A climate-induced tree species bottleneck for forest management in Europe

Large pulses of tree mortality have ushered in a major reorganization of Europe's forest ecosystems. To initiate a robust next generation of trees, the species that are planted today need to be climatically suitable throughout the entire twenty-first century. Here we developed species distribution models for 69 European tree species based on occurrence data from 238,080 plot locations to investigate the option space for current forest management in Europe. We show that the average pool of tree species continuously suitable throughout the century is smaller than that under current and end-of-century climate conditions, creating a tree species bottleneck for current management. If the need for continuous climate suitability throughout the lifespan of a tree planted today is considered, climate change shrinks the tree species pool available to management by between 33% and 49% of its current values (40% and 54% of potential end-of-century values), under moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6) and severe (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) climate change, respectively. This bottleneck could have strong negative impacts on timber production, carbon storage and biodiversity conservation, as only 3.18, 3.53 and 2.56 species of high potential for providing these functions remain suitable throughout the century on average per square kilometre in Europe. Our results indicate that the option space for silviculture is narrowing substantially because of climate change and that an important adaptation strategy in forestry-creating mixed forests-might be curtailed by widespread losses of climatically suitable tree species.

Invading plants remain undetected in a lag phase while they explore suitable climates

Successful alien species may experience a period of quiescence, known as the lag phase, before becoming invasive and widespread. The existence of lags introduces severe uncertainty in risk analyses of aliens as the present state of species is a poor predictor of future distributions, invasion success and impact. Predicting a species' ability to invade and pose negative impacts requires a quantitative understanding of the commonality and magnitude of lags, environmental factors and mechanisms likely to terminate lag. Using herbarium and climate data, we analysed over 5,700 time series (species × regions) in 3,505 naturalized plant species from nine regions in temperate and tropical climates to quantify lags and test whether there have been shifts in the species' climatic space during the transition from the lag phase to the expansion phase. Lags were identified in 35% of the assessed invasion events. We detected phylogenetic signals for lag phases in temperate climate regions and that annual self-fertilizing species were less likely to experience lags. Where lags existed, they had an average length of 40 years and a maximum of 320 years. Lengthy lags (>100 years) were more likely to occur in perennial plants and less frequent in self-pollinating species. For 98% of the species with a lag phase, the climate spaces sampled during the lag period differed from those in the expansion phase based on the assessment of centroid shifts or degree of climate space overlap. Our results highlight the importance of functional traits for the onset of the expansion phase and suggest that climate discovery may play a role in terminating the lag phase. However, other possibilities, such as sampling issues and climate niche shifts, cannot be ruled out.

Plant invasion and naturalization are influenced by genome size, ecology and economic use globally

Human factors and plant characteristics are important drivers of plant invasions, which threaten ecosystem integrity, biodiversity and human well-being. However, while previous studies often examined a limited number of factors or focused on a specific invasion stage (e.g., naturalization) for specific regions, a multi-factor and multi-stage analysis at the global scale is lacking. Here, we employ a multi-level framework to investigate the interplay between plant characteristics (genome size, Grime's adaptive CSR-strategies and native range size) and economic use and how these factors collectively affect plant naturalization and invasion success worldwide. While our findings derived from structural equation models highlight the substantial contribution of human assistance in both the naturalization and spread of invasive plants, we also uncovered the pivotal role of species' adaptive strategies among the factors studied, and the significantly varying influence of these factors across invasion stages. We further revealed that the effects of genome size on plant invasions were partially mediated by species adaptive strategies and native range size. Our study provides insights into the complex and dynamic process of plant invasions and identifies its key drivers worldwide.

Austrian farmers perception of new weeds

The composition of weed floras in Central European fields has shifted creating a novel management issue: new weeds, that is, species that are currently spreading and increasing in impact. In their role as primary decision makers on the ground, farmers' perception of these new weeds plays a pivotal role in collecting information on their occurrence and control. We conducted an online survey to determine if Austrian farmers recognized 15 selected new weed taxa (12 species and 3 genera) from their farm. The 181 surveyed farmers also estimated the required management effort for these species and elicited their current management practices. Additional questions were posed to understand farmers' general perception of changes in the weed flora. We used a generalized linear mixed model to estimate differences in management effort and identify new weeds that merit monitoring and management programs. Two weed genera (Fallopia spp. and Panicum spp.) showed significantly higher than average management effort. The most commonly used management measures were manual removal, herbicide use and crop rotation. A majority of farmers reported changes in the weed flora; over two thirds reported new species and over one third reported new weeds that were difficult to control. In summary, our results suggest that respondents were aware of the challenges posed by new weeds but required more information on management and prevention strategies.

Citizen science is a vital partnership for invasive alien species management and research

Invasive alien species (IAS) adversely impact biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and socio-economics. Citizen science can be an effective tool for IAS surveillance, management, and research, providing large datasets over wide spatial extents and long time periods, with public participants generating knowledge that supports action. We demonstrate how citizen science has contributed knowledge across the biological invasion process, especially for early detection and distribution mapping. However, we recommend that citizen science could be used more for assessing impacts and evaluating the success of IAS management. Citizen science does have limitations, and we explore solutions to two key challenges: ensuring data accuracy and dealing with uneven spatial coverage of potential recorders (which limits the dataset's "fit for purpose"). Greater co-development of citizen science with public stakeholders will help us better realize its potential across the biological invasion process and across ecosystems globally while meeting the needs of participants, local communities, scientists, and decision-makers.

Future changes in key plant traits across Central Europe vary with biogeographical status, woodiness, and habitat type

Many plant traits covary with environmental gradients, reflecting shifts in adaptive strategies and thus informing about potential consequences of future environmental change for vegetation and ecosystem functioning. Yet, the evidence of trait-environment relationships (TERs) remains too heterogeneous for reliable predictions, partially due to insufficient consideration of trait syndromes specific to certain growth forms and habitats. Moreover, it is still unclear whether non-native and native plants' traits align similarly along environmental gradients, limiting our ability to assess the impacts of future plant invasions. Using a Bayesian multilevel modelling framework, we assess TERs for native and non-native woody and herbaceous plants across six broad habitat types in Central Europe at a resolution of c. 130 km2 and use them to project trait change under future environmental change scenarios until 2081-2100. We model TERs between three key plant traits (maximum height, Hmax; specific leaf area, SLA; seed mass, SM) and individual environmental factors (7 climate variables and % urban land cover) and estimate trait change summed across all environmental effects. We also quantify the change in the average trait difference between native and non-native plants. Our models depict multiple TERs, with important differences attributed to biogeographical status and woodiness within and across habitat types. The overall magnitude of trait change is projected to be greater for non-native than native taxa and to increase under more extreme scenarios. Native woody plant assemblages may generally experience a future increase across all three traits, whereas woody non-natives may decline in Hmax and increase in SLA and SM. Herbaceous Hmax is estimated to increase and SLA to decrease in most habitats. The obtained trait projections highlight conditions of competitive advantage of non-native plants over natives and vice versa and can serve as starting points for projecting future changes in ecosystem functions and services.

Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models

The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change-for example, gradual 'press' disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent 'pulse' disturbances such as extreme events-affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.

A latitudinal gradient in Darwin's naturalization conundrum at the global scale for flowering plants

Darwin's naturalization conundrum describes two seemingly contradictory hypotheses regarding whether alien species closely or distantly related to native species should be more likely to naturalize in regional floras. Both expectations have accumulated empirical support, and whether such apparent inconsistency can be reconciled at the global scale is unclear. Here, using 219,520 native and 9,531 naturalized alien plant species across 487 globally distributed regions, we found a latitudinal gradient in Darwin's naturalization conundrum. Naturalized alien plant species are more closely related to native species at higher latitudes than they are at lower latitudes, indicating a greater influence of preadaptation in harsher climates. Human landscape modification resulted in even steeper latitudinal clines by selecting aliens distantly related to natives in warmer and drier regions. Our results demonstrate that joint consideration of climatic and anthropogenic conditions is critical to reconciling Darwin's naturalization conundrum.

The poleward naturalization of intracontinental alien plants

Plant introductions outside their native ranges by humans have led to substantial ecological consequences. While we have gained considerable knowledge about intercontinental introductions, the distribution and determinants of intracontinental aliens remain poorly understood. Here, we studied naturalized (i.e., self-sustaining) intracontinental aliens using native and alien floras of 243 mainland regions in North America, South America, Europe, and Australia. We revealed that 4510 plant species had intracontinental origins, accounting for 3.9% of all plant species and 56.7% of all naturalized species in these continents. In North America and Europe, the numbers of intracontinental aliens peaked at mid-latitudes, while the proportion peaked at high latitudes in Europe. Notably, we found predominant poleward naturalization, primarily due to larger native species pools in low-latitudes. Geographic and climatic distances constrained the naturalization of intracontinental aliens in Australia, Europe, and North America, but not in South America. These findings suggest that poleward naturalizations will accelerate, as high latitudes become suitable for more plant species due to climate change.

Evolutionary imbalance, climate and human history jointly shape the global biogeography of alien plants

Human activities are causing global biotic redistribution, translocating species and providing them with opportunities to establish populations beyond their native ranges. Species originating from certain global regions, however, are disproportionately represented among naturalized aliens. The evolutionary imbalance hypothesis posits that differences in absolute fitness among biogeographic divisions determine outcomes when biotas mix. Here, we compile data from native and alien distributions for nearly the entire global seed plant flora and find that biogeographic conditions predicted to drive evolutionary imbalance act alongside climate and anthropogenic factors to shape flows of successful aliens among regional biotas. Successful aliens tend to originate from large, biodiverse regions that support abundant populations and where species evolve against a diverse backdrop of competitors and enemies. We also reveal that these same native distribution characteristics are shared among the plants that humans select for cultivation and economic use. In addition to influencing species' innate potentials as invaders, we therefore suggest that evolutionary imbalance shapes plants' relationships with humans, impacting which species are translocated beyond their native distributions.

Patterns and drivers of climatic niche dynamics during biological invasions of island-endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds

Shifts between native and alien climatic niches pose a major challenge for predicting biological invasions. This is particularly true for insular species because geophysical barriers could constrain the realization of their fundamental niches, which may lead to underestimates of their invasion potential. To investigate this idea, we estimated the frequency of shifts between native and alien climatic niches and the magnitude of climatic mismatches using 80,148 alien occurrences of 46 endemic insular amphibian, reptile, and bird species. Then, we assessed the influence of nine potential predictors on climatic mismatches across taxa, based on species' characteristics, native range physical characteristics, and alien range properties. We found that climatic mismatch is common during invasions of endemic insular birds and reptiles: 78.3% and 55.1% of their respective alien records occurred outside of the environmental space of species' native climatic niche. In comparison, climatic mismatch was evident for only 16.2% of the amphibian invasions analyzed. Several predictors significantly explained climatic mismatch, and these varied among taxonomic groups. For amphibians, only native range size was associated with climatic mismatch. For reptiles, the magnitude of climatic mismatch was higher for species with narrow native altitudinal ranges, occurring in topographically complex or less remote islands, as well as for species with larger distances between their native and alien ranges. For birds, climatic mismatch was significantly larger for invasions on continents with higher phylogenetic diversity of the recipient community, and when the invader was more evolutionarily distinct. Our findings highlight that apparently common niche shifts of insular species may jeopardize our ability to forecast their potential invasions using correlative methods based on climatic variables. Also, we show which factors provide additional insights on the actual invasion potential of insular endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds.

Small genome size and variation in ploidy levels support the naturalization of vascular plants but constrain their invasive spread

Karyological characteristics are among the traits underpinning the invasion success of vascular plants. Using 11 049 species, we tested the effects of genome size and ploidy levels on plant naturalization (species forming self-sustaining populations where they are not native) and invasion (naturalized species spreading rapidly and having environmental impact). The probability that a species naturalized anywhere in the world decreased with increasing monoploid genome size (DNA content of a single chromosome set). Naturalized or invasive species with intermediate monoploid genomes were reported from many regions, but those with either small or large genomes occurred in fewer regions. By contrast, large holoploid genome sizes (DNA content of the unreplicated gametic nucleus) constrained naturalization but favoured invasion. We suggest that a small genome is an advantage during naturalization, being linked to traits favouring adaptation to local conditions, but for invasive spread, traits associated with a large holoploid genome, where the impact of polyploidy may act, facilitate long-distance dispersal and competition with other species.

Climatic stability and geological history shape global centers of neo- and paleoendemism in seed plants

Assessing the distribution of geographically restricted and evolutionarily unique species and their underlying drivers is key to understanding biogeographical processes and critical for global conservation prioritization. Here, we quantified the geographic distribution and drivers of phylogenetic endemism for ~320,000 seed plants worldwide and identified centers and drivers of evolutionarily young (neoendemism) and evolutionarily old endemism (paleoendemism). Tropical and subtropical islands as well as tropical mountain regions displayed the world's highest phylogenetic endemism. Most tropical rainforest regions emerged as centers of paleoendemism, while most Mediterranean-climate regions showed high neoendemism. Centers where high neo- and paleoendemism coincide emerged on some oceanic and continental fragment islands, in Mediterranean-climate regions and parts of the Irano-Turanian floristic region. Global variation in phylogenetic endemism was well explained by a combination of past and present environmental factors (79.8 to 87.7% of variance explained) and most strongly related to environmental heterogeneity. Also, warm and wet climates, geographic isolation, and long-term climatic stability emerged as key drivers of phylogenetic endemism. Neo- and paleoendemism were jointly explained by climatic and geological history. Long-term climatic stability promoted the persistence of paleoendemics, while the isolation of oceanic islands and their unique geological histories promoted neoendemism. Mountainous regions promoted both neo- and paleoendemism, reflecting both diversification and persistence over time. Our study provides insights into the evolutionary underpinnings of biogeographical patterns in seed plants and identifies the areas on Earth with the highest evolutionary and biogeographical uniqueness-key information for setting global conservation priorities.

