Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species’ life histories. Here, we use long‐term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow‐fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long‐run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.

Context-dependent fitness costs of reproduction despite stable body mass costs in an Arctic herbivore

The cost of reproduction on demographic rates is often assumed to operate through changing body condition. Several studies have found that reproduction depresses body mass more if the current conditions are severe, such as high population densities or adverse weather, than under benign environmental conditions. However, few studies have investigated the association between the fitness components and body mass costs of reproduction. Using 25 years of individual-based capture-recapture data from Svalbard reindeer Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus, we built a novel Bayesian state-space model that jointly estimated interannual change in mass, annual reproductive success and survival, while accounting for incomplete observations. The model allowed us to partition the differential effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on both non-reproductive mass change and the body mass cost of reproduction, and to quantify their consequences on demographic rates. Contrary to our expectation, the body mass cost of reproduction (mean = -5.8 kg) varied little between years (CV = 0.08), whereas the between-year variation in body mass changes, that were independent of the previous year's reproductive state, varied substantially (CV = 0.4) in relation to autumn temperature and the amount of rain-on-snow in winter. This body mass loss led to a cost of reproduction on the next reproduction, which was amplified by the same environmental covariates, from a 10% reduction in reproductive success in benign years, to a 50% reduction in harsh years. The reproductive mass loss also resulted in a small reduction in survival. Our results show how demographic costs of reproduction, driven by interannual fluctuations in individual body condition, result from the balance between body mass costs of reproduction and body mass changes that are independent of previous reproductive state. We illustrate how a strong context-dependent fitness cost of reproduction can occur, despite a relatively fixed body mass cost of reproduction. This suggests that female reindeer display a very conservative energy allocation strategy, either aborting their reproductive attempt at an early stage or weaning at a relatively constant cost. Such a strategy might be common in species living in a highly stochastic and food limited environment.

Distance sampling of duikers in the rainforest: Dealing with transect avoidance

Bushmeat is a major source of protein and income in tropical regions but is often over-harvested. A better monitoring of bushmeat stocks could help achieve sustainability. We used a combination of simulations and transect survey data collected from blue duikers (Philantomba monticola) in the Lomako wildlife reserve, Democratic Republic of the Congo, to investigate the use of transect-based distance sampling to monitor bushmeat stocks. The comparison of dung piles and direct observations of duikers evidenced that animals avoided both the transects in the absence of observers, and the observers themselves. This type of behavioural response appeared common in a literature survey. It causes a negative bias in the estimates of population densities from the standard distance sampling methodology. This negative bias would lead to over-pessimistic predictions of population viability, especially if the behavioural response is more intense in the locations where the animals are hunted. In turn, this would lead to excessively conservative management recommendations. To correct for the effect of the behavioural response of the animals to either the transects or the observers, we recommend recording both the forward and perpendicular distances to the observers (2D distance sampling), not just the perpendicular distance. We also recommend multiple-observer protocols. As a cautionary note, we also demonstrate a scenario where the intensity of the behavioural response is too high to reliably estimate the abundance of the population. As a perspective, we outline the general principles of a local stakeholder-based program combining distance sampling with less intensive types of ecological indicators to monitor wildlife populations.

A negative association between horn length and survival in a weakly dimorphic ungulate

While all models of sexual selection assume that the development and expression of enlarged secondary sexual traits are costly, males with larger ornaments or weapons generally show greater survival or longevity. These studies have mostly been performed in species with high sexual size dimorphism, subject to intense sexual selection. Here, we examined the relationships between horn growth and several survival metrics in the weakly dimorphic Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica). In this unhunted population living at high density, males and females were able to grow long horns without any apparent costs in terms of longevity. However, we found a negative relationship between horn growth and survival during prime age in males. This association reduces the potential evolutionary consequences of trophy hunting in male chamois. We also found that females with long horns tended to have lower survival at old ages. Our results illustrate the contrasting conclusions that may be drawn when different survival metrics are used in analyses. The ability to detect trade-off between the expression of male secondary sexual traits and survival may depend more on environmental conditions experienced by the population than on the strength of sexual selection.

