POS0454 COMPARISON OF MBDA SCORE, PATIENT GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND EVALUATOR GLOBAL ASSESSMENT FOR PREDICTING RISK OF RADIOGRAPHIC PROGRESSION

Background:

Busy rheumatologists may assess disease activity and risk for radiographic progression (RP) in RA with informal, qualitative versions of evaluator and/or patient global assessments (EGA and PGA). RA patient care may be improved by having a convenient, objective disease activity measure that predicts risk for RP more accurately than EGA or PGA.

Objectives:

To compare the abilities of MBDA score, patient global assessment and evaluator global assessment to assess risk for radiographic progression (RP), and to assess the ability of MBDA score to predict RP among patients with concordant or discordant PGA and EGA.

Methods:

Patients were pooled from two RCTs of patients with recent onset RA treated with conventional and biologic DMARDs (OPERA and SWEFOT, N=386) and from a registry of patients with predominantly established RA and diverse treatments (BRASS, N=380). Pearson correlations were determined between MBDA scores (adjusted for the effects of age, sex and adiposity) (scale 1-100), PGA and EGA (each on a scale of 1-10) at baseline. PGA and EGA were considered discordant when they differed by >2.5. Univariable logistic regression assessed ability to predict RP (change in TSS >5 over 1 year) for MBDA score, PGA and EGA as continuous variables; and for discordance of PGA and EGA as 2-level (concordant vs. discordant) or 3-level (PGA>EGA, concordant, EGA>PGA) categorical variables. Multivariable regression considered the main effect and interaction terms of the MBDA score, as a continuous variable, paired with each other variable, to test the ability of each pair to assess risk of RP. All models included a random effect on cohort. Odds ratios were reported for every 10-unit increase in MBDA score. Frequency of RP was determined in subgroups with MBDA score low (<30), moderate (30-44) or high (>44) for patient groups based on PGA/EGA concordance or discordance.

Results:

The 766 patients studied were 76% female, 76% positive for RF and/or anti-CCP Ab, with mean age 55 years, DAS28-CRP 4.7, CRP 22 mg/L, CDAI 26, SJC 9.1, PGA 4.4, EGA 3.4, MBDA score 53. No interaction was seen between MBDA score and type of cohort (early vs established RA). PGA and EGA were discordant in 294 of 766 (38%) patients and were weakly to moderately correlated (r=0.38). Among discordant patients, PGA was >EGA in 227 cases and EGA was >PGA in 67 cases. Correlations between MBDA score and PGA or EGA were r=0.41 and r=0.34, respectively. In univariable analyses, MBDA score was a statistically significant predictor of radiographic progression (OR=1.53, p=6.3x10-8) whereas PGA, EGA, 2-level discordance and 3-level discordance were not (p=0.38, 0.47, 0.74, 0.83, respectively). In multivariable analyses, significant interactions were observed between MBDA score and discordance (2-level, p=0.0029; 3-level, p=0.0087). The interaction analysis demonstrated, in PGA/EGA-concordant patients, low risk of radiographic progression when MBDA score was low and elevated risk when it was high (OR=1.33 [1.1, 1.59]). A relationship between MBDA score and RP risk was also demonstrated, with heightened trend, among discordant patients with PGA >EGA (OR=2.04 [1.53, 2.81]) and EGA >PGA (OR=3.43 [1.37, 13.8]) (Figure 1).

Conclusion:

MBDA score was a significant predictor of radiographic progression, whereas PGA and EGA were not. MBDA score predicted progression whether PGA and EGA were concordant or discordant. These results suggest that MBDA score detects joint-damaging disease activity more accurately than PGA and EGA and it does so whether or not PGA and EGA are in agreement.

Disclosure of Interests:

Leonard Calabrese Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Cresecendo, Genentech, Gilead, GlaxoSmithKline, Horizon, Janssen, Novartis, and Sanofi., Michael E. Weinblatt Shareholder of: Canfite, Inmedix, Scipher, and Vorso, Consultant of: AbbVie, Aclaris, Amgen, Bayer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Crescendo Bioscience, Corrona, EqRX, GSK,Genosco, Gilead, Lilly, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Set Point, Grant/research support from: Bristol-Myers Squibb, Myriad Genetics, Inc.,Eli Lilly and Sanofi, Nancy Shadick Consultant of: BMS, Grant/research support from: Lilly, mallinckrodt, BMS, Amgen and Sanofi, Cecilie Heegaard Brahe: None declared, Mikkel Østergaard Consultant of: Abbvie, BMS, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Celgene, Eli-Lilly, Centocor, GSK, Hospira, Janssen, Merck, Novartis, Orion, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, Takeda, and UCB, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, BMS, Celgene, Myriad Genetics, Inc., Janssen, and Merck, Merete L. Hetland Speakers bureau: Orion, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Biogen, BMS, CelltrionRoche, Myriad Genetics, Inc., Eli Lily, MSD, Pfizer, and UCB, Megan Horton Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Darl Flake Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Eric Sasso Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Autoimmune

