Downstaging hepatocellular carcinoma before liver transplantation: A multicenter analysis of the "all-comers" protocol in the Multicenter Evaluation of Reduction in Tumor Size before Liver Transplantation (MERITS-LT) consortium

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma meeting united network for organ sharing (UNOS)-downstaging (DS) criteria have excellent liver transplantation (LT) outcomes after DS. However, outcomes for "all-comers" (AC) patients with tumors initially exceeding UNOS-DS are poorly understood. Patients meeting AC (n = 82) or UNOS-DS (n = 229) at 7 LT centers in 4 UNOS regions were prospectively followed from 2015-2020. AC patients had a lower probability of successful DS (67% vs 83% within 12 months; P < .001). The 3-year survival was 69% for UNOS-DS vs 58% for AC (P = .05) and reduced to 30% in patients with Child-Pugh B/C cirrhosis or alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥ 500. Five-year LT probability was 42% for AC vs 74% in UNOS-DS (P = .10). Thirty-eight percent were understaged on explant, with the increasing sum of the largest tumor diameter plus the number of lesions before LT (odds ratio 1.3; P = .01) and AFP ≥ 20 (odds ratio 5.9; P = .005) associated with understaging. Post-LT 3-year survival was 91% for AC vs 81% for UNOS-DS (P = .67). In this first prospective multiregional study of AC patients from the multicenter evaluation of reduction in tumor size before liver transplantation (MERITS-LT) consortium, we observed a 65% probability of successful DS. Three-year survival in AC was nearly 60%, though AC with Child-Pugh B/C or AFP ≥ 500 had poor survival. Explant pathology and 3-year post-LT outcomes were similar between cohorts, suggesting that LT is a reasonable goal in selected AC patients.

AFP-L3 and DCP are superior to AFP in predicting waitlist dropout in HCC patients: Results of a prospective study

In patients with HCC awaiting liver transplantation (LT), there is a need to identify biomarkers that are superior to AFP in predicting prognosis. AFP-L3 and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) play a role in HCC detection, but their ability to predict waitlist dropout is unknown. In this prospective single-center study commenced in July 2017, 267 HCC patients had all 3 biomarkers obtained at LT listing. Among them, 96.2% received local-regional therapy, and 18.8% had an initial tumor stage beyond Milan criteria requiring tumor downstaging. At listing, median AFP was 7.0 ng/mL (IQR 3.4-21.5), median AFP-L3 was 7.1% (IQR 0.5-12.5), and median DCP was 1.0 ng/mL (IQR 0.2-3.8). After a median follow-up of 19.3 months, 63 (23.6%) experienced waitlist dropout, while 145 (54.3%) received LT, and 59 (22.1%) were still awaiting LT. Using Cox proportional hazards analysis, AFP-L3≥35% and DCP≥7.5 ng/mL were associated with increased waitlist dropout, whereas AFP at all tested cutoffs, including ≥20,≥ 100, and≥250 ng/mL was not. In a multivariable model, AFP-L3≥35% (HR 2.25, p =0.04) and DCP≥7.5 ng/mL (HR 2.20, p =0.02) remained associated with waitlist dropout as did time from HCC diagnosis to listing ≥ 1 year and increasing MELD-Na score. Kaplan-Meier probability of waitlist dropout within 2 years was 21.8% in those with AFP-L3<35% and DCP<7.5 ng/mL, 59.9% with either AFP-L3 or DCP elevated, and 100% for those with both elevated ( p <0.001). In this prospective study, listing AFP-L3% and DCP were superior to AFP in predicting waitlist dropout with the combination of AFP-L3≥35% and DCP≥7.5 ng/mL associated with a 100% risk of waitlist dropout, thus clearly adding prognostic value to AFP alone.

National Experience on Waitlist Outcomes for Down-Staging of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: High Dropout Rate in All-Comers

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) grants priority listing for liver transplant for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after successful down-staging to Milan criteria. We evaluated the national experience on down-staging by comparing 2 down-staging groups: tumor burden meeting UNOS down-staging (UNOS-DS) inclusion criteria, and all-comers (AC)-DS with initial tumor burden beyond UNOS-DS criteria vs patients always within Milan criteria.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of the UNOS database of 23,398 patients listed for liver transplant who had submitted a hepatocellular carcinoma Model for End-Stage Liver Disease exception application from 2010 to 2019, classified as always within Milan (n = 20,579), UNOS-DS (n = 2151), and AC-DS (n = 668).

RESULTS

The 2-year cumulative probabilities of dropout were 19% for Milan, 25% for UNOS-DS (P < .001), and 30% for AC-DS (P < .001). In multivariate analysis of the down-staging groups, factors predicting dropout included Model for End-Stage Liver Disease at listing (hazard ratio [HR], 1.06; P < .001) and initial total tumor diameter (HR, 1.04; P = .002). Compared with α-fetoprotein (AFP) level ≤20 ng/mL, AFP levels of 21 to 100, 101 to 1000, and greater than 1000 ng/mL were associated with a higher risk of dropout (HRs, 1.63, 2.06, and 4.58, respectively; P < .001). A subset of all-comers with AFP levels greater than 100 ng/mL had a 2-year probability of dropout of 52% vs 26% for all others beyond Milan criteria (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

All-comers had a significantly higher risk for waitlist dropout compared with the UNOS-DS and Milan groups after initial successful down-staging to Milan criteria. In particular, the subgroup of AC-DS with an AFP level greater than 100 ng/mL had a greater than 50% probability of dropout in the next 2 years. These observations suggest a high likelihood of failure when expanding the indications for down-staging.

National experience with living donor liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

Living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) is an attractive option to decrease waitlist dropout, particularly for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who face lengthening waiting times. Using the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) national database, trends in LDLT utilization for patients with HCC were evaluated, and post-LT outcomes for LDLT versus deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT) were compared. From 1998 to 2018, LT was performed in 20,161 patients with HCC including 726 (3.6%) who received LDLT. The highest LDLT utilization was prior to the 2002 HCC Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) exception policy (17.5%) and dropped thereafter (3.1%) with a slight increase following the 6-month wait policy in 2015 (3.8%). LDLT was more common in patients from long-wait UNOS regions with blood type O, in those with larger total tumor diameter (2.3 vs. 2.1 cm, p = 0.02), and higher alpha-fetoprotein at LT (11.5 vs. 9.0 ng/ml, p = 0.04). The 5-year post-LT survival (LDLT 77% vs. DDLT 75%), graft survival (72% vs. 72%), and HCC recurrence (11% vs. 13%) were similar between groups (all p > 0.20). In conclusion, LDLT utilization for HCC has remained low since 2002 with only a slight increase after the 6-month wait policy introduction in 2015. Given the excellent post-LT survival, LDLT appears to be an underutilized but valuable option for patients with HCC, especially those at high risk for waitlist dropout.

