Rehospitalization as a predictor of mortality in Polish population of heart failure patients-national registry

Background

High mortality risk in heart failure (HF) is related to repeat HF hospitalizations but also individual patient characteristics.

Purpose

To evaluate the impact of HF re-/hospitalizations and patient-related factors (sex, HF etiology, age, comorbidity) on all-cause mortality.

Methods

Our study represents one of the most extensive retrospective cohort analyses consisting of 1,686,861 adult Polish HF patients who presented into public health system in years 2013–2018. It is a part of a nationwide National Health Fund registry covering out- and in-patient data for the entire Polish population (38,495,659 in 2013) since 2009. HF hospitalizations were extracted using ICD-10 coding, whereas the comorbidity was evaluated by means of Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI).

Results

In years 2013–2018 the absolute number of HF hospitalizations in Poland grew by 33% to 264,808 in 2018, whereas the number of rehospitalizations increased 1.5-fold to reach 137,708 in 2018.

In fact, nearly half of HF patients (n=817,432; 48.5%) experienced at least one hospitalization, while 15.4% (n=259,868) were rehospitalized during the study period. After initial hospitalization the readmission rate due to HF/all circulatory diseases at 30, 60, 180, 360, and 720 days was 10.4%/15.1%, 21.2%/28.3%, 43.9%/52.8%, 62%/70.4%, and 81%/87%, respectively.

As compared to patients who were hospitalized just once, those who underwent at least one rehospitalization were more often female (p<0.001), slightly older (p<0.001), and with higher burden of comorbidities based on CCI (p<0.001).

Patient survival was highly dependent on hospitalization frequency (Fig. 1). Mean survival rate at day 720 was 66.4%, 59.8%, 54.9%, 51%, and 43.9% for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and ≥5th hospitalization, respectively.

After adjusting for age, sex, etiology (ischemic/non-ischemic) and CCI using a multivariate stratified Cox regression model, the estimated hazard ratios (HR) for all-cause mortality amounted to 1.22 (95% CI: 1.21–1.23, p<0.001) for 2nd, 1.4 (95% CI: 1.39–1.42, p<0.001) for 3rd, 1.58 (95% CI: 1.56–1.6, p<0.001) for 4th, and 1.97 (95% CI: 1.95–1.98 p<0.001) for 5th and subsequent hospitalizations, as compared to the first hospitalization.

Conclusions

Hospitalization rate in Poland is alarmingly high. Repeat HF hospitalizations strongly predict mortality rate for HF patients even after adjustment for age, sex, etiology, and comorbidity burden.

Figure 1. Kaplan-Meier for survival post hosp.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): The project is co-financed by the European Union from the European Social Fund under the Operational Programme Knowledge Education Development and it is being carried out by the Analyses and Strategies Department of the Polish Ministry of Health.

Cardiac rehabilitation effectively reduces the number of deaths in the heart failure population (propensity score matched analysis)

Background

Numerous cardiac rehabilitation (CR) studies have demonstrated functional benefits, improvement in quality of life and clinical outcomes from exercise training in patients with heart failure (HF), so CR is consistently recommend for HF patients. However its influence on survival in HF population is unknown.

Purpose

To assess the influence of CR on survival rate in HF patients.

Methods

It is a retrospective analysis of 1 620 686 HF patients in Poland in years 2013–2018, based on nationwide Polish Ministry of Health registry, that provides public universal healthcare coverage to all residents and collects detailed information for the entire Polish population (38,495,659 in 2013) since 2009. Within registry, we identified the experimental group of 11 512 HF patients ≥18 years old who underwent CR in 2013–2018.

From entire HF population we identified a 1:1 propensity score matched cohort of HF patients, who did not get CR.

Results

After propensity-score matching, we identified 11,512 patient pairs who underwent/not CR. Average age was approximately 66 years (18–39: 2.1 vs 2.0%; 40–49: 491 – 4.3 vs 4.2%; 50–59: 17.0 vs 17.1%; 60–69: 34.9 vs 35.2%; 70–79: 31.3 vs 31.4%; 80+: 10.4 vs 10.3% respectively), 61% of the participants were males, mainly urban residence nearly 70%, with HF diagnose put during hospitalization 74.5%. Both groups were similar also by comorbidities evaluated by Charlson Comorbidity Index.

Patients subjected to CR compared CR negative significantly increased survival risk at 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th year (CR vs CR negative 97.4% vs. 84.9%; 93.9% vs. 77.9%; 89.9% vs. 71.9%; 85.2% vs 66.0%; 81.8% vs 62.1% respectively) – Figure 1.

Conclusion

Our analysis showed that in heart failure patients, CR was associated with an increased survival rate among HF patients as treated in routine health care system.

Figure1

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Other. Main funding source(s): European Union from the European Social Fund

Real world heart failure epidemiology and outcome: a population-based analysis of 1,990,162 heart failure patients

Background

Heart failure (HF) is the leading cause of death and hospitalization in developed countries. Most of the information about HF is based on selected cohorts, the real epidemiology of HF is scarce.

Purpose

To assess trends in the real world incidence, prevalence and mortality of all in-and outpatients with HF who presented in public health system in 2009–2018 in Poland.

Methods

It is a retrospective analysis of 1,990,162 patients who presented with HF in Poland in years 2009–2018. It is a part of nationwide Polish Ministry of Health registry that collects detailed information for the entire Polish population (38,495,659 in 2013) since 2009. Detailed data within the registry were collected since 2013. HF was recorded if HF diagnosis was coded (ICD-10).

