External validation and updating of prediction models of bleeding risk in patients with cancer receiving anticoagulants

OBJECTIVE

Patients with cancer are at increased bleeding risk, and anticoagulants increase this risk even more. Yet, validated bleeding risk models for prediction of bleeding risk in patients with cancer are lacking. The aim of this study is to predict bleeding risk in anticoagulated patients with cancer.

METHODS

We performed a study using the routine healthcare database of the Julius General Practitioners' Network. Five bleeding risk models were selected for external validation. Patients with a new cancer episode during anticoagulant treatment or those initiating anticoagulation during active cancer were included. The outcome was the composite of major bleeding and clinically relevant non-major (CRNM) bleeding. Next, we internally validated an updated bleeding risk model accounting for the competing risk of death.

RESULTS

The validation cohort consisted of 1304 patients with cancer, mean age 74.0±10.9 years, 52.2% males. In total 215 (16.5%) patients developed a first major or CRNM bleeding during a mean follow-up of 1.5 years (incidence rate; 11.0 per 100 person-years (95% CI 9.6 to 12.5)). The c-statistics of all selected bleeding risk models were low, around 0.56. Internal validation of an updated model accounting for death as competing risk showed a slightly improved c-statistic of 0.61 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.70). On updating, only age and a history of bleeding appeared to contribute to the prediction of bleeding risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing bleeding risk models cannot accurately differentiate bleeding risk between patients. Future studies may use our updated model as a starting point for further development of bleeding risk models in patients with cancer.

Diastolic dysfunction and sex-specific progression to HFpEF: current gaps in knowledge and future directions

Diastolic dysfunction of the left ventricle (LVDD) is equally common in elderly women and men. LVDD is a condition that can remain latent for a long time but is also held responsible for elevated left ventricular filling pressures and high pulmonary pressures that may result in (exercise-induced) shortness of breath. This symptom is the hallmark of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) which is predominantly found in women as compared to men within the HF spectrum. Given the mechanistic role of LVDD in the development of HFpEF, we review risk factors and mechanisms that may be responsible for this sex-specific progression of LVDD towards HFpEF from an epidemiological point-of-view and propose future research directions.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic delay in pulmonary embolism

Background

Diagnostic delay in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) is typical, yet the proportion of patients with PE that experienced delay and for how many days is less well described, nor are determinants for such delay.

Objectives

This study aimed to assess the prevalence and extent of delay in diagnosing PE.

Methods

A systematic literature search was performed to identify articles reporting delays in diagnosing PE. The primary outcome was mean delay (in days) or a percentage of patients with diagnostic delay (defined as PE diagnosis more than seven days after symptom onset). The secondary outcome was determinants of delay. Random-effect meta-analyses were applied to calculate a pooled estimate for mean delay and to explore heterogeneity in subgroups.

Results

The literature search yielded 10,933 studies, of which 24 were included in the final analysis. The pooled estimate of the mean diagnostic delay based on 12 studies was 6.3 days (95% prediction interval 2.5 to 15.8). The percentage of patients having more than seven days of delay varied between 18% and 38%. All studies assessing the determinants of coughing (n = 3), chronic lung disease (n = 6) and heart failure (n = 8) found a positive association with diagnostic delay. Similarly, all studies assessing recent surgery (n = 7) and hypotension (n = 6), as well as most studies assessing chest pain (n = 8), found a negative association with diagnostic delay of PE.

Conclusion

Patients may have symptoms for almost one week before PE is diagnosed and in about a quarter of patients, the diagnostic delay is even longer.

Neutrophil and Eosinophil Responses Remain Abnormal for Several Months in Primary Care Patients With COVID-19 Disease

Introduction

Neutrophil and eosinophil activation and its relation to disease severity has been understudied in primary care patients with COVID-19. In this study, we investigated whether the neutrophil and eosinophil compartment were affected in primary care patients with COVID-19.

Methods

COVID-19 patients, aged ≥ 40 years with cardiovascular comorbidity presenting to the general practitioner with substantial symptoms, partaking in the COVIDSat@Home study between January and April 2021, were included. Blood was drawn during and 3 to 6 months after active COVID-19 disease and analyzed by automated flow cytometry, before and after stimulation with a formyl-peptide (fNLF). Mature neutrophil and eosinophil markers at both time points were compared to healthy controls. A questionnaire was conducted on disease symptoms during and 3 to 6 months after COVID-19 disease.