[Identification of Chinese herbs in the Qing Royals--Fu Shen and Fu Shen Mu]

The use of Fu Shen and Fu Shen Mu as medicines has had a long history. Today Fu Shen is still taken as bulk medicinal materials, whereas Fu Shen Mu had disappeared in the medical market. Fu Shen, Yun Fu Shen, Bai Fu Shen, and Bao Mu Fu Shen were used in clinical application in the Qing Royals. Bai Fu Shen and Fu Shen Mu are still kept as speciment in the Palace Museum today. It was found that Bai Fu Shen in the Qing Royals was the same as Fu Shen after peeling and pine roots recorded in the herbal literatures of the Ming and Qing dynasties, with their character tests and historical analysis. It can be inferred that Fu Shen, Yun Fu Shen and Bai Fu Shen recorded in the Qing Royals were actually Fu Shen, with pine roots in sclerotia and after peeling and pine roots removed in processing. Bao Mu Fu Shen and Bao Fu Shen should refer to Fu Shen with pine roots. Fu Shen Mu should mean Fu Shen without white sclerotia and peel during processing. Fu Shen, currently used clinically, is Bao Mu Fu Shen in the Qing Dynasty. Fu Shen distinguishes greatly from Fu Shen Mu in their effects. Such identification and analysis of herbs provides a way of thinking for further hurb studies of the Qing Dynasty.

The Impact of Median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease at Transplant Minus 3 National Policy on Waitlist Outcomes in Patients With and Without Hepatocellular Carcinoma

As a result of ongoing regional disparities, the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) implemented policy in May 2019 limiting exception points for waitlisted patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease at transplant in the area surrounding a transplant center minus 3 points (MMAT-3). The impact of this policy change remains unknown. We included adult patients with HCC (n = 4567) and without HCC (n = 19,773) in the UNOS database added to the waiting list before this policy change (May 7, 2017-May 18, 2019) and after (May 19, 2019-March 7, 2020). Cumulative incidence analysis estimated the probability of dropout within 1 year of listing decreased from 12.9% before the policy to 11.1% after the policy in candidates without HCC and from 14% to 10.7% in candidates with HCC. Incidence rates of liver transplantation (LT) and waitlist dropout varied significantly before the policy in patients with HCC and without HCC but nearly equalized in the postpolicy era. These effects were observed in both shorter and longer wait regions. With policy change being modeled as a time-dependent covariate, competing risk regression analyses estimated a decreased risk of dropout after policy change in the non-HCC group (cause-specific hazard ratio, 0.91; P = 0.02) after adjusting for demographic variables. These results suggest that the MMAT-3 policy has successfully reduced disparities in access to LT including across UNOS wait regions, although certain patients with HCC are now disadvantaged.

Downstaging Outcomes for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Results From the Multicenter Evaluation of Reduction in Tumor Size before Liver Transplantation (MERITS-LT) Consortium

BACKGROUND & AIMS

United Network of Organ Sharing (UNOS) has adopted uniform criteria for downstaging (UNOS-DS) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) before liver transplantation (LT), but the downstaging success rate and intention-to-treat outcomes across broad geographic regions are unknown.

METHODS

In this first multiregional study (7 centers, 4 UNOS regions), 209 consecutive patients with HCC undergoing downstaging based on UNOS-DS criteria were prospectively evaluated from 2016 to 2019.

RESULTS

Probability of successful downstaging to Milan criteria and dropout at 2 years from the initial downstaging procedure was 87.7% and 37.3%, respectively. Pretreatment with lectin-reactive α-fetoprotein ≥10% (hazard ratio, 3.7; P = .02) was associated with increased dropout risk. When chemoembolization (n = 132) and yttrium-90 radioembolization (n = 62) were compared as the initial downstaging treatment, there were no differences in Modified Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumors response, probability of or time to successful downstaging, waiting list dropout, or LT. Probability of LT at 3 years was 46.6% after a median of 17.2 months. In the explant, 17.5% had vascular invasion, and 42.8% exceeded Milan criteria (understaging). The only factor associated with understaging was the sum of the number of lesions plus largest tumor diameter on the last pre-LT imaging, and the odds of understaging increased by 35% per 1-unit increase in this sum. Post-LT survival at 2 years was 95%, and HCC recurrence occurred in 7.9%.

CONCLUSION

In this first prospective multiregional study based on UNOS-DS criteria, we observed a successful downstaging rate of >80% and similar efficacy of chemoembolization and yttrium-90 radioembolization as the initial downstaging treatment. A high rate of tumor understaging was observed despite excellent 2-year post-LT survival of 95%. Additional LRT to reduce viable tumor burden may reduce tumor understaging.

The Key Role of Staging Definitions for Assessment of Downstaging for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

The success of liver transplant (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is dependent on accurate tumor staging using validated imaging criteria, and adherence to acceptable criteria based on tumor size and number. Other factors including α-fetoprotein (AFP) and response to local regional therapy (LRT) have now played a larger role in candidate selection. Tumor downstaging is defined as reduction in the size of viable tumors using LRT to meet acceptable criteria for LT, and serves as a selection tool for a subgroup of HCC with more favorable biology. The application of tumor downstaging requires a structured approach involving three key components in tumor staging-initial tumor stage and eligibility criteria, tumor viability assessment following LRT, and target tumor stage prior to LT-and incorporation of AFP into staging and treatment response assessments. In this review, we provide in-depth discussions of the key role of these staging definitions in ensuring successful outcome.

A novel waitlist dropout score for hepatocellular carcinoma - identifying a threshold that predicts worse post-transplant survival

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It has been suggested that patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at high risk of wait-list dropout would have done poorly after liver transplantation (LT) because of tumour aggressiveness. To test this hypothesis, we analysed risk of wait-list dropout among patients with HCC in long-wait regions (LWRs) to create a dropout risk score, and applied this score in short (SWRs) and mid-wait regions (MWRs) to evaluate post-LT outcomes. We sought to identify a threshold in dropout risk that predicts worse post-LT outcome.

METHODS

Using the United Network for Organ Sharing database, including all patients with T2 HCC receiving priority listing from 2010 to 2014, a dropout risk score was created from a developmental cohort of 2,092 patients in LWRs, and tested in a validation cohort of 1,735 patients in SWRs and 2,894 patients in MWRs.

RESULTS

On multivariable analysis, 1 tumour (3.1-5 cm) or 2-3 tumours, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) >20 ng/ml, and increasing Child-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease-sodium scores significantly predicted wait-list dropout. A dropout risk score using these 4 variables (C-statistic 0.74) was able to stratify 1-year cumulative incidence of dropout from 7.1% with a score ≤7 to 39.5% with a score >23. Patients with a dropout risk score >30 had 5-year post-LT survival of 60.1% vs. 71.8% for those with a score ≤30 (p = 0.004). There were no significant differences in post-LT survival below this threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided evidence that patients with HCC with the highest dropout risk have aggressive tumour biology that would also result in poor post-LT outcomes when transplanted quickly. Below this threshold risk score of ≤30, priority status for organ allocation could be stratified based on the predicted risks of wait-list dropout without significant differences in post-LT survival.