Human appropriation of net primary production as driver of change in landscape-scale vertebrate richness

Aim

Land use is the most pervasive driver of biodiversity loss. Predicting its impact on species richness (SR) is often based on indicators of habitat loss. However, the degradation of habitats, especially through land-use intensification, also affects species. Here, we evaluate whether an integrative metric of land-use intensity, the human appropriation of net primary production, is correlated with the decline of SR in used landscapes across the globe.

Location

Global.

Time period

Present.

Major taxa studied

Birds, mammals and amphibians.

Methods

Based on species range maps (spatial resolution: 20 km × 20 km) and an area-of-habitat approach, we calibrated a "species-energy model" by correlating the SR of three groups of vertebrates with net primary production and biogeographical covariables in "wilderness" areas (i.e., those where available energy is assumed to be still at pristine levels). We used this model to project the difference between pristine SR and the SR corresponding to the energy remaining in used landscapes (i.e., SR loss expected owing to human energy extraction outside wilderness areas). We validated the projected species loss by comparison with the realized and impending loss reconstructed from habitat conversion and documented by national Red Lists.

Results

Species-energy models largely explained landscape-scale variation of mapped SR in wilderness areas (adjusted R 2-values: 0.79-0.93). Model-based projections of SR loss were lower, on average, than reconstructed and documented ones, but the spatial patterns were correlated significantly, with stronger correlation in mammals (Pearson's r = 0.68) than in amphibians (r = 0.60) and birds (r = 0.57).

Main conclusions

Our results suggest that the human appropriation of net primary production is a useful indicator of heterotrophic species loss in used landscapes, hence we recommend its inclusion in models based on species-area relationships to improve predictions of land-use-driven biodiversity loss.

The impact of land use on non-native species incidence and number in local assemblages worldwide

While the regional distribution of non-native species is increasingly well documented for some taxa, global analyses of non-native species in local assemblages are still missing. Here, we use a worldwide collection of assemblages from five taxa - ants, birds, mammals, spiders and vascular plants - to assess whether the incidence, frequency and proportions of naturalised non-native species depend on type and intensity of land use. In plants, assemblages of primary vegetation are least invaded. In the other taxa, primary vegetation is among the least invaded land-use types, but one or several other types have equally low levels of occurrence, frequency and proportions of non-native species. High land use intensity is associated with higher non-native incidence and frequency in primary vegetation, while intensity effects are inconsistent for other land-use types. These findings highlight the potential dual role of unused primary vegetation in preserving native biodiversity and in conferring resistance against biological invasions.

Dynamics of standing deadwood in Austrian forests under varying forest management and climatic conditions

Standing deadwood is an important structural component of forest ecosystems. Its occurrence and dynamics influence both carbon fluxes and the availability of habitats for many species. However, deadwood is greatly reduced in managed, and even in many currently unmanaged temperate forests in Europe. To date, few studies have examined how environmental factors, forest management and changing climate affect the availability of standing deadwood and its dynamics.Data from five periods of the Austrian National Forest Inventory (1981-2009) were used to (I) analyse standing deadwood volume in relation to living volume stock, elevation, eco-region, forest type, ownership and management intensity, (II) investigate the influence of forest ownership and management intensity on snag persistence and (III) define drivers of standing deadwood volume loss for seven tree genera (Abies, Alnus, Fagus, Larix, Picea, Pinus and Quercus) using tree-related, site-related and climate-related variables, and predict volume loss under two climate change scenarios.Standing deadwood volume was mainly determined by living volume stock and elevation, resulting in different distributions between eco-regions. While forest type and management intensity influenced standing deadwood volume only slightly, the latter exhibited a significant effect on persistence. Snag persistence was shorter in intensively managed forests than in extensively managed forests and shorter in private than in public forests.Standing deadwood volume loss was driven by a combination of diameter at breast height, elevation, as well as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. Volume loss under climate change predictions revealed constant rates for moderate climate change (RCP2.6) by the end of the 21st century. Under severe climate change conditions (RCP8.5), volume loss increased for most tree genera, with Quercus, Alnus and Picea showing different predictions depending on the model used as the baseline scenario. We observed trends towards faster volume loss at higher temperatures and lower elevations and slower volume loss at high precipitation levels. The tree genera most susceptible to climate change were Pinus and Fagus, while Abies was least susceptible. Synthesis and applications. We recommend to protect standing dead trees from regular harvesting to ensure the full decomposition process. The consequences for decomposition-dependent species must be taken into account to evaluate the influences of management and climate change on standing deadwood dynamics.

Long-term trajectories of non-native vegetation on islands globally

Human-mediated changes in island vegetation are, among others, largely caused by the introduction and establishment of non-native species. However, data on past changes in non-native plant species abundance that predate historical documentation and censuses are scarce. Islands are among the few places where we can track human arrival in natural systems allowing us to reveal changes in vegetation dynamics with the arrival of non-native species. We matched fossil pollen data with botanical status information (native, non-native), and quantified the timing, trajectories and magnitude of non-native plant vegetational change on 29 islands over the past 5000 years. We recorded a proportional increase in pollen of non-native plant taxa within the last 1000 years. Individual island trajectories are context-dependent and linked to island settlement histories. Our data show that non-native plant introductions have a longer and more dynamic history than is generally recognized, with critical implications for biodiversity baselines and invasion biology.

The global biodiversity footprint of urban consumption: A spatially explicit assessment for the city of Vienna

With ongoing global urbanization processes and consumption patterns increasingly recognized as key determinants of environmental change, a better understanding of the links between urban consumption and biodiversity loss is paramount. Here we quantify the global biodiversity footprint (BDF) of Vienna's (Austria) biomass consumption. We present a state-of-the-art product specific approach to (a) locate the production areas required for Vienna's consumption and map Vienna's BDF by (b) linking them with data taken from a previously published countryside Species-Area-Relationship (cSAR) model with a representation of land-use intensity. We found that food has the largest share in Vienna's BDF (58 %), followed by biomass for material applications (28 %) and bioenergy (13 %). The total BDF occurs predominantly within Austria and in its neighbouring countries, with ~20 % located outside Europe. Although the per capita biomass consumption in Vienna is above the global average, global and Viennese per capita BDFs are roughly equal, indicating that Vienna sources its products from high-yield regions with efficient production systems and comparatively low native species richness. We conclude that, among others, dietary changes offer a key leverage point for reducing the urban BDF, while expanding the use of biomass for material and energy use may increase the BDF and requires appropriate monitoring.