Results

The blood of 18 COVID-19 patients and 34 healthy controls was analyzed. During active COVID-19 disease, neutrophils showed reduced CD10 (p = 0.0360), increased CD11b (p = 0.0002) and decreased CD62L expression (p < 0.0001) compared to healthy controls. During active COVID-19 disease, fNLF stimulated neutrophils showed decreased CD10 levels (p < 0.0001). Three to six months after COVID-19 disease, unstimulated neutrophils showed lowered CD62L expression (p = 0.0003) and stimulated neutrophils had decreased CD10 expression (p = 0.0483) compared to healthy controls. Both (un)stimulated CD10 levels increased 3 to 6 months after active disease (p = 0.0120 and p < 0.0001, respectively) compared to during active disease. Eosinophil blood counts were reduced during active COVID-19 disease and increased 3 to 6 months after infection (p < 0.0001). During active COVID-19, eosinophils showed increased unstimulated CD11b (p = 0.0139) and decreased (un)stimulated CD62L expression (p = 0.0036 and p = 0.0156, respectively) compared to healthy controls. Three to six months after COVID-19 disease, (un)stimulated eosinophil CD62L expression was decreased (p = 0.0148 and p = 0.0063, respectively) and the percentage of CD11bbright cells was increased (p = 0.0083 and p = 0.0307, respectively) compared to healthy controls.

Conclusion

Automated flow cytometry analysis reveals specific mature neutrophil and eosinophil activation patterns in primary care patients with COVID-19 disease, during and 3 to 6 months after active disease. This suggests that the neutrophil and eosinophil compartment are long-term affected by COVID-19 in primary care patients. This indicates that these compartments may be involved in the pathogenesis of long COVID.

Determinants of label non-adherence to non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants in patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation

Aims

To evaluate the extent and determinants of off-label non-vitamin K oral anticoagulant (NOAC) dosing in newly diagnosed Dutch AF patients.

Methods and results

In the DUTCH-AF registry, patients with newly diagnosed AF (&lt;6 months) are prospectively enrolled. Label adherence to NOAC dosing was assessed using the European Medicines Agency labelling. Factors associated with off-label dosing were explored by multivariable logistic regression analyses. From July 2018 to November 2020, 4500 patients were registered. The mean age was 69.6 ± 10.5 years, and 41.5% were female. Of the 3252 patients in which NOAC label adherence could be assessed, underdosing and overdosing were observed in 4.2% and 2.4%, respectively. In 2916 (89.7%) patients with a full-dose NOAC recommendation, 4.6% were underdosed, with a similar distribution between NOACs. Independent determinants (with 95% confidence interval) were higher age [odds ratio (OR): 1.01 per year, 1.01–1.02], lower renal function (OR: 0.96 per ml/min/1.73 m2, 0.92–0.98), lower weight (OR: 0.98 per kg, 0.97–1.00), active malignancy (OR: 2.46, 1.19–5.09), anaemia (OR: 1.73, 1.08–2.76), and concomitant use of antiplatelets (OR: 4.93, 2.57–9.46). In the 336 (10.3%) patients with a reduced dose NOAC recommendation, 22.9% were overdosed, most often with rivaroxaban. Independent determinants were lower age (OR: 0.92 per year, 0.88–0.96) and lower renal function (OR: 0.98 per ml/min/1.73 m2, 0.96–1.00).

Conclusion

In newly diagnosed Dutch AF patients, off-label dosing of NOACs was seen in only 6.6% of patients, most often underdosing. In this study, determinants of off-label dosing were age, renal function, weight, anaemia, active malignancy, and concomitant use of antiplatelets.

Management of superficial venous thrombosis based on individual risk profiles: protocol for the development and validation of three prognostic prediction models in large primary care cohorts

BACKGROUND

Superficial venous thrombosis (SVT) is considered a benign thrombotic condition in most patients. However, it also can cause serious complications, such as clot progression to deep venous thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE). Although most SVT patients are encountered in primary healthcare, studies on SVT nearly all were focused on patients seen in the hospital setting. This paper describes the protocol of the development and external validation of three prognostic prediction models for relevant clinical outcomes in SVT patients seen in primary care: (i) prolonged (painful) symptoms within 14 days since SVT diagnosis, (ii) for clot progression to DVT or PE within 45 days and (iii) for clot recurrence within 12 months.