POS0456 EXTERNAL VALIDATION OF A MULTI-BIOMARKER-BASED CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE RISK PREDICTION SCORE FOR RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS PATIENTS

Background:

A novel score for predicting 3-year risk for CVD events in RA patients combines age, four traditional CVD risk factors (diabetes, hypertension, smoking, history of high-risk CVD event), a personalized assessment of RA-related inflammation based on the multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score and, individually, 3 of its 12 biomarkers, TNF-R1, MMP-3 and leptin (log-transformed). This score was developed and internally validated using patient data from the Medicare database.

Objectives:

The purpose of this analysis was to externally validate the MBDA-based CVD risk prediction score in a younger cohort from the Symphony claims database.

Methods:

A cohort of patients greater than or equal to 18 years old with RA diagnosis from a rheumatologist and evidence of an RA-specific treatment, excluding patients with malignancy, past myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke, was created by a third party (Symphony) by matching medical and pharmaceutical claims and linking them to MBDA scores from a database of tests done for routine care. Medicare patients were excluded to avoid overlap with the internal validation cohort. Only the first MBDA test was used for each patient. The study endpoint was time from MBDA testing to first CVD event within a 3-year time horizon. CVD event was defined as MI or stroke, based on ICD-9 or ICD-10 diagnosis codes in hospital claims. Analyses focused on relative risk, not absolute risk, because CVD event data in Symphony may be incomplete. A univariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was fit with the MBDA-based CVD risk score as the sole predictor of time to CVD event to obtain a hazard ratio (HR) estimate (95% CI) and p-values from a likelihood ratio test (LRT). Sensitivity analyses determined HR for patient subgroups, with p-values determined for the interaction between subgroups and the MBDA-based CVD risk score. Using a multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model, the MBDA-based CVD risk score was compared to a simpler model that included only age, sex, diabetes, hypertension, history of other CVD, smoking and CRP (log-transformed) for ability to predict time to a CVD event.

Results:

48,868 patients with 337 CVD events met eligibility criteria and had linked biomarker data. Mean age was 54.4 years. 81.7% were female (Table 1). Mean follow-up was 24.4 months. The MBDA-based CVD risk score (mean 3.3, IQR 2.8–3.8) was highly significant in univariate analysis, with HR = 3.99 (95% CI: 3.52-4.51, p = 4.4×10-95); i.e., for every 1-unit increase in risk score, the CVD event rate in this cohort was ~4 times as high. Similar results were seen in the subset of 44,379 patients <65 years old, with HR=4.26 (95% CI: 3.53-5.14, p = 1.2×10-47). In sensitivity analyses, after adjusting for multiple comparisons, there were no significant differences between HR of complementary subgroups (Figure 1). The MBDA-based CVD risk score added significant prognostic information to a simpler, clinical model (HR=2.28 [95% CI: 1.69-3.08, p = 1.6×10-7] after accounting for all other factors).

Conclusion:

The MBDA-based CVD risk prediction score has been externally validated in a cohort that is younger than and independent of the Medicare cohort used previously for test development and internal validation.

Table 1.

Cohort characteristics of RA patients with linked biomarker data and at risk for CVD events.

VariableMedian (IQR) or N (%)Total patients48,868()Age, years54 (46-60)Sex, male8,940 (18.3%)Diabetes7,974 (16.3%)Hypertension19,132 (39.2%)History of high-risk CVD event6,713 (13.7%)Smoking7,487 (15.3%)CRP, mg/L4.1 (1.4-11.5)Leptin, ng/mL24.3 (10.6-47.1)MMP-3, ng/mL21.1 (14.3-36.2)TNF-RI, ng/mL1.4 (1.1-1.7)MBDA score40 (31-48)MBDA-based CVD risk score3.3 (2.8-3.8)

Disclosure of Interests:

Jeffrey Curtis Grant/research support from: Abbvie, Amgen, BMS, Corrona, Eli Lilly, Jannsen, Myriad Genetics, Inc., Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, and UCB., Eric Sasso Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Autoimmune, Elena Hitraya Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Autoimmune, Cheryl Chin Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Autoimmune, Richard Bamford Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Autoimmune, Rotem Ben-Shachar Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Alexander Gutin Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Darl Flake Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Brent Mabey Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Jerry Lanchbury Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc.