Global models and predictions of plant diversity based on advanced machine learning techniques

Despite the paramount role of plant diversity for ecosystem functioning, biogeochemical cycles, and human welfare, knowledge of its global distribution is still incomplete, hampering basic research and biodiversity conservation. Here, we used machine learning (random forests, extreme gradient boosting, and neural networks) and conventional statistical methods (generalized linear models and generalized additive models) to test environment-related hypotheses of broad-scale vascular plant diversity gradients and to model and predict species richness and phylogenetic richness worldwide. To this end, we used 830 regional plant inventories including c. 300 000 species and predictors of past and present environmental conditions. Machine learning showed a superior performance, explaining up to 80.9% of species richness and 83.3% of phylogenetic richness, illustrating the great potential of such techniques for disentangling complex and interacting associations between the environment and plant diversity. Current climate and environmental heterogeneity emerged as the primary drivers, while past environmental conditions left only small but detectable imprints on plant diversity. Finally, we combined predictions from multiple modeling techniques (ensemble predictions) to reveal global patterns and centers of plant diversity at multiple resolutions down to 7774 km² . Our predictive maps provide accurate estimates of global plant diversity available at grain sizes relevant for conservation and macroecology.

The worldwide networks of spread of recorded alien species

Our ability to predict the spread of alien species is largely based on knowledge of previous invasion dynamics of individual species. However, in view of the large and growing number of alien species, understanding universal spread patterns common among taxa but specific to regions would considerably improve our ability to predict future dynamics of biological invasions. Here, using a comprehensive dataset of years of first record of alien species for four major biological groups (birds, nonmarine fishes, insects, and vascular plants), we applied a network approach to uncover frequent sequential patterns of first recordings of alien species across countries worldwide. Our analysis identified a few countries as consistent early recorders of alien species, with many subsequent records reported from countries in close geographic vicinity. These findings indicate that the spread network of alien species consists of two levels, a backbone of main dispersal hubs, driving intercontinental species movement, and subsequent intracontinental radiative spread in their vicinity. Geographical proximity and climatic similarity were significant predictors of same-species recording among countries. International trade was a significant predictor of the relative timing of species recordings, with countries having higher levels of trade flows consistently recording the species earlier. Targeting the countries that have emerged as hubs for the early spread of alien species may have substantial cascading effects on the global spread network of alien species, significantly reducing biological invasions. Furthermore, using these countries as early-warning system of upcoming invasions may also boost national prevention and invasion preparedness efforts.

Naturalized alien floras still carry the legacy of European colonialism

The redistribution of alien species across the globe accelerated with the start of European colonialism. European powers were responsible for the deliberate and accidental transportation, introduction and establishment of alien species throughout their occupied territories and the metropolitan state. Here, we show that these activities left a lasting imprint on the global distribution of alien plants. Specifically, we investigated how four European empires (British, Spanish, Portuguese and Dutch) structured current alien floras worldwide. We found that compositional similarity is higher than expected among regions that once were occupied by the same empire. Further, we provide strong evidence that floristic similarity between regions occupied by the same empire increases with the time a region was occupied. Network analysis suggests that historically more economically or strategically important regions have more similar alien floras across regions occupied by an empire. Overall, we find that European colonial history is still detectable in alien floras worldwide.

No species loss, but pronounced species turnover in grasslands in the Northern Alps over 25 years

The abandonment of marginally productive habitats and the intensification of land use on productive sites have caused transformative changes in vegetation composition in Central Europe. In this study, after 25 years we resurveyed a total of 145 grassland relevés from the mid-1990s in a grassland-dominated valley of the Northern Alps of Upper Austria. We studied changes in richness and composition, and related these to underlying drivers. We found that the average species number in plots increased from 46 in the first survey period to 49 in the second one. Median species richness across sites significantly increased from 1995 to 2020 for Festuco-Brometea (55-61 species) and Galio-Urticetea (24-32 species), but did not show any significant change for the other classes. Further, we recorded substantial species turnover, with winners consisting mostly of species that prefer nutrient-rich sites, while losers were predominantly species of nutrient-poor sites. In particular, using Ellenberg Indicator Values for calculating community indices, we found an indication for ongoing eutrophication in vegetation types of nutrient-poor vegetation classes (Festuco-Brometea and Calluno-Ulicetea), and in wet habitats (Scheuchzerio-Caricetea fuscae). Community indices of wet habitats also showed clear signs of becoming more mesic. Thermophilization of community indices was evident across several vegetation classes. Further, alien species that were very rare in the mid-1990s became more abundant in the resurveyed plots, although the level of invasion is still low. Finally, community values for nutrients of plots that are located in a protected area that has been established in 2014 did not increase significantly, while this was the case in plots outside the protected area, indicating that the management of the protected area has positive effects in halting eutrophication. We conclude that despite overall species richness changing only moderately between both surveys, substantial changes in community composition toward more nitrophilic and thermophilic conditions occurred.

A function-based typology for Earth's ecosystems

As the United Nations develops a post-2020 global biodiversity framework for the Convention on Biological Diversity, attention is focusing on how new goals and targets for ecosystem conservation might serve its vision of 'living in harmony with nature'1,2. Advancing dual imperatives to conserve biodiversity and sustain ecosystem services requires reliable and resilient generalizations and predictions about ecosystem responses to environmental change and management3. Ecosystems vary in their biota4, service provision5 and relative exposure to risks6, yet there is no globally consistent classification of ecosystems that reflects functional responses to change and management. This hampers progress on developing conservation targets and sustainability goals. Here we present the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Ecosystem Typology, a conceptually robust, scalable, spatially explicit approach for generalizations and predictions about functions, biota, risks and management remedies across the entire biosphere. The outcome of a major cross-disciplinary collaboration, this novel framework places all of Earth's ecosystems into a unifying theoretical context to guide the transformation of ecosystem policy and management from global to local scales. This new information infrastructure will support knowledge transfer for ecosystem-specific management and restoration, globally standardized ecosystem risk assessments, natural capital accounting and progress on the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.

