PROVIDENT: Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Predict Neighborhood-level Overdose Risk in Rhode Island

BACKGROUND

Drug overdose persists as a leading cause of death in the United States, but resources to address it remain limited. As a result, health authorities must consider where to allocate scarce resources within their jurisdictions. Machine learning offers a strategy to identify areas with increased future overdose risk to proactively allocate overdose prevention resources. This modeling study is embedded in a randomized trial to measure the effect of proactive resource allocation on statewide overdose rates in Rhode Island (RI).

METHODS

We used statewide data from RI from 2016 to 2020 to develop an ensemble machine learning model predicting neighborhood-level fatal overdose risk. Our ensemble model integrated gradient boosting machine and super learner base models in a moving window framework to make predictions in 6-month intervals. Our performance target, developed a priori with the RI Department of Health, was to identify the 20% of RI neighborhoods containing at least 40% of statewide overdose deaths, including at least one neighborhood per municipality. The model was validated after trial launch.

RESULTS

Our model selected priority neighborhoods capturing 40.2% of statewide overdose deaths during the test periods and 44.1% of statewide overdose deaths during validation periods. Our ensemble outperformed the base models during the test periods and performed comparably to the best-performing base model during the validation periods.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated the capacity for machine learning models to predict neighborhood-level fatal overdose risk to a degree of accuracy suitable for practitioners. Jurisdictions may consider predictive modeling as a tool to guide allocation of scarce resources.

Translating Predictive Analytics for Public Health Practice: A Case Study of Overdose Prevention in Rhode Island

Prior applications of machine learning to population health have relied on conventional model assessment criteria, limiting the utility of models as decision support tools for public health practitioners. To facilitate practitioners' use of machine learning as a decision support tool for area-level intervention, we developed and applied 4 practice-based predictive model evaluation criteria (implementation capacity, preventive potential, health equity, and jurisdictional practicalities). We used a case study of overdose prevention in Rhode Island to illustrate how these criteria could inform public health practice and health equity promotion. We used Rhode Island overdose mortality records from January 2016-June 2020 (n = 1,408) and neighborhood-level US Census data. We employed 2 disparate machine learning models, Gaussian process and random forest, to illustrate the comparative utility of our criteria to guide interventions. Our models predicted 7.5%-36.4% of overdose deaths during the test period, illustrating the preventive potential of overdose interventions assuming 5%-20% statewide implementation capacities for neighborhood-level resource deployment. We describe the health equity implications of use of predictive modeling to guide interventions along the lines of urbanicity, racial/ethnic composition, and poverty. We then discuss considerations to complement predictive model evaluation criteria and inform the prevention and mitigation of spatially dynamic public health problems across the breadth of practice. This article is part of a Special Collection on Mental Health.

Azimuthal Correlations within Exclusive Dijets with Large Momentum Transfer in Photon-Lead Collisions

The structure of nucleons is multidimensional and depends on the transverse momenta, spatial geometry, and polarization of the constituent partons. Such a structure can be studied using high-energy photons produced in ultraperipheral heavy-ion collisions. The first measurement of the azimuthal angular correlations of exclusively produced events with two jets in photon-lead interactions at large momentum transfer is presented, a process that is considered to be sensitive to the underlying nuclear gluon polarization. This study uses a data sample of ultraperipheral lead-lead collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=5.02  TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 0.38  nb^{-1}, collected with the CMS experiment at the LHC. The measured second harmonic of the correlation between the sum and difference of the two jet transverse momentum vectors is found to be positive, and rising, as the dijet transverse momentum increases. A well-tuned model that has been successful at describing a wide range of proton scattering data from the HERA experiments fails to describe the observed correlations, suggesting the presence of gluon polarization effects.

Racial differences in COVID-19 severity associated with history of substance use disorders and overdose: Findings from multi-site electronic health records in New York City

Substance use disorders (SUD) are associated with increased risk of worse COVID-19 outcomes. Likewise, racial/ethnic minority patients experience greater risk of severe COVID-19 disease compared to white patients. Providers should understand the role of race and ethnicity as an effect modifier on COVID-19 severity among individuals with SUD. This retrospective cohort study assessed patient race/ethnicity as an effect modifier of the risk of severe COVID-19 disease among patients with histories of SUD and overdose. We used merged electronic health record data from 116,471 adult patients with a COVID-19 encounter between March 2020 and February 2021 across five healthcare systems in New York City. Exposures were patient histories of SUD and overdose. Outcomes were risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and subsequent COVID-19-related ventilation, acute kidney failure, sepsis, and mortality. Risk factors included patient age, sex, and race/ethnicity, as well as medical comorbidities associated with COVID-19 severity. We tested for interaction between SUD and patient race/ethnicity on COVID-19 outcomes. Findings showed that Non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic/Latino, and Asian/Pacific Islander patients experienced a higher prevalence of all adverse COVID-19 outcomes compared to non-Hispanic white patients. Past-year alcohol (OR 1.24 [1.01-1.53]) and opioid use disorders (OR 1.91 [1.46-2.49]), as well as overdose history (OR 4.45 [3.62-5.46]), were predictive of COVID-19 mortality, as well as other adverse COVID-19 outcomes. Among patients with SUD, significant differences in outcome risk were detected between patients of different race/ethnicity groups. Findings indicate that providers should consider multiple dimensions of vulnerability to adequately manage COVID-19 disease among populations with SUDs.

The impact of preexisting psychiatric disorders and antidepressant use on COVID-19 related outcomes: a multicenter study

Pre-existing mental disorders are linked to COVID-19-related outcomes. However, the findings are inconsistent and a thorough analysis of a broader spectrum of outcomes such as COVID-19 infection severity, morbidity, and mortality is required. We investigated whether the presence of psychiatric diagnoses and/or the use of antidepressants influenced the severity of the outcome of COVID-19. This retrospective cohort study evaluated electronic health records from the INSIGHT Clinical Research Network in 116,498 individuals who were diagnosed with COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and February 23, 2021. We examined hospitalization, intubation/mechanical ventilation, acute kidney failure, severe sepsis, and death as COVID-19-related outcomes. After using propensity score matching to control for demographics and medical comorbidities, we used contingency tables to assess whether patients with (1) a history of psychiatric disorders were at higher risk of more severe COVID-19-related outcomes and (2) if use of antidepressants decreased the risk of more severe COVID-19 infection. Pre-existing psychiatric disorders were associated with an increased risk for hospitalization, and subsequent outcomes such as acute kidney failure and severe sepsis, including an increased risk of death in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders or bipolar disorders. The use of antidepressants was associated with significantly reduced risk of sepsis (p = 0.033), death (p = 0.026). Psychiatric disorder diagnosis prior to a COVID-19-related healthcare encounter increased the risk of more severe COVID-19-related outcomes as well as subsequent health complications. However, there are indications that the use of antidepressants might decrease this risk. This may have significant implications for the treatment and prognosis of patients with COVID-19.