LAY SUMMARY

Prioritising patients with hepatocellular carcinoma for liver transplant based on risk of wait-list dropout has been considered but may lead to inferior post-transplant survival. In this study of nearly 7,000 patients, we created a threshold dropout risk score based on tumour and liver-related factors beyond which patients with hepatocellular carcinoma will likely have poor post-liver transplant outcomes (60% at 5 years). For patients below this risk score threshold, priority status could be stratified based on the predicted risk of wait-list dropout without compromising post-transplant survival.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Demonstrates Heterogeneous Growth Patterns in a Multicenter Cohort of Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

There are limited data on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) growth patterns, particularly in Western cohorts, despite implications for surveillance, prognosis, and treatment. Our study's aim was to quantify tumor doubling time (TDT) and identify correlates associated with indolent and rapid growth.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We performed a retrospective multicenter cohort study of patients with cirrhosis diagnosed with HCC from 2008 to 2017 at six US and European health systems with two or more contrast-enhanced imaging studies performed ≥ 30 days apart prior to HCC treatment. Radiologists independently measured tumors in three dimensions to calculate TDT and specific growth rate (SGR). We used multivariable ordinal logistic regression to identify factors associated with indolent (TDT > 365 days) and rapid (TDT < 90 days) tumor growth. In the primary cohort (n = 242 patients from four centers), median TDT was 229 days (interquartile range [IQR], 89-627) and median SGR was 0.3% per day (IQR, 0.1%-0.8%). Over one-third (38%) of HCCs had indolent growth, 36.8% intermediate growth, and 25.2% rapid growth. In multivariable analysis, indolent growth was associated with larger tumor diameter (odds ratio [OR], 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.30) and alpha-fetoprotein < 20 ng/mL (OR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.12-3.21). Indolent growth was more common in nonviral than viral cirrhosis (50.9% versus 32.1%), particularly in patients with T1 HCC (OR, 3.41; 95% CI, 1.08-10.80). Median TDT (169 days; IQR 74-408 days) and SGR (0.4% per day) were similar in an independent cohort (n = 176 patients from two centers).

CONCLUSIONS

In a large Western cohort of patients with HCC, we found heterogeneous tumor growth patterns, with one-fourth exhibiting rapid growth and over one-third having indolent growth. Better understanding different tumor growth patterns may facilitate a precision approach to prognostication and treatment.

Donation After Circulatory Death Is Associated With Similar Posttransplant Survival in All but the Highest-Risk Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

Liver transplantation (LT) recipients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) receive a higher proportion of livers from donation after circulatory death (DCD) donors compared with non-HCC etiologies. Nevertheless, data on outcomes in patients with HCC receiving DCD grafts are limited. We evaluated the influence of DCD livers on post-LT outcome among HCC patients. We identified 7563 patients in the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database who underwent LT with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score exceptions from 2012 to 2016, including 567 (7.5%) who received a DCD donor organ and 6996 (92.5%) who received a donation after brain death (DBD) donor organ. Kaplan-Meier probabilities of post-LT HCC recurrence at 3 years were 7.6% for DCD and 6.4% for DBD recipients (P = 0.67) and post-LT survival at 3 years was 81.1% versus 85.5%, respectively (P = 0.008). On multivariate analysis, DCD donor (hazard ratio, 1.38; P = 0.005) was an independent predictor of post-LT mortality. However, a survival difference after LT was only observed in subgroups at higher risk for HCC recurrence including Risk Estimation of Tumor Recurrence After Transplant (RETREAT) score ≥4 (DCD 57.0% versus DBD 72.6%; P = 0.02), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥100 (60.1% versus 76.9%; P = 0.049), and multiple viable tumors on last imaging before LT (69.9% versus 83.1%; P = 0.002). In this analysis of HCC patients receiving DCD versus DBD livers in the UNOS database, we found that patients with a low-to-moderate risk of HCC recurrence (80%-90% of the DCD cohort) had equivalent survival regardless of donor type. It appears that DCD donation can best be used to increase the donor pool for HCC patients with decompensated cirrhosis or partial response/stable disease after locoregional therapy with AFP at LT <100 ng/mL.

Unfair Advantages for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Listed for Liver Transplant in Short-Wait Regions Following 2015 Hepatocellular Carcinoma Policy Change

For patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) listed for liver transplantation (LT), United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) enacted policy changes in 2015 to improve equity between HCC and non-HCC patients. We evaluated the impact of these changes on regional disparities in wait-list dropout and LT. We included patients in the UNOS database listed with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease HCC exceptions in long-wait regions (LWRs), mid-wait regions (MWRs), and short-wait regions (SWRs) before these policy changes (era 1, January 1 to December 31, 2013) and after (era 2, October 7, 2015, to October 7, 2016). Cumulative incidence of wait-list dropout and LT were evaluated using competing risk regression. Median time to LT increased by 3.6 months (3.1 to 6.7 months) in SWRs and 1.3 months (6.9 to 8.2 months) in MWRs (P < 0.001), with a slight decrease in LWRs (13.4 to 12.9 months; P = 0.02). The 2-year cumulative incidence of dropout increased from 9.7% to 14.8% in SWRs (P = 0.03) and from 18.9% to 22.6% in MWRs (P = 0.18) but decreased in LWRs from 26.7% to 24.8% (P = 0.31). Factors predicting wait-list dropout included listing in era 2 (hazard ratio [HR], 1.17), in LWRs (HR, 2.56), and in MWRs (HR, 1.91). Regional differences in wait-list outcomes decreased with policy changes, but HCC patients in SWRs remain advantaged. Recent policy change may narrow these disparities.

National Experience on Down-Staging of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Before Liver Transplant: Influence of Tumor Burden, Alpha-Fetoprotein, and Wait Time

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) recently implemented a national policy granting priority listing for liver transplantation (LT) in patients who achieved down-staging of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to Milan criteria. We aimed to evaluate the national experience on down-staging by comparing two down-staging groups with (1) tumor burden meeting UNOS down-staging (UNOS-DS) inclusion criteria and (2) "all-comers" (AC-DS) with initial tumor burden beyond UNOS-DS criteria versus patients always within Milan.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This is a retrospective analysis of the UNOS database of 3,819 patients who underwent LT from 2012 to 2015, classified as always within Milan (n = 3,276), UNOS-DS (n = 422), and AC-DS (n = 121). Median time to LT was 12.8 months in long wait regions, 6.5 months in mid wait regions (MWR), and 2.6 months in short wait regions (SWR). On explant, vascular invasion was found in 23.7% of AC-DS versus 16.9% of UNOS-DS and 14.4% of Milan (P = 0.002). Kaplan-Meier 3-year post-LT survival was 83.2% for Milan, 79.1% for UNOS-DS (P = 0.17 vs. Milan), and 71.4% for AC-DS (P = 0.04 vs. Milan). Within down-staging groups, risk of post-LT death in multivariable analysis was increased in SWR or MWR (hazard ratio [HR], 3.1; P = 0.005) and with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥ 100 ng/mL at LT (HR, 2.4; P = 0.009). The 3-year HCC recurrence probability was 6.9% for Milan, 12.8% for UNOS-DS, and 16.7% for AC-DS (P < 0.001). In down-staging groups, AFP ≥ 100 (HR, 2.6; P = 0.02) was the only independent predictor of HCC recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results validated UNOS-DS criteria based on comparable 3-year survival between UNOS-DS and Milan groups. Additional refinements based on AFP and wait time may further improve post-LT outcomes in down-staging groups, especially given that reported 3-year recurrence was higher than in those always within Milan criteria.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: Management after the transplant

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an increasingly common indication for liver transplantation (LT) in the United States and in many parts of the world. In the last decade, significant work has been done to better understand how to risk stratify LT candidates for recurrence of HCC following transplant using a combination of biomarker and imaging findings. However, despite the high frequency of HCC in the LT population, guidance regarding posttransplant management is lacking. In particular, there is no current evidence to support specific post-LT surveillance strategies, leading to significant heterogeneity in practices. In addition, there are no current recommendations regarding recurrence prevention, including immunosuppression regimen or secondary prevention with adjuvant chemotherapy. Finally, guidance on treatment of disease recurrence is also lacking and there is significant controversy about the use of immunotherapy in transplant recipients due to the risk of rejection. Thus, outcomes for patients with recurrence are poor. This paper therefore provides a comprehensive review of the current literature on post-LT management of patients with HCC and identifies gaps in our current knowledge that are in urgent need of further investigation.

Predictors of low risk for dropout from the liver transplant waiting list for hepatocellular carcinoma in long wait time regions: Implications for organ allocation

All patients with hepatocellular carcinoma meeting United Network for Organ Sharing T2 criteria currently receive the same listing priority for liver transplant (LT). A previous study from our center identified a subgroup with a very low risk of waitlist dropout who may not derive immediate LT benefit. To evaluate this issue at a national level, we analyzed within the United Network for Organ Sharing database 2052 patients with T2 hepatocellular carcinoma receiving priority listing from 2011 to 2014 in long wait time regions 1, 5, and 9. Probabilities of waitlist dropout were 18.3% at 1 year and 27% at 2 years. In multivariate analysis, factors associated with a lower risk of waitlist dropout included Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Na < 15, Child's class A, single 2- to 3-cm lesion, and α-fetoprotein ≤20 ng/mL. The subgroup of 245 (11.9%) patients meeting these 4 criteria at LT listing had a 1-year probability of dropout of 5.5% vs 20% for all others (P < .001). On explant, the low dropout risk group was more likely to have complete tumor necrosis (35.5% vs 24.9%, P = .01) and less likely to exceed Milan criteria (9.9% vs 17.7%, P = .03). We identified a subgroup with a low risk of waitlist dropout who should not receive the same LT listing priority.

Prospective Phase II trial of drug-eluting bead chemoembolization for liver transplant candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma and marginal hepatic reserve

Purpose: To determine whether chemoembolization using drug-eluting beads (DEB-TACE) is safe and effective for liver transplantation candidates with liver-limited hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) without vascular invasion and baseline hepatic dysfunction.

Materials and methods: Seventeen adult liver transplantation candidates (median age 66 years, range 58–73 years; 13 men) with HCC were treated with DEB-TACE as a part of Stage 1 of a prospective single-institution Phase II trial. All patients had marginal hepatic reserve based on at least one of the following criteria: ascites (n=14), bilirubin between 3 and 6 mg/dL (n=5), AST 5–10 times upper normal limit (n=1), INR between 1.6 and 2.5 (n=4), portal vein thrombosis (n=2), and/or portosystemic shunt (n=2). Primary study objectives were safety and best observed radiographic response.

Results: Thirty-seven DEB-TACE procedures were performed. Objective response rate and disease control rate were 63% and 88%, respectively. HCC progression was observed in 12 patients. Median time to progression was 5.6 months (range 0.9–13.6 months). Within 1 month following DEB-TACE, 13 patients (76%) developed grade 3 or 4 AE attributable to the procedure. Four patients (all within Milan Criteria) were transplanted (2.7–6.9 months after DEB-TACE), and 12 patients died (1.8–32 months after DEB-TACE). All deaths were due to liver failure that was either unrelated to HCC (n=5), in the setting of metastatic HCC (n=5), or in the setting of locally advanced HCC (n=2). Mortality rate at 1 month was 0%.

Conclusions: DEB-TACE achieves tumor responses but carries a high risk of hepatotoxicity for liver transplant candidates with HCC and marginal hepatic reserve.

Multicenter validation of a score to predict prognosis after the development of HCC recurrence following liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

HCC recurrence after LT impacts negatively on survival. A recent study detected late recurrence (≥12 months), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) <100 ng/mL at recurrence and being amenable for curative-intent treatments as good prognostic factors. With these variables a prognostic score was proposed. The objective of this study was to validate the prognostic score for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence following liver transplantation (LT).

METHODS

Data from the University of California, San Francisco, the University Hospital of Birmingham and Instituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Milan including patients with HCC recurrence after LT were analyzed. The previous reported score was applied to this cohort.

RESULTS

From June 2002-December 2014, 1328 patients had a confirmed HCC in their explanted liver. The study group comprised 130 patients (9.8%) diagnosed with HCC recurrence after LT. Overall median survival after HCC recurrence was 12.4 (95% CI 10.2-16.3) months. Application of the previously reported score showed a significantly superior survival for the good prognosis group compared to moderate and poor prognosis groups (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

The score continues to identify a group of patients who would benefit from aggressive treatment and experience significant improved survival following recurrent HCC after LT.

Alpha-Fetoprotein Decrease from > 1,000 to < 500 ng/mL in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Leads to Improved Posttransplant Outcomes

High alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) > 1,000 ng/mL is associated with poor outcomes after liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A new national policy has been implemented for AFP > 1,000 ng/mL requiring a decrease to < 500 ng/mL before LT, but there is a paucity of data on the optimal AFP threshold before LT. We aimed to evaluate the effects of a reduction in AFP from > 1,000 ng/mL to different AFP thresholds before LT on survival and HCC recurrence after LT using the United Network for Organ Sharing database. We identified 407 patients who underwent transplant between January 2005 and September 2015 and who had AFP > 1,000 ng/mL at least once before LT. The last AFP measurement before LT was > 1,000 ng/mL in 72.0%, decreased from > 1,000 to 101-499 ng/mL in 9.6%, and decreased to ≤ 100 ng/mL in 14.3%. Local-regional therapy was not performed in 45.4% of patients with AFP > 1,000 ng/mL at LT versus 12.8% of those with AFP of 101-499 ng/mL and 10.3% of those with AFP ≤ 100 ng/mL at LT (P < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier 5-year post-LT survival for those with AFP > 1,000 ng/mL at LT was 48.8% versus 67.0% for those with a decrease in AFP to 101-499 ng/mL (P < 0.001) and 88.4% for those with AFP ≤ 100 ng/mL at LT (P < 0.001). HCC recurrence probability at 5 years was 35.0% for patients with AFP > 1,000 ng/mL versus 13.3% for patients with AFP of 101-499 ng/mL and 7.2% for patients with AFP ≤ 100 ng/mL at LT (P < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, a decrease in the AFP to 101-499 ng/mL was associated with a > 2-fold reduction in posttransplant mortality (P = 0.01) and a nearly 3-fold reduction in HCC recurrence (P = 0.02) compared with AFP > 1,000 ng/mL at LT. Conclusion: Our results demonstrated significantly improved post-LT outcomes when restricting LT to patients with a reduction in AFP from > 1,000 to < 500 ng/mL, validating the recently implemented national policy.

