Mortality variability and differentials by age and causes of death in rural South Africa, 1994-2018

INTRODUCTION

Understanding mortality variability by age and cause is critical to identifying intervention and prevention actions to support disadvantaged populations. We assessed mortality changes in two rural South African populations over 25 years covering pre-AIDS and peak AIDS epidemic and subsequent antiretroviral therapy (ART) availability.

METHODS

Using population surveillance data from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS; 1994-2018) and Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI; 2000-2018) for 5-year periods, we calculated life expectancy from birth to age 85, mortality age distributions and variation, and life-years lost (LYL) decomposed into four cause-of-death groups.

RESULTS

The AIDS epidemic shifted the age-at-death distribution to younger ages and increased LYL. For AHDSS, between 1994-1998 and 1999-2003 LYL increased for females from 13.6 years (95% CI 12.7 to 14.4) to 22.1 (95% CI 21.2 to 23.0) and for males from 19.9 (95% CI 18.8 to 20.8) to 27.1 (95% CI 26.2 to 28.0). AHRI LYL in 2000-2003 was extremely high (females=40.7 years (95% CI 39.8 to 41.5), males=44.8 years (95% CI 44.1 to 45.5)). Subsequent widespread ART availability reduced LYL (2014-2018) for women (AHDSS=15.7 (95% CI 15.0 to 16.3); AHRI=22.4 (95% CI 21.7 to 23.1)) and men (AHDSS=21.2 (95% CI 20.5 to 22.0); AHRI=27.4 (95% CI 26.7 to 28.2)), primarily due to reduced HIV/AIDS/TB deaths in mid-life and other communicable disease deaths in children. External causes increased as a proportion of LYL for men (2014-2018: AHRI=25%, AHDSS=17%). The share of AHDSS LYL 2014-2018 due to non-communicable diseases exceeded pre-HIV levels: females=43%; males=40%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight shifting burdens in cause-specific LYL and persistent mortality differentials in two populations experiencing complex epidemiological transitions. Results show high contributions of child deaths to LYL at the height of the AIDS epidemic. Reductions in LYL were primarily driven by lowered HIV/AIDS/TB and other communicable disease mortality during the ART periods. LYL differentials persist despite widespread ART availability, highlighting the contributions of other communicable diseases in children, HIV/AIDS/TB and external causes in mid-life and non-communicable diseases in older ages.

Understanding Household Dynamics From the Ground Up: A Longitudinal Study From a Rural South African Setting

Investigations into household structure in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) provide important insight into how families manage domestic life in response to resource allocation and caregiving needs during periods of rapid sociopolitical and health-related challenges. Recent evidence on household structure in many LMICs contrasts with long-standing viewpoints of worldwide convergence to a Western nuclearized household model. Here, we adopt a household-centered theoretical and methodological framework to investigate longitudinal patterns and dynamics of household structure in a rural South African setting during a period of high AIDS-related mortality and socioeconomic change. Data come from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (2003-2015). Using latent transition models, we derived six distinct household types by examining conditional interdependency between household heads' characteristics, members' age composition, and migration status. More than half of households were characterized by their complex and multigenerational profiles, with considerable within-typology variation in household size and dependency structure. Transition analyses showed stability of household types under female headship, while higher proportions of nuclearized household types dissolved over time. Household dissolution was closely linked to prior mortality experiences-particularly, following death of a male head. Our findings highlight the need to better conceptualize and contextualize household changes across populations and over time.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy in Australia, 2020-22

BACKGROUND

Australia provides a valuable international case study of life expectancy during the pandemic. In contrast to many other countries, it experienced relatively stringent restrictions and low COVID-19 mortality during 2020-21, followed by relaxation of these restrictions when high vaccination rates were achieved. This study measures Australia's life expectancy trends and the contributions of age group and causes of death, during the pandemic.

METHODS

Trends in life expectancy at birth in Australia and its states and territories were measured from 2020 to 2022. The contributions of age group and cause of death to these trends were measured using decomposition methods. Life expectancy was compared with other high-income countries.

RESULTS

Australia's life expectancy fell by more than half a year in 2022, following a sharp increase in 2020 and moderate decline in 2021. For the 3 years 2020 to 2022, life expectancy was 0.13 years (95% confidence interval 0.07-0.19) higher for males and 0.09 years (0.03-0.14) higher for females versus 2017-19. Australia's life expectancy increase in 2020 was larger than that in the vast majority of other high-income countries, but its decline in 2022 was greater than in other countries whose life expectancy rose in the first year of the pandemic. The small negative contribution of COVID-19 deaths to life expectancy in Australia was more than offset by lower non-communicable disease mortality. There were only small differences in life expectancy change between the states with the most stringent restrictions (Victoria and New South Wales) and the rest of Australia.

CONCLUSIONS

Australia's life expectancy trends during 2020-22 were relatively favourable compared with other high-income countries, with the exception of its sharp decline in 2022 once restrictions were loosened.

Gender inequities in women's access to maternal health care utilisation in Zambia: a qualitative analysis

BACKGROUND

The role of gender inequities in women's ability to access maternal health care has mainly been analysed from either women's or men's perspective only. In this article, we explore the role of gender inequities in maternal health care utilisation from both men's and women's perspectives.

METHODS

Thirty-six interviews were conducted with reproductive age women (n = 24), and men whose wives/partners gave birth within the last three years prior to our study in Zambia (n = 12). Our study sought to improve understanding of the normative environment in which women and men make decisions on maternal health care utilisation in Zambia.

RESULTS

We found that men and women had different expectations regarding their gender roles in maternal health care utilisation, which created inequities reinforced by societal norms and traditions. Men make most household decisions including those related to reproductive health and they often have the major say in access to maternal health services despite not having holistic maternal health information which creates challenges in maternal health care utilisation.

CONCLUSION

The study highlights the need for maternal health care utilisation decisions to be made by both men and women and that men should be fully involved in maternal health care from pregnancy until after child birth. Further, there is urgent need for concerted and sustained efforts to change traditional norms that reinforce these inequities and affect maternal health care utilisation if Zambia is to meet Sustainable Development Goal-3.1.

The effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019: a data note

OBJECTIVES

South Africa is experiencing both HIV and hypertension epidemics. Data were compiled for a study to identify effects of HIV and high systolic blood pressure on mortality risk among people aged 40-plus in a rural South African area experiencing high prevalence of both conditions. We aim to release the replication data set for this study.

DATA DESCRIPTION

The research data comes from the 2010-11 Ha Nakekela (We Care) population-based survey nested in the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS) located in the northeast region of South Africa. An age-sex-stratified probability sample was drawn from the AHDSS. The public data set includes information on individual socioeconomic characteristics and measures of HIV status and blood pressure for participants aged 40-plus by 2019. The AHDSS, through its annual surveillance, provided mortality data for nine years subsequent to the survey. These data were converted to person-year observations and linked to the individual-level survey data using participants' AHDSS census identifier. The data can be used to replicate Houle et al. (2022) - which used discrete-time event history models stratified by sex to assess differential mortality risks according to Ha Nakekela measures of HIV-infection, HIV-1 RNA viral load, and systolic blood pressure.

Parental imprisonment, delinquent behavior, and BMI gain in a U.S. nationally representative cohort study of adolescents and adults ages 12-32

Children who experience parental imprisonment report greater mental and physical health adversities in adolescence and adulthood relative to comparable individuals whose parents did not serve time in prison. Research has linked BMI gain with parental imprisonment among females, but other studies have shown null or negative associations between parental imprisonment and weight increases for their offspring. Using longitudinal data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, this study attempts to resolve these differential findings by examining the interrelationship between delinquent behavior and BMI associated with parental imprisonment as individuals progress from adolescence into adulthood (ages 12-32). We show that higher delinquency levels are associated with lower BMI among men and women. With the transition from adolescence to adulthood, parental imprisonment is linked with increased BMI gain and obesity among females who are not delinquent. These findings highlight the need to consider how the decline in delinquent behavior and increasing health disparities between adolescence and adulthood may intersect as individuals experiencing parental imprisonment transition from adolescence to adulthood.

Household structure, composition and child mortality in the unfolding antiretroviral therapy era in rural South Africa: comparative evidence from population surveillance, 2000-2015

OBJECTIVES

The structure and composition of the household has important influences on child mortality. However, little is known about these factors in HIV-endemic areas and how associations may change with the introduction and widespread availability of antiretroviral treatment (ART). We use comparative, longitudinal data from two demographic surveillance sites in rural South Africa (2000-2015) on mortality of children younger than 5 years (n=101 105).

DESIGN

We use multilevel discrete time event history analysis to estimate children's probability of dying by their matrilineal residential arrangements. We also test if associations have changed over time with ART availability.

