Evolutionary trends of the COVID-19 epidemic and effectiveness of government interventions in Nigeria: A data-driven analysis

Background

Nigeria became the first sub Saharan African country to record a case of COVID-19 after an imported case from Italy was confirmed on February 27, 2020. Moving averages and the Epidemic Evaluation Indices (EEI) are two important but complementary methods useful in monitoring epidemic trends, they can also serve as a useful guide for policy makers and inform the timing of decisions on preventive measures. The objectives of this paper are to graphically depict the trends of new COVID-19 cases nationally and in two key States (Lagos and Kano) and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) using the moving averages and the EEI. In addition, we examined the effects of government's public health interventions on the spread of COVID-19 and appraise the progress made so far in addressing the challenges of COVID-19 in Nigeria.

Methods

We used data on new cases of COVID-19 from public sources released by the Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC) from the 27th February 2020, when the first case was recorded, to 11th May, 2020, one week after the lockdowns in Lagos and the FCT were lifted. We computed moving averages of various orders, the log transformations of the moving averages and then the EEIs of new COVID-19 cases for Nigeria as a whole, and then for two of the most affected states i.e. Lagos and Kano, as well as the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Then, we plotted graphs to depict these indices and show the epidemic trends for COVID-19 in each scenario.

Results

Nationally, the number of new cases of COVID-19 showed an initial gradual rise from the first reported case on the 27th February 2020. However, by the second week in April, these numbers began to show a relatively sharper increase and this trend has continued till date. Similar trends were observed in Lagos state and the FCT. The rate of growth of the logarithm-transformed moving average in the period leading to, and including the lockdowns reduced by a factor of 0.65. This suggests that the policies put in place by the government including the lockdown measures in Lagos and the FCT may have had a positive effect on the development of new cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Nationally and in Lagos, the EEIs of the COVID-19 cases started off on very high notes, however, the effects of the lockdown gradually became evident by the end of April and early May 2020, as the EEIs headed closer to 1.0. In all case scenarios, the EEIs are still above 1.0.

Conclusions and recommendations

The number of new cases of COVID-19 has been on a steady rise since the first reported case. In Nigeria especially across the two states and the FCT, public health interventions including the lockdown measures appear to have played a role in reducing the rate of increase of new infections. The EEIs are still above 1.0, suggesting that despite the progress that appears to have been made, the epidemic is still evolving and Nigeria has not yet reached her peak for COVID-19 cases. We recommend that aggressive public health interventions and restrictions against mass gatherings should be sustained.

Frequency of relapse among Nigerian children with steroid-sensitive nephrotic syndrome

BACKGROUND

The clinical course of steroid-sensitive nephrotic syndrome (SSNS) among Nigerian children has rarely been reported; this makes prognostication difficult.

OBJECTIVES

The objective was to determine the frequency of relapses including frequent relapses (FR) and steroid-dependence (SD) in a cohort of Nigerian children with SSNS. A secondary objective was to identify clinical and demographic factors associated with relapse in these children.

METHODS

Medical records of children with SSNS in a Tertiary Hospital in Nigeria were reviewed. Children with onset of nephrotic syndrome (NS) at age <1-year, follow-up period <12 months and secondary causes of NS were excluded. The relapse status of each child was determined in the 1st and 2nd year after diagnosis and the proportions with no relapse, FR and SD were calculated.

RESULTS

Fifty children (68% males; median [range] age at onset of NS 4.8 [1.1-14.9] years) were followed-up for 31.1 (12.1-79.8) months. In the 1st and 2nd year of follow-up, 23 (46%) and 24 (70.6%) children experienced relapse, respectively. In the 1st-year, 0% and 10% had FR and SD while in the 2nd year 2.9% and 11.8% had FR and SD, respectively. Age at onset of NS, gender, time to first remission, serum creatinine or presence of hypertension or microscopic hematuria was not associated with 1st or 2nd year relapse.

CONCLUSION

About half and two-thirds of children with NS in our center experience relapse in the 1st and 2nd year of follow-up, respectively; much fewer proportions experienced FR and SD in these periods. None of the commonly reported demographic and clinical factors was associated with NS relapse.