FRI0553 DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A BIOMARKER-BASED CARDIOVASCULAR RISK PREDICTION SCORE IN RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS

Background:

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients are at elevated risk for cardiovascular (CV) events, but risk stratification based on CV prediction models is not part of routine rheumatology practice.

Objectives:

To develop and validate a biomarker-based CV risk prediction model and compare it to alternative risk prediction models.

Methods:

We constructed a cohort of RA patients - age ≥40 with ≥1 RA diagnosis from a rheumatologist, excluding patients with malignancy, past myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke - by linking Medicare administrative data from 2006-2016 to multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) test results obtained as part of routine care. The cohort was split 2:1 to create training and internal validation datasets. The composite CV outcome was MI, stroke or CV death occurring within 3 years. Clinical predictors examined were: age, sex, race, traditional CV risk factors (e.g. diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, high-risk CV conditions [e.g. angina]), RA-related factors (e.g. glucocorticoid use, MTX, number of prior biologics), adjusted MBDA score1and its 12 biomarkers, log-transformed. Backward elimination was used to remove predictors with p ≥0.05. The resulting CV risk score was compared to four prediction models (age+sex; age+sex+CRP; age+sex+diabetes+hypertension+ smoking+high risk CV [±CRP]) in the validation dataset. We evaluated: 1) incremental improvement in the likelihood ratio test (LRT) statistic, 2) discrimination (AUROC), and 3) goodness-of-fit (predicted vs. observed, based on Kaplan-Meier estimates). Validation analyses were prespecified.

Results:

30,751 RA patients with 904 CV events were linked to MBDA test results and eligible for analysis. Patient characteristics were mean (SD) age 68.7 (9.5) years; 23.4% age <65; 82% women. Comorbidities included diabetes (39%), hypertension (78%), smoking (24%) and history of high-risk CV condition (37%). RA-related features included use of glucocorticoids (58%), MTX (60%), TNFi (33%) and other biologics (16%). Mean (SD) MBDA score was 41 (14). The final covariates included in the MBDA-based CV risk score were age, diabetes, hypertension, smoking, history of high-risk CV conditions, adjusted MBDA score, leptin, TNFRI and MMP-3. Median (IQR) of the predicted 3-year CV risk was 3.4% (2.1%, 5.6%). Based on extrapolation to 10-year risk, 9.4% of patients would be considered low, 10.2% borderline, 52.2% intermediate, and 28.2% high risk per 2019 ACC/AHA guidelines.

Compared to four simpler CV prediction models, significant improvement in the LRT statistic was observed with the addition of the biomarker-based CV risk score (Figure 1). Model fit was good across deciles (Figure 2). The AUROC was 0.70. The MBDA-based model reclassified 28.5% of patients vs. the model based on age+sex+diabetes+hypertension +smoking+high risk CV+CRP.

Figure 1.

Incremental Improvement of MBDA-based CV Risk Score Compared to Other CV Risk Prediction Models

Figure 2.

MBDA-Based CV Risk Score Calibration for Composite CV Outcome at 3 Years

Conclusion:

A biomarker-based prediction score incorporating a few clinical risk factors appears to have good accuracy to predict CV risk in RA. Additional validation in independent cohorts will help verify its performance characteristics.

References:

[1] Curtis et al.,Rheumatology2018;58:874.

Disclosure of Interests:

Jeffrey Curtis Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Corrona, Janssen, Lilly, Myriad, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, UCB, Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Corrona, Janssen, Lilly, Myriad, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, UCB, Fenglong Xie: None declared, Cynthia S. Crowson Grant/research support from: Pfizer research grant, Brent Mabey Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Darl Flake Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Richard Bamford Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Cheryl Chin Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Eric Sasso Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Elena Hitraya Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Rotem Ben-Shachar Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Alexander Gutin Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Jerry Lanchbury Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc.

AB1243 TRAINING AND VALIDATION OF A MULTIVARIATE PREDICTOR OF RISK OF RADIOGRAPHIC PROGRESSION FOR PATIENTS WITH RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS

Background:

The multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score, adjusted for age, sex and adiposity (MBDAadj), has been shown to be better than several conventional disease activity measures for predicting risk for radiographic progression (RP) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA).1Serologic status and other non-disease activity measures are also predictive of RP risk. Combining them with the MBDAadjshould result in a stronger prognostic test for RP than any one measure alone.

Objectives:

Develop a multivariate model for predicting risk for RP that includes the adjusted MBDA score and other known predictors of RP.