The mRECIST Classification Provides Insight into Tumor Biology for Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Awaiting Liver Transplantation

With recent changes in United Network for Organ Sharing policy, patients in the United States with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are likely to spend more time on the liver transplantation (LT) waiting list. The increasing wait time will allow for an opportunity to assess tumor biology prior to LT. Modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST) paradigm provides such a framework for this assessment, and yet little is understood of its utility as it would apply for patients listed for LT in the United States. Through a collaboration between the University of California, San Francisco, and the Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, Florida, the experience of 772 patients listed for LT were retrospectively reviewed to study the impact of immediate mRECIST classification following locoregional therapy (LRT) on pre- and post-LT outcomes. Patients who had progression of disease (PD; n = 72), failed to respond to LRT (n = 89) at any time point, or did not achieve radiologic complete response (CR; n = 224) were all at significant risk for wait-list dropout (odds ratio [OR] = 12.11, 4.81, and 2.48; respectively). CR identified a cohort of patients who were at a reduced risk for wait-list dropout. However, 24.9% eventually required further intervention while waiting for transplant, and as many as 82.4% were found to have residual HCC on explant pathology. Failure to respond to LRT was associated with increased risk for recurrence (OR = 3.00) more so than PD (OR = 1.36), suggesting that despite PD, patients who eventually can respond to LRT may represent favorable candidates for LT. In conclusion, for patients awaiting LT, the mRECIST assessment provides critical guidance for patient management. Although PD portends a poor prognosis, our findings suggest that further aggressive LRT should be pursued because a response to LRT may yield acceptable results for patients awaiting LT as well as after LT.

Distinguishing Tumor From Bland Portal Vein Thrombus in Liver Transplant Candidates With Hepatocellular Carcinoma: the A-VENA Criteria

Differentiating tumor versus bland portal vein thrombosis (PVT) is essential in determining liver transplantation (LT) candidacy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to evaluate radiographic and clinical features that could noninvasively distinguish tumor PVT from bland PVT in HCC patients. Of 467 patients with HCC listed for LT from 2004 to 2011, 59 (12.6%) had PVT and 12 of 59 (20.3%) were deemed malignant. When comparing tumor versus bland PVT, thrombus enhancement was seen in 100% versus 8.5%; venous expansion was seen in 91.7% versus 10.6%; neovascularity was seen in 58.3% versus 2.1%; and being adjacent to HCC or prior treatment site was seen in 100% versus 21.3% (all P < 0.001). Combining these 4 imaging characteristics with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) >1000 ng/dL, the presence of ≥3 criteria best characterized tumor PVT with 100% sensitivity, 93.6% specificity, 80% positive predictive value, and 100% negative predictive value. No LT recipients with presumed bland PVT had macrovascular invasion on explant. There were no differences in post-LT survival or HCC recurrence with bland PVT versus no PVT. In conclusion, we proposed noninvasive criteria that could accurately differentiate tumor PVT from bland PVT called A-VENA, which is based on the presence of ≥3 of the following: AFP >1000 ng/dL; venous expansion; thrombus enhancement; neovascularity; and adjacent to HCC. Use of the A-VENA criteria can assist in standardizing the evaluation of PVT in patients with HCC being considered for LT.

Increasing Liver Transplantation Wait-List Dropout for Hepatocellular Carcinoma With Widening Geographical Disparities: Implications for Organ Allocation

Given the increasing incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and regional variation in liver transplantation (LT) rates for HCC, we investigated temporal and geographic disparities in LT and wait-list dropout. LT candidates receiving Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) exception from 2005 to 2014 were identified from the United Network for Organ Sharing database (n = 14,320). Temporal differences were compared across 2 eras (2005-2009 and 2010-2014). Regional groups were defined based on median wait time as long-wait region (LWR; regions 1, 5, and 9), mid-wait region (MWR; regions 2, 4, 6, 7, and 8), and short-wait region (SWR; regions 3, 10, and 11). Fine and Gray competing risk regression estimated risk of wait-list dropout as hazard ratios (HRs). The cumulative probability of LT within 3 years was 70% in the LWR versus 81% in the MWR and 91% in the SWR (P < 0.001). From 2005-2009 to 2010-2014, median time to LT increased by 6.0 months (5.6 to 11.6 months) in the LWR compared with 3.8 months (2.6 to 6.4 months) in the MWR and 1.3 months (1.0 to 2.3 months) in the SWR. The cumulative probability of dropout within 3 years was 24% in the LWR versus 16% in the MWR and 8% in the SWR (P < 0.001). From 2005-2009 to 2010-2014, the LWR also had the greatest increase in probability of dropout. Risk of dropout was increased in the LWR (HR, 3.5; P < 0.001) and the MWR (HR, 2.2; P < 0.001) compared with the SWR, and year of MELD exception 2010-2014 (HR, 1.9; P < 0.001) compared with 2005-2009. From 2005-2009 to 2010-2014, intention-to-treat 3-year survival decreased from 69% to 63% in the LWR (P < 0.001), 72% to 69% in the MWR (P = 0.008), and remained at 74% in the SWR (P = 0.48). In conclusion, we observed a significant increase in wait-list dropout in HCC patients in recent years that disproportionately impacted LWR patients. Widening geographical disparities call for changes in allocation policy as well as enhanced efforts at increasing organ donation and utilization.

Predictors of Ultrasound Failure to Detect Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Current guidelines recommend ultrasound (US) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in cirrhosis. We assess predictors of decreased US sensitivity for detecting HCC. At a single center in the United States, all HCC patients evaluated for liver transplantation (LT) received an abdominal US. From 2007-2015, consecutive patients presenting for untreated lesions found on computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) within 3 months of US were compared with US findings. Multivariate logistic regression models compared US sensitivities by patient characteristics. Of 1007 patients completing LT evaluation, 47.5% had indeterminate or previously treated nodules and were excluded; 10.4% had imaging that was too far apart or nondiagnostic. Median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) of the cohort (n= 352) was 11 (interquartile range [IQR], 9-14), median body mass index (BMI) was 28 kg/m² (IQR, 25-32 kg/m² ), 39% had received locoregional therapy, and 10% had moderate/large ascites. Per-patient sensitivity of US compared with CT/MRI was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.86). Patients with BMI ≥ 30 kg/m² had a US sensitivity of 0.76 versus 0.87 for BMI < 30 kg/m² (P = 0.01). MELD and ascites did not affect sensitivity. US sensitivity was decreased in patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) versus other etiologies (0.59 versus 0.84; P = 0.02). Relative to CT/MRI, US is significantly less sensitive in patients with NASH or BMI ≥ 30 kg/m² . Further study is necessary to examine the added value of cross-sectional imaging for patients with NASH or obesity.

