High-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints

The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. In this study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model leveraging recent household surveys and building footprints to produce up-to-date population estimates. We estimate population totals and age and sex breakdowns with associated uncertainty measures within grid cells of approximately 100 m in five provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a country where the last census was completed in 1984. The model exhibits a very good fit, with an R² value of 0.79 for out-of-sample predictions of population totals at the microcensus-cluster level and 1.00 for age and sex proportions at the province level. This work confirms the benefits of combining household surveys and building footprints for high-resolution population estimation in countries with outdated censuses.

A lack of up-to-date population figures may hamper effective decision-making. Here, the authors develop a Bayesian model to estimate population data at high resolution in five provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

A grid-based sample design framework for household surveys

Traditional sample designs for household surveys are contingent upon the availability of a representative primary sampling frame. This is defined using enumeration units and population counts retrieved from decennial national censuses that can become rapidly inaccurate in highly dynamic demographic settings. To tackle the need for representative sampling frames, we propose an original grid-based sample design framework introducing essential concepts of spatial sampling in household surveys. In this framework, the sampling frame is defined based on gridded population estimates and formalized as a bi-dimensional random field, characterized by spatial trends, spatial autocorrelation, and stratification. The sampling design reflects the characteristics of the random field by combining contextual stratification and proportional to population size sampling. A nonparametric estimator is applied to evaluate the sampling design and inform sample size estimation. We demonstrate an application of the proposed framework through a case study developed in two provinces located in the western part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We define a sampling frame consisting of settled cells with associated population estimates. We then perform a contextual stratification by applying a principal component analysis (PCA) and k-means clustering to a set of gridded geospatial covariates, and sample settled cells proportionally to population size. Lastly, we evaluate the sampling design by contrasting the empirical cumulative distribution function for the entire population of interest and its weighted counterpart across different sample sizes and identify an adequate sample size using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance between the two functions. The results of the case study underscore the strengths and limitations of the proposed grid-based sample design framework and foster further research into the application of spatial sampling concepts in household surveys.