Methods:

Four RA cohorts were used, two for training (OPERA and BRASS, n=555) and two for validation (SWEFOT and Leiden, n=397). Each pair of cohorts was heterogeneous in disease duration and treatment history. BMI data were not available for one validation cohort, so a BMI surrogate was modeled using forward selection with the two training cohorts and 3 others (CERTAIN, InFoRM, RACER) (N=1411). An RP risk score was then trained using forward selection in a linear mixed-effects regression, considering disease-related and demographic variables as predictors of change in modified total Sharp score over one year (ΔmTSS), with a random effect on cohort. The RP risk score was validated as a predictor of RP with two cutoffs (ΔmTSS >3 and >5) using logistic mixed-effects regression. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% profile likelihood-based confidence intervals (CI) were calculated from the models and significance was assessed by likelihood ratio tests. Risk curves were generated to show probability of RP as a function of the RP risk score.

Results:

The BMI surrogate included leptin, sex, age and age2and correlated well with BMI (ρ = 0.76). In training, the most significant independent predictors of RP were MBDAadj(p = 0.00020), seropositivity (p = 9.3 x 10-5), BMI surrogate score (p = 0.013) and use of targeted therapy (p = 0.0026). The final model was: RP risk score = 0.024 x MBDAadj+ 0.093 if seropositive – 0.063 x BMI surrogate score – 0.61 if using a targeted therapy. In validation, the OR (95% CI) of the RP risk score for predicting ΔTSS >3 or >5 were 2.2 (1.6, 3.2) (p = 2.6 × 10-6) and 3.1 (2.0, 5.0) (p = 5.7 × 10-8), respectively (Figure 1). The odds of a patient having RP increases by 50% for each 21-unit or 15-unit increase in MBDAadj, for RP defined as ΔTSS >3 or >5, respectively.

Figure 1.

Conclusion:

A multivariate model containing adjusted MBDA score, seropositivity, a BMI surrogate and use of targeted therapy has been trained and validated as a prognostic test for radiographic progression in RA.

References:

[1]Curtis, et al.Rheumatology [Oxford].2018;58:874

Disclosure of Interests:

Thomas Huizinga Grant/research support from: Ablynx, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Roche, Sanofi, Consultant of: Ablynx, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Roche, Sanofi, Michael E. Weinblatt Grant/research support from: BMS, Amgen, Lilly, Crescendo and Sonofi-Regeneron, Consultant of: Horizon Therapeutics, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Amgen, Abbvie, Crescendo, Lilly, Pfizer, Roche, Gilead, Nancy Shadick Grant/research support from: Mallinckrodt, BMS, Lilly, Amgen, Crescendo Biosciences, and Sanofi-Regeneron, Consultant of: BMS, Cecilie Heegaard Brahe: None declared, Mikkel Ǿstergaard Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Merck, and Novartis, Consultant of: AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boehringer Ingelheim, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Hospira, Janssen, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Orion, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, Sandoz, Sanofi, and UCB, Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boehringer Ingelheim, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Hospira, Janssen, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Orion, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, Sandoz, Sanofi, and UCB, Merete L. Hetland Grant/research support from: BMS, MSD, AbbVie, Roche, Novartis, Biogen and Pfizer, Consultant of: Eli Lilly, Speakers bureau: Orion Pharma, Biogen, Pfizer, CellTrion, Merck and Samsung Bioepis, Saedis Saevarsdottir Employee of: Part-time at deCODE Genetics/Amgen Inc, working on genetic research unrelated to this project, Megan Horton Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Brent Mabey Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Darl Flake Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Rotem Ben-Shachar Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Eric Sasso Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Alexander Gutin Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Elena Hitraya Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Jerry Lanchbury Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Jeffrey Curtis Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Corrona, Janssen, Lilly, Myriad, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, UCB, Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Corrona, Janssen, Lilly, Myriad, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, UCB

AB1239 THE EFFECT OF INFLUENZA VACCINATION ON THE MULTI-BIOMARKER DISEASE ACTIVITY SCORE AND ITS COMPONENT BIOMARKERS IN HEALTHY SUBJECTS

Background:

The multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) blood test measures 12 protein biomarkers (IL-6, CRP, SAA, EGF, VEGF, VCAM, MMP-1, MMP-3, leptin, resistin, TNF-RI and YKL40). It uses a validated algorithm to provide a score on a scale of 1-100 for assessing disease activity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The MBDA score reflects several molecular aspects of inflammation, including cytokines, acute phase reactants, growth factors, molecular adhesion, metalloproteinases and hormones. Insights gained by understanding how vaccination affects these biomarkers in healthy subjects - in whom the level of inflammation prior to vaccination should be low and stable - may aid the understanding of how vaccination affects patients with RA.

Objectives:

The goal of this study was to understand how immunization of healthy subjects with the influenza vaccine affects the assessment of inflammation with the MBDA score and its 12 biomarkers.