METHODS

Data will be used from four primary care routine healthcare registries from both the Netherlands and the UK; one UK registry will be used for the development of the prediction models and the remaining three will be used as external validation cohorts. The study population will consist of patients ≥18 years with a diagnosis of SVT. Selection of SVT cases will be based on a combination of ICPC/READ/Snowmed coding and free text clinical symptoms. Predictors considered are sex, age, body mass index, clinical SVT characteristics, and co-morbidities including (history of any) cardiovascular disease, diabetes, autoimmune disease, malignancy, thrombophilia, pregnancy or puerperium and presence of varicose veins. The prediction models will be developed using multivariable logistic regression analysis techniques for models i and ii, and for model iii, a Cox proportional hazards model will be used. They will be validated by internal-external cross-validation as well as external validation.

DISCUSSION

There are currently no prediction models available for predicting the risk of serious complications for SVT patients presenting in primary care settings. We aim to develop and validate new prediction models that should help identify patients at highest risk for complications and to support clinical decision making for this understudied thrombo-embolic disorder. Challenges that we anticipate to encounter are mostly related to performing research in large, routine healthcare databases, such as patient selection, endpoint classification, data harmonisation, missing data and avoiding (predictor) measurement heterogeneity.

Training general practitioners to improve evidence-based drug treatment of patients with heart failure: a cluster randomised controlled trial

Aims

To assess whether a single training session for general practitioners (GPs) improves the evidence-based drug treatment of heart failure (HF) patients, especially of those with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

Methods and results

A cluster randomised controlled trial was performed for which patients with established HF were eligible. Primary care practices (PCPs) were randomised to care-as-usual or to the intervention group in which GPs received a half-day training session on HF management. Changes in HF medication, health status, hospitalisation and survival were compared between the two groups. Fifteen PCPs with 200 HF patients were randomised to the intervention group and 15 PCPs with 198 HF patients to the control group. Mean age was 76.9 (SD 10.8) years; 52.5% were female. On average, the patients had been diagnosed with HF 3.0 (SD 3.0) years previously. In total, 204 had HFrEF and 194 HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). In participants with HFrEF, the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers decreased in 6 months in both groups [5.2%; (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0–10.0)] and 5.6% (95% CI 2.8–13.4)], respectively [baseline-corrected odds ratio (OR) 1.07 (95% CI 0.55–2.08)], while beta-blocker use increased in both groups by 5.2% (95% CI 2.0–10.0) and 1.1% (95% CI 0.2–6.3), respectively [baseline-corrected OR 0.82 (95% CI 0.42–1.61)]. For health status, hospitalisations or survival after 12–28 months there were no significant differences between the two groups, also not when separately analysed for HFrEF and HFpEF.

Conclusion

A half-day training session for GPs does not improve drug treatment of HF in patients with established HF.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s12471-020-01487-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Mortality after hospital admission for heart failure: improvement over time, equally strong in women as in men

Background

To assess the trend in age- and sex-stratified mortality after hospitalization for heart failure (HF) in the Netherlands.

Methods

Two nationwide cohorts of patients, hospitalized for new onset heart failure between 01.01.2000–31.12.2002 and between 01.01.2008–31.12.2010, were constructed by linkage of the Dutch Hospital Discharge Registry and the National Cause of Death registry. 30-day, 1-year and 5 -year overall and cause-specific mortality rates stratified by age and sex were assessed and compared over time.

Results

We identified 40,230 men and 41,582 women. In both cohorts, men were on average younger than women (74–75 and 78–79 years, respectively) and more often had comorbid conditions (37 and 30%, respectively). In the 2008–10 cohort, mortality rates for men were 13, 32 and 64% for respectively 30-day, 1-year and 5-year mortality and 14, 33 and 66% for women. Mortality rates increased considerably with age similarly in men and women (e.g. from 10.5% in women aged 25–54 to 46.1% in those aged 85 and older after 1 year). Between the two time periods, mortality rates dropped across all ages, equally strong in women as in men. The 1-year absolute risk of death declined by 4.0% (from 36.1 to 32.1%) in men and 3.2% (from 36.2 to 33.0%) in women.

Conclusions

Mortality after hospitalization for new onset HF remains high, however, both short-term and long-term survival is improving over time. This improvement was similar across all ages and equally strong in women as in men.