The two oxpecker species reveal the role of movement rates and foraging intensity in species coexistence

The two Buphagus oxpecker species are specialized passerines that forage for ticks and other food particles on the body of ungulates in the African savannahs. One of their intriguing features is their ability to coexist despite sharing the same, specialized diet. Using co-occurrence data (photographs of giraffes with oxpeckers on them) and approximate Bayesian computing, we demonstrate that yellow-billed oxpeckers changed host faster than red-billed oxpeckers and appeared to displace red-billed oxpeckers from preferred giraffe body parts. Conversely, red-billed oxpeckers exhibited a fuller use of each host and displaced yellow-billed oxpeckers from distal giraffe body parts. These findings highlight that the partition of giraffe hosts in two separate niches was only part of the coexistence story in this species pair. More precisely, the oxpeckers shared the resource by exploiting it at different rates. They engaged in different trade-offs between giving-up density, patch discovery rate and competitor displacement ability. They illustrate the importance of the time frame of interactions.

Silver spoon effects are constrained under extreme adult environmental conditions

Early-life environmental conditions may generate cohort differences in individual fitness, subsequently affecting population growth rates. Three, nonmutually exclusive hypotheses predict the nature of these fitness differences: (1) silver spoon effects, where individuals born in good conditions perform better across the range of adult environments; (2) the "environmental saturation" hypothesis, where fitness differences only occur in intermediate adult environmental conditions; and (3) the "environmental matching" or "predictive adaptive response" (PAR) hypothesis, where fitness is highest when adult environmental conditions match those experienced in early life. We quantified the context-dependent effect of early-life environment on subsequent reproductive success, survival, and population growth rate (λ) of Svalbard reindeer, and explored how well it was explained by the three hypotheses. We found that good early-life conditions increased reproductive success compared to poor early-life conditions, but only when experiencing intermediate adult environmental conditions. This is the first example of what appears to be both "beneficial" and "detrimental environmental saturation" in a natural system. Despite weak early-life effects on survival, cohorts experiencing good early-life conditions contributed to higher population growth rates, when simulating realistic variation in adult environmental conditions. Our results show how the combination of a highly variable environment and biological constraints on fitness components can suppress silver spoon effects at both extremes of the adult environmental gradient.

Does grandparental care select for a longer lifespan in non-human mammals?

Several non-human mammalian species provide grandparental care but remain fertile until death, unlike our species. This might call into question the ‘grandmother hypothesis’ that the ability to provide grandparental care, associated with an increase in the cost of breeding with age, promote the early cessation of reproduction. Here, we analyse individual longevity records from non-human mammals to determine whether the few species with grandparental care also stand out among mammals in terms of age-specific survival patterns. Indeed, females of species with grandparental care lived on average 43% longer than males (range: 24–61%), compared with 12% in other polygynous species (95% quantile: −8 to 30%), because of low baseline mortality rates and delayed onset of actuarial senescence. We discuss this finding with respect to the ‘stopping early’ vs. ‘living longer’ debate. We review the role of the environmental context and of the decrease in offspring performance with maternal age (Lansing effect). We formalize the idea of a continuum of parental–grandparental allocation instead of a discrete switch to grandparental care only. Lastly, we suggest that the evolution of menopause has been driven by different forces in different species.

Living on the edge: Was demographic weakness the cause of Neanderthal demise?

The causes of disappearance of the Neanderthals, the only human population living in Europe before the arrival of Homo sapiens, have been debated for decades by the scientific community. Different hypotheses have been advanced to explain this demise, such as cognitive, adaptive and cultural inferiority of Neanderthals. Here, we investigate the disappearance of Neanderthals by examining the extent of demographic changes needed over a period of 10,000 years (yrs) to lead to their extinction. In regard to such fossil populations, we inferred demographic parameters from present day and past hunter-gatherer populations, and from bio-anthropological rules. We used demographic modeling and simulations to identify the set of plausible demographic parameters of the Neanderthal population compatible with the observed dynamics, and to explore the circumstances under which they might have led to the disappearance of Neanderthals. A slight (<4%) but continuous decrease in the fertility rate of younger Neanderthal women could have had a significant impact on these dynamics, and could have precipitated their demise. Our results open the way to non-catastrophic events as plausible explanations for Neanderthal extinction.