NYC RxStat: Stakeholder perspectives on a national model public health and public safety partnership to reduce overdose deaths

NYC RxStat, the United States' first public health and public safety partnership aiming to reduce overdose deaths, began in 2012 and established a national model for cross-sector partnerships. The partnership aimed to integrate data-driven policing with actionable public health interventions and surveillance to develop and implement cross-sector overdose responses. With federal support, jurisdictions nationally have implemented public health and public safety partnerships modeled on RxStat. To inform partnership replication efforts, we conducted a stakeholder evaluation of RxStat. We conducted in-depth, semi-structured interviews with 25 current and former RxStat stakeholders. Interviews probed stakeholder perceptions of RxStat's successes, challenges, and opportunities for growth. Interview data were iteratively coded and thematically analyzed. Stakeholders reported certainty about the need for cross-sector collaboration and described cross-disciplinary tensions, challenges to collaboration and implementation, and opportunities for partnership optimization and growth. Findings informed 12 strategies to improve RxStat and partnerships in its model, organized into three opportunity areas: (1) ensure stakeholder and agency accountability; (2) build secure and mutually beneficial data systems; and (3) structure partnerships to facilitate equitable collaboration. Cross-sector partnerships offer a promising strategy to integrate the public health and safety sectors, but disciplinary tensions in approach may hamper implementation. Findings can inform efforts to implement and scale cross-sector partnerships.

Neighborhood-level association between release from incarceration and fatal overdose, Rhode Island, 2016-2020

The association between recent release from incarceration and dramatically increased risk of fatal overdose is well-established at the individual level. Fatal overdose and. arrest/release are spatially clustered, suggesting that this association may persist at the neighborhood level. We analyzed multicomponent data from Rhode Island, 2016-2020, and observed a modest association at the census tract level between rates of release per 1000 population and fatal overdose per 100,000 person-years, adjusting for spatial autocorrelation in both the exposure and outcome. Our results suggest that for each additional person released to a given census tract per 1000 population, there is a corresponding increase in the rate of fatal overdose by 2 per 100,000 person years. This association is more pronounced in suburban tracts, where each additional release awaiting trial is associated with an increase in the rate of fatal overdose of 4 per 100,000 person-years and 6 per 100,000 person-years for each additional release following sentence expiration. This association is not modified by the presence or absence of a licensed medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) treatment provider in the same or surrounding tracts. Our results suggest that neighborhood-level release rates are moderately informative as to tract-level rates of fatal overdose and underscore the importance of expanding pre-release MOUD access in correctional settings. Future research should explore risk and resource environments particularly in suburban and rural areas and their impacts on overdose risk among individuals returning to the community.

Measurements of the associated production of a W boson and a charm quark in proton-proton collisions at s = 8 TeV

Measurements of the associated production of a W boson and a charm ( c ) quark in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV are reported. The analysis uses a data sample corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb - 1 collected by the CMS detector at the LHC. The W bosons are identified through their leptonic decays to an electron or a muon, and a neutrino. Charm quark jets are selected using distinctive signatures of charm hadron decays. The product of the cross section and branching fraction σ ( pp → W + c + X ) B ( W → ℓ ν ) , where ℓ = e or μ , and the cross section ratio σ ( pp → W + + c ¯ + X ) / σ ( pp → W - + c + X ) are measured in a fiducial volume and differentially as functions of the pseudorapidity and of the transverse momentum of the lepton from the W boson decay. The results are compared with theoretical predictions. The impact of these measurements on the determination of the strange quark distribution is assessed.

COVID-19 complications among patients with opioid use disorder: a retrospective cohort study across five major NYC hospital systems

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Individuals with opioid use disorder (OUD) suffer disproportionately from COVID-19. To inform clinical management of OUD patients, research is needed to identify characteristics associated with COVID-19 progression and death among this population. We aimed to investigate the role of OUD and specific comorbidities on COVID-19 progression among hospitalized OUD patients.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study of merged electronic health records (EHR) from five large private health systems.

SETTING

New York City, New York, USA, 2011-21.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults with a COVID-19 encounter and OUD or opioid overdose diagnosis between March 2020 and February 2021.

MEASUREMENTS

Primary exposure included diagnosis of OUD/opioid overdose. Risk factors included age, sex, race/ethnicity and common medical, substance use and psychiatric comorbidities known to be associated with COVID-19 severity. Outcomes included COVID-19 hospitalization and subsequent intubation, acute kidney failure, severe sepsis and death.

FINDINGS

Of 110 917 COVID-19+ adults, 1.17% were ever diagnosed with OUD/opioid overdose. OUD patients had higher risk of COVID-19 hospitalization [adjusted risk ratio (aRR) = 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.33, 1.47], intubation [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.74, 2.42], kidney failure (aRR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.34, 1.70), sepsis (aRR = 2.30, 95% CI = 1.88, 2.81) and death (aRR = 2.10, 95% CI = 1.84, 2.40). Among hospitalized OUD patients, risks for worse COVID-19 outcomes included being male; older; of a race/ethnicity other than white, black or Hispanic; and having comorbid chronic kidney disease, diabetes, obesity or cancer. Protective factors included having asthma, hepatitis-C and chronic pain.

CONCLUSIONS

Opioid use disorder patients appear to have a substantial risk for COVID-19-associated morbidity and mortality, with particular comorbidities and treatments moderating this risk.

Cycles of Chronic Opioid Therapy Following Mandatory Prescription Drug Monitoring Program Legislation: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Mandates for prescriber use of prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs), databases tracking controlled substance prescriptions, are associated with reduced opioid analgesic (OA) prescribing but may contribute to care discontinuity and chronic opioid therapy (COT) cycling, or multiple initiations and terminations.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate risks of COT cycling in New York City (NYC) due to the New York State (NYS) PDMP mandate, compared to risks in neighboring New Jersey (NJ) counties.

DESIGN

We estimated cycling risk using Prentice, Williams, and Peterson gap-time models adjusted for age, sex, OA dose, payment type, and county population density, using a life-table difference-in-differences design. Failure time was duration between cycles. In a subgroup analysis, we estimated risk among patients receiving high-dose prescriptions. Sensitivity analyses tested robustness to cycle volume considering only first cycles using Cox proportional hazard models.

PARTICIPANTS

The cohort included 7604 patients dispensed 12,695 prescriptions.

INTERVENTIONS

The exposure was the August 2013 enactment of the NYS PDMP prescriber use mandate.

