A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave

Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October-19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

Empathic Accuracy and Cognitive and Affective Empathy in Young Adults With and Without Autism Spectrum Disorder

This study investigated whether young adults with ASD (n = 29) had impairments in Cognitive Empathy (CE), Affective Empathy (AE) or Empathic Accuracy (EA; the ability to track changes in others' thoughts and feelings) compared to typically-developing individuals (n = 31) using the Empathic Accuracy Task (EAT), which involves watching narrators recollecting emotionally-charged autobiographical events. Participants provided continuous ratings of the narrators' emotional intensity (indexing EA), labelled the emotions displayed (CE) and reported whether they shared the depicted emotions (AE). The ASD group showed deficits in EA for anger but did not differ from typically-developing participants in CE or AE on the EAT. The ASD group also reported lower CE (Perspective Taking) and AE (Empathic Concern) on the Interpersonal Reactivity Index, a self-report questionnaire.

Empathic Accuracy in Male Adolescents with Conduct Disorder and Higher versus Lower Levels of Callous-Unemotional Traits

Adolescents with disruptive behavior disorders are reported to show deficits in empathy and emotion recognition. However, prior studies have mainly used questionnaires to measure empathy or experimental paradigms that are lacking in ecological validity. We used an empathic accuracy (EA) task to study EA, emotion recognition, and affective empathy in 77 male adolescents aged 13–18 years: 37 with Conduct Disorder (CD) and 40 typically-developing controls. The CD sample was divided into higher callous-emotional traits (CD/CU+) and lower callous-unemotional traits (CD/CU-) subgroups using a median split. Participants watched films of actors recalling happy, sad, surprised, angry, disgusted or fearful autobiographical experiences and provided continuous ratings of emotional intensity (assessing EA), as well as naming the emotion (recognition) and reporting the emotion they experienced themselves (affective empathy). The CD and typically-developing groups did not significantly differ in EA and there were also no differences between the CD/CU+ and CD/CU- subgroups. Participants with CD were significantly less accurate than controls in recognizing sadness, fear, and disgust, all ps < 0.050, rs ≥ 0.30, whilst the CD/CU- and CD/CU+ subgroups did not differ in emotion recognition. Participants with CD also showed affective empathy deficits for sadness, fear, and disgust relative to controls, all ps < 0.010, rs ≥ 0.33, whereas the CD/CU+ and CD/CU- subgroups did not differ in affective empathy. These results extend prior research by demonstrating affective empathy and emotion recognition deficits in adolescents with CD using a more ecologically-valid task, and challenge the view that affective empathy deficits are specific to CD/CU+.

Facial emotion recognition and eye movement behaviour in conduct disorder

BACKGROUND

Conduct Disorder (CD) is associated with impairments in facial emotion recognition. However, it is unclear whether such deficits are explained by a failure to attend to emotionally informative face regions, such as the eyes, or by problems in the appraisal of emotional cues.

METHOD

Male and female adolescents with CD and varying levels of callous-unemotional (CU) traits and age- and sex-matched typically developing (TD) controls (aged 13-18) categorised the emotion of dynamic and morphed static faces. Concurrent eye tracking was used to relate categorisation performance to participants' allocation of overt attention.

RESULTS

Adolescents with CD were worse at emotion recognition than TD controls, with deficits observed across static and dynamic expressions. In addition, the CD group fixated less on the eyes when viewing fearful and sad expressions. Across all participants, higher levels of CU traits were associated with fear recognition deficits and reduced attention to the eyes of surprised faces. Within the CD group, however, higher CU traits were associated with better fear recognition. Overall, males were worse at recognising emotions than females and displayed a reduced tendency to fixate the eyes.

DISCUSSION

Adolescents with CD, and particularly males, showed deficits in emotion recognition and fixated less on the eyes when viewing emotional faces. Individual differences in fixation behaviour predicted modest variations in emotion categorisation. However, group differences in fixation were small and did not explain the much larger group differences in categorisation performance, suggesting that CD-related deficits in emotion recognition were not mediated by abnormal fixation patterns.

The familial basis of facial emotion recognition deficits in adolescents with conduct disorder and their unaffected relatives

BACKGROUND

There is accumulating evidence of impairments in facial emotion recognition in adolescents with conduct disorder (CD). However, the majority of studies in this area have only been able to demonstrate an association, rather than a causal link, between emotion recognition deficits and CD. To move closer towards understanding the causal pathways linking emotion recognition problems with CD, we studied emotion recognition in the unaffected first-degree relatives of CD probands, as well as those with a diagnosis of CD.

METHOD

Using a family-based design, we investigated facial emotion recognition in probands with CD (n = 43), their unaffected relatives (n = 21), and healthy controls (n = 38). We used the Emotion Hexagon task, an alternative forced-choice task using morphed facial expressions depicting the six primary emotions, to assess facial emotion recognition accuracy.

