Prediction models for post-discharge mortality among under-five children with suspected sepsis in Uganda: A multicohort analysis

In many low-income countries, over five percent of hospitalized children die following hospital discharge. The lack of available tools to identify those at risk of post-discharge mortality has limited the ability to make progress towards improving outcomes. We aimed to develop algorithms designed to predict post-discharge mortality among children admitted with suspected sepsis. Four prospective cohort studies of children in two age groups (0-6 and 6-60 months) were conducted between 2012-2021 in six Ugandan hospitals. Prediction models were derived for six-months post-discharge mortality, based on candidate predictors collected at admission, each with a maximum of eight variables, and internally validated using 10-fold cross-validation. 8,810 children were enrolled: 470 (5.3%) died in hospital; 257 (7.7%) and 233 (4.8%) post-discharge deaths occurred in the 0-6-month and 6-60-month age groups, respectively. The primary models had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.77 (95%CI 0.74-0.80) for 0-6-month-olds and 0.75 (95%CI 0.72-0.79) for 6-60-month-olds; mean AUROCs among the 10 cross-validation folds were 0.75 and 0.73, respectively. Calibration across risk strata was good: Brier scores were 0.07 and 0.04, respectively. The most important variables included anthropometry and oxygen saturation. Additional variables included: illness duration, jaundice-age interaction, and a bulging fontanelle among 0-6-month-olds; and prior admissions, coma score, temperature, age-respiratory rate interaction, and HIV status among 6-60-month-olds. Simple prediction models at admission with suspected sepsis can identify children at risk of post-discharge mortality. Further external validation is recommended for different contexts. Models can be digitally integrated into existing processes to improve peri-discharge care as children transition from the hospital to the community.

Mortality after hospital discharge among children younger than 5 years admitted with suspected sepsis in Uganda: a prospective, multisite, observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Substantial mortality occurs after hospital discharge in children younger than 5 years with suspected sepsis, especially in low-income countries. A better understanding of its epidemiology is needed for effective interventions to reduce child mortality in these countries. We evaluated risk factors for death after discharge in children admitted to hospital for suspected sepsis in Uganda, and assessed how these differed by age, time of death, and location of death.

METHODS

In this prospective, multisite, observational cohort study, we recruited and consecutively enrolled children aged 0-60 months admitted with suspected sepsis from the community to the paediatric wards of six Ugandan hospitals. Suspected sepsis was defined as the need for admission due to a suspected or proven infectious illness. At admission, trained study nurses systematically collected data on clinical variables, sociodemographic variables, and baseline characteristics with encrypted study tablets. Participants were followed up for 6 months after discharge by field officers who contacted caregivers at 2 months and 4 months after discharge by telephone and at 6 months after discharge in person to measure vital status, health-care seeking after discharge, and readmission details. We assessed 6-month mortality after hospital discharge among those discharged alive, with verbal autopsies conducted for children who had died after hospital discharge.

FINDINGS

Between July 13, 2017, and March 30, 2020, 16 991 children were screened for eligibility. 6545 children (2927 [44·72%] female children and 3618 [55·28%] male children) were enrolled and 6191 were discharged from hospital alive. 6073 children (2687 [44·2%] female children and 3386 [55·8%] male children) completed follow-up. 366 children died in the 6-month period after discharge (weighted mortality rate 5·5%). Median time from discharge to death was 28 days (IQR 9-74). For the 360 children for whom location of death was documented, deaths occurred at home (162 [45·0%]), in transit to care (66 [18·3%]), or in hospital (132 [36·7%]) during a subsequent readmission. Death after hospital discharge was strongly associated with weight-for-age Z scores less than -3 (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 4·7, 95% CI 3·7-5·8 vs a Z score of >-2), discharge or referral to a higher level of care (7·3, 5·6-9·5), and unplanned discharge (3·2, 2·5-4·0). Hazard ratios (HRs) for severe anaemia (<7g/dL) increased with time since discharge, from 1·7 (95% CI 0·9-3·0) for death occurring in the first time tertile to 5·2 (3·1-8·5) in the third time tertile. HRs for some discharge vulnerabilities decreased significantly with increasing time since discharge, including unplanned discharge (from 4.5 [2·9-6·9] in the first tertile to 2·0 [1·3-3·2] in the third tertile) and poor feeding status (from 7·7 [5·4-11·0] to 1·84 [1·0-3·3]). Age interacted with several variables, including reduced weight-for-age Z score, severe anaemia, and reduced admission temperature.