Clinical neuropsychiatric correlates and EEG findings among children with developmental disorders in Lagos, Nigeria

OBJECTIVE

Developmental disorders with or without associated neuropsychiatric complications continue to be one of the major health problems in Africa. The grossly inadequate management/ rehabilitative facilities further worsen this. A prospective study aimed at finding the types of developmental disorders and associated neuropsychiatric complications among children aged </=15 years that presented with developmental disorder in the study centers over 36 month study duration.

METHODS

The study was carried out in the paediatric and child psychiatric clinics as well as the Electroencephalographic (EEG) unit of two major health facilities in Lagos, Nigeria: Lagos University Teaching Hospital (LUTH) and Psychiatric Hospital, Yaba, Lagos. For each subject, socio-demographic data was obtained and appropriate clinical evaluation was carried out to obtain the necessary data and clinical diagnoses. Furthermore, each of the subjects had waking EEG recording using 20-channel computerized Medelec(R)EEG machine. The EEG interpretation was blinded to the clinical history of the subjects.

RESULTS

Overall, one hundred and eleven (111) subjects were evaluated over the 36 month study period. The cohort was made up of 63 (56.8%) males and 48 (43.2%) females. The mean age was 4.8 (+/-3.9) years, with most subjects falling in the age group of 0-5 years(69.4%). Mixed specific developmental disorders were most common (55%) followed by that of specific developmental disorders of speech and language (34.2%). Forty-one (36.9%) subjects suffered from one or more types of complications, with seizure, 22(19.8%) being the most common. The waking EEG recording was normal in 22 (19.8%) subjects; while abnormal epileptiform activities were found in 85 (76.6%) of recordings. No statistically significant relationship existed between EEG abnormalities and the factors of age and clinical diagnoses (i.e developmental abnormalities).

CONCLUSION

The small number of subjects in this study is a major hindrance to drawing a general conclusion. However, it has been shown that a number of the cohort in addition to their developmental disorders suffered from such complications as seizures, hyperactivity etc. Furthermore, a significant proportion had EEG abnormalities of the epileptiform types possibly reinforcing the previously known fact of prevalent subtle brain damage among African children. The need for preventive health care is therefore emphasized.

Pattern of cerebral malaria in children at the Lagos University Teaching Hospital

Cerebral malaria is one of the most lethal forms of malaria. Given that malaria is a constantly evolving disease, it is therefore necessary to document patterns of presentation even in the same centre over a period of time.

OBJECTIVE

To document the prevalence and pattern of cerebral malaria in children.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional descriptive study of children with cerebral malaria attending the emergency room of the Lagos University Teaching Hospital. Age, sex, month at which diagnosis was made, associated clinical features, condition at discharge and mortality were assessed.

RESULTS

Cerebral malaria was documented in 107/3309 (3.2%) children. There was an equal male:female ratio. Cerebral malaria occurred most frequently between July and September and in children between 2 and 2.9 years. A total of 79/107 (73.8) recovered fully at discharge, 9/107 (8.4%) recovered with some neurological sequelae while 19/107 (17.8%) died. Coma score on admission was significantly lower among those who died compared with those who survived (p = 0.001). Clinical signs observed in these children were seizures-88/107 (82.2%), pallor-75/107 (70.1%), jaundice-55/107 (51.4%) and hepato-splenomegaly-18 (16.8%). However, decerebrate posturing was the only clinical sign associated with a fatal outcome OR, 11.47 (p = 0.009).

CONCLUSION

This study shows that cerebral malaria still remains a problem of the under fives with unacceptably high mortality. The clinical significance of decerebrate posture as an indicator of mortality would require further evaluation.

Basic trauma life support: knowledge of medical students

BACKGROUND

The first hour of management (golden hour) of any trauma patient might be the determining factor if he/she will survive. The first contact most patients have in an emergency room is with a young medical graduate. The knowledge of basic trauma life support (BTLS) by all doctors therefore becomes important.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

This study set out to assess how much knowledge medical students had about BTLS in their final year compared with their knowledge at the beginning of clinical postings.