MAIN MEASURES

We used monthly, patient-level data on OA prescriptions dispensed in NYC and NJ between August 2011 and July 2015. We defined COT as three sequential months of prescriptions, permitting 1-month gaps. We defined recurrence as re-initiation of COT after at least 2 months without prescriptions. The exposure was enactment of the PDMP mandate in NYC; NJ was unexposed.

KEY RESULTS

Enactment of the NYS PDMP mandate was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for cycling of 1.01 (95% CI, 0.94-1.08) in NYC. For high-dose prescriptions, the risk was 1.16 (95% CI, 1.01-1.34). Sensitivity analyses estimated an overall risk of 1.01 (95% CI, 0.94-1.11) and high-dose risk of 1.09 (95% CI, 0.91-1.31).

CONCLUSIONS

The PDMP mandate had no overall effect on COT cycling in NYC but increased cycling risk among patients receiving high-dose opioid prescriptions by 16%, highlighting care discontinuity.

Divergence Between Individual- and Neighborhood-Level Fatal Overdose Burden: A Population-Based Statewide Study

OBJECTIVES

To compare the characteristics of individual overdose decedents in Rhode Island, 2016-2020 to the neighborhoods where fatal overdoses occurred over the same time period.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of fatal overdoses occurring between January 1, 2016 and June 30, 2020. Using individual- and neighborhood-level data, we conducted descriptive analyses to explore the characteristics of individuals and neighborhoods most affected by overdose.

RESULTS

Most overdose decedents during the study period were non-Hispanic White. Across increasingly more White and non-Hispanic neighborhoods, rates of fatal overdose per 100,000 person-years decreased. An opposite pattern was observed across quintiles of average neighborhood poverty.

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of fatal overdose were higher in less White, more Hispanic, and poorer neighborhoods, suggesting modest divergence between the characteristics of individuals and the neighborhoods most severely affected. These impacts may not be uniform across space and may accrue differentially to more disadvantaged and racially/ethnically diverse neighborhoods.

First Search for Exclusive Diphoton Production at High Mass with Tagged Protons in Proton-Proton Collisions at sqrt[s]=13 TeV

A search for exclusive two-photon production via photon exchange in proton-proton collisions, pp→pγγp with intact protons, is presented. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 9.4  fb^{-1} collected in 2016 using the CMS and TOTEM detectors at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the LHC. Events are selected with a diphoton invariant mass above 350 GeV and with both protons intact in the final state, to reduce backgrounds from strong interactions. The events of interest are those where the invariant mass and rapidity calculated from the momentum losses of the forward-moving protons match the mass and rapidity of the central, two-photon system. No events are found that satisfy this condition. Interpreting this result in an effective dimension-8 extension of the standard model, the first limits are set on the two anomalous four-photon coupling parameters. If the other parameter is constrained to its standard model value, the limits at 95% confidence level are |ζ_{1}|<2.9×10^{-13}  GeV^{-4} and |ζ_{2}|<6.0×10^{-13}  GeV^{-4}.

Search for low-mass dilepton resonances in Higgs boson decays to four-lepton final states in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

A search for low-mass dilepton resonances in Higgs boson decays is conducted in the four-lepton final state. The decay is assumed to proceed via a pair of beyond the standard model particles, or one such particle and a Z boson. The search uses proton-proton collision data collected with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb - 1 , at a center-of-mass energy s = 13 TeV . No significant deviation from the standard model expectation is observed. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set on model-independent Higgs boson decay branching fractions. Additionally, limits on dark photon and axion-like particle production, based on two specific models, are reported.

Preventing Overdose Using Information and Data from the Environment (PROVIDENT): protocol for a randomized, population-based, community intervention trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In light of the accelerating drug overdose epidemic in North America, new strategies are needed to identify communities most at risk to prioritize geographically the existing public health resources (e.g. street outreach, naloxone distribution efforts). We aimed to develop PROVIDENT (Preventing Overdose using Information and Data from the Environment), a machine learning-based forecasting tool to predict future overdose deaths at the census block group (i.e. neighbourhood) level.

DESIGN

Randomized, population-based, community intervention trial.

SETTING

Rhode Island, USA.

PARTICIPANTS

All people who reside in Rhode Island during the study period may contribute data to either the model or the trial outcomes.

INTERVENTION

Each of the state's 39 municipalities will be randomized to the intervention (PROVIDENT) or comparator condition. An interactive, web-based tool will be developed to visualize the PROVIDENT model predictions. Municipalities assigned to the treatment arm will receive neighbourhood risk predictions from the PROVIDENT model, and state agencies and community-based organizations will direct resources to neighbourhoods identified as high risk. Municipalities assigned to the control arm will continue to receive surveillance information and overdose prevention resources, but they will not receive neighbourhood risk predictions.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome is the municipal-level rate of fatal and non-fatal drug overdoses. Fatal overdoses will be defined as unintentional drug-related death; non-fatal overdoses will be defined as an emergency department visit for a suspected overdose reported through the state's syndromic surveillance system. Intervention efficacy will be assessed using Poisson or negative binomial regression to estimate incidence rate ratios comparing fatal and non-fatal overdose rates in treatment vs. control municipalities.

COMMENTS

The findings will inform the utility of predictive modelling as a tool to improve public health decision-making and inform resource allocation to communities that should be prioritized for prevention, treatment, recovery and overdose rescue services.

Using Z Boson Events to Study Parton-Medium Interactions in Pb-Pb Collisions

The spectra measurements of charged hadrons produced in the shower of a parton originating in the same hard scattering with a leptonically decaying Z boson are reported in lead-lead nuclei (Pb-Pb) and proton-proton (pp) collisions at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV. Both Pb-Pb and pp data sets are recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 1.7  nb^{-1} and 320  pb^{-1}, respectively. Hadronic collision data with one reconstructed Z boson candidate with the transverse momentum p_{T}>30  GeV/c are analyzed. The Z boson constrains the initial energy and direction of the associated parton. In heavy ion events, azimuthal angular distributions of charged hadrons with respect to the direction of a Z boson are sensitive to modifications of the in-medium parton shower and medium response. compared to reference data from pp interactions, the results for central Pb-Pb collisions indicate a modification of the angular correlations. The measurements of the fragmentation functions and p_{T} spectra of charged particles in Z boson events, which are sensitive to medium modifications of the parton shower longitudinal structure, are also reported. Significant modifications in central Pb-Pb events compared to the pp reference data are also found for these observables.

Primary care provider perspectives on and utilization of a mandatory prescription drug monitoring program in New York City

BACKGROUND

The ways in which prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs) have been integrated into primary care practice remain understudied, and research into physician utilization of PDMPs in states where PDMP use is mandated remains scant.

OBJECTIVES

To characterize primary care physician perspectives on and utilization of a mandatory PDMP in New York City.

