Population pharmacokinetics of molnupiravir in adults with COVID-19: Lack of clinically important exposure variation across individuals

Effective antiviral treatments for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are needed to reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, particularly in patients with risk factors for severe disease. Molnupiravir (MK-4482, EIDD-2801) is an orally administered, ribonucleoside prodrug of β-D-N4-hydroxycytidine (NHC) with submicromolar potency against SARS-CoV-2. A population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) analysis for molnupiravir exposure was conducted using 4202 NHC plasma concentrations collected in 1207 individuals from a phase I trial in healthy participants, a phase IIa trial in non-hospitalized participants with COVID-19, a phase II trial in hospitalized participants with COVID-19, and a phase II/III trial in non-hospitalized participants with COVID-19. Molnupiravir pharmacokinetics (PK) was best described by a two-compartment model with a transit-compartment absorption model and linear elimination. Molnupiravir apparent elimination clearance increased with body weight less-than-proportionally (power 0.412) and was estimated as 70.6 L/h in 80-kg individuals with a moderate interindividual variability (43.4% coefficient of variation). Additionally, effects of sex and body mass index on apparent central volume and food status and formulation on the absorption mean transit time were identified as statistically significant descriptors of variability in these PK parameters. However, none of the identified covariate effects caused clinically relevant changes in the area under the NHC concentration versus time curve between doses, the exposure metric most closely related to clinical response. Overall, the PopPK model indicates that molnupiravir can be administered in adults without dose adjustment based on age, sex, body size, food, and mild-to-moderate renal or mild hepatic impairment.

Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

No effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions exist for patients with long COVID. We aimed to describe recovery 1 year after hospital discharge for COVID-19, identify factors associated with patient-perceived recovery, and identify potential therapeutic targets by describing the underlying inflammatory profiles of the previously described recovery clusters at 5 months after hospital discharge.

METHODS

The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study recruiting adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient-reported outcome measures, physical performance, and organ function at 5 months and 1 year after hospital discharge, and stratified by both patient-perceived recovery and recovery cluster. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at 1 year. Cluster analysis was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at 5 months. Inflammatory protein profiling was analysed from plasma at the 5-month visit. This study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN10980107, and recruitment is ongoing.

FINDINGS

2320 participants discharged from hospital between March 7, 2020, and April 18, 2021, were assessed at 5 months after discharge and 807 (32·7%) participants completed both the 5-month and 1-year visits. 279 (35·6%) of these 807 patients were women and 505 (64·4%) were men, with a mean age of 58·7 (SD 12·5) years, and 224 (27·8%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation (WHO class 7-9). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between 5 months (501 [25·5%] of 1965) and 1 year (232 [28·9%] of 804). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at 1 year were female sex (odds ratio 0·68 [95% CI 0·46-0·99]), obesity (0·50 [0·34-0·74]) and invasive mechanical ventilation (0·42 [0·23-0·76]). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate with cognitive impairment, and mild, relating to the severity of physical health, mental health, and cognitive impairment at 5 months. We found increased inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate with cognitive impairment clusters compared with the mild cluster, including IL-6 concentration, which was increased in both comparisons (n=626 participants). We found a substantial deficit in median EQ-5D-5L utility index from before COVID-19 (retrospective assessment; 0·88 [IQR 0·74-1·00]), at 5 months (0·74 [0·64-0·88]) to 1 year (0·75 [0·62-0·88]), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at 1 year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters.

