Performance and validation of the Healthy Heart Score model for predicting 12-year cardiovascular mortality in a nationwide Mediterranean population

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

The Healthy Heart Score (HHS) is a lifestyle-based equation for predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and may serve as a tool in primordial prevention. However, its performance outside North American populations is unknown. This study assessed the performance of the HHS for estimating CVD mortality in the adult population of Spain.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the ENRICA cohort, comprising 10 228 participants free of chronic disease and representative of the Spanish population aged ≥ 18-years, who were recruited from 2008 to 2010 and were followed up to 2020. The HHS includes body mass index, alcohol, physical activity, smoking, and a 5-component dietary score. The HHS was calculated at baseline using the sex-specific beta coefficients from the original development cohorts. Model discrimination was assessed using the Harrell c-statistic and Gonen-Heller c-statistic for survival data, and calibration was evaluated through calibration plots.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 11.8 years, 110 CVD deaths were ascertained. The discrimination of the HHS was similar for women (Harrell c, 0.91; 95%CI, 0.87-0.95; Gonen-Heller-c, 0.85; 95%CI, 0.83-0.88) and men (Harrell c, 0.91; 95%CI, 0.88-0.94; Gonen-Heller c: 0.85; 95%CI, 0.83-0.88). After recalibration by the sex-specific baseline survival function, the calibration became optimal for: a) all deciles of predicted CVD risk except the highest decile, where HHS underestimated the risk, and b) all age groups except 70 years and older, where there was an underestimation.

CONCLUSIONS

In this Spanish cohort, the HHS showed good discrimination and calibration for predicting CVD death. The performance of HHS in other European populations and its implementation in the clinical setting warrants further investigation.

Sample size requirement in trials that use the composite endpoint major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE): new insights

BACKGROUND

The real impact of the degree of association (DoA) between endpoint components of a composite endpoint (CE) on sample size requirement (SSR) has not been explored. We estimate the impact of the DoA between death and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) on SSR of trials using use the CE of major adverse cardiac events (MACE).

METHODS

A systematic review and quantitative synthesis of trials that include MACE as the primary outcome through search strategies in MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases. We limited to articles published in journals indexed in the first quartile of the Cardiac & Cardiovascular Systems category (Journal Citation Reports, 2015-2020). The authors were contacted to estimate the DoA between death and AMI using joint probability and correlation. We analyzed the SSR variation using the DoA estimated from RCTs.

RESULTS

Sixty-three of 134 publications that reported event rates and the therapy effect in all component endpoints were included in the quantitative synthesis. The most frequent combination was death, AMI, and revascularization (n = 20; 31.8%). The correlation between death and AMI, estimated from 5 trials¸ oscillated between - 0.02 and 0.31. SSR varied from 14,602 in the scenario with the strongest correlation to 12,259 in the scenario with the weakest correlation; the relative impact was 16%.

CONCLUSIONS

The DoA between death and AMI is highly variable and may lead to a considerable SSR variation in a trial including MACE.

Prognostic assessment of valvular surgery in active infective endocarditis: multicentric nationwide validation of a new score developed from a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Several risk prediction models have been developed to estimate the risk of mortality after valve surgery for active infective endocarditis (IE), but few external validations have been conducted to assess their accuracy. We previously developed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the impact of IE-specific factors for the in-hospital mortality rate after IE valve surgery, whose obtained pooled estimations were the basis for the development of a new score (APORTEI). The aim of the present study was to assess its prognostic accuracy in a nationwide cohort.

METHODS

We analysed the prognostic utility of the APORTEI score using patient-level data from a multicentric national cohort. Patients who underwent surgery for active IE between 2008 and 2018 were included. Discrimination was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and the calibration was assessed using the calibration slope and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Agreement between the APORTEI and the EuroSCORE I was also analysed by Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), the Bland-Altman agreement analysis and a scatterplot graph.

RESULTS

The 11 variables that comprised the APORTEI score were analysed in the sample. The APORTEI score was calculated in 1338 patients. The overall observed surgical mortality rate was 25.56%. The score demonstrated adequate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.75; 95% confidence interval 0.72-0.77) and calibration (calibration slope = 1.03; Hosmer-Lemeshow test P = 0.389). We found a lack of agreement between the APORTEI and EuroSCORE I (concordance correlation coefficient = 0.55).

CONCLUSIONS

The APORTEI score, developed from a systematic review and meta-analysis, showed an adequate estimation of the risk of mortality after IE valve surgery in a nationwide cohort.

Effects of first-line antiretroviral therapy on the CD4/CD8 ratio and CD8 cell counts in CoRIS: a prospective multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

A low CD4/CD8 ratio during antiretroviral therapy (ART) identifies people with heightened immunosenescence and increased risk of mortality. We aimed to assess the effects of integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-based, protease inhibitor-based, or non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based first-line ART on long-term CD4/CD8 ratio recovery.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included 13 026 individuals with HIV registered in the Spanish HIV Research Network (CoRIS) cohort recruited from 45 Spanish hospitals. We included HIV-positive people who started triple ART (two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors [NRTI] with a NNRTI, protease inhibitor, or INSTI) and had HIV RNA suppression within 48 weeks. We used piecewise linear mixed models adjusted for potential confounders to compare longitudinal changes in the CD4/CD8 ratio between people receiving three different types of ART. We used Cox proportional-hazard models to compare the times to CD4/CD8 normalisation between the treatment groups, using cutoff ratios of 0·4, 1·0, and 1·5.

FINDINGS

6804 individuals contributing 37 149 persons-years and 37 680 observations were analysed; median follow-up was 49 months (IQR 22-89). INSTI-based ART was associated with greater CD4/CD8 gain (change per year compared with INSTI was coefficient -0·07 [95% CI -0·08 to -0·06] for NNRTI and was -0·08 [-0·09 to -0·08] for protease inhibitors). Differences were observed from the first year of therapy and were driven by changes in both CD4 and CD8 cell counts. Subanalyses at different time periods suggested that these differences were driven by changes during the first year of ART without significant differences in the adjusted CD4/CD8 ratio trajectories after the second year of ART (change per year compared with INSTI was coefficient -0·03 [95% CI -0·05 to -0·13] for NNRTI and was -0·06 [95% CI -0·08 to -0·04] for protease inhibitors). Although no differences in the time until CD4/CD8 normalisation at a cutoff ratio of no less than 0·4 were reported between any of the groups, compared with the INSTI group, both the NNRTI and protease inhibitor groups showed lower rates of normalisation at cutoff ratios of 1·0 or more (adjusted hazard ratio 0·80 [95% CI 0·72-0·89] for the NNRTI group and 0·79 [0·69-0·89] for the protease inhibitor group), and 1·5 or more (0·79 [0·65-0·95] for the NNRTI group and 0·78 [0·64-0·97] for the protease inhibitor group). No differences were found between the different integrases in the time until CD4/CD8 normalisation. Subanalyses adjusted for the backbone NRTIs and allowing observations after virological failure yielded similar results.

INTERPRETATION

This study provides new evidence that reinforces the positioning of INSTI-based therapies as a first choice and underlines the importance of analysing the effects of therapeutic interventions on biomarkers linked with morbidity and mortality beyond the plasma HIV RNA and the CD4 cell counts.

FUNDING

Spanish AIDS Research Network (Instituto de Salud Carlos III), European Development Regional Fund "A way to achieve Europe".

Correction to: Prognostic factors of mortality after surgery in infective endocarditis: systematic review and meta-analysis

The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake.