (mean age 69 years, 55% women) underwent non-contrast computed tomography to quantify CAC, aortic arch calcification (AAC), extracranial- (ECAC) and intracranial carotid artery calcification (ICAC), and vertebrobasilar artery calcification (VBAC). The outcome measure, incident ASCVD, composed of fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), other coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, and stroke. We fitted sex-specific prediction models according to the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE), and categorized participants into low- (<5%), borderline- (5% to 7.5%), intermediate- (7.5% to 20%), and high ASCVD risk (≥20%), based on the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA) guideline. Subsequently, we determined the distribution of calcifications in different vascular territories across the risk categories. Next, we extended the PCE prediction model with calcification volumes and calculated the c-statistic and the net reclassification improvement for events (NRIe) and non-events (NRIne).

Results

The median follow-up for ASCVD was 9.3 years. Among women, 38% was classified as low-risk, 19% as borderline risk, 31% as intermediate risk, and 12% as high risk. Among men, 2% was classified as low-risk, 10% as borderline risk, 60% as intermediate risk, and 28% as high risk. With increasing risk of ASCVD, a larger burden of calcification was observed. In women, simultaneously adding calcification volumes in all vessel beds led to the largest increase in c statistic (from 0.71 to 0.75) for the prediction of ASCVD and the most beneficial reclassification (NRIe: 11%, NRIne: 2%). Among men, the addition of CAC alone most substantially improved the prediction of ASCVD (c statistic improved from 0.65 to 0.68, NRIe and NRIne were 4% and 14%, respectively).

Conclusions

Our findings suggest a potential role for comprehensive assessment of calcification in different vessel beds for ASCVD risk stratification in particular among women.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): The Rotterdam Study is supported by Erasmus MC and Erasmus University Rotterdam; the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research; the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw); the Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly; the Netherlands Genomics Initiative; the Ministry of Education, Culture, and Science; the Ministry of Health, Welfare, and Sports; European Commission; and the Municipality of Rotterdam. Dr. Kavousi is supported by the VENI grant (91616079) from ZonMw. Dr. Bos was supported by a fellowship of the BrightFocus Foundation (A2017424F). Oscar L. Rueda-Ochoa receives a scholarship from COLCIENCIAS-Colombia and support from Universidad Industrial de Santander,UIS-Colombia. None of the funders had any role in study design; study conduct; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; and preparation, review, or approval of the article.

P4152Implications of the ACC/AHA risk score for heart failure risk prediction and its comparison with existing heart failure risk prediction models: A prospective population-based cohort study

Background

In 2013, the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and the American Heart Association (AHA) developed a score for assessment of cardiovascular risk. Due to between study variability in ascertainment and adjudication of heart failure (HF), incident HF was not included as an endpoint in the ACC/AHA risk score.

Purpose

To assess the performance of the ACC/AHA risk score for HF risk prediction in a large population-based cohort and to compare its performance with the existing HF risk prediction models including the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) model and the Health Aging and Body Composition (Health ABC) model.

Methods

The study included 2743 men and 3646 women from a prospective population-based cohort study. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted using risk factors applied by the ACC/AHA model for cardiovascular risk, the ARIC model and the Health ABC model. Independent relationship of each predictor with 10-year HF incidence was estimated in men and women. Next, N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) was added to the ACC/AHA model.

The performance of all fitted models was evaluated and compared in terms of discrimination, calibration and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). In addition, area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity of each model in predicting 10-year incident of HF was assessed. The incremental value of NT-pro-BNP to the ACC/AHA model, was assessed using the continuous net reclassification improvement index (NRI).

Results

During a median follow-up of 13 years (63127 person-years), 387 HF events in women and 259 in men were recorded. The Optimism-corrected c-statistic for ACC/AHA model was 0.76 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73–0.79) for men and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.74–0.79) for women. The ARIC model provided the largest c-statistic for both men [0.82 (95% CI: 0.80–0.84)] and women [95% CI: 0.81 (0.79–0.83)] among the three models. Calibration of the models was reasonable.

Addition of NT-pro-BNP to the ACC/AHA model considerably improved model fitness for men and for women. The AIC improved from 3104.62 to 2976.28 among men and from 5161.63 to 4921.51 among women. The c-statistic also improved to 0.81 (0.78–0.84) in men and 0.79 (0.77–0.81) in women. The continuous NRI for the addition of NT-pro-BNP to the base model was 5.3% (95% CI: −12.3–28.6%) for men and 15.9% (95% CI: 2.7–24.7%) for women.

Conclusions

Compared to HF-specific models, the ACC/AHA model, containing routine clinically available risk factors, had a reasonable performance in prediction of HF risk. Inclusion of NT-pro-BNP in the ACC/AHA model strongly increased the model performance. To achieve a better model performance for 10-year prediction of incident HF, updating the simple ACC/AHA risk score with the addition of NT-pro-BNP is recommended.

Relationship of hyperinsulinaemia, insulin resistance and β-cell dysfunction with incident diabetes and pre-diabetes: the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study

AIMS

To examine the association of fasting insulin, insulin resistance and reduced β-cell function with incident Type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes (isolated impaired fasting glucose/isolated impaired glucose tolerance and combined impaired fasting glucose/impaired glucose tolerance).

METHODS

An Iranian population comprising 1532 men and 2221 women, aged ≥ 20 years, with normal fasting glucose and normal glucose tolerance at baseline, were enrolled in the study. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate the hazard ratios and 95% CIs of fasting insulin, updated homeostasis model assessments of insulin resistance and β-cell function for incident Type 2 diabetes, isolated impaired fasting glucose, isolated impaired glucose tolerance and combined impaired fasting glucose/impaired glucose tolerance.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 9.2 years, the annual incidence rates (95% CI) of diabetes were 3.73 (2.74-4.94) and 4.06 (3.21-5.06) per 1000 person-years in men and women, respectively. In both men and women, fasting insulin and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (≥ 75th percentile) were significantly associated with incident diabetes and combined impaired fasting glucose/impaired glucose tolerance; however, reduced β-cell function as measured by homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function (< 25th percentile) was associated with incident isolated impaired fasting glucose solely in men [hazard ratio 1.35 (95% CI 1.02-1.78)] in multivariable analysis including waist-hip ratio). Hyperinsulinaemia, insulin resistance and β-cell dysfunction were not related to the incidence of isolated impaired glucose tolerance in either gender.

CONCLUSIONS

Fasting hyperinsulinaemia and insulin resistance were strong risk factors for progression to diabetes and combined impaired fasting glucose/impaired glucose tolerance in a population with normal fasting glucose/normal glucose tolerance. In addition, impaired β-cell function at baseline was related to the development of isolated impaired fasting glucose only in men and, in both men and women, neither insulin resistance nor β-cell dysfunction were associated with incident isolated impaired glucose tolerance.