SETTING

Rural South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

Children younger than 5 years (n=101 105).

RESULTS

3603 children died between 2000 and 2015. Mortality risks differed by co-residence patterns along with different types of kin present in the household. Children in nuclear households with both parents had the lowest risk of dying compared with all other household types. Associations with kin and child mortality were moderated by parental status. Having older siblings lowered the probability of dying only for children in a household with both parents (relative risk ratio (RRR)=0.736, 95% CI (0.633 to 0.855)). Only in the later ART period was there evidence that older adult kin lowered the probability of dying for children in single parent households (RRR=0.753, 95% CI (0.664 to 0.853)).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide comparative evidence of how differential household profiles may place children at higher mortality risk. Formative research is needed to understand the role of other household kin in promoting child well-being, particularly in one-parent households that are increasingly prevalent.

Impact of diabetes on longevity and disability-free life expectancy among older South African adults: A prospective longitudinal analysis

AIMS

We seek to understand the coexisting effects of population aging and a rising burden of diabetes on healthy longevity in South Africa.

METHODS

We used longitudinal data from the 2015 and 2018 waves of the "Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa" (HAALSI) study to explore life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) of adults aged 45 and older with and without diabetes in rural South Africa. We estimated LE and DFLE by diabetes status using Markov-based microsimulation.

RESULTS

We find a clear gradient in remaining LE and DFLE based on diabetes status. At age 45, a man without diabetes could expect to live 7.4 [95% CI 3.4 - 11.7] more years than a man with diabetes, and a woman without diabetes could expect to live 3.9 [95% CI: 0.8 - 6.9] more years than a woman with diabetes. Individuals with diabetes lived proportionately more years subject to disability than individuals without diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

We find large and important decrements in disability-free aging for people with diabetes in South Africa. This finding should motivate efforts to strengthen prevention and treatment efforts for diabetes and its complications for older adults in this setting.

Significant Improvement in Blood Pressure Levels Among Older Adults With Hypertension in Rural South Africa

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing an epidemiologic transition from infectious diseases to cardiovascular diseases. From 2014 to 2019, sociodemographic surveillance was performed in a large cohort in rural South Africa.

METHODS

Disease prevalence and incidence were calculated using inverse probability weights. Poisson regression was used to identify disease predictors. The percentage of individuals with controlled (<140/90 mm Hg) versus uncontrolled hypertension was compared between 2014 and 2019.

RESULTS

Compared with 2014 (n=5059), study participants in 2019 (n=4176) had similar rates of obesity (mean body mass index, 27.5±10.0 versus 27.0±6.5) but higher smoking (9.1% versus 11.5%) and diabetes (11.1% versus 13.9%). There was no significant increase in hypertension prevalence (58.4% versus 59.8%; age adjusted, 64.3% versus 63.3%), and there was a significant reduction in mean systolic blood pressure (138.0 versus 128.5 mm Hg; P<0.001). Among hypertensive individuals who reported medication use in 2014 and 2019 (n=796), the proportion with controlled hypertension on medication increased from 44.5% to 62.3%. Hypertension incidence was 6.2 per 100 person-years, and age was the only independent predictor. Among normotensive individuals in 2014 (n=2257), 15.2% developed hypertension by 2019, with the majority already controlled on medications by 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

The hypertension prevalence and incidence are plateauing in this aging cohort. There was a statistically and clinically significant decline in mean blood pressure and a substantial increase in individuals with controlled hypertension on medication. The prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors did not decrease over time, suggesting that the blood pressure decrease is likely due to increased medication access and adherence, promoted by local health systems.

Significant improvement in blood pressure control among older adults with hypertension in rural South Africa: findings from a prospective 5,000-patient cohort, 2014–2019

Background

Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing an epidemiologic transition dominated by a widespread epidemic of hypertension (HTN). Since 2014, we began studying a cohort of 5,059 individuals in rural South Africa, to describe the evolution of HTN among older adults, and understand the impact of targeted interventions by local health systems.

Purpose

Characterize the updated prevalence and incidence of HTN in a prospective cohort between baseline (2014) and follow-up (2019), and describe changes in blood pressure (BP) treatment.

Methods

HTN was defined as systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure (DBP) ≥90 mm Hg, or self-reported medication use. Prevalence and incidence rates were calculated using inverse-probability weights to account for mortality and attrition. Poisson regression was used to identify predictors of disease incidence. We calculated the percentage of individuals with controlled versus uncontrolled HTN (with 140/90 mm Hg as cutoff), self-reported medication use, and compared these values between 2014 and 2019.

Results

Compared to 2014 (n=5,059), study participants in 2019 (n=4,176) were expectedly older (mean age 61.7±13.1 vs 66.0±13.0 years) but had similar sex distribution (53.6% vs 53.5% females) and weighted rates of obesity (mean BMI 27.5±10.0 vs 27.0±6.5), with higher rates of smoking (9.1% vs 11.8%) and diabetes (11.1% vs 13.7%). The HTN prevalence did not increase over time (58.4% vs 59.8%), and there was a significant reduction in mean SBP (138.0 vs 128.5 mm Hg, p&lt;0.001) and DBP (82.1 vs 79.6 mm Hg, p&lt;0.001). In the subgroup of hypertensive individuals with measured BP and self-reported medication use in both 2014 and 2019 (n=796), the percentage who had controlled HTN on medications increased from 44.5% to 62.3% while the percentage who had uncontrolled HTN on medications or uncontrolled HTN not on medications decreased (48.5% to 32.2% and 7.2% to 3%, respectively) from 2014 to 2019 (Figure 1). The HTN incidence was 6.2 per 100 person-years, which was lower than prior reports from this area (8.4 per 100 person-years in 2010–2015); in multivariable models, age was the only significant predictor of incident HTN. In the subgroup of individuals who were healthy at baseline with measured BP and self-reported medication use in 2014 and 2019 (n=2,257), very few developed HTN by 2019 (15.2%); of those, the majority already had controlled HTN and was on medications by 2019 (Figure 2).

Conclusions

The prevalence of HTN did not increase in this aging cohort; in fact there was a clinically and statistically significant decline in mean BP and a substantial increase in the proportion of hypertensive patients with controlled HTN taking medications between 2014 and 2019. The prevalence of obesity, smoking and other risk factors did not decrease over time, suggesting that the mean BP decrease in this cohort is likely due to increased access and adherence to medications, promoted by local health systems.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): National Institute on Aging (P01 AG041710), and Department of Science and Innovation, the University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa.

Differences in healthy longevity by HIV status and viral load among older South African adults: an observational cohort modelling study

BACKGROUND

The population of people living with HIV in South Africa is rapidly ageing due to increased survivorship attributable to antiretroviral therapy (ART). We sought to understand how the combined effects of HIV and ART have led to differences in healthy longevity by HIV status and viral suppression in this context.

METHODS

In this observational cohort modelling study we use longitudinal data from the 2015 baseline interview (from Nov 13, 2014, to Nov 30, 2015) and the 2018 longitudinal follow-up interview (from Oct 12, 2018, to Nov 7, 2019) of the population-based study Health and Ageing in Africa: a Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa (HAALSI) to estimate life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) of adults aged 40 years and older in rural South Africa. Respondents who consented to HIV testing, responded to survey questions on disability, and who were either interviewed in both surveys or who died between survey waves were included in the analysis. We estimate life expectancy and DFLE by HIV status and viral suppression (defined as <200 copies per mL) using Markov-based microsimulation.

FINDINGS

Among the 4322 eligible participants from the HAALSI study, we find a clear gradient in remaining life expectancy and DFLE based on HIV serostatus and viral suppression. At age 45 years, the life expectancy of a woman without HIV was 33·2 years (95% CI 32·0-35·0), compared with 31·6 years (29·2-34·1) a woman with virally suppressed HIV, and 26·4 years (23·1-29·1) for a woman with unsuppressed HIV; life expectancy for a 45 year old man without HIV was 27·2 years (25·8-29·1), compared with 24·1 years (20·9-27·2) for a man with virally suppressed HIV, and 17·4 years (15·0-20·3) for a man with unsuppressed HIV. Men and women with viral suppression could expect to live nearly as many years of DFLE as HIV-uninfected individuals at ages 45 years and 65 years.

INTERPRETATION

These results highlight the tremendous benefits of ART for population health in high-HIV-prevalence contexts and reinforce the need for continued work in making ART treatment accessible to ageing populations.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health.