METHODS

We conducted face-to-face, in-depth interviews with primary care physicians who reported that they currently prescribed opioid analgesic medication. We used a thematic analytic approach to characterize physician perspectives on the PDMP mandate and physician integration of mandatory PDMP use into primary care practice.

RESULTS

Primary care providers demonstrated a continuum of PDMP utilization, ranging from consistent use to the specifications of the mandate to inconsistent use to no use. Providers reported a range of perspectives on the purpose and function of the PDMP mandate, as well as a lack of clarity about the mandate and its enforcement.

CONCLUSION

Findings suggest a need for increased clinical and public health education about the use of PDMPs as clinical tools to identify and treat patients with potential substance use disorders in primary care.

Search for strongly interacting massive particles generating trackless jets in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

A search for dark matter in the form of strongly interacting massive particles (SIMPs) using the CMS detector at the LHC is presented. The SIMPs would be produced in pairs that manifest themselves as pairs of jets without tracks. The energy fraction of jets carried by charged particles is used as a key discriminator to suppress efficiently the large multijet background, and the remaining background is estimated directly from data. The search is performed using proton-proton collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 16.1 fb - 1 , collected with the CMS detector in 2016. No significant excess of events is observed above the expected background. For the simplified dark matter model under consideration, SIMPs with masses up to 100 GeV are excluded and further sensitivity is explored towards higher masses.

Forecasted and Observed Drug Overdose Deaths in the US During the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020

This cross-sectional study uses data from the National Vital Statistics System to compare forecasted numbers of drug overdose deaths in the US in the latter 43 weeks of 2020 with the observed number of overdose deaths in that period.

Identifying Predictors of Opioid Overdose Death at a Neighborhood Level With Machine Learning

Predictors of opioid overdose death in neighborhoods are important to identify, both to understand characteristics of high-risk areas and to prioritize limited prevention and intervention resources. Machine learning methods could serve as a valuable tool for identifying neighborhood-level predictors. We examined statewide data on opioid overdose death from Rhode Island (log-transformed rates for 2016-2019) and 203 covariates from the American Community Survey for 742 US Census block groups. The analysis included a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm followed by variable importance rankings from a random forest algorithm. We employed double cross-validation, with 10 folds in the inner loop to train the model and 4 outer folds to assess predictive performance. The ranked variables included a range of dimensions of socioeconomic status, including education, income and wealth, residential stability, race/ethnicity, social isolation, and occupational status. The R2 value of the model on testing data was 0.17. While many predictors of overdose death were in established domains (education, income, occupation), we also identified novel domains (residential stability, racial/ethnic distribution, and social isolation). Predictive modeling with machine learning can identify new neighborhood-level predictors of overdose in the continually evolving opioid epidemic and anticipate the neighborhoods at high risk of overdose mortality.

Evidence for X(3872) in Pb-Pb Collisions and Studies of its Prompt Production at sqrt[s_{NN}]=5.02 TeV

The first evidence for X(3872) production in relativistic heavy ion collisions is reported. The X(3872) production is studied in lead-lead (Pb-Pb) collisions at a center-of-mass energy of sqrt[s_{NN}]=5.02  TeV per nucleon pair, using the decay chain X(3872)→J/ψπ^{+}π^{-}→μ^{+}μ^{-}π^{+}π^{-}. The data were recorded with the CMS detector in 2018 and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 1.7  nb^{-1}. The measurement is performed in the rapidity and transverse momentum ranges |y|<1.6 and 15<p_{T}<50  GeV/c. The significance of the inclusive X(3872) signal is 4.2 standard deviations. The prompt X(3872) to ψ2S yield ratio is found to be ρ^{Pb-Pb}=1.08±0.49(stat)±0.52(syst), to be compared with typical values of 0.1 for pp collisions. This result provides a unique experimental input to theoretical models of the X(3872) production mechanism, and of the nature of this exotic state.

Impact of a Homeless Encampment Closure on Crime Complaints in the Bronx, New York City, 2017: Implications for Municipal Policy

Purpose

As part of COVID-19 control policy, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has advised local jurisdictions to permit the formation of homeless encampments to prevent community disease spread. This new federal public health guidance is in conflict with existing police policies in many jurisdictions to raze or evict homeless encampments upon discovery. However, no empirical research on homeless encampment policy actions exists.

Methods

This study utilized interrupted time series to estimate the impact of the 2017 closure of "the Hole"-a longstanding encampment of homeless people who use drugs in the Bronx, New York City-on crime complaints. Daily crime complaints originating from public spaces within 1 mile of the encampment were captured during the 30-day periods before and after closure.

Results

Closure was associated with no short-term changesin complaints [IRR=1.01; 95% CI (0.81-1.27)], with daily complaints remaining at baseline levels during the post-closure period [IRR 0.99; 95% CI (0.98-1.00)].

Discussion

Findings preliminarily suggest that the presence of a homeless encampment may not have been associated with increased levels of crime in the neighborhood where it was located. Future research is necessary to understand the health and social impacts of homeless encampments and inform municipal policymakers.

Risk prediction of major adverse cardiac events by high sensitivity troponin is modified by comorbidities

Background

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) is a well-established biomarker for the evaluation of Emergency Department (ED) patients with possible acute coronary syndrome. These patients often have comorbid conditions that may impact hs-cTn values. However, prior studies and current guidelines addressing the relationship between comorbidities and hs-cTn are limited.

Purpose

To determine whether an interaction exists between comorbidities and baseline hsTnT values on the risk of 30-day major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in a multicenter United States (US) cohort.

Methods

Adult ED patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome were prospectively enrolled in a multicenter cohort study in the US. Baseline blood samples were collected and hs-cTnT concentrations were measured at a central laboratory. Comorbid conditions, such as obesity, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, renal disease, peripheral vascular disease, prior stroke, and history of coronary interventions, were collected at time of enrollment. The primary outcome was adjudicated MACE, defined as occurrence of myocardial infarction, cardiovascular or uncertain death, or coronary revascularization within 30 days. Hs-cTnT values were dichotomized using manufacturer's limit of quantification (LOQ) at 6 ng/dL and the upper reference limit (URL) of 19 ng/dL. The utility the LOQ and URL cut-offs in predicting MACE was evaluated using logistic regression. Effect modification of comorbid conditions was independently evaluated by including an interaction term between comorbidity and hs-cTnT.