Alien and cryptogenic fungi and oomycetes in Austria: an annotated checklist (2nd edition)

Fungal invasions can have far-reaching consequences, and despite increasing relevance, fungi are notoriously underrepresented in invasion science. Here, we present the second annotated checklist for alien and cryptogenic fungi and oomycetes in Austria. This list contains 375 taxa of which 278 are classified as established; compared to the first checklist from 2002, this amounts to an almost five-fold increase and the number of decade-wise first records is steadily rising since the mid-twentieth century. The introduction pathway is unclear for the vast majority of taxa, while the main means of spread within the country is unassisted secondary spread. Fungi were predominantly introduced from the Northern Hemisphere, especially North America and Temperate Asia. Rates of newly recorded alien fungi differ among phyla; the majority belongs to the Ascomycota, which experienced an 9.6-fold increase in numbers. Orders found most frequently are powdery mildews (Erysiphales, Ascomycota), downy mildews (Peronosporales, Oomycota), agarics (Agaricales, Basidiomycota), Mycosphaerellales (Ascomycota), rusts (Pucciniales, Basidiomycota) and Pleosporales (Ascomycota). The majority (about 80%) of the taxa are plant pathogens, while animal pathogens are few but severely affecting their native hosts. The dominance of pathogens in our checklist underlines the need of better tackling fungal invasions-especially in the light of emerging infectious diseases-and highlights potential knowledge gaps for ectomycorrhizal and saprobic alien fungi, whose invasion processes are often much more inconspicuous. Our results show that fungal invasions are a phenomenon of increasing importance, and collaborative efforts are needed for advancing the knowledge and management of this important group.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-022-02896-2.

Identifying, reducing, and communicating uncertainty in community science: a focus on alien species

Community science (also often referred to as citizen science) provides a unique opportunity to address questions beyond the scope of other research methods whilst simultaneously engaging communities in the scientific process. This leads to broad educational benefits, empowers people, and can increase public awareness of societally relevant issues such as the biodiversity crisis. As such, community science has become a favourable framework for researching alien species where data on the presence, absence, abundance, phenology, and impact of species is important in informing management decisions. However, uncertainties arising at different stages can limit the interpretation of data and lead to projects failing to achieve their intended outcomes. Focusing on alien species centered community science projects, we identified key research questions and the relevant uncertainties that arise during the process of developing the study design, for example, when collecting the data and during the statistical analyses. Additionally, we assessed uncertainties from a linguistic perspective, and how the communication stages among project coordinators, participants and other stakeholders can alter the way in which information may be interpreted. We discuss existing methods for reducing uncertainty and suggest further solutions to improve data reliability. Further, we make suggestions to reduce the uncertainties that emerge at each project step and provide guidance and recommendations that can be readily applied in practice. Reducing uncertainties is essential and necessary to strengthen the scientific and community outcomes of community science, which is of particular importance to ensure the success of projects aimed at detecting novel alien species and monitoring their dynamics across space and time.

The EICAT+ framework enables classification of positive impacts of alien taxa on native biodiversity

Species introduced through human-related activities beyond their native range, termed alien species, have various impacts worldwide. The IUCN Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) is a global standard to assess negative impacts of alien species on native biodiversity. Alien species can also positively affect biodiversity (for instance, through food and habitat provisioning or dispersal facilitation) but there is currently no standardized and evidence-based system to classify positive impacts. We fill this gap by proposing EICAT+, which uses 5 semiquantitative scenarios to categorize the magnitude of positive impacts, and describes underlying mechanisms. EICAT+ can be applied to all alien taxa at different spatial and organizational scales. The application of EICAT+ expands our understanding of the consequences of biological invasions and can inform conservation decisions.

The role of phylogenetic relatedness on alien plant success depends on the stage of invasion

Darwin's naturalization hypothesis predicts successful alien invaders to be distantly related to native species, whereas his pre-adaptation hypothesis predicts the opposite. It has been suggested that depending on the invasion stage (that is, introduction, naturalization and invasiveness), both hypotheses, now known as Darwin's naturalization conundrum, could hold true. We tested this by analysing whether the likelihood of introduction for cultivation, as well as the subsequent stages of naturalization and spread (that is, becoming invasive) of species alien to Southern Africa are correlated with their phylogenetic distance to the native flora of this region. Although species are more likely to be introduced for cultivation if they are distantly related to the native flora, the probability of subsequent naturalization was higher for species closely related to the native flora. Furthermore, the probability of becoming invasive was higher for naturalized species distantly related to the native flora. These results were consistent across three different metrics of phylogenetic distance. Our study reveals that the relationship between phylogenetic distance to the native flora and the success of an alien species changes from one invasion stage to the other.

Capacity of countries to reduce biological invasions

The extent and impacts of biological invasions on biodiversity are largely shaped by an array of socio-economic and environmental factors, which exhibit high variation among countries. Yet, a global analysis of how these factors vary across countries is currently lacking. Here, we investigate how five broad, country-specific socio-economic and environmental indices (Governance, Trade, Environmental Performance, Lifestyle and Education, Innovation) explain country-level (1) established alien species (EAS) richness of eight taxonomic groups, and (2) proactive or reactive capacity to prevent and manage biological invasions and their impacts. These indices underpin many aspects of the invasion process, including the introduction, establishment, spread and management of alien species. They are also general enough to enable a global comparison across countries, and are therefore essential for defining future scenarios for biological invasions. Models including Trade, Governance, Lifestyle and Education, or a combination of these, best explained EAS richness across taxonomic groups and national proactive or reactive capacity. Historical (1996 or averaged over 1996-2015) levels of Governance and Trade better explained both EAS richness and the capacity of countries to manage invasions than more recent (2015) levels, revealing a historical legacy with important implications for the future of biological invasions. Using Governance and Trade to define a two-dimensional socio-economic space in which the position of a country captures its capacity to address issues of biological invasions, we identified four main clusters of countries in 2015. Most countries had an increase in Trade over the past 25 years, but trajectories were more geographically heterogeneous for Governance. Declines in levels of Governance are concerning as they may be responsible for larger levels of invasions in the future. By identifying the factors influencing EAS richness and the regions most susceptible to changes in these factors, our results provide novel insights to integrate biological invasions into scenarios of biodiversity change to better inform decision-making for policy and the management of biological invasions.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-022-01166-3.