Methods:

A 4-strain influenza virus vaccine (Fluarix Quadrivalent, GlaxoSmithKline) was administered intramuscularly to 22 healthy volunteer subjects on October 24, 2018. Serum samples were obtained immediately prior to vaccination (baseline) and 1, 2 and 3 weeks after vaccination. No restrictions were placed on subject activity. Samples were stored at -80oC until measurement of the 12 MBDA biomarkers for determination of the adjusted MBDA score, hereafter called the MBDA score. (Adjustment accounts for the effects of age, sex and adiposity1). MBDA scores (natural scale) and biomarker concentrations (log scale) were modeled using generalized estimating equations (GEE) that account for correlations between measurements from the same subject at multiple timepoints. Significance of MBDA score change or biomarker concentration change over time was determined by a likelihood ratio test of timepoints.

Results:

Of the 22 healthy subjects receiving the influenza virus vaccine, 14 (63.6%) were female, with mean (SD) age of 40.0 years (8.9). MBDA scores were low (<30), moderate (30-44) or high (>44) for 15 (68%), 6 (27%) and 1 (5%) subjects at baseline, and this distribution was stable over time (Figure 1). Overall, MBDA scores did not change significantly over time (p=0.48, Figure 2). Mean changes in MBDA score (95% CI) from baseline to weeks 1, 2 and 3 were 0.32 (-3.07, 3.71), 0.82 (-3.03, 4.67) and 2.86 (-1.10, 6.82), respectively (Figure 2); the week 3 value becomes 0.95 (-1.78, 3.68) if the week 3 outlier is removed. Among the 66 post-baseline measurements of change in MBDA score (Figure 2), 3 (5%) exceeded the 95% CI for change in MBDA score in this study (i.e., 14). When assessing the entire cohort across all timepoints, EGF was the only biomarker that demonstrated statistically significant change over time (p=5.6 x 10-7). At weeks 1, 2 and 3, the mean relative concentrations of EGF, compared with baseline, were 0.62 (0.52, 0.74), 0.86 (0.70, 1.06) and 0.62 (0.50, 0.76), respectively.

Figure 1Figure 2

Conclusion:

Immunization of 22 healthy subjects with a quadrivalent influenza vaccine did not have a statistically significant effect on MBDA scores during a 3-week observation, and it had minimal effect on the component biomarkers.

References:

[1]Curtis et al.Rheumatology [Oxford]2018;58:874

Disclosure of Interests:

Daniel Furst Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Actelion, Amgen, BMS, Corbus Pharmaceuticals, the National Institutes of Health, Novartis, Pfizer, and Roche/Genentech, Consultant of: AbbVie, Actelion, Amgen, BMS, Cytori Therapeutics, Corbus Pharmaceuticals, the National Institutes of Health, Novartis, Pfizer, and Roche/Genentech, Speakers bureau: CMC Connect (McCann Health Company), Lauren Lenz Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Megan Horton Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Darl Flake Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Eric Sasso Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Michael E. Weinblatt Grant/research support from: BMS, Amgen, Lilly, Crescendo and Sonofi-Regeneron, Consultant of: Horizon Therapeutics, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Amgen, Abbvie, Crescendo, Lilly, Pfizer, Roche, Gilead

FRI0057 A MODEL FOR QUANTIFYING THE EFFECT OF INFLAMMATION ON CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE RISK PREDICTION IN RA PATIENTS

Background:

Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are at increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD)[1]. Quantifying the effect of inflammation on CVD risk is important because rheumatologists can reduce inflammation with effective RA medications. A new score has been developed for predicting the risk for a CVD event (MI, stroke or CV death) in RA patients. It combines serological measures of inflammation (the multi-biomarker disease activity [MBDA] score, a measure of RA disease activity; and three individual biomarkers [TNF-RI, MMP-3 and leptin]), with age and four conventional CVD risk factors (smoking, hypertension, diabetes and history of a high- risk CVD condition)[2]. To gain insight into the potential effect that treating inflammation may have on the CVD risk score, it would be useful to know how the score is affected by the level of inflammation.

Objectives:

Explore the quantitative contribution of inflammation to CVD risk score in individual RA patients.

Methods:

To quantify the effect of inflammation on the CVD risk score across a range of MBDA scores, a commercial dataset of 177,486 RA patients with ≥2 MBDA tests between October 2010 and June 2019 was split 2:1 into training and validation datasets. Curves showing variation in the CVD risk score across the spectrum of all possible MBDA scores (1-100) were generated for canonical patient types differing in the number of conventional risk factors (0 to 4) and age (45, 55, 65, 75, 85 years). To generate these curves, the contributions of TNF-RI, MMP-3 and leptin to the CVD risk score were treated in aggregate (denoted the molecular score) and estimated using a linear regression model of the difference in molecular scores vs. the difference in MBDA scores. This model for the molecular score was fit in the training dataset, then in the full dataset, with dataset (training or validation) and the interaction between dataset and change in MBDA score included as additional predictor variables. The method was considered validated if the F-test for the interaction variable was not significant at the 0.05 level.