P2604Clinical features associated with the development of diastolic dysfunction

Background/Introduction

Treatment for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is still elusive, which is a serious problem given the fact that it affects approximately 8 million people in Europe. Diastolic dysfunction (DD) is considered a precursor of HFpEF and could serve as a target for prevention. However, it is yet unclear which clinical features are associated with the development of diastolic dysfunction in men and women.

Purpose

To determine which clinical features are associated with the development of diastolic dysfunction in men and women visiting a cardiology outpatient clinic.

Methods

All individuals who visited one of the 13 Cardiology Centers Netherlands locations at least twice between April and 2007 and February 2018 for an echocardiographic evaluation were eligible for inclusion. Participants with incomplete data on diastolic function parameters or diastolic dysfunction at baseline were excluded. Information on age, sex, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), blood lipid levels, kidney function, cardiac history, co-morbidities and cardiovascular drug use was obtained for all participants. Diastolic function was scored based on E/e', relative wall thickness (RWT) and left-atrial dimension indexed by body surface area (LAD/BSA). The score allotted zero points for E/e' ≤8, RWT ≤0.41 and LAD/BSA ≤2.3, one point for E/e' between 9–14, RWT >0.42 and LAD/BSA >2.3, and two points for E/e' ≥15. Development of DD was defined as an increase in diastolic function score between the first and second echo. Missing data on determinants (max 26%) was imputed using multiple imputation. A stepwise logistic regression based on AIC was applied to evaluate the association between selected clinical features and DD. All analyses were performed in R.

Results

The study population comprised 1301 patients with a mean age of 56 (± 11) years and 46% were women. The median time between echo appointments was 631 (IQR: 381–1132) days and 549 patients developed DD (42%). After stepwise regression, the final model included age, sex, BMI, SBP, triglycerides and hypertension. DD was less likely to occur in men compared with women (OR=0.62, 95% CI: 0.57–0.67), and more likely in patients with hypertension (OR=1.29, 95% CI: 1.18–1.42) after adjustment. The adjusted risk for DD increased with triglyceride level (OR=1.24, 95% CI: 1.19–1.29), age (OR=1.04 per year, 95% CI: 1.03–1.04), BMI (OR=1.03 per kg/m2, 95% CI: 1.01–1.04) and SBP (OR=1.01 per 1 mmHg, 95% CI: 1.006–1.011) (Figure 1).

Figure 1

Conclusion(s)

Women and those with hypertension were at higher risk of developing DD compared to their male or normotensive counterparts. Age, triglyceride levels, BMI and SBP were also independently associated with an increased risk for DD. Prevention efforts focussing on life style changed and possibly lipid and blood pressure lowering drugs may reduce the risk of developing DD.

Predictive performance of the CHA2DS2-VASc rule in atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Essentials The widely recommended CHA2DS2-VASc shows conflicting results in contemporary validation studies. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of 19 studies validating CHA2DS2-VASc. There was high heterogeneity in stroke risks for different CHA2DS2-VASc scores. This was not explained by differences between setting of care, or by performing meta-regression.

SUMMARY

Background The CHA2DS2-VASc decision rule is widely recommended for estimating stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), although validation studies show ambiguous and conflicting results. Objectives To: (i) review existing studies validating CHA2DS2-VASc in AF patients who are not (yet) anticoagulated; (ii) meta-analyze estimates of stroke risk per score; and (iii) explore sources of heterogeneity across the validation studies. Methods We performed a systematic literature review and random effects meta-analysis of studies externally validating CHA2DS2-VASc in AF patients not receiving anticoagulants. To explore between-study heterogeneity in stroke risk, we stratified studies to the clinical setting in which patient enrollment started, and performed meta-regression. Results In total, 19 studies were evaluated, with over two million person-years of follow-up. In studies recruiting AF patients in hospitals, stroke risks for scores of 0, 1 and 2 were 0.4% (approximate 95% prediction interval [PI] 0.2-3.2%), 1.2% (95% PI 0.1-3.8%), and 2.2% (95% PI 0.03-7.8%), respectively. These were consistently higher than those in studies recruiting patients from the open general population, with risks of 0.2% (95% PI 0.0-0.9%), 0.7% (95% PI 0.3-1.2%) and 1.5% (95% PI 0.4-3.3%) for scores of 0, 1, and 2, respectively. Heterogeneity, as reflected by the wide PIs, could not be fully explained by meta-regression. Conclusions Studies validating CHA2DS2-VASc show high heterogeneity in predicted stroke risks for different scores.