GIRAE: a generalised approach for linking the total impact of invasion to species' range, abundance and per-unit effects

The total impact of an alien species was conceptualised as the product of its range size, local abundance and per-unit effect in a seminal paper by Parker et al. (Biol Invasions 1:3-19, 1999). However, a practical approach for estimating the three components has been lacking. Here, we generalise the impact formula and, through use of regression models, estimate the relationship between the three components of impact, an approach we term GIRAE (Generalised Impact = Range size × Abundance × per-unit Effect). We discuss how GIRAE can be applied to multiple types of impact, including environmental impacts, damage and management costs. We propose two methods for applying GIRAE. The species-specific method computes the relationship between impact, range size, abundance and per-unit effect for a given species across multiple invaded sites or regions of different sizes. The multi-species method combines data from multiple species across multiple sites or regions to calculate a per-unit effect for each species and is computed using a single regression model. The species-specific method is more accurate, but it requires a large amount of data for each species and assumes a constant per-unit effect for a species across the invaded area. The multi-species method is more easily applicable and data-parsimonious, but assumes the same relationship between impact, range size and abundance for all considered species. We illustrate these methods using data about money spent managing plant invasions in different biomes of South Africa. We found clear differences between species in terms of money spent per unit area invaded, with per-unit expenditure varying substantially between biomes for some species-insights that are useful for monitoring and evaluating management. GIRAE offers a versatile and practical method that can be applied to many different types of data to better understand and manage the impacts of biological invasions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-022-02836-0.

Biological invasion costs reveal insufficient proactive management worldwide

The global increase in biological invasions is placing growing pressure on the management of ecological and economic systems. However, the effectiveness of current management expenditure is difficult to assess due to a lack of standardised measurement across spatial, taxonomic and temporal scales. Furthermore, there is no quantification of the spending difference between pre-invasion (e.g. prevention) and post-invasion (e.g. control) stages, although preventative measures are considered to be the most cost-effective. Here, we use a comprehensive database of invasive alien species economic costs (InvaCost) to synthesise and model the global management costs of biological invasions, in order to provide a better understanding of the stage at which these expenditures occur. Since 1960, reported management expenditures have totalled at least US$95.3 billion (in 2017 values), considering only highly reliable and actually observed costs - 12-times less than damage costs from invasions ($1130.6 billion). Pre-invasion management spending ($2.8 billion) was over 25-times lower than post-invasion expenditure ($72.7 billion). Management costs were heavily geographically skewed towards North America (54%) and Oceania (30%). The largest shares of expenditures were directed towards invasive alien invertebrates in terrestrial environments. Spending on invasive alien species management has grown by two orders of magnitude since 1960, reaching an estimated $4.2 billion per year globally (in 2017 values) in the 2010s, but remains 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than damages. National management spending increased with incurred damage costs, with management actions delayed on average by 11 years globally following damage reporting. These management delays on the global level have caused an additional invasion cost of approximately $1.2 trillion, compared to scenarios with immediate management. Our results indicate insufficient management - particularly pre-invasion - and urge better investment to prevent future invasions and to control established alien species. Recommendations to improve reported management cost comprehensiveness, resolution and terminology are also made.

Environmental drivers and spatial scaling of species abundance distributions in Palaearctic grassland vegetation

Species abundance distributions (SADs) link species richness with species abundances and are an important tool in the quantitative analysis of ecological communities. Niche‐based and sample‐based SAD models predict different spatial scaling properties of SAD parameters. However, empirical research on SAD scaling properties is largely missing. Here we extracted percentage cover values of all occurring vascular plants as proxies of their abundance in 1725 10‐m² plots from the GrassPlot database, covering 47 regional data sets of 19 different grasslands and other open vegetation types of the Palaearctic biogeographic realm. For each plot, we fitted the Weibull distribution, a model that is able to effectively mimic other distributions like the log‐series and lognormal, to the species–log abundance rank order distribution. We calculated the skewness and kurtosis of the empirical distributions and linked these moments, along with the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distribution, to plot climatic and soil characteristics. The Weibull distribution provided excellent fits to grassland plant communities and identified four basic types of communities characterized by different degrees of dominance. Shape and scale parameter values of local communities on poorer soils were largely in accordance with log‐series distributions. Proportions of subdominant species tended to be lower than predicted by the standard lognormal SAD. Successive accumulation of plots of the same vegetation type yielded nonlinear spatial scaling of SAD moments and Weibull parameters. This scaling was largely independent of environmental correlates and geographic plot position. Our findings caution against simple generalizations about the mechanisms that generate SADs. We argue that in grasslands, lognormal‐type SADs tend to prevail within a wider range of environmental conditions, including more extreme habitats such as arid environments. In contrast, log‐series distributions are mainly restricted to comparatively species‐rich communities on humid and fertile soils.

Introduction, spread, and impacts of invasive alien mammal species in Europe

Biological invasions have emerged as one of the main drivers of biodiversity change and decline, and numbers of species classed as alien in parts of their ranges are rapidly rising. The European Union established a dedicated regulation to limit the impacts of invasive alien species (IAS), which is focused on the species on a Union List of IAS of particular concern. However, no previous study has specifically addressed the ecology of invasive alien mammals included on the Union List.We performed a systematic review of published literature on these species. We retrieved 262 publications dealing with 16 species, and we complemented these with the most up-to-date information extracted from global databases on IAS.We show that most of the study species reached Europe as pets and then escaped from captivity or were intentionally released. On average each year in the period 1981-2020, 1.2 species were recorded for the first time as aliens in European countries, and most species are still expanding their alien ranges by colonising neighbouring territories. France is the most invaded nation, followed by Germany, Italy, and the Russian Federation, and the muskrat Ondatra zibethicus, the American mink Neovison vison, and the raccoon dog Nyctereutes procyonoides are the most widespread species, having invaded at least 27 countries each. Invasive mammals of European Union concern are threatening native biodiversity and human well-being: worryingly, 81% of the 16 study species are implicated in the epidemiological cycle of zoonotic pathogens.Containing secondary spread to further countries is of paramount importance to avoid the establishment of new populations of invasive mammals and the related impacts on native communities, ecosystem services, and human health.We present a compendium on the ecology and impacts of invasive mammals of European Union concern. It can be used to assist environmental policies, identify and subsequently fill knowledge gaps, and inform stakeholders.

What is valued in conservation? A framework to compare ethical perspectives

Perspectives in conservation are based on a variety of value systems. Such differences in how people value nature and its components lead to different evaluations of the morality of conservation goals and approaches, and often underlie disagreements in the formulation and implementation of environmental management policies. Specifically, whether a conservation action (e.g. killing feral cats to reduce predation on bird species threatened with extinction) is viewed as appropriate or not can vary among people with different value systems. Here, we present a conceptual, mathematical framework intended as a tool to systematically explore and clarify core value statements in conservation approaches. Its purpose is to highlight how fundamental differences between these value systems can lead to different prioritizations of available management options and offer a common ground for discourse. The proposed equations decompose the question underlying many controversies around management decisions in conservation: what or who is valued, how, and to what extent? We compare how management decisions would likely be viewed under three idealised value systems: ecocentric conservation, which aims to preserve biodiversity; new conservation, which considers that biodiversity can only be preserved if it benefits humans; and sentientist conservation, which aims at minimising suffering for sentient beings. We illustrate the utility of the framework by applying it to case studies involving invasive alien species, rewilding, and trophy hunting. By making value systems and their consequences in practice explicit, the framework facilitates debates on contested conservation issues, and complements philosophical discursive approaches about moral reasoning. We believe dissecting the core value statements on which conservation decisions are based will provide an additional tool to understand and address conservation conflicts.