Results

Among 1460 participants with a baseline hs-cTn measurement, 46.3% (676/1460) were female and 37.1% (542/1460) were Black with a mean age of 57.6±12.9 years. The prevalence of MACE was 14.4% (210/1460). Participants with a baseline hs-cTnT below LOQ were 0.08 (95% CI: 0.04–0.16) times less likely to have MACE compared to those exceeding LOQ. Those with a baseline hs-cTnT exceeding URL were 9.5 (95% CI: 7.0–12.9) times more likely to have MACE. The presence of prior stroke significantly modified the association between baseline hs-cTnT below LOQ and risk of MACE (p=0.006). Among those with prior stroke (n=158), there was no significant association between baseline hs-cTnT below LOQ and risk of MACE (p=0.451). For the association between hs-cTnT above URL and MACE, significant negative interaction was detected by hypertension (p&lt;0.001), hyperlipidemia (p=0.002), coronary artery disease (p=0.002), percutaneous coronary intervention (p=0.001), and congestive heart failure (p=0.038) comorbidity.

Conclusion

In a diverse, multicenter, US cohort the association between baseline hs-cTnT and the risk of MACE was weakened by the presence of several comorbid conditions. This suggests that the safety of previously validated hs-cTnT diagnostic strategies may be diminished when applied to populations with a high prevalence of comorbid conditions.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): Roche Diagnostics

The New York City Prescriber Notification Program: Assessing the Feasibility of a Patient Overdose Death Notification Pilot

Opioid analgesics and benzodiazepines remain substantial contributors to unintentional drug overdose deaths in the United States. To promote judicious prescribing and improve care for patients with substance use disorders, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene piloted the Prescriber Notification Program, an educational initiative to deliver targeted public health messaging to providers who had prescribed opioid analgesics and/or benzodiazepines to patients who died from overdose in New York City. This article reports on provider responses to receipt of patient death notifications and program feasibility. Findings demonstrate that a majority of prescribers were not aware of patient deaths prior to receiving notification letters. Public health authorities considering prescriber notification systems should address barriers to implementation and sustainability-in particular, consistent and routine access to and linkage of overdose mortality and prescription monitoring data-as part of planning such programs.

Measurements of angular distance and momentum ratio distributions in three-jet and Z + two-jet final states in pp collisions

Collinear (small-angle) and large-angle, as well as soft and hard radiations are investigated in three-jet and Z  + two-jet events collected in proton-proton collisions at the LHC. The normalized production cross sections are measured as a function of the ratio of transverse momenta of two jets and their angular separation. The measurements in the three-jet and Z  + two-jet events are based on data collected at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV , corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.8 fb - 1 . The Z  + two-jet events are reconstructed in the dimuon decay channel of the Z  boson. The three-jet measurement is extended to include s = 13 TeV data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.3 fb - 1 . The results are compared to predictions from event generators that include parton showers, multiple parton interactions, and hadronization. The collinear and soft regions are in general well described by parton showers, whereas the regions of large angular separation are often best described by calculations using higher-order matrix elements.

Observation of Forward Neutron Multiplicity Dependence of Dimuon Acoplanarity in Ultraperipheral Pb-Pb Collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=5.02 TeV

The first measurement of the dependence of γγ→μ^{+}μ^{-} production on the multiplicity of neutrons emitted very close to the beam direction in ultraperipheral heavy ion collisions is reported. Data for lead-lead interactions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=5.02  TeV, with an integrated luminosity of approximately 1.5  nb^{-1}, are collected using the CMS detector at the LHC. The azimuthal correlations between the two muons in the invariant mass region 8<m_{μμ}<60  GeV are extracted for events including 0, 1, or at least 2 neutrons detected in the forward pseudorapidity range |η|>8.3. The back-to-back correlation structure from leading-order photon-photon scattering is found to be significantly broader for events with a larger number of emitted neutrons from each nucleus, corresponding to interactions with a smaller impact parameter. This observation provides a data-driven demonstration that the average transverse momentum of photons emitted from relativistic heavy ions has an impact parameter dependence. These results provide new constraints on models of photon-induced interactions in ultraperipheral collisions. They also provide a baseline to search for possible final-state effects on lepton pairs caused by traversing a quark-gluon plasma produced in hadronic heavy ion collisions.

Constraints on the Initial State of Pb-Pb Collisions via Measurements of Z-Boson Yields and Azimuthal Anisotropy at sqrt[s_{NN}]=5.02 TeV

The CMS experiment at the LHC has measured the differential cross sections of Z bosons decaying to pairs of leptons, as functions of transverse momentum and rapidity, in lead-lead collisions at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 5.02  TeV. The measured Z boson elliptic azimuthal anisotropy coefficient is compatible with zero, showing that Z bosons do not experience significant final-state interactions in the medium produced in the collision. Yields of Z bosons are compared to Glauber model predictions and are found to deviate from these expectations in peripheral collisions, indicating the presence of initial collision geometry and centrality selection effects. The precision of the measurement allows, for the first time, for a data-driven determination of the nucleon-nucleon integrated luminosity as a function of lead-lead centrality, thereby eliminating the need for its estimation based on a Glauber model.

Mental disorders and risk of COVID-19-related mortality, hospitalisation, and intensive care unit admission: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Mental disorders might be a risk factor for severe COVID-19. We aimed to assess the specific risks of COVID-19-related mortality, hospitalisation, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission associated with any pre-existing mental disorder, and specific diagnostic categories of mental disorders, and exposure to psychopharmacological drug classes.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched Web of Science, Cochrane, PubMed, and PsycINFO databases between Jan 1, 2020, and March 5, 2021, for original studies reporting data on COVID-19 outcomes in patients with psychiatric disorders compared with controls. We excluded studies with overlapping samples, studies that were not peer-reviewed, and studies written in languages other than English, Danish, Dutch, French, German, Italian, and Portuguese. We modelled random-effects meta-analyses to estimate crude odds ratios (OR) for mortality after SARS-CoV-2 infection as the primary outcome, and hospitalisation and ICU admission as secondary outcomes. We calculated adjusted ORs for available data. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I² statistic, and publication bias was tested with Egger regression and visual inspection of funnel plots. We used the GRADE approach to assess the overall strength of the evidence and the Newcastle Ottawa Scale to assess study quality. We also did subgroup analyses and meta-regressions to assess the effects of baseline COVID-19 treatment setting, patient age, country, pandemic phase, quality assessment score, sample sizes, and adjustment for confounders. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021233984.