INTERPRETATION

The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 were substantial 1 year after discharge across a range of health domains, with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient-perceived health-related quality of life was reduced at 1 year compared with before hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

The effect of epidermal growth factor on performance and oxidative stress in piglets challenged with enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli K88

This study evaluated the efficacy of epidermal growth factor (EGF) in piglets challenged with enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli K88 (ETEC). A total of 28 piglets were assigned to the following dietary treatments for 14 d: negative control (NC) (basal diet containing supernatant without EGF), PC (NC + 2.5 g antibiotic·kg−1 feed), EGF120 [basal diet + supernatant with 120 μg EGF·kg−1 body weight (BW)·d−1], and EGF180 (basal diet + supernatant with 180 μg EGF·kg−1 BW·d−1). After a 6 d acclimation period, each pig was gavaged with 6 mL (2.4 × 1013 cfu·mL−1) of ETEC on the morning of day 7. Overall, piglets fed the EGF and PC diets tended to have higher gain to feed ratio than those fed the NC diet (P = 0.063). Pigs fed EGF diets had lower rectal temperature than those fed the NC diet at 6 h after challenge (P < 0.05). Serum and ileal malondialdehyde concentrations were higher in piglets fed the NC diet compared with those fed EGF and PC diets on days 6 and 7 after challenge, respectively (P < 0.05). In conclusion, EGF has the potential to reduce oxidative stress and body temperature elevation in piglets exposed to ETEC while supporting better feed efficiency.

Effects of a matrix-coated organic acids and medium-chain fatty acids blend on performance, and in vitro fecal noxious gas emissions in growing pigs fed in-feed antibiotic-free diets

This study evaluated the efficacy of a matrix-coated organic acids and medium-chain fatty acids blend (MCOFA) in growing pigs. Ninety six pigs [(Yorkshire × Landrace) × Duroc] with an average body weight (BW) of 47.71 ± 3.73 kg were used in a 6 wk experiment. Pigs were allotted to diets containing 0 or 2 g kg−1 of MCOFA, and 0 or 2.5 g kg−1 of antibiotic growth promoters (AGP) according to a 2 × 2 factorial arrangement of treatments. Pigs fed diets supplemented with MCOFA had improved growth efficiency compared with those fed a diet without MCOFA (P < 0.05). Pigs receiving the diets supplemented with both AGP and MCOFA had higher apparent total tract digestibility of crude protein, dry matter, fat, and gross energy (P < 0.05). Pigs fed AGP × MCOFA diet had increased serum urea nitrogen (P < 0.05). Pigs fed diets supplemented with AGP had reduced fecal ammonia (NH3) gas emissions compared with those fed without AGP (P < 0.05). Moreover, pigs fed diets supplemented with MCOFA had reduced fecal NH3 and acetic acid gas emissions compared with those fed without MCOFA (P < 0.05). In conclusion, dietary supplementation with MCOFA improved performance in growing pigs.

Coronary Angiography Findings and Its Determinants in Patients Presenting With Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Descriptive Analysis from Asian Population

The aim was to study the angiographic profile in patients presented as acute coronary syndrome and its relation with risk factors and comparison between genders. This prospective observational study was performed on total 352 patients of acute coronary syndrome were analyzed for various risk factors, angiographic pattern in Jawaharlal Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education and Research (JIPMER), Puducherry, South India from January 2015 to July 2016. Mean age of presentation was 52.62±11.63 years. Male were 271(77.0%) and female were 81(23.0%). Majority of patients were STEMI (67.6%) followed by UA (24.4%) and NSTEMI (8%). Smoker was 117(33.3%) patients. Hypertensive were 124(35.2%) of patients and 149(42.3%) were diabetics. Family history of CAD was positive in 45(12.8%). On angiographic evaluation left main reference diameter was lower in females (4.02±0.72) than males (4.07±0.82). LAD was most commonly involved followed by RCA and LCX among all three group of acute coronary syndrome. Left main was least involved (8.3%). In STEMI SVD (40.3%) was most common presentation, after that DVD was seen in 22.3%, TVD in 10.5%, non-obstructive coronary was seen in 16% of patients and normal coronary was seen in 11% of patients. In UA 28%, 22.8%, 13.2%, 15.8%, 20.2% was seen in SVD, DVD, TVD, non-obstructive and normal coronary respectively. Long length coronary lesions (>20mm) were seen in majority in all type of acute coronary syndrome. Coronary lesion length was not associated with presentation acute coronary syndrome and genders. Male were most commonly presented as acute coronary syndrome. STEMI was most common presentation. Diabetic was most prevalent risk factor. SVD was most common angiographic pattern and LAD was most common involved arteries.