The double-edged role of accessed status on health and well-being among middle- and older-age adults in rural South Africa: The HAALSI study

Background

Social capital theory conceptualizes accessed status (the socioeconomic status of social contacts) as interpersonal resources that generate positive health returns, while social cost theory suggests that accessed status can harm health due to the sociopsychological costs of generating and maintaining these relationships. Evidence for both hypotheses has been observed in higher-income countries, but not in more resource-constrained settings.

We therefore investigated whether the dual functions of accessed status on health may be patterned by its interaction with network structure and functions among an older population in rural South Africa.

Method

We used baseline survey data from the HAALSI study (“Health and Aging in Africa: a Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa”) among 4,379 adults aged 40 and older. We examined the direct effect of accessed status (measured as network members’ literacy), as well as its interaction with network size and instrumental support, on life satisfaction and self-rated health.

Results

In models without interactions, accessed status was positively associated with life satisfaction but not self-rated health. Higher accessed status was positively associated with both outcomes for those with fewer personal contacts. Interaction effects were further patterned by gender, being most health-protective for women with a smaller network and most health-damaging for men with a larger network.

Conclusions

Supporting social capital theory, we find that having higher accessed status is associated with better health and well-being for older adults in a setting with limited formal support resources. However, the explanatory power of both theories appears to depending on other key factors, such as gender and network size, highlighting the importance of contextualizing theories in practice.

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We investigated the double-edged role of accessed status on self-rated health and life satisfaction among older South Africans in a rural setting.

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Accessed status was overall positively associated with life satisfaction.

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Accessed status was positively associated with health and well-being for women, unemployed respondents, and people with fewer social contacts.

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We found an inverse association between accessed status and life satisfaction among men with a larger personal network.

Parental imprisonment as a risk factor for cardiovascular and metabolic disease in adolescent and adult offspring: A prospective Australian birth cohort study

Objectives

Parental imprisonment is linked with child health in later life. The present study provides the first prospective cohort analysis and non-U.S. based study examining parental imprisonment and cardiometabolic risk factors in adolescence and adulthood.

Methods

The study followed 7,223 children born from live, singleton births from 1981 to 1984 in Brisbane, Australia. Data on parental imprisonment was collected at mother interview when the children were ages 5 and 14. Our sample analyzes offspring with biometric data collected by health professionals, including 3,794 at age 14, 2,136 at age 21, and 1,712 at age 30. Analyses used multivariate linear and logistic regression, and time-varying growth curve models.

Results

Among female respondents, parental imprisonment at ages ≤5 was associated with higher body-mass index (BMI) at ages 14, 21, and 30; higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) at age 30; and increased sedentary hours, larger waist circumference, and odds of a high-risk waist circumference at age 30. Parental imprisonment when the child was aged ≤14 was associated with increased BMI and SBP at age 30 for females. In growth-curve models, parental imprisonment when the child was aged ≤5 and ≤ 14 among females was linked with increased BMI; parental imprisonment when the child was aged ≤5 was associated with increased SBP and DBP. No significant associations were observed for males.

Conclusions

Using prospective cohort data, our results support research showing that parental imprisonment, particularly in early childhood, is associated with increased BMI, blood pressure, sedentary hours, and waist circumference in females in early adulthood. These findings implicate parental imprisonment as a risk factor for cardiometabolic health issues in later life among females.

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First prospective study examining parental imprisonment and cardiovascular risk using non-U.S. data.

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Study analyzes outcomes for children at ages 14, 21, and 30.

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Outcomes include BMI, waist circumference, systemic and diabolic blood pressure, and sedentary behaviors.

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Cardiometabolic risk factors strongest for females experiencing parental imprisonment at or below age 5.

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Findings hold in both cross-sectional and time-varying models.

Twin epidemics: the effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019

Background

Sub-Saharan African settings are experiencing dual epidemics of HIV and hypertension. We investigate effects of each condition on mortality and examine whether HIV and hypertension interact in determining mortality.

Methods

Data come from the 2010 Ha Nakekela population-based survey of individuals ages 40 and older (1,802 women; 1,107 men) nested in the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System in rural South Africa, which provides mortality follow-up from population surveillance until mid-2019. Using discrete-time event history models stratified by sex, we assessed differential mortality risks according to baseline measures of HIV infection, HIV-1 RNA viral load, and systolic blood pressure.

Results

During the 8-year follow-up period, mortality was high (477 deaths). Survey weighted estimates are that 37% of men (mortality rate 987.53/100,000, 95% CI: 986.26 to 988.79) and 25% of women (mortality rate 937.28/100,000, 95% CI: 899.7 to 974.88) died. Over a quarter of participants were living with HIV (PLWH) at baseline, over 50% of whom had unsuppressed viral loads. The share of the population with a systolic blood pressure of 140mm Hg or higher increased from 24% at ages 40-59 to 50% at ages 75-plus and was generally higher for those not living with HIV compared to PLWH. Men and women with unsuppressed viral load had elevated mortality risks (men: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.23, 95% CI: 2.21 to 4.71, women: aOR 2.05, 95% CI: 1.27 to 3.30). There was a weak, non-linear relationship between systolic blood pressure and higher mortality risk. We found no significant interaction between systolic blood pressure and HIV status for either men or women (p>0.05).

Conclusions

Our results indicate that HIV and elevated blood pressure are acting as separate, non-interacting epidemics affecting high proportions of the older adult population.

PLWH with unsuppressed viral load were at higher mortality risk compared to those uninfected. Systolic blood pressure was a mortality risk factor independent of HIV status. As antiretroviral therapy becomes more widespread, further longitudinal follow-up is needed to understand how the dynamics of increased longevity and multimorbidity among people living with both HIV and high blood pressure, as well as the emergence of COVID-19, may alter these patterns.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-12791-z.

Hypertension incidence among middle-aged and older adults: findings from a 5-year prospective study in rural South Africa, 2010-2015

OBJECTIVES

There is a scarcity of longitudinal cohort studies in sub-Saharan Africa to understand the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease as a basis for intervention. We estimated incident hypertension and associated sociodemographic, health and behavioural risk factors in a population aged 40 years and older over a 5-year period.

DESIGN

We assessed the association between incident hypertension and sociodemographic, health and behavioural factors using Poisson regression. We adjusted for non-response in 2015 using inverse probability sampling weights from a logistic regression including sex and age at baseline.

SETTING

Rural South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

We used a population-based cohort of normotensive adults in 2010 who were aged 40 years and older at retest in 2015.

RESULTS

Of 676 individuals completing baseline and 5-year follow-up, there were 193 incident cases of hypertension. The overall hypertension incidence rate was 8.374/100 person-years. In multivariable analyses, those who became hypertensive were more likely to be older, have a high waist circumference (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.557, 95% CI: 1.074 to 2.259) and be employed (IRR: 1.579, 95% CI: 1.071 to 2.329) at baseline. Being HIV positive and not on antiretroviral therapy at baseline was associated with lower risk of incident hypertension.

CONCLUSIONS

Over a 5-year period, 29% of respondents developed hypertension. Given the high burden of hypertension in South Africa, continued longitudinal follow-up is needed to understand the complex interplay of non-communicable and infectious diseases and their underlying and modifiable risk factors to inform public health prevention strategies and programmes.

"A NOWADAYS DISEASE": HIV/AIDS AND SOCIAL CHANGE IN A RURAL SOUTH AFRICAN COMMUNITY

Why do some people adapt successfully to change while others do not? We examine this question in the context of a severe HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa, where adapting (or not) to social change has borne life and death consequences. Applying an age-period-cohort lens to the analysis of qualitative life history interviews among middle-aged and older adults, we consider the role of the life course and gendered sexuality in informing Africans' strategies of action, or inaction, and in differentially driving and stalling change in each cohort in response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Our study illuminates the unique challenges of adapting to social change that result from dynamic interactions among aging, prevailing social structures, and a cohort's socio-historical orientation to a new period.

Mortality transition over a quarter century in rural South Africa: findings from population surveillance in Agincourt 1993-2018

Background

Mortality burden in South Africa since the mid-1990s has been characterized by a quadruple disease burden: HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB); other communicable diseases (excluding HIV/AIDS and TB), maternal causes, perinatal conditions and nutritional deficiencies; non-communicable diseases (NCDs); and injuries. Causes from these broad groupings have persistently constituted the top 10 causes of death. However, proportions and rankings have varied over time, alongside overall mortality levels.

Objective

To provide evidence on the contributions of age and cause-of-death to changes in mortality levels in a rural South African population over a quarter century (1993–2018).

Methods

Using mortality and cause-of-death data from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), we derive estimates of the distribution of deaths by cause, and hazards of death by age, sex, and time period, 1993–2018. We derive estimates of life expectancies at birth and years of life expectancy gained at age 15 if most common causes of death were deleted. We compare mortality indicators and cause-of-death trends from the Agincourt HDSS with South African national indicators generated from publicly available datasets.