Results

The incidence of HF in Poland fell down from 2013 to reach 127,036 newly diagnosed cases (330 per 100,000 population) in 2018 that equals to 43.6% drop. This decrease was mainly driven by marked reduction in females (p<0.001; Fig. 1A) and HF of ischaemic etiology (HF-IE vs HF-nonIE, Fig. 1B. p<0.001). The HF incidence per 100,000 population decreased across all age groups with the greatest drop in the youngest (Table 1).

The prevalence rose by 11.6% to reach 1,242,129 (3233 per 100,000 population) in 2018 with significantly greater increase in females and HF-IE (both p<0.0001, Fig. 1C and D, respectively). The HF prevalence per 100,000 population increased across all age groups except for the 70–79 years old. (Table 1).

Mortality increased by 28.5% to reach 142,379 cases (370 per 100,000 population) in 2018. The rise was more pronounced among females (p=0.015, Fig. 1E) and in HF-IE (p<0.001, Fig. 1F). The HF mortality per 100 000 population increased across all age groups, except for the 50–59 subgroup (Table 1).

Conclusions

Heart failure incidence plummeted in years 2013–2018 in Poland due to drop in newly diagnosed HF-IE. Despite that fact, the prevalence and mortality increased with rising trends in HF-IE.

Figure 1. Incidence, prevalence, mortality trends

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): The project is co-financed by the European Union from the European Social Fund under the Operational Programme Knowledge Education Development and it is being carried out by the Analyses and Strategies Department of the Polish Ministry of Health

Presentation of the International Nomenclature for Congenital Heart Surgery. The long way from nomenclature to collection of validated data at the EACTS

An International Nomenclature for Congenital Heart Surgery was officially adopted at the Annual Meeting of the EACTS in Glasgow, UK on September 6, 1999. This nomenclature was achieved following 1 year's work of the International Nomenclature and Data Base Committee for Congenital Heart Surgery of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons. This international group included members from the STS, AATS, AHA and EACTS and associated surgeons and cardiologists from United States, Canada, Australia and Europe. The Nomenclature includes a minimal data set of 21 items and lists of 150 diagnoses, 200 procedures, 32 complications and 28 extra cardiac anomalies and preoperative risk factors. It will serve as a basis for the Pediatric European Cardiac Surgical Registry (http://www.pediatric. ecsur.org). The outcome of such an International Nomenclature represents an important event for the medical community in charge of treating patients with congenital heart diseases. It will allow scientific exchanges on an international scale and promote multicenter evaluation of congenital heart surgery. Nevertheless, this Nomenclature is only the first step. Further collection of validated data at the Pediatric ECSUR Data Base requires ethical belief, time consumption and financial resources. Comparison of results, according to pathologies, across centers and countries will help define, in the future, official European standards of Quality of Care available for health care organizations, public scrutiny and governmental agencies.

[Risk factors of late ventricular arrhythmias after total correction of tetralogy of Fallot in children]

The authors present an analysis of pre-, intra- and postoperative risk factors of late ventricular arrhythmias in 100 children in 5-12 years after total correction of the tetralogy of Fallot. Complex arrhythmias (III-V class according to Lown classification) were found in 19% of patients. Risk factors were: in the pre- and intraoperative period--marked endocardial fibrosis of the right ventricular outflow tract, long bypass time (> 180 min) and aortic cross-clamp (> 90 min), in the post-operative period-left ventricular dysfunction in echocardiographic examination and age > 10 years at time of the study. Complex ventricular arrhythmias were more frequent in patients with associated supraventricular arrhythmias and with progressive bundle branch block.

Determinants of survival following repair of interrupted aortic arch in infancy

Between January 1971 and March 1987, surgery was performed in 26 infants with interrupted aortic arch. At operation the 14 boys and 12 girls weighted between 1.71 and 4.23 kg (mean +/- SD = 3.1 +/- 0.63 kg) and ranged in age from 2 to 90 days (13 +/- 18 days). The interruption was distal to the left subclavian artery in 4 (15%), between the left carotid and subclavian arteries in 20 (77%) and between the brachiocephalic (innominate) and left carotid arteries in 2 (8%). Associated complex cardiac lesions in 8 patients included complete transposition (2), common arterial trunk (2), aortopulmonary window (2), double inlet left ventricle (1) and tricuspid atresia (1). The remaining patients had an isolated ventricular septal defect. The arch was reconstructed with a prosthetic conduit in 14 patients; by a direct anastomosis in 6; using the subclavian artery in 3; and with the pulmonary trunk and the arterial duct in 2. Twenty patients (77%) underwent palliative surgery as the first stage of management, and banding of the pulmonary trunk was also performed in 16 of these. Five patients (19%) underwent primary complete repair of the interruption and intracardiac anomalies. One patient (4%) died soon after thoracotomy for palliative surgery. Of the 15 (57%, 70% confidence limits CL = 46-69%) early deaths, 7 occurred in patients with complex associated defects and 4 occurred when single stage repair was attempted. Survival following first-stage palliative surgery for arch interruption with isolated ventricular septal defect was 64% (9/14) [70% CL = 47-79%]. All of these patients subsequently underwent complete repair. Chi-squared and t-tests showed the year of operation and the type of operation (two-stage repair) to be associated with improved survival. It is concluded that a two-stage repair of interrupted aortic arch offers a reasonable alternative to primary complete correction and will lead to satisfactory subsequent repair in most cases.