The global distribution and the risk prediction of relapsing fever group Borrelia: a data review with modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

The recent discovery of emerging relapsing fever group Borrelia (RFGB) species, such as Borrelia miyamotoi, poses a growing threat to public health. However, the global distribution and associated risk burden of these species remain uncertain. We aimed to map the diversity, distribution, and potential infection risk of RFGB.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, GenBank, CNKI, and eLibrary from Jan 1, 1874, to Dec 31, 2022, for published articles without language restriction to extract distribution data for RFGB detection in vectors, animals, and humans, and clinical information about human patients. Only articles documenting RFGB infection events were included in this study, and data for RFGB detection in vectors, animals, or humans were composed into a dataset. We used three machine learning algorithms (boosted regression trees, random forest, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression) to assess the environmental, ecoclimatic, biological, and socioeconomic factors associated with the occurrence of four major RFGB species: Borrelia miyamotoi, Borrelia lonestari, Borrelia crocidurae, and Borrelia hermsii; and mapped their worldwide risk level.

FINDINGS

We retrieved 13 959 unique studies, among which 697 met the selection criteria and were used for data extraction. 29 RFGB species have been recorded worldwide, of which 27 have been identified from 63 tick species, 12 from 61 wild animals, and ten from domestic animals. 16 RFGB species caused human infection, with a cumulative count of 26 583 cases reported from Jan 1, 1874, to Dec 31, 2022. Borrelia recurrentis (17 084 cases) and Borrelia persica (2045 cases) accounted for the highest proportion of human infection. B miyamotoi showed the widest distribution among all RFGB, with a predicted environmentally suitable area of 6·92 million km2, followed by B lonestari (1·69 million km2), B crocidurae (1·67 million km2), and B hermsii (1·48 million km2). The habitat suitability index of vector ticks and climatic factors, such as the annual mean temperature, have the most significant effect among all predictive models for the geographical distribution of the four major RFGB species.

INTERPRETATION

The predicted high-risk regions are considerably larger than in previous reports. Identification, surveillance, and diagnosis of RFGB infections should be prioritised in high-risk areas, especially within low-income regions.

FUNDING

National Key Research and Development Program of China.

Epidemiological characteristics and antibody kinetics of elderly population with booster vaccination following both Omicron BA.5 and XBB waves in China

After the termination of zero-COVID-19 policy, the populace in China has experienced both Omicron BA.5 and XBB waves. Considering the poor antibody responses and severe outcomes observed among the elderly following infection, we conducted a longitudinal investigation to examine the epidemiological characteristics and antibody kinetics among 107 boosted elderly participants following the Omicron BA.5 and XBB waves. We observed that 96 participants (89.7%) were infected with Omicron BA.5, while 59 (55.1%) participants were infected with Omicron XBB. Notably, 52 participants (48.6%) experienced dual infections of both Omicron BA.5 and XBB. The proportion of symptomatic cases appeared to decrease following the XBB wave (18.6%) compared to that after the BA.5 wave (59.3%). Omicron BA.5 breakthrough infection induced lower neutralizing antibody titers against XBB.1.5, BA.2.86, and JN.1, while reinfection with Omicron XBB broadened the antibody responses against all measured Omicron subvariants and may alleviate the wild type-vaccination induced immune imprinting. Boosted vaccination type and comorbidities were the significant factors associated with antibody responses. Updated vaccines based on emerging severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants are needed to control the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic in the elderly.

Mapping global zoonotic niche and interregional transmission risk of monkeypox: a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Outbreaks of monkeypox have been ongoing in non-endemic countries since May 2022. A thorough assessment of its global zoonotic niche and potential transmission risk is lacking.

METHODS

We established an integrated database on global monkeypox virus (MPXV) occurrence during 1958 - 2022. Phylogenetic analysis was performed to examine the evolution of MPXV and effective reproductive number (Rt) was estimated over time to examine the dynamic of MPXV transmissibility. The potential ecological drivers of zoonotic transmission and inter-regional transmission risks of MPXV were examined.