Think globally, measure locally: The MIREN standardized protocol for monitoring plant species distributions along elevation gradients

Climate change and other global change drivers threaten plant diversity in mountains worldwide. A widely documented response to such environmental modifications is for plant species to change their elevational ranges. Range shifts are often idiosyncratic and difficult to generalize, partly due to variation in sampling methods. There is thus a need for a standardized monitoring strategy that can be applied across mountain regions to assess distribution changes and community turnover of native and non‐native plant species over space and time. Here, we present a conceptually intuitive and standardized protocol developed by the Mountain Invasion Research Network (MIREN) to systematically quantify global patterns of native and non‐native species distributions along elevation gradients and shifts arising from interactive effects of climate change and human disturbance. Usually repeated every five years, surveys consist of 20 sample sites located at equal elevation increments along three replicate roads per sampling region. At each site, three plots extend from the side of a mountain road into surrounding natural vegetation. The protocol has been successfully used in 18 regions worldwide from 2007 to present. Analyses of one point in time already generated some salient results, and revealed region‐specific elevational patterns of native plant species richness, but a globally consistent elevational decline in non‐native species richness. Non‐native plants were also more abundant directly adjacent to road edges, suggesting that disturbed roadsides serve as a vector for invasions into mountains. From the upcoming analyses of time series, even more exciting results can be expected, especially about range shifts. Implementing the protocol in more mountain regions globally would help to generate a more complete picture of how global change alters species distributions. This would inform conservation policy in mountain ecosystems, where some conservation policies remain poorly implemented.

Introducing the Combined Atlas Framework for large‐scale web‐based data visualization – The GloNAF Atlas of Plant Invasion

Large‐scale biodiversity data, for example, on species distribution and richness information, are being mobilized and becoming available at an increasing rate. Interactive web applications like atlases have been developed to visualize available datasets and make them accessible to a wider audience. Web mapping tools are changing rapidly, and different underlying concepts have been developed to visualize datasets at a high cartographic standard.

Here, we introduce the Combined Atlas Framework for the development of interactive web atlases for ecological data visualization. We combine two existing approaches: the five stages of the user‐centred design approach for web mapping applications and the three U approach for interface success.

Subsequently, we illustrate the use of this framework by developing the Atlas of Plant Invasions based on the Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database. This case study illustrates how the newly developed Combined Atlas Framework with a user‐centred design philosophy can generate measurable success through communication with the target user group, iterative prototyping and competitive analysis of other existing web mapping approaches.

The framework is useful in creating an atlas that employs user feedback to determine usability and utility features within an interactive atlas system. Finally, this framework will enable a better‐informed development process of future visualization and dissemination of biodiversity data through web mapping applications and interactive atlases.

Relative effects of land conversion and land-use intensity on terrestrial vertebrate diversity

Land-use has transformed ecosystems over three quarters of the terrestrial surface, with massive repercussions on biodiversity. Land-use intensity is known to contribute to the effects of land-use on biodiversity, but the magnitude of this contribution remains uncertain. Here, we use a modified countryside species-area model to compute a global account of the impending biodiversity loss caused by current land-use patterns, explicitly addressing the role of land-use intensity based on two sets of intensity indicators. We find that land-use entails the loss of ~15% of terrestrial vertebrate species from the average 5 × 5 arcmin-landscape outside remaining wilderness areas and ~14% of their average native area-of-habitat, with a risk of global extinction for 556 individual species. Given the large fraction of global land currently used under low land-use intensity, we find its contribution to biodiversity loss to be substantial (~25%). While both sets of intensity indicators yield similar global average results, we find regional differences between them and discuss data gaps. Our results support calls for improved sustainable intensification strategies and demand-side actions to reduce trade-offs between food security and biodiversity conservation.

The global loss of floristic uniqueness

Regional species assemblages have been shaped by colonization, speciation and extinction over millions of years. Humans have altered biogeography by introducing species to new ranges. However, an analysis of how strongly naturalized plant species (i.e. alien plants that have established self-sustaining populations) affect the taxonomic and phylogenetic uniqueness of regional floras globally is still missing. Here, we present such an analysis with data from native and naturalized alien floras in 658 regions around the world. We find strong taxonomic and phylogenetic floristic homogenization overall, and that the natural decline in floristic similarity with increasing geographic distance is weakened by naturalized species. Floristic homogenization increases with climatic similarity, which emphasizes the importance of climate matching in plant naturalization. Moreover, floristic homogenization is greater between regions with current or past administrative relationships, indicating that being part of the same country as well as historical colonial ties facilitate floristic exchange, most likely due to more intensive trade and transport between such regions. Our findings show that naturalization of alien plants threatens taxonomic and phylogenetic uniqueness of regional floras globally. Unless more effective biosecurity measures are implemented, it is likely that with ongoing globalization, even the most distant regions will lose their floristic uniqueness.

Risks and opportunities of assisted colonization: the perspectives of experts

Owing to climate change and other anthropogenic environmental changes, the suitability of locations is changing for many biota that consequently have to adapt in situ or to move to other areas. To mitigate the effects of such pressures, assisted colonization is a conservation tool developed to reduce extinction risks by intentionally moving and releasing an organism outside its native range, and thus, to facilitate tracking changing environmental conditions. This conservation tool has been proposed for threatened animals or plants that presumably cannot adapt in situ or follow environmental changes by dispersal or migration. However, there have been contentious debates about the shortcomings and risks of implementing assisted colonization. For this reason, we evaluated the specific opinions of global experts for assisted colonization on potential risks and opportunities that this approach offers. For this purpose, we used an online survey targeted at authors of scientific publications on assisted colonization. The majority (82%) of the 48 respondents were in favor of applying assisted colonization for species that are at risk of global extinction due to anthropogenic environmental change. Most respondents agreed that assisted colonization should be considered only when other conservation tools are not available and that certain preconditions must be met. Some of these were already highlighted in the IUCN guidelines for assisted colonization and include a completed risk assessment, clearly defined management plans and secured political as well as financial support. The advocacy of assisted colonization in response to anthropogenic global environmental changes was only weakly dependent on the geographic origin of the experts and their working background. Regarding possible risks, most of the respondents were concerned about consequences like failure of the long-term establishment of the translocated species and the transmission of diseases and invasiveness potentially endangering native biota. To keep these risks as low as possible most of the experts agreed that a target area must have a reasonable carrying capacity to sustain a minimum viable population and that adaptive management should be implemented. Careful evaluation of assisted colonization projects is required to generate further evidence that needs to be considered for further developing conservation tools for the Anthropocene.