RESULTS

Relative to controls, the CD group showed impaired recognition of anger, fear, happiness, sadness and surprise (all p < 0.005). Similar to probands with CD, unaffected relatives showed deficits in anger and happiness recognition relative to controls (all p < 0.008), with a trend toward a deficit in fear recognition. There were no significant differences in performance between the CD probands and the unaffected relatives following correction for multiple comparisons.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that facial emotion recognition deficits are present in adolescents who are at increased familial risk for developing antisocial behaviour, as well as those who have already developed CD. Consequently, impaired emotion recognition appears to be a viable familial risk marker or candidate endophenotype for CD.

Hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis activity in adults with intellectual disabilities: a preliminary investigation

BACKGROUND

Cortisol is a marker of physiological arousal, exhibiting a characteristic pattern of diurnal activity. The daily cortisol profile has been xamined extensively and is atypical in a number of clinical disorders. However, there are very few studies focussing on the cortisol profile in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID). This paper reports a preliminary investigation into the nature of the cortisol profile in adults with mild or moderate ID and provides reflections on the challenges of psychophysiological research in this population.

METHODS

On two consecutive days, 39 adults with mild or moderate ID each donated saliva samples for cortisol analysis, at multiple times between waking and evening. A comparison between these data and the published literature permitted a descriptive assessment of the cortisol awakening response (CAR) and diurnal profile. A variety of psychometric measures and an assessment of behavioural history were also collected in order to describe aspects of the participants' emotional and behavioural states.

RESULTS

Individuals with ID exhibit a diurnal cortisol secretion profile, qualitatively similar to that of the typical, healthy, adult population. However, the findings also suggested a blunted CAR, warranting further investigation. There was also some evidence that cortisol secretion was affected by anxiety and a recent history of aggression.

CONCLUSION

While further work is required to characterise the CAR fully, there was no indication that the diurnal cortisol profile among people with ID differs from that of the typical population. This study also demonstrates that, although challenging, it is feasible, and acceptable to participants, to collect repeated physiological measures from men and women with mild and moderate ID.

Hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical axis function in attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder

The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical axis plays a critical role in mediating the physiological response to the imposition of stress. There are theoretical reasons to expect reduced basal cortisol secretion and cortisol hyporeactivity in hyperactive/impulsive or combined type attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Early studies reported profound abnormalities in the diurnal rhythm of cortisol secretion or the cortisol response to stress in children with severe or persistent ADHD. However, subsequent work using larger samples or improved methods has not provided convincing evidence for changes in basal cortisol secretion in non-comorbid forms of ADHD. In contrast, children with ADHD and comorbid oppositional defiant disorder show lower basal cortisol concentrations and a blunted cortisol awakening response. With respect to cortisol reactivity to stress in ADHD, recent evidence has been mixed, with some studies reporting normal cortisol responses and others showing blunted cortisol responses in non-comorbid ADHD. Again, it appears important to consider whether comorbid disorders are present, because children with ADHD and comorbid disruptive behavior disorders exhibit blunted cortisol responses, whereas those with comorbid anxiety disorders show enhanced cortisol responses to stress. Longitudinal studies are required to investigate whether abnormalities in cortisol secretion play a causal role in the etiology of ADHD and related disruptive behavior disorders.

Acute and chronic effects of corticosterone on 5-HT1A receptor-mediated autoinhibition in the rat dorsal raphe nucleus

Corticosteroid modulation of 5-HT(1A) receptor function may contribute to the aetiology of affective disorders. To examine this modulation, the effects of acute and chronic corticosterone administration on 5-HT(1A) autoreceptor function were investigated using in vitro electrophysiology in the rat dorsal raphe nucleus (DRN). The magnitude and time course of the inhibitory response to a submaximal dose of 5-HT was not affected by acute application of either corticosterone (30-200 nM) or dexamethasone (100 nM) in vitro, when tested either in slices from control rats or rats adrenalectomised two weeks prior to recording. For chronic treatment, rats were supplied with drinking water containing corticosterone (50 microg/ml) or ethanol vehicle (0.5%) for 25-31 days. The autoinhibitory response to 5-HT was significantly attenuated in the corticosterone-treated group; vehicle EC(50)=48+/-8 microM vs. corticosterone EC(50)=121+/-20 microM. Furthermore a subpopulation of 5-HT neurones from corticosterone-treated animals exhibited marked insensitivity to 5-HT. In situ hybridisation histochemistry showed that corticosterone did not affect the expression of mRNA encoding the 5-HT(1A) receptor or either the type 1 and type 3 subunits of the G-protein linked inwardly rectifying K+ (GIRK) channel. However, GIRK2 subunit mRNA expression was significantly reduced. Thus, 5-HT(1A) autoreceptor function in the DRN is attenuated following chronic, but not acute, exposure to elevated corticosterone levels, and this effect may involve changes to the receptor-effector coupling mechanism.