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Millard J, Outhwaite CL, Ceaușu S, Carvalheiro LG, da Silva e Silva FD, Dicks LV, Ollerton J, Newbold T. Key tropical crops at risk from pollinator loss due to climate change and land use. Sci Adv 2023; 9:eadh0756. [PMID: 37824611 PMCID: PMC10569713 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adh0756] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2023] [Accepted: 09/07/2023] [Indexed: 10/14/2023]
Abstract
Insect pollinator biodiversity is changing rapidly, with potential consequences for the provision of crop pollination. However, the role of land use-climate interactions in pollinator biodiversity changes, as well as consequent economic effects via changes in crop pollination, remains poorly understood. We present a global assessment of the interactive effects of climate change and land use on pollinator abundance and richness and predictions of the risk to crop pollination from the inferred changes. Using a dataset containing 2673 sites and 3080 insect pollinator species, we show that the interactive combination of agriculture and climate change is associated with large reductions in insect pollinators. As a result, it is expected that the tropics will experience the greatest risk to crop production from pollinator losses. Localized risk is highest and predicted to increase most rapidly, in regions of sub-Saharan Africa, northern South America, and Southeast Asia. Via pollinator loss alone, climate change and agricultural land use could be a risk to human well-being.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joseph Millard
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Charlotte L. Outhwaite
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Silvia Ceaușu
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Luísa G. Carvalheiro
- Department of Ecology, Federal University of Goiás, Goiânia, GO 74690-900, Brazil
- Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Change (CE3C), University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Felipe Deodato da Silva e Silva
- Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Mato Grosso (IFMT)—Campus Barra do Garças, Barra do Garças, MT 78600-000, Brazil
| | - Lynn V. Dicks
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
| | - Jeff Ollerton
- Faculty of Arts, Science and Technology, University of Northampton, University Drive, Northampton, NN1 5PH UK
| | - Tim Newbold
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
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