A local evaluation of the individual state-space to scale up Bayesian spatial capture-recapture

Spatial capture-recapture models (SCR) are used to estimate animal density and to investigate a range of problems in spatial ecology that cannot be addressed with traditional nonspatial methods. Bayesian approaches in particular offer tremendous flexibility for SCR modeling. Increasingly, SCR data are being collected over very large spatial extents making analysis computational intensive, sometimes prohibitively so. To mitigate the computational burden of large-scale SCR models, we developed an improved formulation of the Bayesian SCR model that uses local evaluation of the individual state-space (LESS). Based on prior knowledge about a species' home range size, we created square evaluation windows that restrict the spatial domain in which an individual's detection probability (detector window) and activity center location (AC window) are estimated. We used simulations and empirical data analyses to assess the performance and bias of SCR with LESS. LESS produced unbiased estimates of SCR parameters when the AC window width was ≥5σ (σ: the scale parameter of the half-normal detection function), and when the detector window extended beyond the edge of the AC window by 2σ. Importantly, LESS considerably decreased the computation time needed for fitting SCR models. In our simulations, LESS increased the computation speed of SCR models up to 57-fold. We demonstrate the power of this new approach by mapping the density of an elusive large carnivore-the wolverine (Gulo gulo)-with an unprecedented resolution and across the species' entire range in Norway (> 200,000 km2). Our approach helps overcome a major computational obstacle to population and landscape-level SCR analyses. The LESS implementation in a Bayesian framework makes the customization and fitting of SCR accessible for practitioners working at scales that are relevant for conservation and management.

Biased estimation of trends in cohort effects: the problems with age-period-cohort models in ecology

Environmental variation can generate life-long similarities among individuals born in the same breeding event, so-called cohort effects. Studies of cohort effects have to account for the potentially confounding effects of current conditions (observation year) and age of individuals. However, estimation of such models is hampered by inherent collinearity, as age is the difference between observation year (period) and cohort year. The difficulties of separating linear trends in any of the three variables in Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models are the subject of ongoing debate in social sciences and medicine but have remained unnoticed in ecology. After reviewing the use of APC models, we investigate the consequences of model specification on the estimation of cohort effects, using both simulated data and empirical data from a long-term individual-based study of reindeer in Svalbard. We demonstrate that APC models are highly sensitive to the model's treatment of age, period and cohort, which may generate spurious temporal trends in cohort effects. Avoiding grouping ages and using environmental covariates believed to be drivers of temporal variation reduces the APC identification problem. Nonetheless, ecologists should use caution, given that the specification issues in APC models may have substantial impacts on estimated effect sizes and therefore conclusions.

The influence of weather conditions during gestation on life histories in a wild Arctic ungulate

The internal predictive adaptive response (internal PAR) hypothesis predicts that individuals born in poor conditions should start to reproduce earlier if they are likely to have reduced performance in later life. However, whether this is the case remains unexplored in wild populations. Here, we use longitudinal data from a long-term study of Svalbard reindeer to examine age-related changes in adult female life-history responses to environmental conditions experienced in utero as indexed by rain-on-snow (ROS_utero). We show that females experiencing high ROS_utero had reduced reproductive success only from 7 years of age, independent of early reproduction. These individuals were able to maintain the same annual reproductive success between 2 and 6 years as phenotypically superior conspecifics that experienced low ROS_utero Young females born after high ROS_utero engage in reproductive events at lower body mass (about 2.5 kg less) than those born after low ROS_utero The mean fitness of females that experienced poor environmental conditions in early life was comparable with that of females exposed to good environmental conditions in early life. These results are consistent with the idea of internal PAR and suggest that the life-history responses to early-life conditions can buffer the delayed effects of weather on population dynamics.

Regulated hunting re-shapes the life history of brown bears

Management of large carnivores is among the most controversial topics in natural resource administration. Regulated hunting is a centrepiece of many carnivore management programmes and, although a number of hunting effects on population dynamics, body-size distributions and life history in other wildlife have been observed, its effects on life history and demography of large carnivores remain poorly documented. We report results from a 30-year study of brown bears (Ursus arctos) analysed using an integrated hierarchical approach. Our study revealed that regulated hunting has severely disrupted the interplay between age-specific survival and environmental factors, altered the consequences of reproductive strategies, and changed reproductive values and life expectancy in a population of the world's largest terrestrial carnivore. Protection and sustainable management have led to numerical recovery of several populations of large carnivores, but managers and policymakers should be aware of the extent to which regulated hunting may be influencing vital rates, thereby reshaping the life history of apex predators.