Direct-acting antivirals do not increase the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after local-regional therapy or liver transplant waitlist dropout

Whether direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) increase the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after tumor-directed therapy is controversial. We sought to determine the impact of DAA therapy on HCC recurrence after local-regional therapy (LRT) and waitlist dropout among liver transplant (LT) candidates with HCC. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 149 LT candidates with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HCC at a single center from 2014 through 2016. Cumulative incidence of HCC recurrence post-LRT and waitlist dropout was estimated by the DAA group. Factors associated with each outcome were evaluated using competing risks regression. A propensity score stabilized inverse probability weighting approach was used to account for differences in baseline characteristics between groups. The no DAA group (n = 87) had more severe cirrhosis and lower rates of complete radiologic tumor response after LRT than those treated with DAA (n = 62) but had similar alpha-fetoprotein and tumor burden at listing. Cumulative incidence of HCC recurrence within 1 year of complete response after LRT was 47.0% in the DAA group and 49.8% in the no DAA group (P = 0.93). In adjusted competing risk analysis using weighted propensity score modeling, risk of HCC recurrence was similar in the DAA group compared to those without DAA (hazard ratio [HR], 0.91; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58-1.42; P = 0.67). Patients treated with DAAs had lower risk of waitlist dropout due to tumor progression or death compared to the no DAA group in adjusted weighted analysis (HR, 0.30; 95% CI 0.13-0.69; P = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

In LT candidates with HCV and HCC with initial complete response to LRT, DAA use is not associated with increased risk of HCC recurrence but rather is associated with reduced risk of waitlist dropout due to tumor progression or death. (Hepatology 2018).

Excellent Outcomes of Liver Transplantation Following Down-Staging of Hepatocellular Carcinoma to Within Milan Criteria: A Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Single-center studies have reported excellent outcomes of patients who underwent liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after successful down-staging (reduction of tumor burden with local-regional therapy), but multi-center studies are lacking. We performed a multi-center study, applying a uniform down-staging protocol, to assess outcomes of liver transplantation and performed an intention to treat analysis. We analyzed factors associated with treatment failure, defined as dropout from the liver transplant waitlist due to tumor progression, liver-related death without transplant, or recurrence of HCC after transplant.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective multi-center study of 187 consecutive adults with HCC enrolled in the down-staging protocol at 3 liver transplant centers in California (Region 5), from 2002 through 2012. All patients underwent abdominal imaging 1 month after each local-regional treatment, and at a minimum of once every 3 months. The primary outcome was probability of treatment failure.

RESULTS

Liver transplantation was performed after successful down staging in 109 patients (58%). Tumor explant from only 1 patient had poorly differentiated grade and 7 (6.4%) had vascular invasion. Based on Kaplan-Meier analysis of data collected a median 4.3 years after liver transplantation, 95% of patients would survive 1 year and 80% of patients would survive 5 years; probabilities of recurrence-free survival were 95% and 87%, respectively. There were no center-specific differences in survival in the intention to treat analysis (P = .62), in survival after liver transplantation (P = .95), or in recurrence of HCC (P = .99). Patients were removed from the liver transplantation waitlist due to tumor progression in (n = 59; 32%) or liver-related death without liver transplantation (n = 9; 5%). Factors associated with treatment failure, based on multivariable analysis, were pre-treatment levels of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) >1000 ng/mL (hazard ratio, 3.3; P < .001) and Child Pugh class B or C (hazard ratio, 1.6; P < .001). The probability of treatment failure at 2 years from the first down-staging procedure was 100% for patients with levels of AFP >1000 and Child Pugh class B or C vs 29.4% for patients with neither risk factor (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

In a retrospective, multi-center study on HCC down staging under a uniform protocol, we found patients to have excellent outcomes following liver transplantation, with no center-specific effects. Our findings support application of the down-staging protocol on a broader scale. Patients with Child Pugh class B or C and AFP >1000 are unlikely to benefit from down staging.

Validation of the prognostic power of the RETREAT score for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence using the UNOS database

Researchers in a recent multicenter study developed and validated a novel prognostic index, Risk Estimation of Tumor Recurrence After Transplant (RETREAT), which incorporates α-fetoprotein (AFP) at liver transplantation (LT), microvascular invasion, and the sum of the largest viable tumor and number of tumors on explant. We now aim to evaluate RETREAT in the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who meet Milan criteria by imaging and underwent LT between 2012 and -2014. On explantation (n = 3276), 13% had microvascular invasion, 30% had no viable tumor, and 15% exceeded Milan criteria. Post-LT survival at 3 years decreased with increasing RETREAT score: 91% for a score of 0, 80% for a score of 3, and 58% for a score ≥5 (P < .001). Post-LT HCC recurrence probability within 3 years increased from 1.6% with RETREAT score of 0% to 29% for a score ≥5 (P < .001). Increasing RETREAT score was also associated with a shorter time to HCC recurrence. RETREAT was superior to Milan criteria (explant) in predicting HCC recurrence by the net reclassification index (P < .001). This study validates the prognostic power of RETREAT, which may help standardize post-LT surveillance, provide a framework for tumor staging and risk stratification, and select candidates for adjuvant therapies.

Misdiagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients receiving no local-regional therapy prior to liver transplant: An analysis of the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network explant pathology form

Patients with T1 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are not eligible for Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) exception for liver transplant (LT) in part due to a high rate of misdiagnosis (no HCC on explant). The likelihood of misdiagnosis for T2 HCC and factors associated with misdiagnosis are unknown. We analyzed the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database including 5664 adults who underwent LT from 2012 to 2015 with MELD exception for T2 HCC, and searched for no evidence of HCC in the explant pathology file. We focused on those (n = 324) receiving no local-regional therapy (LRT) to evaluate the probability of no HCC found in explant. Median waiting time was short at 1.7 months, and 35 (11%) had no HCC on explant. On multivariable logistic regression, factors associated with no HCC on explant were age <50 (OR: 17.3, P < .001), non-HCV (OR: 5.4, P = .001), and alpha-fetoprotein <10 (OR: 2.9, P = .04). Tumor size and number were not different between groups. The proportion of misdiagnosis did not change significantly after implementation of Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) for HCC diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

The rate of misdiagnosis was 11% among T2 HCC patients who underwent LT without receiving LRT prior to LT and did not change significantly after implementation of LI-RADS. More efforts are needed to eliminate unnecessary LT for patients without HCC.