Key performance indicators for the assessment of pediatric pharmacotherapeutic guidance

Given the paucity of actual guidance provided for managing pediatric drug therapy, prescribing caregivers must be able to draw on the limited published information in pediatrics and/or guidance provided in adults with some account for expected pediatric response. Guidance for managing drug therapy in children is clearly desirable. Our objectives were to construct key performance indicators (KPIs) for pediatric pharmacotherapy guidance to identify drugs where pharmacotherapy guidance would be most beneficial. A pilot survey to assess variation in caregiver appreciation for pediatric dosing guidance has also been constructed to provide a complementary subjective assessment. Three KPI categories, drug utilization (based on hospital admission and billing data collected from 2001 through 2006), medical need, and guidance outcome value along with a KPI composite score have been proposed. Low scores are favored with respect to prioritization for pharmacotherapy guidance. The pilot survey consisted of 15 questions to assess 1) physician knowledge regarding dosing guidance, 2) attitudes toward dose modification and patient individualization, 3) the accessibility, ease of use and appropriateness of existing data stores, and 4) frequency of dosing modification, consultation of dosing compendiums and estimate of success rate in dosing guidance. Pilot results suggest that dosing guidance is generally viewed as important and that the existing resources are insufficient to guide recommendations for all drugs. While the majority of respondents check more than one resource less than 25% of the time, at least 25% of the respondents check more than one resource 25-50% of the time. The majority viewed the relevance of dosing guidance very important to the management of drug therapy. The questionnaire is being extended to the primary care centers, the Kids First Network and specialty care centers. Results will guide the development of decision support systems (DSS) that provide patient-specific pharmacotherapy guidance as part of our pediatric knowledgebase initiative. For the top 25 most utilized agents at our institution over the last 6 years, KPI score ranged from 35 (dexamethasone) to 77 (cefazolin and ampicillin) with an average score of 55. Prototype DSS for tacrolimus and methotrexate are strongly supported by the KPI scoring which ranks their selection in the top 5% of drugs on formulary. KPI metrics provide an objective means of ranking agents for which pediatric pharmacotherapeutic guidance is clearly needed.

A SAS-based solution to evaluate study design efficiency of phase I pediatric oncology trials via discrete event simulation

Previous exploration of oncology study design efficiency has focused on Markov processes alone (probability-based events) without consideration for time dependencies. Barriers to study completion include time delays associated with patient accrual, inevaluability (IE), time to dose limiting toxicities (DLT) and administrative and review time. Discrete event simulation (DES) can incorporate probability-based assignment of DLT and IE frequency, correlated with cohort in the case of DLT, with time-based events defined by stochastic relationships. A SAS-based solution to examine study efficiency metrics and evaluate design modifications that would improve study efficiency is presented. Virtual patients are simulated with attributes defined from prior distributions of relevant patient characteristics. Study population datasets are read into SAS macros which select patients and enroll them into a study based on the specific design criteria if the study is open to enrollment. Waiting times, arrival times and time to study events are also sampled from prior distributions; post-processing of study simulations is provided within the decision macros and compared across designs in a separate post-processing algorithm. This solution is examined via comparison of the standard 3+3 decision rule relative to the "rolling 6" design, a newly proposed enrollment strategy for the phase I pediatric oncology setting.

Shortening the timeline of pediatric phase I trials: the rolling six design

PURPOSE

To shorten the study conduct timeline of pediatric phase I oncology trials by employing a novel trial design.

METHODS

A comparison of the traditional 3 + 3 patients per cohort, phase I trial design with a novel, rolling six design was performed by using discrete event simulation. The rolling six design allows for accrual of two to six patients concurrently onto a dose level based on the number of patients currently enrolled and evaluable, the number experiencing dose-limiting toxicity (DLT), and the number still at risk of developing a DLT. Clinical trial simulations (n = 1,000) were based on historical data and were performed using SAS 9.1.3 (SAS Institute, Cary, NC). Study timelines and patient numbers were determined for each design, and safety was assessed as a function of the number of DLTs observed.