Spatial memory shapes density dependence in population dynamics

Most population dynamics studies assume that individuals use space uniformly, and thus mix well spatially. In numerous species, however, individuals do not move randomly, but use spatial memory to visit renewable resource patches repeatedly. To understand the extent to which memory-based foraging movement may affect density-dependent population dynamics through its impact on competition, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based movement model where reproduction and death are functions of foraging efficiency. We compared the dynamics of populations of with- and without-memory individuals. We showed that memory-based movement leads to a higher population size at equilibrium, to a higher depletion of the environment, to a marked discrepancy between the global (i.e. measured at the population level) and local (i.e. measured at the individual level) intensities of competition, and to a nonlinear density dependence. These results call for a deeper investigation of the impact of individual movement strategies and cognitive abilities on population dynamics.

Socially mediated effects of climate change decrease survival of hibernating Alpine marmots

In the context of global change, an increasing challenge is to understand the interaction between weather variables and life histories. Species-specific life histories should condition the way climate influences population dynamics, particularly those that are associated with environmental constraints, such as lifestyles like hibernation and sociality. However, the influence of lifestyle in the response of organisms to climate change remains poorly understood. Based on a 23-year longitudinal study on Alpine marmots, we investigated how their lifestyle, characterized by a long hibernation and a high degree of sociality, interacts with the ongoing climate change to shape temporal variation in age-specific survival. As generally reported in other hibernating species, we expected survival of Alpine marmots to be affected by the continuous lengthening of the growing season of plants more than by changes in winter conditions. We found, however, that Alpine marmots displayed lower juvenile survival over time. Colder winters associated with a thinner snow layer lowered juvenile survival, which in turn was associated with a decrease in the relative number of helpers in groups the following years, and therefore lowered the chances of over-winter survival of juveniles born in the most recent years. Our results provide evidence that constraints on life-history traits associated with hibernation and sociality caused juvenile survival to decrease over time, which might prevent Alpine marmots coping successfully with climate change.

Evidence of reduced individual heterogeneity in adult survival of long-lived species

The canalization hypothesis postulates that the rate at which trait variation generates variation in the average individual fitness in a population determines how buffered traits are against environmental and genetic factors. The ranking of a species on the slow-fast continuum - the covariation among life-history traits describing species-specific life cycles along a gradient going from a long life, slow maturity, and low annual reproductive output, to a short life, fast maturity, and high annual reproductive output - strongly correlates with the relative fitness impact of a given amount of variation in adult survival. Under the canalization hypothesis, long-lived species are thus expected to display less individual heterogeneity in survival at the onset of adulthood, when reproductive values peak, than short-lived species. We tested this life-history prediction by analysing long-term time series of individual-based data in nine species of birds and mammals using capture-recapture models. We found that individual heterogeneity in survival was higher in species with short-generation time (< 3 years) than in species with long generation time (> 4 years). Our findings provide the first piece of empirical evidence for the canalization hypothesis at the individual level from the wild.

Archiving Primary Data: Solutions for Long-Term Studies

The recent trend for journals to require open access to primary data included in publications has been embraced by many biologists, but has caused apprehension amongst researchers engaged in long-term ecological and evolutionary studies. A worldwide survey of 73 principal investigators (Pls) with long-term studies revealed positive attitudes towards sharing data with the agreement or involvement of the PI, and 93% of PIs have historically shared data. Only 8% were in favor of uncontrolled, open access to primary data while 63% expressed serious concern. We present here their viewpoint on an issue that can have non-trivial scientific consequences. We discuss potential costs of public data archiving and provide possible solutions to meet the needs of journals and researchers.