INTERPRETATION

Paediatric mortality following hospital discharge after suspected sepsis is common, with diminishing, although persistent, risk during the first 6 months after discharge. Efforts to improve outcomes after hospital discharge are crucial to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (ending preventable childhood deaths under age 5 years).

FUNDING

Grand Challenges Canada, Thrasher Research Fund, BC Children's Hospital Foundation, and Mining4Life.

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Regarding COVID-19 among Healthcare Workers in Uganda: A Cross-Sectional Survey

Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at high risk of COVID-19. However, data on HCWs' knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) toward COVID-19 are limited. Between September and November 2020, we conducted a questionnaire-based COVID-19 KAP survey among HCWs at three hospitals in Uganda. We used Bloom's cut-off of ≥80% to determine sufficient knowledge, good attitude, and good practice, and multivariate Poisson regression with robust variance for statistical analysis. Of 717 HCWs invited to participate, 657 (91.6%) agreed and were enrolled. The mean age (standard deviation) of enrollees was 33.2 (10.2) years; most were clinical HCWs (64.7%) and had advanced secondary school/other higher-level education (57.8%). Overall, 83.9% had sufficient knowledge, 78.4% had a positive attitude, and 37.0% had good practices toward COVID-19. Factors associated with KAP were: Knowledge: being a clinical HCW (aRR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.02-1.23) and previous participation in health research (aRR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.04-1.17); Attitude: age > 35 years (aRR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.79-0.98); Practice: being a clinical HCW (aRR: 1.91; 95% CI: 1.41-2.59). HCWs in Uganda have good knowledge and positive attitude but poor practices towards COVID-19. Differences in COVID-19 KAP between clinical and non-clinical HCWs could affect uptake of COVID-19 interventions including vaccination.

Willingness to participate in COVID-19 vaccine trials; a survey among a population of healthcare workers in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at high risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 and may therefore be a suitable population for COVID-19 vaccine trials. We conducted a survey to evaluate willingness-to-participate in COVID-19 vaccine trials in a population of HCWs at three hospitals in Uganda.

METHODS

The survey was conducted between September and November 2020. Using a standardised questionnaire, data were collected on socio-demographics, previous participation in health research, COVID-19 information sources, underlying health conditions, and willingness-to-participate in COVID-19 vaccine trials. Data were analysed descriptively and a binomial generalised linear model with a log link function used to investigate factors associated with unwillingness to participate.

RESULTS

657 HCWs (female, 63%) were enrolled with a mean age of 33 years (Standard Deviation, 10). Overall willingness-to-participate was 70.2%. Key motivating factors for participation were: hope of being protected against COVID-19 (81.1%), altruism (73.3%), and the opportunity to get health care (26.0%). Selected hypothetical trial attributes reduced willingness-to-participate as follows: weekly-quarterly study visits over a 12-month period (70.2%-63.2%, P = 0.026); provision of approximately 50ml of blood at each study visit (70.2%-63.2%, P = 0.026); risk of mild-moderate local adverse reactions (70.2%-60.3%, P<0.001); chance of receiving candidate vaccine or placebo (70.2%-56.9%, P<0.001); and delay of pregnancy [Overall, 70.2%-57.1% P<0.001); Female, 62.8%-48.4% (P = 0.002); Male, 82.5%-71.5% (P = 0.003)]. Collectively, these attributes reduced willingness-to-participate from [70.2%-42.2% (P<0.001) overall; 82.5%-58.1% (P<0.001) in men; 62.8%-32.6% (P<0.001) in women]. Among individuals that were unwilling to participate, the commonest barriers were concerns over vaccine safety (54.6%) and fear of catching SARS-CoV-2 (31.6%). Unwillingness to participate was associated with being female (aRR 1.97, CI 1.46-2.67, P<0.001) and having university or other higher-level education (aRR 1.52, CI 1.05-2.2, P = 0.026).

CONCLUSIONS

Willingness-to-participate in COVID-19 vaccine trials among HCWs in Uganda is high but may be affected by vaccine trial requirements and concerns about the safety of candidate vaccines.