Liver transplantation recipients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis have lower risk hepatocellular carcinoma

Liver transplantation (LT) is a well-established treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in carefully selected patients. Risk factors for tumors with poor prognostic features on explant have not been well described in a national cohort. We performed a retrospective cohort study of adult LT recipients with HCC transplanted from April 8, 2012 (when explant pathology in United Network for Organ Sharing [UNOS] became available) until September 30, 2014. We evaluated the association between listing diagnosis and other demographic factors with tumor features on explant using logistic regression. High-risk tumor features included the following: > 3 tumors, largest tumor > 5 cm, presence of vascular invasion, presence of metastases, and poor differentiation of tumor. In total, 3733 LT recipients with HCC who had complete explant data in UNOS were included. The median age was 60 years; 78% were male; and 68% were white. Of the primary non-HCC listing diagnoses, 2608 (70%) had hepatitis C virus (HCV); 271 (7%) had nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH); 246 (7%) had alcoholic cirrhosis; and 189 (5%) had hepatitis B virus. Also, 1140 (31%) had evidence of ≥ 1 high-risk explant feature(s). The presence of ≥ 1 high-risk explant feature(s) was associated with HCC recurrence after transplant (odds ratio [OR], 5.00; P < 0.001). Compared with HCV-associated HCC transplant recipients, individuals with NASH had lower likelihood of high-risk explant features (OR, 0.71; P = 0.02) after adjusting for covariables. Women were more likely to have high-risk explant features (OR, 1.23; P = 0.04). Diabetes mellitus (DM) was not associated with high-risk explant features. In conclusion, LT recipients with NASH-associated HCC had fewer high-risk tumor features on explant compared with HCV-associated HCC, despite having higher rates of DM and other potential risk factors for the development of HCC. Women had a higher likelihood of high-risk tumor features. Further study is warranted whether these differences are due to disease-specific or sex-specific influences on tumor biology or due to selection criteria for transplant. Liver Transplantation 23 1015-1022 2017 AASLD.

Validation of a Risk Estimation of Tumor Recurrence After Transplant (RETREAT) Score for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Liver Transplant

Importance

Several factors are associated with increased hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT), but no reliable risk score has been established to determine the individual risk for HCC recurrence.

Objective

We aimed to develop and validate a Risk Estimation of Tumor Recurrence After Transplant (RETREAT) score for patients with HCC meeting Milan criteria by imaging.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Predictors of recurrence were tested in a development cohort of 721 patients who underwent LT between 2002 and 2012 at 3 academic transplant centers (University of California-San Francisco; Mayo Clinic, Rochester; and Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville) to create the RETREAT score. This was subsequently validated in a cohort of 341 patients also meeting Milan criteria by imaging who underwent LT at the University of Toronto transplant center using the C concordance statistic and net reclassification index.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Characteristics associated with post-LT HCC recurrence.

Results

A total of 1061 patients participated in the study; 77.8% (825) were men, and the median (IQR) age was 58.2 (53.3-63.9) years in the development cohort and 56.4 (51.7-61.0) years in the validation cohort (P < .001). In the development cohort of 721 patients (542 men), median α-fetoprotein (AFP) level at the time of LT was 8.3 ng/mL; 9.4% had microvascular invasion (n = 68), and 22.1% were beyond Milan criteria on explant (n = 159) owing to understaging by pretransplantation imaging. Cumulative probabilities of HCC recurrence at 1 and 5 years were 5.7% and 12.8%, respectively. On multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression, 3 variables were independently associated with HCC recurrence: microvascular invasion, AFP at time of LT, and the sum of the largest viable tumor diameter and number of viable tumors on explant. The RETREAT score was created using these 3 variables, with scores ranging from 0 to 5 or higher that were highly predictive of HCC recurrence (C statistic, 0.77). RETREAT was able to stratify 5-year post-LT recurrence risk ranging from less than 3% with a score of 0 to greater than 75% with a score of 5 or higher. The validation cohort (n = 340; 283 men) had significantly higher microvascular invasion (23.8% [n = 81], P < .001), explant beyond Milan criteria (37.3% [n = 159], P < .001), and HCC recurrence at 5 years (17.9% [n = 159], P = .03). RETREAT showed good model discrimination (C statistic, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.77-0.86) and superior recurrence risk classification compared with explant Milan criteria (net reclassification index, 0.40; P = .001) in the validation cohort.

Conclusions and Relevance

We have developed and validated a simple and novel prognostic score that may improve post-LT HCC surveillance strategies and help identify patients who may benefit from future adjuvant therapies.

Liver transplantation for "very early" intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: International retrospective study supporting a prospective assessment

The presence of an intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) in a cirrhotic liver is a contraindication for liver transplantation in most centers worldwide. Recent investigations have shown that "very early" iCCA (single tumors ≤2 cm) may have acceptable results after liver transplantation. This study further evaluates this finding in a larger international multicenter cohort. The study group was composed of those patients who were transplanted for hepatocellular carcinoma or decompensated cirrhosis and found to have an iCCA at explant pathology. Patients were divided into those with "very early" iCCA and those with "advanced" disease (single tumor >2 cm or multifocal disease). Between January 2000 and December 2013, 81 patients were found to have an iCCA at explant; 33 had separate nodules of iCCA and hepatocellular carcinoma, and 48 had only iCCA (study group). Within the study group, 15/48 (31%) constituted the "very early" iCCA group and 33/48 (69%) the "advanced" group. There were no significant differences between groups in preoperative characteristics. At explant, the median size of the largest tumor was larger in the "advanced" group (3.1 [2.5-4.4] versus 1.6 [1.5-1.8]). After a median follow-up of 35 (13.5-76.4) months, the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year cumulative risks of recurrence were, respectively, 7%, 18%, and 18% in the very early iCCA group versus 30%, 47%, and 61% in the advanced iCCA group, P = 0.01. The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year actuarial survival rates were, respectively, 93%, 84%, and 65% in the very early iCCA group versus 79%, 50%, and 45% in the advanced iCCA group, P = 0.02.

CONCLUSION

Patients with cirrhosis and very early iCCA may become candidates for liver transplantation; a prospective multicenter clinical trial is needed to further confirm these results. (Hepatology 2016;64:1178-1188).

Reassessing the boundaries of liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: Where do we stand with tumor down-staging?

Down-staging of hepatocellular carcinoma prior to liver transplantation (LT) has generated a lot of interest in recent years and has been identified in two recent national conferences on hepatocellular carcinoma as one of the priorities for research. Down-staging is defined as reduction in the tumor burden using local regional therapy specifically to meet acceptable criteria for LT. The rationale behind down-staging of tumors initially exceeding conventional criteria for LT is to select a subgroup of tumors with favorable biology and prognosis for LT as assessed by their response to local regional therapy. The expectation is to achieve comparable posttransplant survival between patients who achieve successful tumor down-staging before LT and those whose tumors meet LT criteria at the outset without needing down-staging. The application of tumor down-staging requires a highly structured approach using a treatment protocol that includes five essential components: eligibility criteria, down-staging endpoints, selection of the type of local regional therapy, minimal observation period from successful tumor down-staging to LT, and criteria for treatment failure and exclusion from LT. This review article summarizes published data on down-staging and addresses key questions related to each of the components of the down-staging protocol as well as treatment efficacy.