Results:

The model for estimating the molecular score from the MBDA scores was validated and shown to fit the data well (Figure 1). The estimated molecular score was applied to the CVD risk score algorithm to generate curves that show how CVD risk score varies with MBDA score for several distinct patient types. These curves demonstrate that the predicted 3-year CVD risk increases continuously and markedly with increasing level of inflammation, as represented by the MBDA score (Figure 2). Age and the number of conventional risk factors also affected the predicted CVD risk, with older patients (Figure 2a) and those with more conventional risk factors (Figure 2b) being at higher risk for a CVD event.

Conclusion:

The level of CVD risk predicted by a new prognostic test for RA patients depends not only on conventional risk factors, which are relatively time invariant, but also varies greatly due to inflammation, which can potentially be reduced with RA treatment.

References:

[1]Agca et al (2017).Ann Rheum Dis.76(1):17-28. doi: 10.1136/annrheumdis-2016-209775.

[2]Curtis JR, Xie F, Crowson CS et al. (2019) ACR meeting abstract #446

Disclosure of Interests:

Rotem Ben-Shachar Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Darl Flake Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Richard Bamford Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Brent Mabey Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Eric Sasso Shareholder of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Employee of: Myriad Genetics, Inc., Jeffrey Curtis Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Corrona, Janssen, Lilly, Myriad, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, UCB, Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Corrona, Janssen, Lilly, Myriad, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, UCB

Pattern of care and effectiveness of treatment for glioblastoma patients in the real world: Results from a prospective population-based registry. Could survival differ in a high-volume center?

BACKGROUND

As yet, no population-based prospective studies have been conducted to investigate the incidence and clinical outcome of glioblastoma (GBM) or the diffusion and impact of the current standard therapeutic approach in newly diagnosed patients younger than aged 70 years.

METHODS

Data on all new cases of primary brain tumors observed from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2010, in adults residing within the Emilia-Romagna region were recorded in a prospective registry in the Project of Emilia Romagna on Neuro-Oncology (PERNO). Based on the data from this registry, a prospective evaluation was made of the treatment efficacy and outcome in GBM patients.

RESULTS

Two hundred sixty-seven GBM patients (median age, 64 y; range, 29-84 y) were enrolled. The median overall survival (OS) was 10.7 months (95% CI, 9.2-12.4). The 139 patients ≤aged 70 years who were given standard temozolomide treatment concomitant with and adjuvant to radiotherapy had a median OS of 16.4 months (95% CI, 14.0-18.5). With multivariate analysis, OS correlated significantly with KPS (HR = 0.458; 95% CI, 0.248-0.847; P = .0127), MGMT methylation status (HR = 0.612; 95% CI, 0.388-0.966; P = .0350), and treatment received in a high versus low-volume center (HR = 0.56; 95% CI, 0.328-0.986; P = .0446).

CONCLUSIONS

The median OS following standard temozolomide treatment concurrent with and adjuvant to radiotherapy given to (72.8% of) patients aged ≤70 years is consistent with findings reported from randomized phase III trials. The volume and expertise of the treatment center should be further investigated as a prognostic factor.

Adalimumab improves joint-related and skin-related functional impairment in patients with psoriatic arthritis: patient-reported outcomes of the Adalimumab Effectiveness in Psoriatic Arthritis Trial

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effects of adalimumab on patient-reported outcomes of joint-related and skin-related functional impairment, health-related quality of life, fatigue and pain in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA).

METHODS

Patients with moderately- to severely- active PsA were treated with adalimumab, 40 mg, every other week, or placebo, in this 24-week, randomised, controlled trial. Patient-reported outcomes included the Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index (HAQ DI), Short-Form 36 Health Survey (SF-36), the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Fatigue (FACIT-Fatigue) Scale and the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI).