Risk Management Assessment Improves the Cost-Effectiveness of Invasive Species Prioritisation

Simple Summary

International agreements commit nations to control or eradicate invasive alien species. The scale of this challenge exceeds available resources and so it is essential to prioritise the management of invasive alien species. Species prioritisation for management may consider the likelihood and scale of impact (risk assessment) and the feasibility, costs and effectiveness of management (risk management). Risk assessment processes are widely used, risk management less so. To assess the cost effectiveness of prioritisation, we considered 26 high-risk species considered for eradication from Great Britain (GB) with pre-existing risk assessment and risk management outputs. We used these to consider the relative reduction in risk per unit cost when managing prioritised species based on different criteria. We showed that the cost effectiveness of prioritisation within our sample using risk assessment scores alone performed no better than a random ranking of the species. In contrast, prioritisation including management feasibility produced nearly two orders of magnitude improvement compared to random ranking. We concluded that basing management actions on priorities based solely on risk assessment without considering management feasibility risks the inefficient use of limited resources. In this study, the cost effectiveness of species prioritisation action was greatly increased by the inclusion of a risk management assessment.

Abstract

International agreements commit nations to control or eradicate invasive alien species. The scale of this challenge exceeds available resources and so it is essential to prioritise the management of invasive alien species. Species prioritisation for management typically involves a hierarchy of processes that consider the likelihood and scale of impact (risk assessment) and the feasibility, costs and effectiveness of management (risk management). Risk assessment processes are widely used, risk management less so, but are a crucial component of resource decision making. To assess the cost-effectiveness of prioritisation, we considered 26 high-risk species considered for eradication from Great Britain (GB) with pre-existing risk assessment and risk management outputs. We extracted scores to reflect the overall risk to GB posed by the species, together with the estimated cost and the overall feasibility of eradication. We used these to consider the relative reduction in risk per unit cost when managing prioritised species based on different criteria. We showed that the cost-effectiveness of prioritisation within our sample using risk assessment scores alone, performed no better than a random ranking of the species. In contrast, prioritisation including management feasibility produced nearly two orders of magnitude improvement compared to random. We conclude that basing management actions on priorities based solely on risk assessment without considering management feasibility risks the inefficient use of limited resources. In this study, the cost-effectiveness of species prioritisation for action was greatly increased by the inclusion of risk management assessment.

Global costs of plant invasions must not be underestimated

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Comparing environmental impacts of alien plants, insects and pathogens in protected riparian forests

The prioritization of alien species according to the magnitude of their environmental impacts has become increasingly important for the management of invasive alien species. In this study, we applied the Environmental Impact Classification of Alien Taxa (EICAT) to classify alien taxa from three different taxonomic groups to facilitate the prioritisation of management actions for the threatened riparian forests of the Mura-Drava-Danube Biosphere Reserve, South East Europe. With local experts we collated a list of 198 alien species (115 plants, 45 insects, and 38 fungi) with populations reported in southeast European forest ecosystems and included them in the EICAT. We found impact reports for 114 species. Eleven of these species caused local extinctions of a native species, 35 led to a population decrease, 51 to a reduction in performance in at least one native species and for 17 alien species no effects on individual fitness of native species were detected. Fungi had significantly highest impact and were more likely to have information on their impacts reported. Competition and parasitism were the most important impact mechanisms of alien species. This study is, to our knowledge, the first application of EICAT to all known alien species of several taxonomic groups in a protected area. The impact rankings enabled to identify taxa that generally cause high impacts and to prioritize species for the management in protected areas according to their impact magnitudes. By following a standardized impact protocol, we identified several alien species causing high impacts that do not appear on any expert-based risk list, which are relevant for policymakers. Thus, we recommend that alien species be systematically screened to identify knowledge gaps and prioritize their management with respect to spatio-temporal trends in impact magnitudes.

Future Representation of Species’ Climatic Niches in Protected Areas: A Case Study With Austrian Endemics

Climate driven species’ range shifts may interfere with existing protected area (PA) networks, resulting in a mismatch between places where species are currently protected and places where they can thrive in the future. Here, we assess the climate-smartness of the Austrian PA network by focusing on endemic species’ climatic niches and their future representation within PAs. We calculated endemic species’ climatic niches and climate space available in PAs within their dispersal reach under current and future climates, with the latter represented by three climate change scenarios and three time-steps (2030, 2050, and 2080). Niches were derived from the area of occupancy of species and the extent of PAs, respectively, and calculated as bivariate density kernels on gradients of mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. We then computed climatic representation of species’ niches in PAs as the proportion of the species’ kernel covered by the PA kernel. We found that under both a medium (RCP 4.5) and severe (RCP 8.5) climate change scenario, representation of endemic species’ climatic niches by PAs will decrease to a sixth for animals and to a third for plants, on average, toward the end of the century. Twenty to thirty percent of Austrian endemic species will then have no representation of their climatic niches in PAs anymore. Species with larger geographical and wider elevational ranges will lose less climatic niche representation. The declining representation of climatic niches in PAs implies that, even if PAs may secure the persistence of a part of these endemics, only a small portion of intraspecific diversity of many species may be represented in PAs in the future. We discuss our findings in the context of the varied elevational gradients found in Austria and suggest that the most promising strategies for safeguarding endemic species’ evolutionary potential are to limit the magnitude of climate change and to reduce other pressures that additionally threaten their survival.

Mycorrhizal types influence island biogeography of plants

Plant colonization of islands may be limited by the availability of symbionts, particularly arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, which have limited dispersal ability compared to ectomycorrhizal and ericoid (EEM) as well as orchid mycorrhizal (ORC) fungi. We tested for such differential island colonization within contemporary angiosperm floras worldwide. We found evidence that AM plants experience a stronger mycorrhizal filter than other mycorrhizal or non-mycorrhizal (NM) plant species, with decreased proportions of native AM plant species on islands relative to mainlands. This effect intensified with island isolation, particularly for non-endemic plant species. The proportion of endemic AM plant species increased with island isolation, consistent with diversification filling niches left open by the mycorrhizal filter. We further found evidence of humans overcoming the initial mycorrhizal filter. Naturalized floras showed higher proportions of AM plant species than native floras, a pattern that increased with increasing isolation and land-use intensity. This work provides evidence that mycorrhizal fungal symbionts shape plant colonization of islands and subsequent diversification.

Neonatives and translocated species: different terms are needed for different species categories in conservation policies

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