CONCLUSION

Based on a review of published data and recommendations from recent national and international conferences on hepatocellular carcinoma and LT, a standardized down-staging protocol is proposed to further evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of applying tumor down-staging on a broader scale.

Intention to treat outcome of T1 hepatocellular carcinoma with the "wait and not ablate" approach until meeting T2 criteria for liver transplant listing

Patients with T1 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC; 1 lesion < 2 cm) are currently not eligible for priority listing for liver transplantation (LT). A common practice is to wait without locoregional therapy (LRT) until tumor growth occurs from T1 to T2 (1 lesion 2-5 cm or 2-3 lesions ≤ 3 cm) to be eligible for listing with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease exception. We aimed to evaluate the intention to treat outcome of the "wait and not ablate" approach for nonresection candidates with T1 HCC until tumor growth to T2. The study included 114 patients with T1 HCC 1.0-1.9 cm followed by serial imaging every 3 months. Two investigators performed independent imaging reviews to confirm the diagnosis. Median increase in total tumor diameter was 0.14 cm/month. Probabilities of progression from T1 to directly beyond T2 without LT listing were 4.4% at 6 months and 9.0% at both 12 and 24 months. The 1- and 3-year survival was 94.5% and 75.5%. In multivariate analysis, predictors of rapid tumor progression, defined as a > 1 cm increase in total tumor diameter over 3 months, included alcoholic liver disease (odds ratio [OR], 6.52; P = 0.02) and Hispanic race (OR, 3.86; P = 0.047), whereas hepatitis B appeared to be protective (OR, 0.09; P = 0.04). By competing risks regression, predictors of exclusion from LT (with or without listing for LT under T2) were alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥ 500 ng/mL (HR, 12.69; 95% confidence interval, 2.8-57.0; P = 0.001) and rapid tumor progression (HR, 5.68; P < 0.001). In conclusion, the "wait and not ablate" approach until tumor growth from T1 to T2 before LT listing is associated with a <10% risk of tumor progression to directly beyond T2 criteria. However, patients with AFP ≥ 500 ng/mL and rapid tumor progression are at high risk for wait-list dropout and should receive early LRT.

Downstaging of hepatocellular cancer before liver transplant: long-term outcome compared to tumors within Milan criteria

We report on the long-term intention-to-treat (ITT) outcome of 118 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing downstaging to within Milan/United Network for Organ Sharing T2 criteria before liver transplantation (LT) since 2002 and compare the results with 488 patients listed for LT with HCC meeting T2 criteria at listing in the same period. The downstaging subgroups include 1 lesion >5 and ≤8 cm (n = 43), 2 or 3 lesions at least one >3 and ≤5 cm with total tumor diameter ≤8 cm (n = 61), or 4-5 lesions each ≤3 cm with total tumor diameter ≤8 cm (n = 14). In the downstaging group, 64 patients (54.2%) had received LT and 5 (7.5%) developed HCC recurrence. Two of the five patients with HCC recurrence had 4-5 tumors at presentation. The 1- and 2-year cumulative probabilities for dropout (competing risk) were 24.1% and 34.2% in the downstaging group versus 20.3% and 25.6% in the T2 group (P = 0.04). Kaplan-Meier's 5-year post-transplant survival and recurrence-free probabilities were 77.8% and 90.8%, respectively, in the downstaging group versus 81% and 88%, respectively, in the T2 group (P = 0.69 and P = 0.66, respectively). The 5-year ITT survival was 56.1% in the downstaging group versus 63.3% in the T2 group (P = 0.29). Factors predicting dropout in the downstaging group included pretreatment alpha-fetoprotein ≥1,000 ng/mL (multivariate hazard ratio [HR]: 2.42; P = 0.02) and Child's B versus Child's A cirrhosis (multivariate HR: 2.19; P = 0.04).

CONCLUSION

Successful downstaging of HCC to within T2 criteria was associated with a low rate of HCC recurrence and excellent post-transplant survival, comparable to those meeting T2 criteria without downstaging. Owing to the small number of patients with 4-5 tumors, further investigations are needed to confirm the efficacy of downstaging in this subgroup.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: analysis of factors predicting outcome in 1074 patients in OPTN Region 5

Previous studies on loco-regional therapy (LRT) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in predicting outcome after liver transplant (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have shown inconsistent results. We analyzed the OPTN database in Region 5 from January 2004 to January 2009 and performed univariate and multivariate analysis of 11 pre-transplant recipient and donor variables in 1074 patients with HCC meeting Milan criteria to detect association with post-LT tumor recurrence or mortality. Mean waitlist time was 438 d. The 1- and 5-yr post-LT survival was 91.1% and 71.1%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, AFP before LT was the only predictor of HCC recurrence. The association between AFP and HCC recurrence was observed only in the subgroup receiving LRT but not in the subgroup without LRT. Predictors of mortality in multivariate analysis were HCC recurrence, Donor Risk Index, last AFP before LT, and MELD score. AFP before LT was the strongest predictor of post-transplant HCC recurrence or death in multivariate analysis. In conclusion, in Region 5 with prolonged waitlist time, high AFP was the only pre-transplant variable predicting post-transplant tumor recurrence and mortality for HCC meeting Milan criteria. Our results also supported the importance of the effects of LRT on AFP in predicting prognosis.

Implications of discordant findings between hepatic angiography and cross-sectional imaging in transplant candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma

The goal of this study was to determine whether the detection of discordant numbers of hypervascular foci at hepatic angiography versus contrast-enhanced (CE) cross-sectional imaging [computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)] is associated with adverse clinical outcomes in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are listed for liver transplantation. We retrospectively reviewed the records of 218 consecutive patients with HCC who were listed for a liver transplant and who underwent transarterial chemoembolization at our institution between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2010. Patients were grouped into 3 categories: (1) the number of nodules at CT/MRI was concordant with the number of hypervascular foci detected at angiography (n=136), (2) the number of nodules at CT/MRI was greater than the number of hypervascular foci at angiography (n=45), and (3) the number of nodules at CT/MRI was fewer than the number of hypervascular foci at angiography (n=37). The study outcomes were liver transplantation and tumor recurrence after transplantation. The detection of at least 3 more hypervascular foci at angiography versus the number of HCC nodules on CT/MRI was associated with a significantly lower rate of transplantation [multivariate subhazard ratio (SHR), 0.39; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.17-0.92]. The detection of fewer hypervascular foci at angiography versus the number of HCC nodules on CT/MRI was associated with a significantly higher rate of tumor recurrence after transplantation (multivariate SHR, 3.49; 95% CI, 1.27-9.56). In conclusion, liver transplant candidates with HCC who demonstrate discordant findings between angiography and CE CT or MRI may be at a higher risk for dropout from the transplant list and for tumor recurrence after transplantation.