METHOD

A cross-sectional study of fourth and sixth (final) year medical students to evaluate their knowledge of BTLS using a test of 30 questions under examination conditions. One hundred and twenty-three fourth year students were given a test after a lecture on the care of injured patients. The same test was administered on 41 sixth year students without prior lecture on day of test, having had a similar lecture 2 years before. Data analysis was performed using the SPSS 11.0 for Windows statistical software and EPI INFO version 6.04.

RESULT

Mean scores were 25.8 +/- SD1.91 for the 4th year students and 21.0 +/- SD2.93 for the 6th year students. There was a statistically significant difference between scores of the 4th year and the 6th year (P < 0.000001).

CONCLUSION

Knowledge was imparted in the 4th year but was forgotten by the 6th year. It is essential that courses in BTLS be given periodically to all medical graduates and all personnel involved in care of the traumatised patient.

Clinical and management factors related to outcome in neonatal tetanus

Although tetanus is a well-recognised, well-described, preventable and eradicable infection, it continues to ravage the lives of children in developing countries, especially among neonates. A cross-sectional review of cases of neonatal tetanus seen in LUTH was carried out retrospectively. Thirty-nine (39) cases were studied, comprising 26 (63.4%) males and 15 (36.6%) females, giving a male: female ratio of 1.6:1. Case fatality rate was 10.3%, thirty-five (89.7%) cases survived, of which nine (23.8%) survived with complications. Clinical factors that influence outcome were: a short interval between onset and presentation (p = 0.03), low tetanus score below 6.0 (p = 0.002), hyperpyrexia (p = 0.0001), heart failure (p = 0.035), cyanosis (p = 0.008) and crepitations (p = 0.003). Although several management factors were associated with mortality, these failed to meet statistical significance (p > 0.05). In this study, clinical factors, including presentation interval, were the principal determinants of outcome. The need for intensification and sustenance of preventive measures, early recognition and presentation, prompt treatment as well as improved care are emphasised. We recommend periodic audit of patient clinical data towards improving quality of care.

Evaluation of a maize-cowpea-palm oil diet for the dietary management of Nigerian children with acute, watery diarrhea

A randomized clinical trial was carried out to compare a locally available maize-cowpea-palm oil diet (group MCP) with a commercially produced lactose-free, soy protein isolate formula (group SF) for the dietary management of 69 Nigerian boys, 6-24 months of age, hospitalized for acute, watery diarrhea. Although the treatment groups were generally similar initially, the children in group SF had slightly lower mean weight-for-age z scores (p = 0.08), lower serum bicarbonate levels (p = 0.04) and greater stool outputs during the period of rehydration before the diets were initiated (p = 0.01). Rates of treatment failure in group MCP (5.7%) and group SF (8.8%) were similar (p = 0.67). There were no significant differences in the adjusted mean stool outputs by study group on days 1-5, but the children in group SF had slightly lower fecal weights on day 6 (p = 0.05). Children in group MCP had a substantially reduced duration of liquid stool excretion (estimated median duration 42 h versus 140 h; p < 0.001). On the other hand, children in group SF consumed considerably more of their diet, had greater net absorption of macronutrients and greater rates of weight gain than those in group MCP. We conclude that children can safely consume the MCP diet during acute, watery diarrhea without increasing their risk of treatment failure or augmenting stool output. However, the diet may not be adequate as a sole source of nutrients beyond the period of acute illness.

Ocular findings in children with homozygous sickle cell anemia in Nigeria

The ophthalmological findings in 91 Nigerian children with homozygous sickle cell anemia is reported. While the most constant sign was abnormality of the conjunctival vasculature, seen in 74(81%) of the patients, retinal lesions were found in a total of 53(58%) patients. Only tortuosity of major vessels was seen in some patients but several others had more than one type of retinal lesion.

Family study in sickle cell disease in Nigeria

A pilot survey has been made of Nigerian families at risk of producing SS haemoglobin homozygotes. Genotypes of parents and off-spring were investigated in twenty-five families. There is a suggestion that more SS children are produced where the first born suffers from haemoglobin SS disease. Mortality among offspring was higher in the study population than in the general population.