RESULTS

As of 24 July 2022, a total of 49 432 human patients with MPXV infections have been reported in 78 countries. Based on 525 whole genome sequences, two main clades of MPXV were formed, of which Congo Basin clade has a higher transmissibility than West African clade before the 2022-monkeypox, estimated by the overall Rt (0.81 vs. 0.56), and the latter significantly increased in the recent decade. Rt of 2022-monkeypox varied from 1.14 to 4.24 among the 15 continuously epidemic countries outside Africa, with the top three as Peru (4.24, 95% CI: 2.89-6.71), Brazil (3.45, 95% CI: 1.62-7.00) and the United States (2.44, 95% CI: 1.62-3.60). The zoonotic niche of MPXV was associated with the distributions of Graphiurus lorraineus and Graphiurus crassicaudatus, the richness of Rodentia, and four ecoclimatic indicators. Besides endemic areas in Africa, more areas of South America, the Caribbean States, and Southeast and South Asia are ecologically suitable for the occurrence of MPXV once the virus has invaded. Most of Western Europe has a high-imported risk of monkeypox from Western Africa, whereas France and the United Kingdom have a potential imported risk of Congo Basin clade MPXV from Central Africa. Eleven of the top 15 countries with a high risk of MPXV importation from the main countries of 2022-monkeypox outbreaks are located at Europe with the highest risk in Italy, Ireland and Poland.

CONCLUSIONS

The suitable ecological niche for MPXV is not limited to Africa, and the transmissibility of MPXV was significantly increased during the 2022-monkeypox outbreaks. The imported risk is higher in Europe, both from endemic areas and currently epidemic countries. Future surveillance and targeted intervention programs are needed in its high-risk areas informed by updated prediction.

Prevalence and Etiological Characteristics of Norovirus Infection in China: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Norovirus is a common cause of sporadic cases and outbreaks of gastroenteritis worldwide, although its prevalence and the dominant genotypes responsible for gastroenteritis outbreaks remain obscure. A systematic review was conducted on norovirus infection in China between January 2009 and March 2021. A meta-analysis and beta-binomial regression model were used to explore the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of norovirus infection and the potential factors contributing to the attack rate of the norovirus outbreaks, respectively. A total of 1132 articles with 155,865 confirmed cases were included, with a pooled positive test rate of 11.54% among 991,786 patients with acute diarrhea and a pooled attack rate of 6.73% in 500 norovirus outbreaks. GII.4 was the predominant genotype in both the etiological surveillance and outbreaks, followed by GII.3 in the etiological surveillance, and GII.17 in the outbreaks, with the proportion of recombinant genotypes increasing in recent years. A higher attack rate in the norovirus outbreaks was associated with age group (older adults), settings (nurseries, primary schools, etc.) and region (North China). The nation-wide pooled positive rate in the etiological surveillance of norovirus is lower than elsewhere in the global population, while the dominant genotypes are similar in both the etiological surveillance and the outbreak investigations. This study contributes to the understanding of norovirus infection with different genotypes in China. The prevention and control of norovirus outbreaks during the cold season should be intensified, with special attention paid to and enhanced surveillance performed in nurseries, schools and nursing homes from November to March.

Infection and co-infection patterns of community-acquired pneumonia in patients of different ages in China from 2009 to 2020: a national surveillance study

BACKGROUND

Severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) is associated with a substantial number of hospitalisations and deaths worldwide. Infection or co-infection patterns, along with their age dependence and clinical effects are poorly understood. We aimed to explore the causal and epidemiological characteristics by age, to better describe patterns of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and their association with severe disease.

METHODS

National surveillance of CAP was conducted through a network of hospitals in 30 provinces in China from 2009-20 inclusive. Patients with CAP were included if they had evidence of acute respiratory tract, had evidence of pneumonia by chest radiography, diagnosis of pneumonia within 24 h of hospital admission, and resided in the study catchment area. For the enrolled patients with CAP, nasopharyngeal and oral swabs were taken and tested for eight viral pathogens; and blood, urine, or expectorated sputum was tested for six bacterial pathogens. Clinical outcomes, including SCAP, were investigated with respect to age and patterns of infections or co-infections by performing binary logistic regression and multivariate analysis.