FINDINGS

841 studies were identified by the systematic search, of which 33 studies were included in the systematic review and 23 studies in the meta-analysis, comprising 1 469 731 patients with COVID-19, of whom 43 938 had mental disorders. The sample included 130 807 females (8·9% of the whole sample) and 130 373 males (8·8%). Nine studies provided data on patient race and ethnicity, and 22 studies were rated as high quality. The presence of any mental disorder was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 mortality (OR 2·00 [95% CI 1·58-2·54]; I²=92·66%). This association was also observed for psychotic disorders (2·05 [1·37-3·06]; I²=80·81%), mood disorders (1·99 [1·46-2·71]; I²=68·32%), substance use disorders (1·76 [1·27-2·44]; I²=47·90%), and intellectual disabilities and developmental disorders (1·73 [1·29-2·31]; I²=90·15%) but not for anxiety disorders (1·07 [0·73-1·56]; I²=11·05%). COVID-19 mortality was associated with exposure to antipsychotics (3·71 [1·74-7·91]; I²=90·31%), anxiolytics (2·58 [1·22-5·44]; I²=96·42%), and antidepressants (2·23 [1·06-4·71]; I²=95·45%). For psychotic disorders, mood disorders, antipsychotics, and anxiolytics, the association remained significant after adjustment for age, sex, and other confounders. Mental disorders were associated with increased risk of hospitalisation (2·24 [1·70-2·94]; I²=88·80%). No significant associations with mortality were identified for ICU admission. Subgroup analyses and meta-regressions showed significant associations of baseline COVID-19 treatment setting (p=0·013) and country (p<0·0001) with mortality. No significant associations with mortality were identified for other covariates. No evidence of publication bias was found. GRADE assessment indicated high certainty for crude mortality and hospitalisation, and moderate certainty for crude ICU admission.

INTERPRETATION

Pre-existing mental disorders, in particular psychotic and mood disorders, and exposure to antipsychotics and anxiolytics were associated with COVID-19 mortality in both crude and adjusted models. Although further research is required to determine the underlying mechanisms, our findings highlight the need for targeted approaches to manage and prevent COVID-19 in at-risk patient groups identified in this study.

FUNDING

None.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Italian, French and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Emotion and COVID-19: Toward an Equitable Pandemic Response

This article discusses the ways in which healthcare professionals can use emotion as part of developing an ethical response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Affect theory, a growing approach to inquiry in the social sciences and humanities that appraises the historical and cultural contexts of emotions as expressed through art and politics, offers a frame for clinicians and researchers to consider ethical questions that surround the reopening of the United States economy in the wake of COVID-19. This article uses affect theory to describe how healthcare workers' emotions are useful for formulating a reopening plan grounded in collective action and a duty to do no harm.

Search for a heavy vector resonance decaying to a Z boson and a Higgs boson in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 Te

A search is presented for a heavy vector resonance decaying into a Z boson and the standard model Higgs boson, where the Z boson is identified through its leptonic decays to electrons, muons, or neutrinos, and the Higgs boson is identified through its hadronic decays. The search is performed in a Lorentz-boosted regime and is based on data collected from 2016 to 2018 at the CERN LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137fb - 1 . Upper limits are derived on the production of a narrow heavy resonanceZ ' , and a mass below 3.5 and 3.7Te is excluded at 95% confidence level in models where the heavy vector boson couples predominantly to fermions and to bosons, respectively. These are the most stringent limits placed on the Heavy Vector TripletZ ' model to date. If the heavy vector boson couples exclusively to standard model bosons, upper limits on the product of the cross section and branching fraction are set between 23 and 0.3fb for aZ ' mass between 0.8 and 4.6Te , respectively. This is the first limit set on a heavy vector boson coupling exclusively to standard model bosons in its production and decay.

MUSiC: a model-unspecific search for new physics in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

Results of the Model Unspecific Search in CMS (MUSiC), using proton-proton collision data recorded at the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV , corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb - 1 , are presented. The MUSiC analysis searches for anomalies that could be signatures of physics beyond the standard model. The analysis is based on the comparison of observed data with the standard model prediction, as determined from simulation, in several hundred final states and multiple kinematic distributions. Events containing at least one electron or muon are classified based on their final state topology, and an automated search algorithm surveys the observed data for deviations from the prediction. The sensitivity of the search is validated using multiple methods. No significant deviations from the predictions have been observed. For a wide range of final state topologies, agreement is found between the data and the standard model simulation. This analysis complements dedicated search analyses by significantly expanding the range of final states covered using a model independent approach with the largest data set to date to probe phase space regions beyond the reach of previous general searches.

Thick trust, thin trust, social capital, and health outcomes among trans women of color in New York City

Introduction: Many trans women of color communities experience high HIV seroprevalence, extreme poverty, high rates of victimization and substance use, and poor mental health. Greater knowledge of trans women of color social capital may contribute toward more effective services for this marginalized population. Methods: These data come from a mixed-methods study that examined trans/gender-variant people of color who attended transgender support groups at harm reduction programs in NYC. The study was conducted from 2011 to 12, total N = 34. The qualitative portion was derived from six focus group interviews. Results: Two support groups stood out as exhibiting very strong alternative kinship structures. One group was comprised of immigrant trans Latinas, and the other group were trans women of African descent living with HIV. Both groups demonstrated ample cultivation of "trust capital" in the form of "thick trust" (bonding capital) and "thin trust" (bridging/linking capital) both inside and outside/beyond the support groups. Thick trust included the cultivation of intimacy, support in primary romantic relationships, and community leadership. Thin trust included networking with a variety of organizations, increased educational opportunities, and cultural production. Discussion: Participants "opened up to social capital" through the process of trusting as a series of (1) risks; (2) vulnerabilities; and (3) reciprocities. A solid foundation of thick trust resulted in a social, psychological, and emotional "base." Upon this foundation, thin trust was operationalized resulting in positive material, economic, and quality-of-life outcomes, leading to an expanded space of capabilities.

Measurement of the Higgs boson production rate in association with top quarks in final states with electrons, muons, and hadronically decaying tau leptons at s = 13 TeV

The rate for Higgs ( H ) bosons production in association with either one ( t H ) or two ( t t ¯ H ) top quarks is measured in final states containing multiple electrons, muons, or tau leptons decaying to hadrons and a neutrino, using proton-proton collisions recorded at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV by the CMS experiment. The analyzed data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 137fb - 1 . The analysis is aimed at events that contain H → W W , H → τ τ , or H → Z Z decays and each of the top quark(s) decays either to lepton+jets or all-jet channels. Sensitivity to signal is maximized by including ten signatures in the analysis, depending on the lepton multiplicity. The separation among t H , t t ¯ H , and the backgrounds is enhanced through machine-learning techniques and matrix-element methods. The measured production rates for the t t ¯ H and t H signals correspond to 0.92 ± 0.19 (stat) - 0.13 + 0.17 (syst) and 5.7 ± 2.7 (stat) ± 3.0 (syst) of their respective standard model (SM) expectations. The corresponding observed (expected) significance amounts to 4.7 (5.2) standard deviations for t t ¯ H , and to 1.4 (0.3) for t H production. Assuming that the Higgs boson coupling to the tau lepton is equal in strength to its expectation in the SM, the coupling y t of the Higgs boson to the top quark divided by its SM expectation,κ t = y t / y t SM , is constrained to be within - 0.9 < κ t < - 0.7 or 0.7 < κ t < 1.1 , at 95% confidence level. This result is the most sensitive measurement of the t t ¯ H production rate to date.