The effects of misclassification in routine healthcare databases on the accuracy of prognostic prediction models: a case study of the CHA2DS2-VASc score in atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Research on prognostic prediction models frequently uses data from routine healthcare. However, potential misclassification of predictors when using such data may strongly affect the studied associations. There is no doubt that such misclassification could lead to the derivation of suboptimal prediction models. The extent to which misclassification affects the validation of existing prediction models is currently unclear.We aimed to quantify the amount of misclassification in routine care data and its effect on the validation of the existing risk prediction model. As an illustrative example, we validated the CHA2DS2-VASc prediction rule for predicting mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS

In a prospective cohort in general practice in the Netherlands, we used computerized retrieved data from the electronic medical records of patients known with AF as index predictors. Additionally, manually collected data after scrutinizing all complete medical files were used as reference predictors. Comparing the index with the reference predictors, we assessed misclassification in individual predictors by calculating Cohen's kappas and other diagnostic test accuracy measures. Predictive performance was quantified by the c-statistic and by determining calibration of multivariable models.

RESULTS

In total, 2363 AF patients were included. After a median follow-up of 2.7 (IQR 2.3-3.0) years, 368 patients died (incidence rate 6.2 deaths per 100 person-years). Misclassification in individual predictors ranged from substantial (Cohen's kappa 0.56 for prior history of heart failure) to minor (kappa 0.90 for a history of type 2 diabetes). The overall model performance was not affected when using either index or reference predictors, with a c-statistic of 0.684 and 0.681, respectively, and similar calibration.

CONCLUSION

In a case study validating the CHA2DS2-VASc prediction model, we found substantial predictor misclassification in routine healthcare data with only limited effect on overall model performance. Our study should be repeated for other often applied prediction models to further evaluate the usefulness of routinely available healthcare data for validating prognostic models in the presence of predictor misclassification.

Uncovering heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in patients with type 2 diabetes in primary care: time for a change

Undetected heart failure appears to be an important health problem in patients with type 2 diabetes and aged ≥ 60 years. The prevalence of previously unknown heart failure in these patients is high, steeply rises with age, and is overall higher in women than in men. The majority of the patients with newly detected heart failure have a preserved ejection fraction. A diagnostic algorithm to detect or exclude heart failure in these patients with variables from the medical files combined with items from history taking and physical examination provides a good to excellent accuracy. Annual screening appears to be cost-effective. Both unrecognised heart failure with reduced and with preserved ejection fraction were associated with a clinically relevant lower health status in patients with type 2 diabetes. Also the prognosis of these patients was worse than of those without heart failure. Existing disease-management programs for type 2 diabetes pay insufficient attention to early detection of cardiovascular diseases, including heart failure. We conclude that more attention is needed for detection of heart failure in older patients with type 2 diabetes.

[Triage in primary care: overkill?]

Based on triage during out-of-hours emergency services with physical contact with patients, the Dutch Triage Standard - a telephone triage algorithm - has been developed for use in primary care out-of-hours services. However, it is also used in the daytime setting. We argue that this tool should be evaluated by actually evaluating the telephone contacts that are backed up during triage and using the final diagnoses of these contacts as the reference standard. We have serious doubts whether the Dutch Triage Standard is an effective tool in the primary care daytime setting with its very low prevalence of high urgency. Adequate triage is time consuming, and may result in reduced accessibility thus creating critical situations. Well-evaluated pilots should precede large-scale implementation of decision support systems.

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in women: the Dutch Queen of Hearts program

Heart failure (HF) poses a heavy burden on patients, their families and society. The syndrome of HF comes in two types: with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). The latter is on the increase and predominantly present in women, especially the older ones. There is an urgent need for mortality-reducing drugs in HFpEF, a disease affecting around 5 % of those aged 65 years and over. HFpEF develops in patients with risk factors and comorbidities such as obesity, hypertension, diabetes, COPD, but also preeclampsia. These conditions are likely to drive microvascular disease with involvement of the coronary microvasculature, which may eventually evolve into HFpEF. Currently, the diagnosis of HFPEF relies mainly on echocardiography. There are no biomarkers that can help diagnose female microvascular disease or facilitate the diagnosis of (early stages of) HFpEF. Recently a Dutch consortium was initiated, Queen of Hearts, with support from the Netherlands Heart Foundation, with the aim to discover and validate biomarkers for diastolic dysfunction and HFpEF in women. These biomarkers come from innovative blood-derived sources such as extracellular vesicles and circulating cells. Within the Queen of Hearts consortium, we will pursue female biomarkers that have the potential for further evolution in assays with point of care capabilities. As a spin-off, the consortium will gain knowledge on gender-specific pathology of HFpEF, possibly opening up novel treatment options.