FINDINGS

Between January, 2009, and December, 2020, 18 807 patients with CAP (3771 [20·05%] with SCAP) were enrolled. For both children (aged ≤5 years) and older adults (aged >60 years), a higher overall rate of viral and bacterial infections, as well as viral-bacterial co-infections were seen in patients with SCAP than in patients with non-SCAP. For adults (aged 18-60 years), however, only a higher rate of bacterial-bacterial co-infection was observed. The most frequent pathogens associated with SCAP were respiratory syncytial virus (RSV; 21·30%) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (12·61%) among children, and influenza virus (10·94%) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (15·37%) among older adults. Positive rates of detection of most of the tested pathogens decreased during 2020 compared with the 2009-19 period, except for RSV, P aeruginosa, and Klebsiella pneumoniae. Multivariate analyses showed SCAP was significantly associated with infection with human adenovirus, human rhinovirus, K pneumoniae, or co-infection of RSV and Haemophilus influenzae or RSV and Staphylococcus aureus in children and adolescents (aged <18 years), and significantly associated with infection with P aeruginosa, K pneumoniae, or S pneumoniae, or co-infection with P aeruginosa and K pneumoniae in adults (aged ≥18 years).

INTERPRETATION

Both prevalence and infection pattern of respiratory pathogens differed between patients with SCAP and patients with non-SCAP in an age-dependent manner. These findings suggest potential advantages to age-related strategies for vaccine schedules, as well as clinical diagnosis, treatment, and therapy.

FUNDING

China Mega-Project on Infectious Disease Prevention and The National Natural Science Funds of China.

TRANSLATION

For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Dual seasonal pattern for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and its potential determinants in China

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) continued to affect human health across Eurasia, which complicated by climate change has posed a challenge for the disease prevention measures. Nation-wide surveillance data of HFRS cases were collected during 2008-2020.The seasonality and epidemiological features were presented by combining the HFRS incidence and the endemic types data. Factors potentially involved in affecting incidence and shaping disease seasonality were investigated by generalized additive mixed model, distributed lag nonlinear model and multivariate meta-analysis. A total of 76 cities that reported totally 111,054 cases were analyzed. Three endemic types were determined, among them the Type I cities (Hantaan virus-dominant) were related to higher incidence level, showing one spike every year in Autumn-Winter season; Type II (Seoul virus-dominant) cities were related to lower incidence, showing one spike in Spring, while Type III (Hantaan/Seoul-mixed type) showed dual peaks with incidence lying between. Persistently heavy rainfall had significantly negative influence on HFRS incidence in Hantaan virus-dominant endemic area, while a significantly opposite effect was identified when continuously heavy rainfall induced floods, where temperature and relative humidity affected HFRS incidence via an approximately parabolic or linear manner, however few or no such effects was shown in Seoul virus-dominant endemic areas, which was more vulnerable to temperature variation. Dual seasonal pattern of HFRS was depended on the dominant genotypes of hantavirus, and impact of climate on HFRS was greater in Hantaan virus-dominant endemic areas, than in Seoul virus-dominant areas.

Mapping the risk distribution of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in China from 1986 to 2020: a geospatial modelling analysis

Lyme borreliosis, recognized as one of the most important tick-borne diseases worldwide, has been increasing in incidence and spatial extent. Currently, there are few geographic studies about the distribution of Lyme borreliosis risk across China. Here we established a nationwide database that involved Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (B. burgdorferi) detected in humans, vectors, and animals in China. The eco-environmental factors that shaped the spatial pattern of B. burgdorferi were identified by using a two-stage boosted regression tree model and the model-predicted risks were mapped. During 1986−2020, a total of 2,584 human confirmed cases were reported in 25 provinces. Borrelia burgdorferi was detected from 35 tick species with the highest positive rates in Ixodes granulatus, Hyalomma asiaticum, Ixodes persulcatus, and Haemaphysalis concinna ranging 20.1%−24.0%. Thirteen factors including woodland, NDVI, rainfed cropland, and livestock density were determined as important drivers for the probability of B. burgdorferi occurrence based on the stage 1 model. The stage 2 model identified ten factors including temperature seasonality, NDVI, and grasslands that were the main determinants used to distinguish areas at high or low-medium risk of B. burgdorferi, interpreted as potential occurrence areas within the area projected by the stage 1 model. The projected high-risk areas were not only concentrated in high latitude areas, but also were distributed in middle and low latitude areas. These high-resolution evidence-based risk maps of B. burgdorferi was first created in China and can help as a guide to future surveillance and control and help inform disease burden and infection risk estimates.