Results

Mortality and cause-of-death transition reveals that overall mortality levels have returned to pre-HIV epidemic levels. In recent years, the concentration of mortality has shifted towards older ages, and the mortality burden from cardiovascular diseases and other chronic NCDs are more prominent as people living with HIV/AIDS access ART and live longer. Changes in life expectancy at birth, distribution of deaths by age, and major cause-of-death categories in the Agincourt population follow a similar pattern to the South African population.

Conclusion

The Agincourt HDSS provides critical information about general mortality, cause-of-death, and age patterns in rural South Africa. Realigning and strengthening the South African public health and healthcare systems is needed to concurrently cater for the prevention, control, and treatment of multiple disease conditions.

Thoughts of self-harm in early and late pregnancy in urban South Africa: Investigating prevalence, predictors and screening options

BACKGROUND

Thoughts of self-harm (TSH) are an important marker of mental health risk, and risk for attempted and completed suicide. While there is increasing attention being paid to mental health problems in pregnancy in South Africa (SA), TSH have received less attention despite some cross-sectional studies suggesting that prevalence may be high (12 - 39%). There is a dearth of longitudinal research to inform prevention and treatment.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the rates of TSH across pregnancy in a longitudinal SA cohort and to investigate factors associated with the onset and persistence of TSH, as well as the relationship between TSH, depression and/or anxiety.

METHODS

Women were enrolled in a prospective pregnancy cohort (S1000) in Soweto, SA between 2014 and 2016, and assessed using validated screening measures (Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) and State Trait Anxiety Index short form) in early and later pregnancy. Data were available for 649 women. TSH were determined using EPDS item 10. Logistic regression and bifactor models were used to determine factors associated with TSH across pregnancy.

RESULTS

 Of the 649 women, 18% reported TSH at some stage during their pregnancy. Prevalence of TSH was slightly higher in early pregnancy (12.5%) than later in pregnancy (11.6%). TSH were associated with a history of mental illness (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 4.17; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3 - 13.7; p=0.020), concurrent depression (aOR 4.8; 95%CI 2.7 - 8.6; p<0.001); marital stress (aOR 1.74; 95% CI 1.0 - 3.0; p=0.040); and practical support (aOR 0.43; 95% CI 0.2 - 1.0; p=0.040) using a multivariate logistic regression. Bifactor analysis examining depression and anxiety scales showed that TSH contributed the highest variance to a shared depression and anxiety factor in early pregnancy. Logistic regressions showed that early depression was a strong predictor of later reports of TSH.

CONCLUSIONS

 The present study shows that the risk of TSH during pregnancy is relatively common, and starts early during pregnancy. Screening approaches could be simplified to encourage healthcare practitioners working in busy and over-burdened public healthcare settings to engage in identifying at-risk women. Efforts in improving early identification of mental health risk in pregnancy should be matched with strengthening of current treatment and referral options. Since practical support and a good marital relationship reduce the risk of TSH, these may be important avenues of focus for designing interventions.

Assessing the relationship between parental imprisonment in childhood and risk of sexually transmitted infections: a cohort study of US adults in early adulthood

OBJECTIVES

One in six young adults in the USA experiences parental imprisonment in childhood. Prior studies have associated parental imprisonment with risk of sexually transmitted infection (STI); however, potential data and methodological issues may have limited the reliability and accuracy of prior findings. Examining cumulative and longitudinal risk, we address several methodological limitations of prior studies and also examine comparative risk by respondent sex and ethnicity. We assess these associations using a range of control variables.

DESIGN

A national cohort study from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health using (1) a cross-sectional sample of adults at ages 24-32 years and (2) a longitudinal sample between ages 18 and 32 years. Both analyses estimate ORs for STI associated with parental imprisonment and examine variation by parent/child gender and respondent ethnicity.

SETTING

In-home interviews in the USA at wave 1 (1994-1995), wave 3 (2001-2003) and wave 4 (2007-2009).

PARTICIPANTS

15 684 respondents completing interviews at wave 1 (ages 12-18 years) and wave 4 (ages 26-32 years), including 8556 women, 3437 black and 2397 respondents reporting parental imprisonment.

RESULTS

Father-only imprisonment is associated with 1.22 higher odds (95% CI: 1.09 to 1.37) of lifetime STI and 1.19 higher odds (95% CI: 1.01 to 1.41) of STI in the past 12 months between ages 18 and 32 years, adjusting for familial, neighbourhood, individual and sexual risk factors. Maternal imprisonment is not associated with higher risk of lifetime STI after adjusting for confounders (95% CI: 0.90 to 1.61). Examining predicted probabilities of STI, our findings show additive risks for women, black people and parental imprisonment.

CONCLUSION

Adjusting for confounders, only paternal imprisonment is associated with slightly elevated risk of annual and lifetime risk of STI. Additive effects show that parental imprisonment modestly increases ethnic and female risk for STI.

Linking the timing of a mother's and child's death: Comparative evidence from two rural South African population-based surveillance studies, 2000-2015

BACKGROUND

The effect of the period before a mother's death on child survival has been assessed in only a few studies. We conducted a comparative investigation of the effect of the timing of a mother's death on child survival up to age five years in rural South Africa.

METHODS

We used discrete time survival analysis on data from two HIV-endemic population surveillance sites (2000-2015) to estimate a child's risk of dying before and after their mother's death. We tested if this relationship varied between sites and by availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We assessed if related adults in the household altered the effect of a mother's death on child survival.

FINDINGS

3,618 children died from 2000-2015. The probability of a child dying began to increase in the 7-11 months prior to the mother's death and increased markedly in the 3 months before (2000-2003 relative risk = 22.2, 95% CI = 14.2-34.6) and 3 months following her death (2000-2003 RR = 20.1; CI = 10.3-39.4). This increased risk pattern was evident at both sites. The pattern attenuated with ART availability but remained even with availability at both sites. The father and maternal grandmother in the household lowered children's mortality risk independent of the association between timing of mother and child mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The persistence of elevated mortality risk both before and after the mother's death for children of different ages suggests that absence of maternal care and abrupt breastfeeding cessation might be crucial risk factors. Formative research is needed to understand the circumstances for children when a mother is very ill or dies, and behavioral and other risk factors that increase both the mother and child's risk of dying. Identifying families when a mother is very ill and implementing training and support strategies for other members of the household are urgently needed to reduce preventable child mortality.

Antenatal depression and anxiety across pregnancy in urban South Africa

BACKGROUND

Depression and anxiety in pregnancy have negative consequences for women and their offspring. High adversity places pregnant women at increased mental health risk, yet there is a dearth of longitudinal research in these settings. Little is known about the pathways by which these problems emerge or persist in pregnancy.

METHODS

Women were enrolled in a prospective pregnancy cohort in Soweto, South Africa (2014-2016) and assessed using validated measures (Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale EPDS ≥13; State Trait Anxiety Index STAI ≥12) in early (T1) and later pregnancy (T2). Data was available for n = 649 women. Multinominal regression modelling was used to determine factors associated with transient versus persistent depression and anxiety across pregnancy. Cross-lagged panel modelling explored direction of effect between depression and anxiety, and stressors.

RESULTS

We found high rates of depression (T1: 27%; T2: 25%) and anxiety (T1: 15%; T2: 17%). Perceiving a partner made one's life harder increased risk of persistent depression (RR 5.92 95% CI [3.0-11.8] p<0.001); family stress increased risk for persistent anxiety (RR 1.71 95% CI [1.1-2.7] p = 0.027). We find evidence of a direct effect of early depression (T1) on later family stress (T2); and early family stress (T1) on later anxiety (T2).

LIMITATIONS

We used screening measures of depression and anxiety rather than clinical interviews.

CONCLUSIONS

Studies which focus only on late pregnancy may underestimate risk. Early identification, in the first trimester, is critical for prevention and treatment. Partner and family stressors are a key intervention target.