Reduced in-hospital survival rates of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest victims with obstructive pulmonary disease

AIM

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) due to sustained ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation (VT/VF) is common and often lethal. Patient's co-morbidities may determine survival after OHCA, and be instrumental in post-resuscitation care, but are poorly studied. We aimed to study whether patients with obstructive pulmonary disease (OPD) have a lower survival rate after OHCA than non-OPD patients.

METHODS

We performed a community-based cohort study of 1172 patients with non-traumatic OHCA with ECG-documented VT/VF between 2005 and 2008. We compared survival to emergency room (ER), to hospital admission, to hospital discharge, and at 30 days after OHCA, of OPD-patients and non-OPD patients, using logistic regression analysis. We also compared 30-day survival of patients who were admitted to hospital, using multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

OPD patients (n=178) and non-OPD patients (n=994) had comparable survival to ER (75% vs. 78%, OR 0.9 [95% CI: 0.6-1.3]) and to hospital admission (56% vs. 57%, OR 1.0 [0.7-1.4]). However, survival to hospital discharge was significantly lower among OPD patients (21% vs. 33%, OR 0.6 [0.4-0.9]). Multivariate regression analysis among patients who were admitted to hospital (OPD: n=100, no OPD: n=561) revealed that OPD was an independent determinant of reduced 30-day survival rate (39% vs. 59%, adjusted OR 0.6 [0.4-1.0, p=0.035]).

CONCLUSION

OPD-patients had lower survival rates after OHCA than non-OPD patients. Survival to ER and to hospital admission was not different between both groups. However, among OHCA victims who survived to hospital admission, OPD was an independent determinant of reduced 30-day survival rate.

High prevalence of previously unknown heart failure and left ventricular dysfunction in patients with type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of (unknown) heart failure and left ventricular dysfunction in older patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

In total, 605 patients aged 60 years or over with type 2 diabetes in the south west of the Netherlands participated in this cross-sectional study (response rate 48.7%), including 24 with a cardiologist-confirmed diagnosis of heart failure. Between February 2009 and March 2010, the patients without known heart failure underwent a standardised diagnostic work-up, including medical history, physical examination, ECG and echocardiography. An expert panel used the criteria of the European Society of Cardiology to diagnose heart failure.

RESULTS

Of the 581 patients studied, 161 (27.7%; 95% CI 24.1%, 31.4%) were found to have previously unknown heart failure: 28 (4.8%; 95% CI 3.1%, 6.6%) with reduced ejection fraction, and 133 (22.9%; 95% CI 19.5%, 26.3%) with preserved ejection fraction. The prevalence of heart failure increased steeply with age. Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction was more common in women. Left ventricular dysfunction was diagnosed in 150 patients (25.8%; 95% CI 22.3%, 29.4%); 146 (25.1%; 95% CI 21.6%, 28.7%) had diastolic dysfunction.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

This is the first epidemiological study that provides exact prevalence estimates of (previously unknown) heart failure and left ventricular dysfunction in a representative sample of patients with type 2 diabetes. Previously unknown heart failure and left ventricular dysfunction are highly prevalent. Physicians should pay special attention to 'unmasking' these patients.

Diagnosing acute coronary syndrome in primary care: comparison of the physicians' risk estimation and a clinical decision rule

BACKGROUND

Diagnosing acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in a primary care setting poses a diagnostic dilemma for physicians.

OBJECTIVE

We directly compared the diagnostic accuracy of a clinical decision rule (CDR) based on history taking and physical examination in suspected ACS with the risk estimates of the attending GP.

METHODS

In a prospective multicenter study, patients suspected of ACS were included by the GP. GPs were asked to estimate the probability (0%-100%) of the presence of ACS. GPs collected patient data, but they were not aware of the CDR and did not score the patient accordingly.

RESULTS

Two hundred and ninety-eight patients were included (52% female, mean age 66 years, 22% ACS). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was 0.75 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-0.82] for the GP risk estimate and 0.66 (95% CI 0.58-0.73) for the CDR. There was an agreement between the risk estimation of the GP and a CDR in 51% and the prevalence of ACS in predefined low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups was similar for the GP and CDR estimates. In the low-risk group, according to the GP, four patients (8.2%) suffered an ACS. These four patients were all identified by the decision rule as high risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The GP classified patients as ACS or no ACS more adequately than the CDR, judged by the AUC. However, the use of a CDR in patients that are considered at low risk for ACS by the GP could reduce the amount of missed myocardial infarctions.