Development and validation of HERWIG 7 tunes from CMS underlying-event measurements

This paper presents new sets of parameters ("tunes") for the underlying-event model of the H E R W I G 7 event generator. These parameters control the description of multiple-parton interactions (MPI) and colour reconnection in H E R W I G 7 , and are obtained from a fit to minimum-bias data collected by the CMS experiment at s = 0.9 , 7, and 13 Te . The tunes are based on the NNPDF 3.1 next-to-next-to-leading-order parton distribution function (PDF) set for the parton shower, and either a leading-order or next-to-next-to-leading-order PDF set for the simulation of MPI and the beam remnants. Predictions utilizing the tunes are produced for event shape observables in electron-positron collisions, and for minimum-bias, inclusive jet, top quark pair, and Z and W boson events in proton-proton collisions, and are compared with data. Each of the new tunes describes the data at a reasonable level, and the tunes using a leading-order PDF for the simulation of MPI provide the best description of the data.

Measurements of p p → Z Z production cross sections and constraints on anomalous triple gauge couplings at s = 13 TeV

The production of Z boson pairs in proton-proton ( p p ) collisions, p p → ( Z / γ ∗ ) ( Z / γ ∗ ) → 2 ℓ 2 ℓ ' , where ℓ , ℓ ' = e or μ , is studied at a center-of-mass energy of 13TeV with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 137fb - 1 , collected during 2016-2018. The Z Z production cross section,σ tot ( p p → Z Z ) = 17.4 ± 0.3 (stat) ± 0.5 (syst) ± 0.4 (theo) ± 0.3 (lumi) pb , measured for events with two pairs of opposite-sign, same-flavor leptons produced in the mass region 60 < m ℓ + ℓ - < 120 GeV is consistent with standard model predictions. Differential cross sections are also measured and agree with theoretical predictions. The invariant mass distribution of the four-lepton system is used to set limits on anomalous Z Z Z and Z Z γ couplings.

Search for dark matter produced in association with a leptonically decaying Z boson in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 Te

A search for dark matter particles is performed using events with a Z boson candidate and large missing transverse momentum. The analysis is based on proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13Te , collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2016-2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137fb - 1 . The search uses the decay channels Z → e e and Z → μ μ . No significant excess of events is observed over the background expected from the standard model. Limits are set on dark matter particle production in the context of simplified models with vector, axial-vector, scalar, and pseudoscalar mediators, as well as on a two-Higgs-doublet model with an additional pseudoscalar mediator. In addition, limits are provided for spin-dependent and spin-independent scattering cross sections and are compared to those from direct-detection experiments. The results are also interpreted in the context of models of invisible Higgs boson decays, unparticles, and large extra dimensions.

Search for dark matter produced in association with a leptonically decaying Z boson in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 Te

A search for dark matter particles is performed using events with a Z boson candidate and large missing transverse momentum. The analysis is based on proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13Te , collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2016-2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137fb - 1 . The search uses the decay channels Z → e e and Z → μ μ . No significant excess of events is observed over the background expected from the standard model. Limits are set on dark matter particle production in the context of simplified models with vector, axial-vector, scalar, and pseudoscalar mediators, as well as on a two-Higgs-doublet model with an additional pseudoscalar mediator. In addition, limits are provided for spin-dependent and spin-independent scattering cross sections and are compared to those from direct-detection experiments. The results are also interpreted in the context of models of invisible Higgs boson decays, unparticles, and large extra dimensions.

Search for top squark pair production using dilepton final states in pp collision data collected at s = 13 TeV

A search is presented for supersymmetric partners of the top quark (top squarks) in final states with two oppositely charged leptons (electrons or muons), jets identified as originating from b quarks, and missing transverse momentum. The search uses data from proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV collected with the CMS detector, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb - 1 . Hypothetical signal events are efficiently separated from the dominant top quark pair production background with requirements on the significance of the missing transverse momentum and on transverse mass variables. No significant deviation is observed from the expected background. Exclusion limits are set in the context of simplified supersymmetric models with pair-produced lightest top squarks. For top squarks decaying exclusively to a top quark and a lightest neutralino, lower limits are placed at 95 % confidence level on the masses of the top squark and the neutralino up to 925 and 450 GeV , respectively. If the decay proceeds via an intermediate chargino, the corresponding lower limits on the mass of the lightest top squark are set up to 850 GeV for neutralino masses below 420 GeV . For top squarks undergoing a cascade decay through charginos and sleptons, the mass limits reach up to 1.4 TeV and 900 GeV respectively for the top squark and the lightest neutralino.

Association of substance use disorders and drug overdose with adverse COVID-19 outcomes in New York City: January-October 2020

Background

Evidence suggests that individuals with history of substance use disorder (SUD) are at increased risk of COVID-19, but little is known about relationships between SUDs, overdose and COVID-19 severity and mortality. This study investigated risks of severe COVID-19 among patients with SUDs.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective review of data from a hospital system in New York City. Patient records from 1 January to 26 October 2020 were included. We assessed positive COVID-19 tests, hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and death. Descriptive statistics and bivariable analyses compared the prevalence of COVID-19 by baseline characteristics. Logistic regression estimated unadjusted and sex-, age-, race- and comorbidity-adjusted odds ratios (AORs) for associations between SUD history, overdose history and outcomes.

Results

Of patients tested for COVID-19 (n = 188 653), 2.7% (n = 5107) had any history of SUD. Associations with hospitalization [AORs (95% confidence interval)] ranged from 1.78 (0.85–3.74) for cocaine use disorder (COUD) to 6.68 (4.33–10.33) for alcohol use disorder. Associations with ICU admission ranged from 0.57 (0.17–1.93) for COUD to 5.00 (3.02–8.30) for overdose. Associations with death ranged from 0.64 (0.14–2.84) for COUD to 3.03 (1.70–5.43) for overdose.

Discussion

Patients with histories of SUD and drug overdose may be at elevated risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes.