Early-late life trade-offs and the evolution of ageing in the wild

Empirical evidence for declines in fitness components (survival and reproductive performance) with age has recently accumulated in wild populations, highlighting that the process of senescence is nearly ubiquitous in the living world. Senescence patterns are highly variable among species and current evolutionary theories of ageing propose that such variation can be accounted for by differences in allocation to growth and reproduction during early life. Here, we compiled 26 studies of free-ranging vertebrate populations that explicitly tested for a trade-off between performance in early and late life. Our review brings overall support for the presence of early-late life trade-offs, suggesting that the limitation of available resources leads individuals to trade somatic maintenance later in life for high allocation to reproduction early in life. We discuss our results in the light of two closely related theories of ageing-the disposable soma and the antagonistic pleiotropy theories-and propose that the principle of energy allocation roots the ageing process in the evolution of life-history strategies. Finally, we outline research topics that should be investigated in future studies, including the importance of natal environmental conditions in the study of trade-offs between early- and late-life performance and the evolution of sex-differences in ageing patterns.

Quantifying the influence of measured and unmeasured individual differences on demography

1. Demographic rates can vary not only with measured individual characters like age, sex and mass but also with unmeasured individual variables like behaviour, genes and health. 2. Predictions from population models that include measured individual characteristics often differ from models that exclude them. Similarly, unmeasured individual differences have the potential to impact predictions from population models. However, unmeasured individual differences are rarely included in population models. 3. We construct stage- and age-structured models (where stage is mass) of a roe deer population, which are parameterized from statistical functions that either include, or ignore, unmeasured individual differences. 4. We found that mass and age structures substantially impacted model parameters describing population dynamics, as did temporal environmental variation, while unmeasured individual differences impacted parameters describing population dynamics to a much smaller extent once individual heterogeneity related to mass and age has been included in the model. We discuss how our assumptions (unmeasured individual differences only in mean trait values) could have influenced our findings and under what circumstances unmeasured individual differences could have had a larger impact on population dynamics. 5. There are two reasons explaining the relative small influence of unmeasured individual differences on population dynamics in roe deer. First, individual body mass and age both capture a large amount of individual differences in roe deer. Second, in large populations of long-lived animals, the average quality of individuals (independent of age and mass) within the population is unlikely to show substantial variation over time, unless rapid evolution is occurring. So even though a population consisting of high-quality individuals would have much higher population growth rate than a population consisting of low-quality individuals, the probability of observing a population consisting only of high-quality individuals is small.

Fitness consequences of environmental conditions at different life stages in a long-lived vertebrate

The predictive adaptive response (PAR) hypothesis proposes that animals adjust their physiology and developmental trajectory during early life in anticipation of their future environments. Accordingly, when environmental conditions in early life match environmental conditions during adulthood, individual fitness should be greater. Here, we test this hypothesis in a long-lived mammal, the roe deer, using data from two contrasting populations, intensively monitored for more than 35 years. In the highly productive site, the fitness of female roe deer increased with the quality of environment during adulthood and, contrary to predictions of PAR, individuals born in good conditions always outperformed those born under poor conditions. In the resource-limited site, the fitness of female roe deer born in poor years was better than those born in good conditions in poor years when the animals were adult, but not in good years. Although consistent with predictions of PAR, we showed that this pattern is likely to be a consequence of increased viability selection during the juvenile stage for animals born in poor years. While PARs are often advanced in evolutionary medicine, our findings suggest that detailed biological processes should be investigated before drawing conclusions about the existence of this phenomenon.

Functional analysis of normalized difference vegetation index curves reveals overwinter mule deer survival is driven by both spring and autumn phenology

Large herbivore populations respond strongly to remotely sensed measures of primary productivity. Whereas most studies in seasonal environments have focused on the effects of spring plant phenology on juvenile survival, recent studies demonstrated that autumn nutrition also plays a crucial role. We tested for both direct and indirect (through body mass) effects of spring and autumn phenology on winter survival of 2315 mule deer fawns across a wide range of environmental conditions in Idaho, USA. We first performed a functional analysis that identified spring and autumn as the key periods for structuring the among-population and among-year variation of primary production (approximated from 1 km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)) along the growing season. A path analysis showed that early winter precipitation and direct and indirect effects of spring and autumn NDVI functional components accounted for 45% of observed variation in overwinter survival. The effect size of autumn phenology on body mass was about twice that of spring phenology, while direct effects of phenology on survival were similar between spring and autumn. We demonstrate that the effects of plant phenology vary across ecosystems, and that in semi-arid systems, autumn may be more important than spring for overwinter survival.