Clusters of HIV Risk and Protective Sexual Behaviors in Agincourt, Rural South Africa: Findings from the Ha Nakekela Population-Based Study of Ages 15 and Older

Understanding how sexual behaviors cluster in distinct population subgroups along the life course is critical for effective targeting and tailoring of HIV prevention messaging and intervention activities. We examined interrelatedness of sexual behaviors and variation between men and women across a wide age range in a rural South African setting with a high HIV burden. Data come from the Ha Nakekela population-based survey of people aged 15-85-plus drawn from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System. We used latent class analysis of six sexual behavior indicators to identify distinct subgroup sexual behavior clusters. We then examined associations between class membership and sociodemographic and other behavioral risk factors and assessed the accuracy of a reduced set of sexual behavior indicators to classify individuals into latent classes. We identified three sexual behavior classes: (1) single with consistent protective behaviors; (2) risky behaviors; and (3) in union with lack of protective behaviors. Patterns of sexual behaviors varied by gender. Class membership was also associated with age, HIV status, nationality, and alcohol use. With only two sexual behavior indicators (union status and multiple sexual partners), individuals were accurately assigned to their most likely predicted class. There were distinct multidimensional sexual behavior clusters in population subgroups that varied by sex, age, and HIV status. In this population, only two brief questions were needed to classify individuals into risk classes. Replication in other situations is needed to confirm these findings.

Cognitive function and cardiometabolic disease risk factors in rural South Africa: baseline evidence from the HAALSI study

BACKGROUND

Evidence on cognitive function in older South Africans is limited, with few population-based studies. We aimed to estimate baseline associations between cognitive function and cardiometabolic disease risk factors in rural South Africa.

METHODS

We use baseline data from "Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa" (HAALSI), a population-based study of adults aged 40 and above in rural South Africa in 2015. Cognitive function was measured using measures of time orientation, immediate and delayed recall, and numeracy adapted from the Health and Retirement Study cognitive battery (overall total cognitive score range 0-26). We used multiple linear regression to estimate associations between cardiometabolic risk factors (including BMI, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, history of stroke, alcohol frequency, and smoking status) and the overall cognitive function score, adjusted for potential confounders.

RESULTS

In multivariable-adjusted analyses (n = 3018; male = 1520; female = 1498; median age 59 (interquartile range 50-67)), cardiometabolic risk factors associated with lower cognitive function scores included: diabetes (b = - 1.11 [95% confidence interval: - 2.01, - 0.20] for controlled diabetes vs. no diabetes); underweight BMI (b = - 0.87 [CI: - 1.48, - 0.26] vs. normal BMI); and current and past smoking history compared to never smokers. Factors associated with higher cognitive function scores included: obese BMI (b = 0.74 [CI: 0.39, 1.10] vs. normal BMI); and controlled hypertension (b = 0.53 [CI: 0.11, 0.96] vs. normotensive).

CONCLUSIONS

We provide an important baseline from rural South Africa on the associations between cardiometabolic disease risk factors and cognitive function in an older, rural South African population using standardized clinical measurements and cut-offs and widely used cognitive assessments. Future studies are needed to clarify temporal associations as well as patterns between the onset and duration of cardiometabolic conditions and cognitive function. As the South African population ages, effective management of cardiometabolic risk factors may be key to lasting cognitive health.

Breastfeeding, HIV exposure, childhood obesity, and prehypertension: A South African cohort study

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the association between breastfeeding and later childhood obesity and blood pressure (BP) is inconsistent, especially in HIV-prevalent areas where, until recently, HIV-infected women were discouraged from breastfeeding, but obesity is increasingly prevalent.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The Siyakhula cohort (2012-2014), a population-based prospective cohort study, collected data over 3 visits on HIV-negative children ages 7 to 11 years in rural South Africa. We used weight (body mass index [BMI]), fat, and BP as outcome variables and incorporated early life (including mother's age at delivery and HIV status) and current life factors (including maternal education and current BMI). Our primary exposure was breastfeeding duration. We dichotomized 3 outcome measures using pre-established thresholds for clinical interpretability: (1) overfat: ≥85th percentile of body fat; (2) overweight: >1 SD BMI z score; and (3) prehypertension: ≥90th percentile for systolic BP (SBP) or diastolic BP (DBP). We modelled each outcome using multivariable logistic regression, including stopping breastfeeding, then early life, and finally current life factors. Of 1,536 children (mean age = 9.3 years; 872 girls; 664 boys), 7% were overfat, 13.2% overweight, and 9.1% prehypertensive. Over half (60%) of the mothers reported continued breastfeeding for 12+ months. In multivariable analyses, continued breastfeeding between 6 and 11 months was associated with approximately halved odds of both being overfat (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.21-0.91, P = 0.027) and overweight (aOR = 0.46, CI 0.26-0.82, P = 0.0083), but the association with prehypertension did not reach statistical significance (aOR = 0.72, CI 0.38-1.37, P = 0.32). Children with a mother who was currently obese were 5 times more likely (aOR = 5.02, CI 2.47-10.20, P < 0.001) to be overfat and over 4 times more likely to be overweight (aOR = 4.33, CI 2.65-7.09, P < 0.001) than children with normal weight mothers. Differences between HIV-exposed and unexposed children on any of the outcomes were minimal and not significant. The main study limitation was that duration of breastfeeding was based on maternal recall.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first study examining and quantifying the association between breastfeeding and childhood obesity in an African setting with high HIV prevalence. We observed that breastfeeding was independently associated with reduced childhood obesity for both HIV-exposed and unexposed children, suggesting that promoting optimal nutrition throughout the life course, starting with continued breastfeeding, may be critical to tackling the growing obesity epidemic. In the era of widespread effective antiretroviral treatment for HIV-infected women for life, these data further support the recommendation of breastfeeding for all women.

Maternal alcohol use and children's emotional and cognitive outcomes in rural South Africa

BACKGROUND

Alcohol use in South Africa (SA) is increasing. The World Health Organization (WHO) states that SA is the third-largest drinking population in Africa, with the highest rate of fetal alcohol syndrome in the world. Internationally, parental drinking during childhood is a risk factor for poor child mental health, behavioural problems and weaker educational outcomes in middle childhood. However, parental alcohol use in Africa is under-researched, and much of the literature on maternal alcohol consumption is restricted to clinical and pregnancy samples.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate alcohol use and hazardous drinking (HD) among mothers/primary caregivers of children aged 7 - 11 years in a rural SA cohort. We explored risk factors for drinking and the association between HD and child behaviour/cognition.

METHODS

The primary outcome measure was the WHO Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) using the standardised cut-off for HD (≥8). Secondary measures were the Patient Health Questionnaire Depression Scale (PHQ-9), Patient Health Questionnaire General Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD-7), Parenting Stress Index, short form (PSI-36), Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL, parent reported), Kaufman Developmental Assessment Battery (KABC-II) for child cognition, and Neuropsychological Assessment Battery, 2nd edition, subtests (NEPSY-II) for executive function. We compared characteristics of those drinking/not drinking, using χ2 tests, and modelled outcomes on parenting stress, cognitive outcomes and CBCL scores for children using logistic regression analysis. We grouped mothers/caregivers engaged in HD to examine its effect on parent/child outcomes using t-tests to test for significant differences.

RESULTS

Of 1 505 women (1 266 mothers and 239 caregivers) with 1 536 children, 12% reported consuming alcohol and 3% reported HD. Higher maternal/caregiver age (31 - 40 years, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.57 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4 - 0.9); >41 years, aOR 0.30 (95% CI 0.2 - 0.5)), education (matriculation, aOR 0.49 (95% CI 0.3 - 0.9); post matriculation, aOR 0.30 (95% CI 0.1 - 0.6)), and a stable relationship with the father (aOR 0.6 (95% CI 0.4 - 1.0)) were associated with no alcohol use. Food insecurity increased the odds of alcohol use (aOR 1.52 (95% CI 1.1 - 2.1)), while parental mental health (parenting stress, anxiety) and child mental health problems were associated with approximately double the odds of consuming alcohol in univariate analysis. Children of HD mothers/caregivers had higher mean scores for psychological problems (CBCL total score: no HD (mean 45.0) v. HD (mean 48.9); p=0.029) and lower cognitive scores (KABC Learning Scale: no HD (mean 14.3) v. HD (mean 12.8); p=0.017).

CONCLUSIONS

While HD rates were low, maternal/caregiver alcohol use negatively impacted on parenting and children's behavioural/cognitive outcomes. International evidence suggests that integrated approaches engaging parents and families may be more effective for parent-child outcomes than individual psychiatric or medical care for the parent on their own.

How to "Live a Good Life": Aging and HIV Testing in Rural South Africa

OBJECTIVE

The African HIV epidemic is aging, yet HIV testing behavior studies either exclude older persons or include too few to say much about age differences.

METHOD

Strategically combining focus group interviews (participants in 40s/50s/60s-plus age groups) and survey data from rural South Africa (where HIV prevalence peaks in the late 30s, but continues to be over 10% into the late 60s), we examine gender and life course variation, motivations, and barriers in HIV testing.

RESULTS

We find significant gender differences-Women test at higher rates at younger ages, men at older ages. Our qualitative data not only highlight recognition of testing importance but also suggest gendered motivations and perceptions of testing. Men and women report similar barriers, however, including fear of finding out their (positive) HIV status, limited confidentiality, and partner nondisclosure.