Measurement of single-diffractive dijet production in proton-proton collisions at s = 8 Te with the CMS and TOTEM experiments

Measurements are presented of the single-diffractive dijet cross section and the diffractive cross section as a function of the proton fractional momentum loss ξ and the four-momentum transfer squared t. Both processesp p → p X andp p → X p , i.e. with the proton scattering to either side of the interaction point, are measured, whereX includes at least two jets; the results of the two processes are averaged. The analyses are based on data collected simultaneously with the CMS and TOTEM detectors at the LHC in proton-proton collisions ats = 8 Te during a dedicated run withβ ∗ = 90 m at low instantaneous luminosity and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 37.5 nb - 1 . The single-diffractive dijet cross section σ jj p X , in the kinematic region ξ < 0.1 ,0.03 < | t | < 1 Ge 2 , with at least two jets with transverse momentump T > 40 Ge , and pseudorapidity | η | < 4.4 , is 21.7 ± 0.9 (stat) - 3.3 + 3.0 (syst) ± 0.9 (lumi) nb . The ratio of the single-diffractive to inclusive dijet yields, normalised per unit of ξ , is presented as a function of x, the longitudinal momentum fraction of the proton carried by the struck parton. The ratio in the kinematic region defined above, for x values in the range - 2.9 ≤ log 10 x ≤ - 1.6 , is R = ( σ jj p X / Δ ξ ) / σ jj = 0.025 ± 0.001 (stat) ± 0.003 (syst) , where σ jj p X and σ jj are the single-diffractive and inclusive dijet cross sections, respectively. The results are compared with predictions from models of diffractive and nondiffractive interactions. Monte Carlo predictions based on the HERA diffractive parton distribution functions agree well with the data when corrected for the effect of soft rescattering between the spectator partons.

Measurement of single-diffractive dijet production in proton-proton collisions at s = 8 Te with the CMS and TOTEM experiments

Measurements are presented of the single-diffractive dijet cross section and the diffractive cross section as a function of the proton fractional momentum loss ξ and the four-momentum transfer squared t. Both processes p p → p X and p p → X p , i.e. with the proton scattering to either side of the interaction point, are measured, where X includes at least two jets; the results of the two processes are averaged. The analyses are based on data collected simultaneously with the CMS and TOTEM detectors at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at s = 8 Te during a dedicated run with β ∗ = 90 m at low instantaneous luminosity and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 37.5 nb - 1 . The single-diffractive dijet cross section σ jj p X , in the kinematic region ξ < 0.1 , 0.03 < | t | < 1 Ge 2 , with at least two jets with transverse momentum p T > 40 Ge , and pseudorapidity | η | < 4.4 , is 21.7 ± 0.9 (stat) - 3.3 + 3.0 (syst) ± 0.9 (lumi) nb . The ratio of the single-diffractive to inclusive dijet yields, normalised per unit of ξ , is presented as a function of x, the longitudinal momentum fraction of the proton carried by the struck parton. The ratio in the kinematic region defined above, for x values in the range - 2.9 ≤ log 10 x ≤ - 1.6 , is R = ( σ jj p X / Δ ξ ) / σ jj = 0.025 ± 0.001 (stat) ± 0.003 (syst) , where σ jj p X and σ jj are the single-diffractive and inclusive dijet cross sections, respectively. The results are compared with predictions from models of diffractive and nondiffractive interactions. Monte Carlo predictions based on the HERA diffractive parton distribution functions agree well with the data when corrected for the effect of soft rescattering between the spectator partons.

Evidence for Top Quark Production in Nucleus-Nucleus Collisions

Ultrarelativistic heavy ion collisions recreate in the laboratory the thermodynamical conditions prevailing in the early universe up to 10^{-6}  sec, thereby allowing the study of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP), a state of quantum chromodynamics (QCD) matter with deconfined partons. The top quark, the heaviest elementary particle known, is accessible in nucleus-nucleus collisions at the CERN LHC, and constitutes a novel probe of the QGP. Here, we report the first evidence for the production of top quarks in nucleus-nucleus collisions, using lead-lead collision data at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV recorded by the CMS experiment. Two methods are used to measure the cross section for top quark pair production (σ_{tt[over ¯]}) via the selection of charged leptons (electrons or muons) and bottom quarks. One method relies on the leptonic information alone, and the second one exploits, in addition, the presence of bottom quarks. The measured cross sections, σ_{tt[over ¯]}=2.54_{-0.74}^{+0.84} and 2.03_{-0.64}^{+0.71}  μb, respectively, are compatible with expectations from scaled proton-proton data and QCD predictions.

Evaluation of European Society of Cardiology (ESC) 0/1-hour algorithm in the diagnosis of 90-day major adverse cardiovascular events: a multicenter United States cohort study

Background

The ESC 0/1-hour algorithm using high sensitivity troponin (ESC 0/1-h) is a rapid triage protocol for diagnosing acute coronary syndrome, however the classification performance of the algorithm in the US population is uncertain. Further, evidence for the use of ESC 0/1-h in the long-term diagnosis of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) remains limited.

Purpose

To evaluate the performance of the ESC 0/1-h algorithm in diagnosing 90-day MACE in a diverse US cohort.

Methods

In this prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study, adult emergency department patients who were evaluated for suspected ACS were enrolled at eight sites in the US. Serial 1-hour blood samples were collected and high sensitivity troponin T (hs-cTnT) concentrations were measured in a central laboratory using the hs-cTnT assay. Primary outcome included major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) within 90 (+30) days of enrollment. MACE defined as myocardial infarction (MI), cardiovascular or uncertain death, and coronary revascularization. Presence of MI and cardiovascular death were adjudicated by independent reviewers blinded to hs-cTnT results. Each participant was stratified to one of three risk groups as determined by ESC 0/1-h algorithm. Diagnostic classification performance metrics with exact confidence intervals (i.e. negative predictive value [NPV], positive predicted value [PPV], sensitivity, and specificity) were evaluated for each risk group where appropriate.

Results

Among 1430 eligible participants, 45.8% (655/1430) were women and 36.6% (524/1430) were African American with a mean age of 57.6±12.8 years. MACE at 90-days occurred in 15.5% (221/1430). ESC 0/1-h stratified 59.5% (851/1430) subjects in Rule-Out range and 13.0% (186/1430) subjects in Rule-In range. The Rule-Out criteria had an NPV and sensitivity for 90-day MACE of 96.8% (95% CI: 95.4–97.9%) and 87.8% (95% CI: 82.7–91.8%), respectively. For 90-day cardiovascular death or MI, Rule-Out criteria had an NPV of 98.2% (95% CI: 97.1–99.0%) and sensitivity was 92.4% (95% CI: 87.8–95.7%). The Rule-In criteria had a PPV of 60.8% (95% CI: 53.3–67.8%) for both outcomes. Rule-In criteria had a specificity for 90-day MACE and 90-day cardiovascular death or MI of 94.0% (95% CI: 92.5–95.2%) and 94.1% (95% CI: 92.6–95.3%), respectively. Among the 27.5% (393/1430) participants classified in neither risk groups, the prevalence of 90-day MACE was 20.6% (81/393) and the prevalence of 90-day cardiovascular death or MI was 17.8% (70/393)

Conclusion

In a prospective, multicenter, US cohort, the ESC 0/1-h algorithm was unable to achieve a sufficiently high NPV to safely exclude the diagnosis of MACE within 90 days after emergency department presentation. New hs-cTn algorithms specific to the US population may be warranted.

ESC 0/1-h 90 Day Outcomes

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Private company. Main funding source(s): Roche Diagnostics