Mapping the viruses belonging to the order Bunyavirales in China

BACKGROUND

Viral pathogens belonging to the order Bunyavirales pose a continuous background threat to global health, but the fact remains that they are usually neglected and their distribution is still ambiguously known. We aim to map the geographical distribution of Bunyavirales viruses and assess the environmental suitability and transmission risk of major Bunyavirales viruses in China.

METHODS

We assembled data on all Bunyavirales viruses detected in humans, animals and vectors from multiple sources, to update distribution maps of them across China. In addition, we predicted environmental suitability at the 10 km × 10 km pixel level by applying boosted regression tree models for two important Bunyavirales viruses, including Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV). Based on model-projected risks and air travel volume, the imported risk of RVFV was also estimated from its endemic areas to the cities in China.

RESULTS

Here we mapped all 89 species of Bunyavirales viruses in China from January 1951 to June 2021. Nineteen viruses were shown to infect humans, including ten species first reported as human infections. A total of 447,848 cases infected with Bunyavirales viruses were reported, and hantaviruses, Dabie bandavirus and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) had the severest disease burden. Model-predicted maps showed that Xinjiang and southwestern Yunnan had the highest environmental suitability for CCHFV occurrence, mainly related to Hyalomma asiaticum presence, while southern China had the highest environmental suitability for Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) transmission all year round, mainly driven by livestock density, mean precipitation in the previous month. We further identified three cities including Guangzhou, Beijing and Shanghai, with the highest imported risk of RVFV potentially from Egypt, South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Kenya.

CONCLUSIONS

A variety of Bunyavirales viruses are widely distributed in China, and the two major neglected Bunyavirales viruses including CCHFV and RVFV, both have the potential for outbreaks in local areas of China. Our study can help to promote the understanding of risk distribution and disease burden of Bunyavirales viruses in China, and the risk maps of CCHFV and RVFV occurrence are crucial to the targeted surveillance and control, especially in seasons and locations at high risk.

The role of selenium in severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome: an integrative analysis of surveillance data and clinical data

OBJECTIVES

Selenium deficiency can be associated with increased susceptibility to some viral infections and even more severe diseases. In this study, we aimed to examine whether this association applies to severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS).

METHOD

An observational study was conducted based on the data of 13,305 human SFTS cases reported in mainland China from 2010 to 2020. The associations among incidence, case fatality rate of SFTS, and crop selenium concentration at the county level were explored. The selenium level in a cohort of patients with SFTS was tested, and its relationship with clinical outcomes was evaluated.

RESULTS

The association between selenium-deficient crops and the incidence rate of SFTS was confirmed by multivariate Poisson analysis, with an estimated incidence rate ratio (IRR, 95% confidence interval [CI]) of 4.549 (4.215-4.916) for moderate selenium-deficient counties and 16.002 (14.706-17.431) for severe selenium-deficient counties. In addition, a higher mortality rate was also observed in severe selenium-deficient counties with an IRR of 1.409 (95% CI: 1.061-1.909). A clinical study on 120 patients with SFTS showed an association between serum selenium deficiency and severe SFTS (odds ratio, OR: 2.94; 95% CI: 1.00-8.67) or fatal SFTS (OR: 7.55; 95% CI: 1.14-50.16).

CONCLUSION

Selenium deficiency is associated with increased susceptibility to SFTS and poor clinical outcomes.

Mapping the Distributions of Mosquitoes and Mosquito-Borne Arboviruses in China

The geographic expansion of mosquitos is associated with a rising frequency of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) worldwide. We collected occurrence locations and times of mosquito species, mosquito-borne arboviruses, and MBDs in the mainland of China in 1954−2020. We mapped the spatial distributions of mosquitoes and arboviruses at the county level, and we used machine learning algorithms to assess contributions of ecoclimatic, socioenvironmental, and biological factors to the spatial distributions of 26 predominant mosquito species and two MBDs associated with high disease burden. Altogether, 339 mosquito species and 35 arboviruses were mapped at the county level. Culex tritaeniorhynchus is found to harbor the highest variety of arboviruses (19 species), followed by Anopheles sinensis (11) and Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus (9). Temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, and mammalian richness were the three most important contributors to the spatial distributions of most of the 26 predominant mosquito species. The model-predicted suitable habitats are 60–664% larger in size than what have been observed, indicating the possibility of severe under-detection. The spatial distribution of major mosquito species in China is likely to be under-estimated by current field observations. More active surveillance is needed to investigate the mosquito species in specific areas where investigation is missing but model-predicted probability is high.

