Development and application of consensus in silico models for advancing high-throughput toxicological predictions

Computational toxicology models have been successfully implemented to prioritize and screen chemicals. There are numerous in silico (quantitative) structure-activity relationship ([Q]SAR) models for the prediction of a range of human-relevant toxicological endpoints, but for a given endpoint and chemical, not all predictions are identical due to differences in their training sets, algorithms, and methodology. This poses an issue for high-throughput screening of a large chemical inventory as it necessitates several models to cover diverse chemistries but will then generate data conflicts. To address this challenge, we developed a consensus modeling strategy to combine predictions obtained from different existing in silico (Q)SAR models into a single predictive value while also expanding chemical space coverage. This study developed consensus models for nine toxicological endpoints relating to estrogen receptor (ER) and androgen receptor (AR) interactions (i.e., binding, agonism, and antagonism) and genotoxicity (i.e., bacterial mutation, in vitro chromosomal aberration, and in vivo micronucleus). Consensus models were created by combining different (Q)SAR models using various weighting schemes. As a multi-objective optimization problem, there is no single best consensus model, and therefore, Pareto fronts were determined for each endpoint to identify the consensus models that optimize the multiple-criterion decisions simultaneously. Accordingly, this work presents sets of solutions for each endpoint that contain the optimal combination, regardless of the trade-off, with the results demonstrating that the consensus models improved both the predictive power and chemical space coverage. These solutions were further analyzed to find trends between the best consensus models and their components. Here, we demonstrate the development of a flexible and adaptable approach for in silico consensus modeling and its application across nine toxicological endpoints related to ER activity, AR activity, and genotoxicity. These consensus models are developed to be integrated into a larger multi-tier NAM-based framework to prioritize chemicals for further investigation and support the transition to a non-animal approach to risk assessment in Canada.

Redox trapping of arsenic during groundwater discharge in sediments from the Meghna riverbank in Bangladesh

Groundwater arsenic (As) is elevated in the shallow Holocene aquifers of Bangladesh. In the dry season, the shallow groundwater discharges to major rivers. This process may influence the chemistry of the river and the hyporheic zone sediment. To assess the fate of As during discharge, surface (0-5 cm) and subsurface (1-3 m) sediment samples were collected at 9 sites from the bank of the Meghna River along a transect from its northern source (25 degrees N) to the Bay of Bengal (22.5 degrees N). Bulk As concentrations of surface sediment averaged 16 +/- 7 mg/kg (n = 9). Subsurface sediment contained higher mean concentrations of As of 4,000 mg/kg (n = 14), ranging from 1 to 23,000 mg/kg As, with >100 mg/kg As measured at 8 sites. X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy indicated that As was mainly arsenate and arsenite, not As-bearing sulfides. We hypothesize that the elevated sediment As concentrations form as As-rich groundwater discharges to the river, and enters a more oxidizing environment. A significant portion of dissolved As sorbs to iron-bearing minerals, which form a natural reactive barrier. Recycling of this sediment-bound As to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta aquifer provides a potential source of As to further contaminate groundwater. Furthermore, chemical fluxes from groundwater discharge from the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta may be less than previous estimates because this barrier can immobilize many elements.

Degradation rates of CFC-11, CFC-12 and CFC-113 in anoxic shallow aquifers of Araihazar, Bangladesh

Chlorofluorocarbons CFC-11 (CCl(3)F), CFC-12 (CCl(2)F(2)), and CFC-113 (CCl(2)F-CClF(2)) are used in hydrology as transient tracers under the assumption of conservative behavior in the unsaturated and saturated soil zones. However, laboratory and field studies have shown that these compounds are not stable under anaerobic conditions. To determine the degradation rates of CFCs in a tropical environment, atmospheric air, unsaturated zone soil gas, and anoxic groundwater samples were collected in Araihazar upazila, Bangladesh. Observed CFC concentrations in both soil gas and groundwater were significantly below those expected from atmospheric levels. The CFC deficits in the unsaturated zone can be explained by gas exchange with groundwater undersaturated in CFCs. The CFC deficits observed in (3)H/(3)He dated groundwater were used to estimate degradation rates in the saturated zone. The results show that CFCs are degraded to the point where practically no (<5%) CFC-11, CFC-12, or CFC-113 remains in groundwater with (3)H/(3)He ages above 10 yr. In groundwater sampled at our site CFC-11 and CFC-12 appear to degrade at similar rates with estimated degradation rates ranging from approximately 0.25 yr(-1) to approximately 6 yr(-1). Degradation rates increased as a function of reducing conditions. This indicates that CFC dating of groundwater in regions of humid tropical climate has to be carried out with great caution.

Flushing history as a hydrogeological control on the regional distribution of arsenic in shallow groundwater of the Bengal Basin

Whereas serious health consequences of widespread consumption of groundwater elevated in As have been documented in several South Asian countries, the mechanisms responsible for As mobilization in reducing aquifers remain poorly understood. We document here a previously unrecognized and consistent relationship between dissolved As concentrations in reducing groundwater and the phosphate-mobilizable As content of aquifer sediment for a set of precisely depth-matched samples from across Bangladesh. The relationship holds across nearly 3 orders of magnitude in As concentrations and suggests that regional as well as local patterns of dissolved As in shallow groundwater are set by the solid phase according to a remarkably constant ratio of approximately 250 microg/L dissolved As per 1 mg/kg P-mobilizable As. We use this relationship in a simple model of groundwater recharge to propose that the distribution of groundwater As in shallow aquifers of the Bengal Basin could primarily reflect the different flushing histories of sand formations deposited in the region over the past several thousand years.