DISCUSSION

We conclude with recommendations to increase HIV testing uptake among older adults including home testing, couples testing, and HIV testing concurrently with noncommunicable diseases.

Prevalence and risk factors for child mental disorders in a population-based cohort of HIV-exposed and unexposed African children aged 7-11 years

Despite being home to a large population of vulnerable children there is a dearth of population-based evidence on childhood mental disorders in sub-Saharan Africa. Parent and child mental health are rarely measured concurrently, despite potential for confounding with other risk factors, including parental HIV. Using the parent-report Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL) we assessed children's mental health in a population-based cohort of 1536 HIV-negative children (31% HIV-exposed, 18% HIV-affected, 51% HIV-unexposed) aged 7-11 years. CBCL was scored using CBCL Rating-to-Score software. A binary indicator was determined using the clinical threshold ≥ 65. We modelled mental disorders using logistic regression, including covariates associated with the mother, child, household, and parenting. Structural equation modelling techniques also derived continuous latent variables representing the underlying mental health and parent-relationship constructs. Prevalence of conduct disorders (11.8%) was high, regardless of HIV exposure, while HIV-affected children had increased odds of affective disorders. Maternal depression increased odds of externalising disorders; maternal anxiety was associated with affective and anxiety disorders. Mother-child relationship dysfunction increased odds of all disorders, including: affective [aOR = 5.1 (2.6-9.9)]; oppositional [aOR = 7.9 (4.0-15.5)]; conduct [aOR = 4.3 (2.6-7.2)] disorders. Food insecurity and male gender increased odds of somatic disorders; breastfeeding halved odds of conduct disorders. In the latent model, associations were substantially stronger for the mother-child relationship and externalising disorders (Oppositional 0.464 p < 0.001; Conduct 0.474 p = <0.001). Conduct disorders were high for all children regardless of HIV exposure. The mother-child relationship was strongly related to all child disorders, suggesting potential for concurrent interventions targeting child behaviours and the parent-child or mother-child relationship.

Sexual behavior and HIV risk across the life course in rural South Africa: trends and comparisons

There is limited information about sexual behavior among older Africans, which is problematic given high HIV rates among older adults. We use a population-based survey among people aged 15-80+ to examine the prevalence of sexual risk and protective behaviors in the context of a severe HIV epidemic. We focus on variation across the life course, gender and HIV serostatus to compare the similarities and differences of young, middle aged, and older adults. Younger adults continue to be at risk of HIV, with potential partners being more likely to have been diagnosed with an STI and more likely to have HIV, partner change is high, and condom use is low. Middle aged and older adults engage in sexual behavior that makes them vulnerable at older ages, including extramarital sex, low condom use, and cross-generational sex with people in age groups with the highest rates of HIV. We find insignificant differences between HIV positive and negative adults' reports of recent sexual activity. This study provides new information on sexual behavior and HIV risk across the life course in rural South Africa to inform HIV prevention and treatment programing.

Rural-urban variations in age at menarche, adult height, leg-length and abdominal adiposity in black South African women in transitioning South Africa

Background: The pre-pubertal socioeconomic environment may be an important determinant of age at menarche, adult height, body proportions and adiposity: traits closely linked to adolescent and adult health.

Aims: This study explored differences in age at menarche, adult height, relative leg-length and waist circumference between rural and urban black South African young adult women, who are at different stages of the nutrition and epidemiologic transitions.

Subjects and methods: We compared 18–23 year-old black South African women, 482 urban-dwelling from Soweto and 509 from the rural Mpumalanga province. Age at menarche, obstetric history and household socio-demographic and economic information were recorded using interview-administered questionnaires. Height, sitting-height, hip and waist circumference were measured using standardised techniques.

Results: Urban and rural black South African women differed in their age at menarche (at ages 12.7 and 14.5 years, respectively). In urban women, a one-year increase in age at menarche was associated with a 0.65 cm and 0.16% increase in height and relative leg-length ratio, respectively. In both settings, earlier age at menarche and shorter relative leg-length were independently associated with an increase in waist circumference.

Conclusions: In black South African women, the earlier onset of puberty, and consequently an earlier growth cessation process, may lead to central fat mass accumulation in adulthood.

Fieldworker effects on substance use reporting in a rural South African setting

AIMS

Fieldworkers capturing reports of sensitive behaviors, such as substance use, may influence survey responses and represent an important factor in response validity. We explored the effects and interaction of fieldworker and respondent characteristics (age and gender) in substance (tobacco and alcohol) use reporting. We aim to further the literature on conditional social attribution effects on substance use reporting in the context of South Africa, where accurate estimates of modifiable risk factors are critical for medical and public health practitioners and policy-makers in efforts to reduce chronic disease burden and mortality.

DESIGN

We modeled substance use reporting using binary logistic regression. We also tested if fieldworker effects remained, allowing for correlation in reporting for respondents with the same fieldworker using multi-level logistic regression.

SETTING

Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System site, rural South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

We used data from a 2010-2011 study on HIV and cardiometabolic risk, ages 15+ (N = 4,684).

MEASURES

Lifetime and current alcohol and tobacco use.

FINDINGS

Respondents reported higher lifetime smoking use to older fieldworkers. Male respondents reported higher lifetime alcohol use to older fieldworkers. No fieldworker effects were significant on reports of current smoking. An older, male fieldworker increased the probability of reports of current alcohol use. Adjusting for intra-fieldworker correlation explained many of the observed fieldworker effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results highlight the importance of adjusting for interviewer characteristics to improve the accuracy of chronic disease risk factor estimates and validity of inferred associations. We recommend that surveys collecting information that may be subject to response bias routinely include anonymized fieldworker identifiers and demographic information. Analysts can then use these additional fieldworker data as a tool in evaluating probable bias in respondent reporting.

Confirmatory factor analysis of the Kaufman assessment battery in a sample of primary school-aged children in rural South Africa

The Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children, Second Edition, measures cognitive processing, includes non-verbal sub-tests, and is increasingly used in low- and middle-income countries. While the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children, Second Edition, has been validated in the United States, a psychometric evaluation has not been conducted in Southern Africa. This study aims to establish the reliability and validity of the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children, Second Edition, among a sample of 376 primary school-aged children in rural South Africa (7–11 years). We examined Cronbach’s alpha and conducted a confirmatory factor analysis. The battery showed good reliability (mental processing index [α = .78]), and the originally validated structure of the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children, Second Edition, was maintained (χ2 = 16.30, p = .432). Mean scores were low on the Planning sub-scale. On the Simultaneous sub-scale, the mean score was higher for the supplementary sub-test Block Counting versus the core sub-test Triangles. With translation and the inclusion of supplementary sub-tests, the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children, Second Edition, is an appropriate assessment to use in this context (150/150).

Socioeconomic differences in mortality in the antiretroviral therapy era in Agincourt, rural South Africa, 2001-13: a population surveillance analysis

BACKGROUND

Understanding the effects of socioeconomic disparities in health outcomes is important to implement specific preventive actions. We assessed socioeconomic disparities in mortality indicators in a rural South African population over the period 2001-13.

METHODS

We used data from 21 villages of the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). We calculated the probabilities of death from birth to age 5 years and from age 15 to 60 years, life expectancy at birth, and cause-specific and age-specific mortality by sex (not in children <5 years), time period, and socioeconomic status (household wealth) quintile for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis, other communicable diseases (excluding HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis) and maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes, non-communicable diseases, and injury. We also quantified differences with relative risk ratios and relative and slope indices of inequality.

FINDINGS

Between 2001 and 2013, 10 414 deaths were registered over 1 058 538 person-years of follow-up, meaning the overall crude mortality was 9·8 deaths per 1000 person-years. We found significant socioecomonic status gradients for mortality and life expectancy at birth, with outcomes improving with increasing socioeconomic status. An inverse relation was seen for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis mortality and socioeconomic status that persisted from 2001 to 2013. Deaths from non-communicable diseases increased over time in both sexes, and injury was an important cause of death in men and boys. Neither of these causes of death, however, showed consistent significant associations with household socioeconomic status.

INTERPRETATION

The poorest people in the population continue to bear a high burden of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis mortality, despite free antiretroviral therapy being made available from public health facilities. Associations between socioeconomic status and increasing burden of mortality from non-communicable diseases is likely to become prominent. Integrated strategies are needed to improve access to and uptake of HIV testing, care, and treatment, and management of non-communicable diseases in the poorest populations.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, South African Medical Research Council, and University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa.