Mismatch between birth date and vegetation phenology slows the demography of roe deer

Marked impacts of climate change on biodiversity have frequently been demonstrated, including temperature-related shifts in phenology and life-history traits. One potential major impact of climate change is the modification of synchronization between the phenology of different trophic levels. High phenotypic plasticity in laying date has allowed many bird species to track the increasingly early springs resulting from recent environmental change, but although changes in the timing of reproduction have been well studied in birds, these questions have only recently been addressed in mammals. To track peak resource availability, large herbivores like roe deer, with a widespread distribution across Europe, should also modify their life-history schedule in response to changes in vegetation phenology over time. In this study, we analysed the influence of climate change on the timing of roe deer births and the consequences for population demography and individual fitness. Our study provides a rare quantification of the demographic costs associated with the failure of a species to modify its phenology in response to a changing world. Given these fitness costs, the lack of response of roe deer birth dates to match the increasingly earlier onset of spring is in stark contrast with the marked phenotypic responses to climate change reported in many other mammals. We suggest that the lack of phenotypic plasticity in birth timing in roe deer is linked to its inability to track environmental cues of variation in resource availability for the timing of parturition.

Variation in adult body mass of roe deer: early environmental conditions influence early and late body growth of females

There is increasing evidence that environmental conditions experienced early in life can markedly affect an organism's life history, but the pathways by which early environment influences adult phenotype are poorly known. We used long-term data from two roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) populations (Chizé and Trois-Fontaines, France) to investigate the direct and indirect (operating through fawn body mass) effects of environmental conditions during early life on adult body mass. We found that environmental conditions (population size and spring temperatures) around birth influenced body mass of adult females through both direct and indirect effects in both populations. The occurrence of direct effects means that, for a given fawn body mass, adult female mass decreases with adverse conditions in early life. In contrast, we found no evidence for direct effects of early-life conditions on adult body mass of males, suggesting the existence of sex-specific long-term responses of body mass to stressful early conditions. Our results provide evidence that early environmental conditions influence the adult phenotype through persistent effects over the body development in wild mammal populations.

Decreasing litter size of marmots over time: a life history response to climate change?

The way that plants and animals respond to climate change varies widely among species, but the biological features underlying their actual response remains largely unknown. Here, from a 20-year monitoring study, we document a continuous decrease in litter size of the Alpine marmot (Marmota marmota) since 1990. To cope with harsh winters, Alpine marmots hibernate in burrows and their reproductive output should depend more on spring conditions compared to animals that are active year-round. However, we show that litter size decreased over time because of the general thinning of winter snow cover that has been repeatedly reported to occur in the Alps over the same period, despite a positive effect of an earlier snowmelt in spring. Our results contrast markedly with a recent study on North American yellow-bellied marmots, suggesting that between-species differences in life histories can lead to opposite responses to climate change, even between closely related species. Our case study therefore demonstrates the idiosyncratic nature of the response to climate change and emphasizes, even for related species with similar ecological niches, that it may be hazardous to extrapolate life history responses to climate change from one species to another.

Modeling reproductive trajectories of roe deer females: fixed or dynamic heterogeneity?

The relative role of dynamic and fixed heterogeneity in shaping the individual heterogeneity observed in most life-history traits remains difficult to quantify. In a recent work, Tuljapurkar et al. (2009) suggested modeling individual heterogeneity in lifetime reproductive success by a null model building reproductive trajectories from a first-order Markov chain. According to this model, among-individual differences in reproductive trajectories would be generated by the stochastic transitions among reproductive states (such as breeder and non-breeder) due to dynamic heterogeneity. In this work, we analyze the individual variation in three reproductive metrics (reproductive status, fecundity, and reproductive success) in two populations of roe deer intensively monitored using Tuljapurkar et al. (2009)’s dynamic model. Moreover, we challenge the Tuljapurkar model previously used as a biological null model to test whether the observed distribution of reproductive success over the lifetime was generated by a stochastic process by modifying two steps of the previous model to build a full stochastic model. We show that a distribution generated by the full dynamic model proposed by Tuljapurkar et al. (2009) can be consistently interpreted as only generated from a stochastic biological process provided that the probabilities of transition among reproductive states used are independent of the current reproductive state and that the positive covariation that usually occurs between survival and reproduction among individuals is removed. Only the reproductive status of roe deer females could be restricted to a stochastic process described by the full stochastic model, probably because most females (>90%) were breeders in a given year. The fecundity of roe deer females could not be adequately described by the full dynamic and full stochastic model, and the observed distribution of female reproductive success differed from the one generated by a full dynamic model in which each individual reproductive trajectory was independent of the individual lifespan (second step of the full dynamic model changed). While there was clear evidence that dynamic heterogeneity occurred and accounted for a large part of the observed among-individual variation in reproductive trajectories of roe deer females, a stochastic process did not provide a suitable model for all reproductive metrics. Consequently, models including additional fixed and dynamic traits need to be built in order to separate the relative role of fixed and dynamic heterogeneities in generating reproductive trajectories.