[Summary of the practice guideline 'Heart failure' (first revision) from the Dutch College of General Practitioners]

The guideline entitled 'Heart failure' from the Dutch College of General Practitioners has been revised. The general practitioner makes the diagnosis of heart failure in a patient with the core symptoms (dyspnoea, fatigue, oedema) in combination with paroxysmal nocturnal dyspnoea, orthopnoea, crepitations, elevated central-venous pressure, a third heart sound or ifictus cordis is visible outside the mid-clavicular line. Further investigations include a panel of laboratory investigations, an ECG and possibly echocardiography and radiographic chest investigations. One new recommendation is that on suspicion of heart failure the plasma concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) or N-terminal pro-BNP should be investigated. The step-by-step medication plan has been changed; beta-blockers have been introduced to the plan. In the treatment of acute heart failure, rapidly working sublingual nitrates should be given first and foremost.

[Summary of the practice guideline 'Stable angina pectoris' (second revision) from the Dutch College of General Practitioners]

Typical angina pectoris is characterised by retrosternal complaints that are provoked by exertion, cold, emotional stress or heavy meals and are relieved by rest within 15 minutes or within a few minutes of using sublingual nitroglycerin. If 2 or 3 of these symptoms are present then the term 'atypical angina pectoris' is used. The general practitioner can estimate the risk of significant coronary artery disease on the basis of the anamnesis. Additional diagnostics in the form of an exercise ECG is only worthwhile if the pretest probability of coronary artery disease lies between 30% and 70% (atypical angina pectoris) and not if the diagnosis is extremely likely or extremely unlikely. Patients with angina pectoris should be informed about the alarm symptoms which can be indicative of unstable angina pectoris or acute myocardial infarction. Sublingual nitrate therapy is used for the short-term control of angina. If more than 2 attacks per week occur, a maintenance treatment consisting of beta-blockers, nitrates, or calcium channel blockers should be started in this order of preference. For secondary prevention, acetylsalicylic acid and statins should be prescribed and lifestyle advice should be given, such as smoking cessation, sufficient physical exercise and a healthy diet.

Electrocardiography in primary care; is it useful?

Little is known about the value of electrocardiography in primary care.

AIMS

To assess whether electrocardiography (ECG) is a useful instrument, in addition to history taking and physical examination, in that it changes the general practitioner's management of patients with suspected cardiovascular symptoms or disease.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed a prospective study in a group practice of eight general practitioners in The Netherlands. During 2 years all ECGs that were recorded in these practices were studied. Two questionnaires were filled out by the general practitioners, one before and one after the ECG recording, to determine indication for electrocardiography, the general practitioner's anticipated management before and after ECG results, and the subjective usefulness according to the applying doctor. All ECGs were reviewed by an experienced general practitioner working in the group practice and later on by a cardiologist. In addition, all clinical information, including the 6 months follow-up period, was scrutinised by both the cardiologist and general practitioner to establish the patients' prognosis. A total of 301 ECGs was included in the analysis. Main indications for electrocardiography were chest pain (57%), and collapse or palpitation (30%). In 92 (30.6%; 95% CI 25.4-35.8) patients a change in management by the general practitioner occurred following the ECG results. Most prevalent changes were non-referral to a cardiologist, while referral was anticipated before the ECG results (34%), referral while the patient would not have been referred without ECG results (20%), and change in cardiovascular therapy (40%). In one of these cases only, this change could be considered unfavourable, since a subendocardial infarction, not detectable on the ECG, was missed. In patients with chest pain, a normal ECG (likelihood ratio (LR) 0.06) and an abnormal ECG (LR 13.3) were very useful to distinguish between patients likely or unlikely to experience cardiac events in the near future. The mean subjective usefulness, on a scale of 0-100, of the ECG evaluation according to the applying general practitioner was 77. 5 (S.D. 14.4). There was good agreement in ECG interpretation between the experienced general practitioner, the cardiologist and a second general practitioner.

CONCLUSION

Electrocardiography in addition to history taking and physical examination, may be an important tool in primary care. It can reduce considerably the number of unnecessary referrals.