Progression of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African setting: findings from population surveillance in Agincourt, 1993-2013

Background

Virtually all low- and middle-income countries are undergoing an epidemiological transition whose progression is more varied than experienced in high-income countries. Observed changes in mortality and disease patterns reveal that the transition in most low- and middle-income countries is characterized by reversals, partial changes and the simultaneous occurrence of different types of diseases of varying magnitude. Localized characterization of this shifting burden, frequently lacking, is essential to guide decentralised health and social systems on the effective targeting of limited resources. Based on a rigorous compilation of mortality data over two decades, this paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African population.

Methods

We estimate overall and cause-specific hazards of death as functions of sex, age and time period from mortality data from the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System and conduct statistical tests of changes and differentials to assess the progression of the epidemiological transition over the period 1993–2013.

Results

From the early 1990s until 2007 the population experienced a reversal in its epidemiological transition, driven mostly by increased HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. In recent years, the transition is following a positive trajectory as a result of declining HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. However, in most age groups the cause of death distribution is yet to reach the levels it occupied in the early 1990s. The transition is also characterized by persistent gender differences with more rapid positive progression in females than males.

Conclusions

This typical rural South African population is experiencing a protracted epidemiological transition. The intersection and interaction of HIV/AIDS and antiretroviral treatment, non-communicable disease risk factors and complex social and behavioral changes will impact on continued progress in reducing preventable mortality and improving health across the life course. Integrated healthcare planning and program delivery is required to improve access and adherence for HIV and non-communicable disease treatment. These findings from a local, rural setting over an extended period contribute to the evidence needed to inform further refinement and advancement of epidemiological transition theory.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-017-4312-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Assessing Changes in Household Socioeconomic Status in Rural South Africa, 2001-2013: A Distributional Analysis Using Household Asset Indicators

Understanding the distribution of socioeconomic status (SES) and its temporal dynamics within a population is critical to ensure that policies and interventions adequately and equitably contribute to the well-being and life chances of all individuals. This study assesses the dynamics of SES in a typical rural South African setting over the period 2001-2013 using data on household assets from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Three SES indices, an absolute index, principal component analysis index and multiple correspondence analysis index, are constructed from the household asset indicators. Relative distribution methods are then applied to the indices to assess changes over time in the distribution of SES with special focus on location and shape shifts. Results show that the proportion of households that own assets associated with greater modern wealth has substantially increased over time. In addition, relative distributions in all three indices show that the median SES index value has shifted up and the distribution has become less polarized and is converging towards the middle. However, the convergence is larger from the upper tail than from the lower tail, which suggests that the improvement in SES has been slower for poorer households. The results also show persistent ethnic differences in SES with households of former Mozambican refugees being at a disadvantage. From a methodological perspective, the study findings demonstrate the comparability of the easy-to-compute absolute index to other SES indices constructed using more advanced statistical techniques in assessing household SES.

The Evolving Demographic and Health Transition in Four Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Evidence from Four Sites in the INDEPTH Network of Longitudinal Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems

This paper contributes evidence documenting the continued decline in all-cause mortality and changes in the cause of death distribution over time in four developing country populations in Africa and Asia. We present levels and trends in age-specific mortality (all-cause and cause-specific) from four demographic surveillance sites: Agincourt (South Africa), Navrongo (Ghana) in Africa; Filabavi (Vietnam), Matlab (Bangladesh) in Asia. We model mortality using discrete time event history analysis. This study illustrates how data from INDEPTH Network centers can provide a comparative, longitudinal examination of mortality patterns and the epidemiological transition. Health care systems need to be reconfigured to deal simultaneously with continuing challenges of communicable disease and increasing incidence of non-communicable diseases that require long-term care. In populations with endemic HIV, long-term care of HIV patients on ART will add to the chronic care needs of the community.

Exclusive Breastfeeding and Cognition, Executive Function, and Behavioural Disorders in Primary School-Aged Children in Rural South Africa: A Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) is associated with early child health; its longer-term benefits for child development remain inconclusive. We examine the associations between EBF, HIV exposure, and other maternal/child factors and the cognitive and emotional-behavioural development of children aged 7-11 y.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The Vertical Transmission Study (VTS) supported EBF in HIV-positive and HIV-negative women; between 2012 and 2014, HIV-negative VTS children (332 HIV exposed, 574 HIV unexposed) were assessed in terms of cognition (Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children Second Edition [KABC-II]), executive function (Developmental Neuropsychological Assessment Second Edition [NEPSY-II]), and emotional-behavioural functioning (parent-reported Child Behaviour Checklist, [CBCL]). We developed population means by combining the VTS sample with 629 same-aged HIV-negative children from the local demographic platform. For each outcome, we split the VTS sample into scores above or at/below each population mean and modelled each outcome using logistic regression analyses, overall and stratified by child sex. There was no demonstrated effect of EBF on overall cognitive functioning. EBF was associated with fewer conduct disorders overall (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.44 [95% CI 0.3-0.7], p ≤ 0.01), and there was weak evidence of better cognition in boys who had been exclusively breastfed for 2-5 mo versus ≤1 mo (Learning subscale aOR 2.07 [95% CI 1.0-4.3], p = 0.05). Other factors associated with better child cognition were higher maternal cognitive ability (aOR 1.43 [95% CI 1.1-1.9], p = 0.02, Sequential; aOR 1.74 [95% CI 1.3-2.4], p < 0.001, Planning subscales) and crèche attendance (aOR 1.96 [95% CI 1.1-3.5], p = 0.02, Sequential subscale). Factors positively associated with executive function were home stimulation (aOR 1.36 [95% CI 1.0-1.8], p = 0.04, Auditory Attention; aOR 1.35 [95% CI 1.0-1.8], p = 0.05, Response Set) and crèche (aOR 1.74 [95% CI 1.0-3.0], p = 0.05, Animal Sorting). Maternal mental health problems and parenting stress were associated with increased emotional-behavioural problems on the total CBCL (aOR 2.44 [95% CI 1.3-4.6], p = 0.01; aOR 7.04 [95% CI 4.2-11.9], p < 0.001, respectively). Maternal HIV status was not associated with any outcomes in the overall cohort. Limitations include the nonrandomised study design and lack of maternal mental health assessment at the child's birth.

CONCLUSIONS

EBF was associated with fewer than average conduct disorders and weakly associated with improved cognitive development in boys. Efforts to improve stimulation at home, reduce maternal stress, and enable crèche attendance are likely to improve executive function and emotional-behavioural development of children.

Social patterns and differentials in the fertility transition in the context of HIV/AIDS: evidence from population surveillance, rural South Africa, 1993 - 2013

BACKGROUND

Literature is limited on the effects of high prevalence HIV on fertility in the absence of treatment, and the effects of the introduction of sustained access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on fertility. We summarize fertility patterns in rural northeast South Africa over 21 years during dynamic social and epidemiological change.

METHODS

We use data for females aged 15-49 from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system (1993-2013). We use discrete time event history analysis to summarize patterns in the probability of any birth.

RESULTS

Overall fertility declined in 2001-2003, increased in 2004-2011, and then declined in 2012-2013. South Africans showed a similar pattern. Mozambicans showed a different pattern, with strong declines prior to 2003 before stalling during 2004-2007, and then continued fertility decline afterwards. There was an inverse gradient between fertility levels and household socioeconomic status. The gradient did not vary by time or nationality.

CONCLUSIONS

The fertility transition in rural South Africa shows a pattern of decline until the height of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, with a resulting stall until further decline in the context of ART rollout. Fertility patterns are not homogenous among groups.

Let's Talk about Sex, Maybe: Interviewers, Respondents, and Sexual Behavior Reporting in Rural South Africa

Researchers are often skeptical of sexual behavior surveys: respondents may lie or forget details of their intimate lives, and interviewers may exercise authority in how they capture responses. We use data from a 2010-2011 cross-sectional sexual behavior survey in rural South Africa to explore who says what to whom about their sexual lives. Results show an effect of fieldworker age across outcomes -- respondents report "safer", more "responsible" sexual behavior to older fieldworkers; and an effect of fieldworker sex -- men report more sexual partners to female fieldworkers. Understanding fieldworker effects on the production of sexual behavior survey data serves methodological and analytical goals.

The impacts of maternal mortality and cause of death on children's risk of dying in rural South Africa: evidence from a population based surveillance study (1992-2013)

BACKGROUND

Maternal mortality, the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and child survival are closely linked. This study contributes evidence on the impact of maternal death on children's risk of dying in an HIV-endemic population in rural South Africa.