RESULTS

In twelve completed historical studies, the median time to study completion was 452 days (range, 220 to 606 days); number of evaluable participants enrolled was 22 (range, 11 to 33), and DLTs occurring per study was three (range, 0 to 5). In 1,000 study simulations, in which the average time to new patient accrual was 10 days, the average +/- standard deviation (SD) time to study completion was 294 +/- 75 days for the rolling six design versus 350 +/- 84 days for the 3 + 3 design, whereas the number of DLTs per study was the same (average +/- SD, 3.3 +/- 1.1 v 3.2 +/- 1.1 for the rolling six and 3 + 3 designs, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The rolling six design may significantly decrease the duration of pediatric phase I studies without increasing the risk of toxicity. The design will be tested prospectively in upcoming Children's Oncology Group phase I trials.

An informatics approach to assess pediatric pharmacotherapy: design and implementation of a hospital drug utilization system

Drug utilization in the inpatient setting can provide a mechanism to assess drug prescribing trends, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness of hospital formularies and examine subpopulations for which prescribing habits may be different. Such data can be used to correlate trends with time-dependent or seasonal changes in clinical event rates or the introduction of new pharmaceuticals. It is now possible to provide a robust, dynamic analysis of drug utilization in a large pediatric inpatient setting through the creation of a Web-based hospital drug utilization system that retrieves source data from our accounting database. The production implementation provides a dynamic and historical account of drug utilization at the authors' institution. The existing application can easily be extended to accommodate a multi-institution environment. The creation of a national or even global drug utilization network would facilitate the examination of geographical and/or socioeconomic influences in drug utilization and prescribing practices in general.

A clinical trial simulation study of a new pediatric phase I trial methodology: The rolling six design

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Background: Phase I cancer trials have traditionally used the 3+3 study design in which cohorts of three patients at a time are enrolled. The study is suspended to accrual with every 3rd patient, and again suspended to replace inevaluable patients. As the pediatric phase I starting dose is based on adult phase I safety data, we hypothesized that pediatric study timelines could be shortened without increasing risk using a novel rolling six design, in which up to 6 patients are concurrently enrolled per dose level. Methods: A trial simulation approach comparing the standard 3+3 design to the rolling six design was performed. Discrete time events (accrual/enrollment, evaluation and/or time to dose limiting toxicity (DLT) or inevaluability) with outcome probabilities (DLT/inevaluability) assigned to each subject based on historical data from phase I pediatric oncology trials. The probability of DLT was a function of dose level and varied distributions were used to assign discrete time elements. Metrics for study efficiency (time to complete study, total number of patients required) were determined for each design. Simulated trials and decision rule logic were coded using PC/Windows SAS v9.1. Results: The rolling six design outperformed the 3+3 design for the most relevant metrics. Average (±SD) time to study completion was 373±90 days vs. 431±98 days and the total number of patients required was 20±5 vs. 17±4 for the rolling six vs. 3+3 designs, respectively. There was no difference in the number of DLTs per study (3±1) between designs. Conclusions: The rolling six design is predicted to shorten pediatric phase 1 study timelines and will be tested prospectively in upcoming COG phase I trials.

No significant financial relationships to disclose.

Toward an Integration of Agent- and Activity-Centric Approaches in Organizational Process Modeling: Incorporating Incentive Mechanisms

This paper presents an approach to organizational modeling that combines both agent-centric and activity-centric approaches. Activity-centric approaches to process modeling capture the mechanistic components of a process (including aspects of workflow, decision, and information), but agent-centric approaches capture specific aspects of the human component. In this paper, we explore an integrative viewpoint in which the transactional aspects of agent-centric concerns—for example, economic incentives for agents to perform—are integrated with decision and informational aspects of a process. To illustrate issues in this approach, we focus on modeling incentive mechanisms in a specific sales process and present results from an extensive simulation experiment. Our results highlight the importance of considering the effects of incentives when decision and informational aspects of a process undergo changes.