Changes in notifiable infectious disease incidence in China during the COVID-19 pandemic

Nationwide nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been effective at mitigating the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), but their broad impact on other diseases remains under-investigated. Here we report an ecological analysis comparing the incidence of 31 major notifiable infectious diseases in China in 2020 to the average level during 2014-2019, controlling for temporal phases defined by NPI intensity levels. Respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal or enteroviral diseases declined more than sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases and vector-borne or zoonotic diseases. Early pandemic phases with more stringent NPIs were associated with greater reductions in disease incidence. Non-respiratory diseases, such as hand, foot and mouth disease, rebounded substantially towards the end of the year 2020 as the NPIs were relaxed. Statistical modeling analyses confirm that strong NPIs were associated with a broad mitigation effect on communicable diseases, but resurgence of non-respiratory diseases should be expected when the NPIs, especially restrictions of human movement and gathering, become less stringent.

Broad Impacts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Acute Respiratory Infections in China: An Observational Study

BACKGROUND

To combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented worldwide, which impacted a broad spectrum of acute respiratory infections (ARIs).

METHODS

Etiologically diagnostic data from 142 559 cases with ARIs, who were tested for 8 viral pathogens (influenza virus [IFV], respiratory syncytial virus [RSV], human parainfluenza virus [HPIV], human adenovirus [HAdV], human metapneumovirus [HMPV], human coronavirus [HCoV], human bocavirus [HBoV], and human rhinovirus [HRV]) between 2012 and 2021, were analyzed to assess the changes in respiratory infections in China during the first COVID-19 pandemic year compared with pre-pandemic years.

RESULTS

Test-positive rates of all respiratory viruses decreased during 2020, compared to the average levels during 2012-2019, with changes ranging from -17.2% for RSV to -87.6% for IFV. Sharp decreases mostly occurred between February and August when massive NPIs remained active, although HRV rebounded to the historical level during the summer. While IFV and HMPV were consistently suppressed year-round, RSV, HPIV, HCoV, HRV, and HBoV resurged and went beyond historical levels during September 2020-January 2021, after NPIs were largely relaxed and schools reopened. Resurgence was more prominent among children <18 years and in northern China. These observations remain valid after accounting for seasonality and long-term trend of each virus.

CONCLUSIONS

Activities of respiratory viral infections were reduced substantially in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, and massive NPIs were likely the main driver. Lifting of NPIs can lead to resurgence of viral infections, particularly in children.

The changing pattern of enteric pathogen infections in China during the COVID-19 pandemic: a nation-wide observational study

Background

Non pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) including hand washing directives were implemented in China and worldwide to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, which are likely to have had impacted a broad spectrum of enteric pathogen infections.

Methods

Etiologically diagnostic data from 45 937 and 67 395 patients with acute diarrhea between 2012 and 2020, who were tested for seven viral pathogens and 13 bacteria respectively, were analyzed to assess the changes of enteric pathogen infections in China during the first COVID-19 pandemic year compared to pre-pandemic years.

Findings

Test positive rates of all enteric viruses decreased during 2020, compared to the average levels during 2012−2019, with a relative decrease of 71•75% for adenovirus, 58•76% for norovirus, 53•50% for rotavirus A, and 72•07% for the combination of other four uncommon viruses. In general, a larger reduction of positive rate in viruses was seen among adults than pediatric patients. A rebound of rotavirus A was seen after September 2020 in North China rather than South China. Test positive rates of bacteria decreased during 2020, compared to the average levels during 2012−2019, excepting for nontyphoidal Salmonella and Campylobacter coli with 66•53% and 90•48% increase respectively. This increase was larger for pediatric patients than for adult patients.

Interpretation

The activity of enteric pathogens changed profoundly alongside the NPIs implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic in China. Greater reductions of the test positive rates were found for almost all enteric viruses than for bacteria among acute diarrhea patients, with further large differences by age and geography. Lifting of NPIs will lead to resurgence of enteric pathogen infections, particularly in children whose immunity may not have been developed and/or waned.

Funding

China Mega-Project on Infectious Disease Prevention; National Natural Science Funds.