METHODS

We used data for children younger than 10 years from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system (1992 - 2013). We used discrete time event history analysis to estimate children's risk of dying when they experienced a maternal death compared to children whose mother survived (N=3,740,992 child months). We also examined variation in risk due to cause of maternal death. We defined mother's survival status as early maternal death (during pregnancy, childbirth, or within 42 days of most recent childbirth or identified cause of death), late maternal death (within 43-365 days of most recent childbirth), any other death, and mothers who survived.

RESULTS

Children who experienced an early maternal death were at 15 times the risk of dying (RRR 15.2; 95% CI 8.3-27.9) compared to children whose mother survived. Children under 1 month whose mother died an early (p=0.002) maternal death were at increased risk of dying compared to older children. Children whose mothers died of an HIV/AIDS or TB-related early maternal death were at 29 times the risk of dying compared to children with surviving mothers (RRR 29.2; 95% CI 11.7-73.1). The risk of these children dying was significantly higher than those children whose mother died of a HIV/AIDS or TB-related non-maternal death (p=0.017).

CONCLUSIONS

This study contributes further evidence on the impact of a mother's death on child survival in a poor, rural setting with high HIV prevalence. The intersecting epidemics of maternal mortality and HIV/AIDS - especially in sub-Saharan Africa - have profound implications for maternal and child health and well-being. Such evidence can help guide public and primary health care practice and interventions.

Cardiometabolic disease risk and HIV status in rural South Africa: establishing a baseline

BACKGROUND

To inform health care and training, resource and research priorities, it is essential to establish how non-communicable disease risk factors vary by HIV-status in high HIV burden areas; and whether long-term anti-retroviral therapy (ART) plays a modifying role.

METHODS

As part of a cohort initiation, we conducted a baseline HIV/cardiometabolic risk factor survey in 2010-2011 using an age-sex stratified random sample of ages 15+ in rural South Africa. We modelled cardiometabolic risk factors and their associations by HIV-status and self-reported ART status for ages 18+ using sex-stratified logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Age-standardised HIV prevalence in women was 26% (95% CI 24-28%) and 19% (95% CI 17-21) in men. People with untreated HIV were less likely to have a high waist circumference in both women (OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.52-0.86) and men (OR 0.42; 95% CI 0.22-0.82). Untreated women were more likely to have low HDL and LDL, and treated women high triglycerides. Cardiometabolic risk factors increased with age except low HDL. The prevalence of hypertension was high (40% in women; 30% in men).

CONCLUSIONS

Sub-Saharan Africa is facing intersecting epidemics of HIV and hypertension. In this setting, around half the adult population require long-term care for at least one of HIV, hypertension or diabetes. Together with the adverse effects that HIV and its treatment have on lipids, this may have serious implications for the South African health care system. Monitoring of the interaction of HIV, ART use, and cardiometabolic disease is needed at both individual and population levels.

Validation, replication, and sensitivity testing of Heckman-type selection models to adjust estimates of HIV prevalence

A recent study using Heckman-type selection models to adjust for non-response in the Zambia 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) found a large correction in HIV prevalence for males. We aim to validate this finding, replicate the adjustment approach in other DHSs, apply the adjustment approach in an external empirical context, and assess the robustness of the technique to different adjustment approaches. We used 6 DHSs, and an HIV prevalence study from rural South Africa to validate and replicate the adjustment approach. We also developed an alternative, systematic model of selection processes and applied it to all surveys. We decomposed corrections from both approaches into rate change and age-structure change components. We are able to reproduce the adjustment approach for the 2007 Zambia DHS and derive results comparable with the original findings. We are able to replicate applying the approach in several other DHSs. The approach also yields reasonable adjustments for a survey in rural South Africa. The technique is relatively robust to how the adjustment approach is specified. The Heckman selection model is a useful tool for assessing the possibility and extent of selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates from sample surveys.

The unfolding counter-transition in rural South Africa: mortality and cause of death, 1994-2009

The HIV pandemic has led to dramatic increases and inequalities in adult mortality, and the diffusion of antiretroviral treatment, together with demographic and socioeconomic shifts in sub-Saharan Africa, has further changed mortality patterns. We describe all-cause and cause-specific mortality patterns in rural South Africa, analyzing data from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system from 1994 to 2009 for those aged 5 years and older. Mortality increased during that period, particularly after 2002 for ages 30-69. HIV/AIDS and TB deaths increased and recently plateaued at high levels in people under age 60. Noncommunicable disease deaths increased among those under 60, and recently also increased among those over 60. There was an inverse gradient between mortality and household SES, particularly for deaths due to HIV/AIDS and TB and noncommunicable diseases. A smaller and less consistent gradient emerged for deaths due to other communicable diseases. Deaths due to injuries remained an important mortality risk for males but did not vary by SES. Rural South Africa continues to have a high burden of HIV/AIDS and TB mortality while deaths from noncommunicable diseases have increased, and both of these cause-categories show social inequalities in mortality.

The Effect of Incarceration on Adult Male BMI Trajectories, United States, 1981-2006

The prevalence of obesity and overweight is socially patterned, with higher prevalence among women, racial/ethnic minorities, and those with lower socio-economic status. Contextual factors also affect obesity risk. However, an omitted factor has been incarceration, particularly since it disproportionately affects minorities. This study examines the effects of incarceration on adult male body mass index (BMI) in the United States over the life course, and whether effects vary by race/ethnicity and education. BMI trajectories were analyzed over age using growth curve models of men ages 18-49 from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth panel study. BMI was based on self-reported height/weight (kg/m2). Being currently incarcerated increased BMI, but the effect varied by race/ethnicity and education: blacks experienced the largest increases, while effects were lowered for men with more education than a high school diploma. Cumulative exposure to prison increased BMI for all groups. These results suggest a differential effect of incarceration on adult male BMI among some racial/ethnic-education minority groups. Particularly given that these groups are most commonly imprisoned, incarceration may help structure obesity disparities and disadvantage across the life course.

Household context and child mortality in rural South Africa: the effects of birth spacing, shared mortality, household composition and socio-economic status

BACKGROUND

Household characteristics are important influences on the risk of child death. However, little is known about this influence in HIV-endemic areas. We describe the effects of household characteristics on children's risk of dying in rural South Africa.

METHODS

We use data describing the mortality of children younger than 5 years living in the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system study population in rural northeast South Africa during the period 1994-2008. Using discrete time event history analysis we estimate children's probability of dying by child characteristics and household composition (other children and adults other than parents) (N=924,818 child-months), and household socio-economic status (N=501,732 child-months).

RESULTS

Children under 24 months of age whose subsequent sibling was born within 11 months experience increased odds of dying (OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.1-5.7). Children also experience increased odds of dying in the period 6 months (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.2-3.6), 3-5 months (OR 3.0; 95% CI 1.5-5.9), and 2 months (OR 11.8; 95% CI 7.6-18.3) before another household child dies. The odds of dying remain high at the time of another child's death (OR 11.7; 95% CI 6.3-21.7) and for the 2 months following (OR 4.0; 95% CI 1.9-8.6). Having a related but non-parent adult aged 20-59 years in the household reduces the odds (OR 0.6; 95% CI 0.5-0.8). There is an inverse relationship between a child's odds of dying and household socio-economic status.

CONCLUSIONS

This detailed household profile from a poor rural setting where HIV infection is endemic indicates that children are at high risk of dying when another child is very ill or has recently died. Short birth intervals and additional children in the household are further risk factors. Presence of a related adult is protective, as is higher socio-economic status. Such evidence can inform primary health care practice and facilitate targeting of community health worker efforts, especially when covering defined catchment areas.

Prevalence of HIV among those 15 and older in rural South Africa

A greater knowledge of the burden of HIV in rural areas of Southern Africa is needed, especially among older adults. We conducted a cross-sectional biomarker survey in the rural South African Agincourt Health and Sociodemographic Surveillance site in 2010–2011 and estimated HIV prevalence and risk factors. Using an age–sex stratified random sample of ages 15 +, a total of 5037 (65.7%) of a possible 7662 individuals were located and 4362 (86.6%) consented to HIV testing. HIV prevalence was high (19.4%) and characterized by a large gender gap (10.6% for men and 23.9% for women). Rates peaked at 45.3% among men and 46.1% among women – both at ages 35–39. Compared with a similar study in the rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, peak prevalence occurred at later ages, and HIV prevalence was higher among older adults – with rates above 15% for men and 10% for women through to age 70. High prevalence continues to characterize Southern Africa, and recent evidence confirms that older adults cannot be excluded from policy considerations. The high prevalence among older adults suggests likely HIV infection at older ages. Prevention activities need to expand to older adults to reduce new infections. Treatment will be complicated by increased risk of noncommunicable diseases and by increasing numbers of older people living with HIV.