RESULTS

Adalimumab (n = 151) and placebo (n = 162) groups were comparable with respect to baseline demographics and disease severity. Significant changes from baseline in HAQ DI were reported for adalimumab v placebo (-0.4 v -0.1, p<0.001) at both 12 and 24 weeks. At week 24, significant improvements in the SF-36 domains of physical functioning, role-physical, bodily pain, general health, vitality and social functioning, as well as the physical component summary score, were observed for adalimumab versus placebo (p<0.01). These reported changes in HAQ DI and SF-36 were also clinically important. Significantly more patients treated with adalimumab had complete resolution of functional loss (HAQ DI = 0) and dermatological-related functional limitations (DLQI = 0) compared with placebo at weeks 12 and 24 (p< or =0.001). Adalimumab led to significantly greater improvements in FACIT-Fatigue scores, pain scores, and disease activity measures versus placebo at 12 and 24 weeks (p<0.001 for all).

CONCLUSIONS

Adalimumab improved physical-related and dermatological-related functional limitations, HRQOL, fatigue and pain in patients with PsA treated for 24 weeks.

Small fibers peroneal mononeuropathy in a patient with Sjögren's syndrome

Sjögren's syndrome (SS) is an autoimmune epithelitis characterized by lymphocytic infiltration of exocrine glands and epithelia in multiple sites. One third of the patients present with peripheral nervous system involvement. We describe the case of a woman aged 62 affected by a peroneal nerve mononeuropathy with painful disturbances secondary to a prevalent involvement of small fibers as demonstrated by electrophysiological investigations and skin biopsy. Asymmetric peripheral nerve involvement is not uncommon in SS, though, to our knowledge, it has never been reported of a mononeuropathy involving primarily small fibers.

Reversible valproate-induced extrapyramidal disorders

We observed transient parkinsonism in 2 young epileptic patients with valproate (VPA) therapy. Complete recovery from extrapyramidal disorder occurred spontaneously in a few weeks. The lack of apparent susceptibility related to age and to VPA dosage, the rapid recovery from the extrapyramidal reaction, and the prevalence of negative signs such as bradykinesia and bradyphrenia can be considered the main clinical findings of this disease process. Pathophysiologic mechanisms of this rare "toxic" reaction remain unknown, although a transient imbalance between functionally reciprocal subgroups of GABA pathways leading to remediable dopamine inhibition might be hypothesized.

Study of selective reaching and grasping in a patient with unilateral parietal lesion. Dissociated effects of residual spatial neglect

In the present study we investigated the possibility of a dissociation between the visual control of reaching and the visual control of grasping in a prehension task. To this purpose we studied the kinematics of prehension movements in a patient with a right parietal lesion and in six right-handed healthy control subjects. The task we used was one in which the subjects had to reach and grasp target objects in the presence or absence of a simultaneously presented distractor object. All stimuli were presented in the space ipsilateral to the lesion. The distractor could be either of the same or different size to the target object and was presented either to the right or to the left of the target. The following parameters of the prehension 'transport' component were analysed: wrist trajectory, transport time, tangential peak velocity, acceleration. Maximal finger aperture, time to maximal finger aperture, peak acceleration and time to peak acceleration of grip aperture were the parameters of the 'grasping' component analysed. The results showed that, although the patient had no misreaching, her hand trajectory deviated abnormally towards the distractor position when the distractor was to the right (ipsilateral) side of the target. In contrast, the grasp kinematics was not affected by the distractors, even when the size of the right distractor was different from the target. It appears, therefore, that the attentional shift towards the ipsilesional side, typical of neglect patients, determines a surprising dissociation in motor control. In the presence of a right distractor, the patient plans and partially executes a reaching movement towards that object and simultaneously performs a grasping movement towards a second object, i.e. the centrally located target. The presentation of distractors had no effects on the prehension kinematics of the control subjects.

Effect of propranolol in head tremor: quantitative study following single-dose and sustained drug administration

The effect of the beta-adrenoceptor antagonist propranolol has been investigated in nine patients suffering from isolated (six patients) or prominent (three patients) essential tremor of the head. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled study the tremorolytic efficacy of propranolol has been assessed by a quantitative accelerometric method after a single oral dose (120 mg) and following 2 weeks of sustained treatment with two different dosage regimens of the drug (120 and 240 mg daily). As compared with placebo, a significant reduction in tremor magnitude was found following a single oral dose but not on sustained administration of the beta-blocker at either dosage. The results suggest that the efficacy of sustained propranolol on isolated or prominent essential head tremor is less predictable and satisfactory than expected on the basis of the single-dose response, as compared with hand tremor.

Quantitative comparison of barbiturates in essential hand and head tremor

The tremorolytic effects of primidone and phenobarbital in essential tremor of hands and head were compared in a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Quantitative measurements of tremor were obtained in 15 patients by means of an accelerometric method. Only primidone proved to be superior to placebo in reducing hand tremor, suggesting that its tremorolytic effectiveness is largely dependent on the parent drug rather than its metabolite phenobarbital. Head tremor tended to improve only in three out of six patients with both primidone and phenobarbital, but, likely due to the small number of affected patients, the effect failed to reach statistical significance.