Parturition date for a given female is highly repeatable within five roe deer populations

Births are highly synchronized among females in many mammal populations in temperate areas. Although laying date for a given female is also repeatable within populations of birds, limited evidence suggests low repeatability of parturition date for individual females in mammals, and between-population variability in repeatability has never, to our knowledge, been assessed. We quantified the repeatability of parturition date for individual females in five populations of roe deer, which we found to vary between 0.54 and 0.93. Each year, some females gave birth consistently earlier in the year, whereas others gave birth consistently later. In addition, all females followed the same lifetime trajectory for parturition date, giving birth progressively earlier as they aged. Giving birth early should allow mothers to increase offspring survival, although few females managed to do so. The marked repeatability of parturition date in roe deer females is the highest ever reported for a mammal, suggesting low phenotypic plasticity in this trait.

Immune phenotype and body condition in roe deer: individuals with high body condition have different, not stronger immunity

An efficient immunity is necessary for host survival, but entails energetic costs. When energy is limited, immunocompetence and body condition should co-vary positively among individuals and, depending on body condition, individuals should allocate more either in innate immunity or in adaptive response. We tested whether immune phenotype depends on body condition in large mammals, using data from two contrasted populations of roe deer Capreolus capreolus in France. Roe deer living at Chizé, a forest with poor habitat quality, were expected to show lower values for body condition and immune parameters than roe deer at Trois Fontaines, a forest with high habitat quality. From 285 blood samples collected between December 2009 and March 2011, we measured seven metabolic parameters and ten immunological parameters. A Principal Component Analysis showed that all indicators of body condition co-varied positively and were lowest at Chizé. Several immunological indicators correlated to body condition and differed between Trois Fontaines and Chizé. However, high body condition was not associated to a high average level of immunocompetence, but instead to high levels of indicators of acute inflammatory innate response, while low body condition was associated to high levels of monocytes and lymphocytes, possibly reflecting adaptive immunity. Limited data suggest that the difference between populations was not related to the presence of specific parasite species, however parasite exposure and stress have to be investigated to gain a more complete understanding of the determinants of immunity.

On the use of the IUCN status for the management of trophy hunting

Context Whether trophy hunting is beneficial or a threat to the conservation of species is an open and hotly debated question. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) is in charge of assessing the need for species protection at the global scale and providing a useful guide for sustainable exploitation and conservation. Consideration of the IUCN status in wildlife management and its consequences on the attractiveness of trophy-hunted species remains to be quantified. Aims The present study investigated the link between the IUCN status of the trophy species and its exploitation in 124 taxa. We expected that the number of trophies should be inversely correlated with the IUCN vulnerability status across species. Methods Using the database of the Safari Club International, one of the largest hunting associations worldwide, we investigated the effect (1) of the first status attribution and (2) of an upgrade of the IUCN status on the number of trophies recorded by the Safari Club International, by comparing the average number of trophies 5 years before and after a status change. Key results First, we found that the status attributed by the IUCN in a given year had no effect on the number of recorded trophies during the following 5 years. Second, upgrading the IUCN status led to an important decrease in the number of recorded trophies for most species (75%), except for the most vulnerable ones (African elephant, Loxodonta africana; banteng, Bos javanicus; lelwel hartebeest, Alcelaphus buselaphus lelwel; European bison, Bison bonasus). Conclusions Our results suggest that although a protective IUCN status lowers the exploitation of the moderately threatened species, hunting pressure on the most threatened one increases instead. The findings support the possibility of an anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE), i.e. a disproportionate exploitation of the rarest species. Implications The highly profitable exploitation of rare species could have harmful consequences, unless appropriate management actions and protection rules are enforced.