The disposition of primidone in elderly patients

1. The pharmacokinetics and metabolism of primidone at steady-state were studied in 10 elderly patients aged 70-81 years and eight control subjects aged 18-26 years. 2. Primidone half-lives and clearance values (mean +/- s.d.) were similar in the elderly and in the young (12.1 +/- 4.6 vs 14.7 +/- 3.5 h and 34.8 +/- 9.0 vs 33.2 +/- 7.2 ml h-1 kg-1 respectively. 3. The serum concentrations of the metabolites phenylethylmalonamide (PEMA) and phenobarbitone relative to those of parent drug were higher in the elderly than in the young, the difference being significant (P less than 0.01) in the case of PEMA. 4. The renal clearances of primidone, phenobarbitone and PEMA were moderately decreased in the elderly but this reduction was statistically significant only for PEMA. Elderly patients excreted a reduced proportion of unchanged primidone and an increased proportion of PEMA in urine. 5. Ageing is associated with a greater accumulation of PEMA, which is unlikely to have a major clinical significance.

Tremor in Parkinson disease: acute response to oral levodopa

A single blind placebo-controlled study has been performed in order to investigate objectively the acute tremorolytic effect of oral L-Dopa in ten parkinsonians chronically treated with L-Dopa. Finger tremor was assessed by means of a computerized accelerometer method, at rest and during maintenance of a fixed posture. Both resting and postural tremor were significantly influenced by L-Dopa. An "acute test" with oral L-Dopa, especially when different tremor components are investigated, may be useful for identifying objectively parkinsonians whose tremor does not respond to drug therapy or shows a deterioration of drug-responsiveness.

Clinical and computer-based assessment of long-term therapeutic efficacy of propranolol in essential tremor

Despite a large number of studies demonstrating the effectiveness of propranolol in relieving essential tremor (ET) the long-term therapeutic outcome of these patients remains poorly defined. The results of a one-year follow-up study in 18 patients with mild to severe ET performed by using clinical and computer-based methods of assessment indicate that the initial therapeutic benefit of propranolol is apparently retained. However, following 3-6 months of sustained treatment a proportion of patients required an increase in daily dosage of propranolol in order to maintain adequate symptomatic control of tremor, indicating a relative decrease in tremorolytic efficacy of the drug possibly due to long-term tolerance.

Primidone in the long-term treatment of essential tremor: a prospective study with computerized quantitative analysis

The long-term efficacy of primidone (375-750 mg/day) in essential tremor was evaluated prospectively in 11 patients who had shown a favorable response to 4-week treatment with the drug under placebo-controlled conditions. On accelerometric evaluation, the magnitude of tremor after 3, 6, and 12 months on primidone was still significantly reduced compared with the initial placebo period. After discontinuation of primidone, tremor amplitude reverted to the placebo levels. Some loss of efficacy during long-term administration, however, was suggested by the results of self-assessment, physician's assessment, and performance tests. Three patients discontinued prematurely the drug because the sedative effects outweighed the potential therapeutic benefit. Side effects (especially drowsiness and sedation) were common at 4 weeks and 3 months but tended to subside thereafter. It is concluded that primidone retains at least part of its tremorolytic effect for up to 1 year, although the overall clinical benefit is limited in most patients.

The contribution of saccadic eye movements analysis, visual and auditory evoked responses to the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis

A number of tests have been used to identify paraclinical evidences of central nervous system (CNS) lesions in multiple sclerosis (MS). The present study was aimed to test and compare the diagnostic value of saccadic eye movements (SEM) analysis, and visual and auditory brain stem evoked responses (VER, ABER) in MS, and to study the correlation between electrophysiologic findings and clinical data. The reference group for epidemiological and statistical analysis was selected from the group of 109 suspected MS patients included in the study. SEM analysis resulted at least as sensitive as VER and ABER. SEM analysis showed good sensitivity and positive predictive value. Saccade latency resulted the most sensitive SEM parameter. Subclinical internuclear ophthalmoparesis resulted highly specific. We suggest that SEM analysis could be included into the electrophysiologic tests for identifying paraclinical evidences of CNS lesions in MS. Correlations between electrophysiologic findings and clinical data are discussed.

Double-blind comparison of primidone and phenobarbital in essential tremor

In a double-blind cross-over trial, primidone was superior to both placebo and phenobarbital in reducing essential tremor in 13 patients. Phenobarbital, at a dosage yielding serum barbiturate levels greater than those seen with primidone, was not better than placebo. Thus, primidone has an effect in essential tremor independent from that of its metabolite phenobarbital.