Mortality patterns over a 10-year period in Kibera, an urban informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya, 2009-2018

BACKGROUND

Reliable mortality data are important for evaluating the impact of health interventions. However, data on mortality patterns among populations living in urban informal settlements are limited.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the mortality patterns and trends in an urban informal settlement in Kibera, Nairobi, Kenya.

METHODS

Using data from a population-based surveillance platform we estimated overall and cause-specific mortality rates for all age groups using person-year-observation (pyo) denominators and using Poisson regression tested for trends in mortality rates over time. We compared associated mortality rates across groups using incidence rate ratios (IRR). Assignment of probable cause(s) of death was done using the InterVA-4 model.

RESULTS

We registered 1134 deaths from 2009 to 2018, yielding a crude mortality rate of 4.4 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]4.2-4.7) per 1,000 pyo. Males had higher overall mortality rates than females (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.44; 95% CI, 1.28-1.62). The highest mortality rate was observed among children aged < 12 months (41.5 per 1,000 pyo; 95% CI 36.6-46.9). All-cause mortality rates among children < 12 months were higher than that of children aged 1-4 years (IRR, 8.5; 95% CI, 6.95-10.35). The overall mortality rate significantly declined over the period, from 6.7 per 1,000 pyo (95% CI, 5.7-7.8) in 2009 to 2.7 (95% CI, 2.0-3.4) per 1,000 pyo in 2018. The most common cause of death was acute respiratory infections (ARI)/pneumonia (18.1%). Among children < 5 years, the ARI/pneumonia deaths rate declined significantly over the study period (5.06 per 1,000 pyo in 2009 to 0.61 per 1,000 pyo in 2018; p = 0.004). Similarly, death due to pulmonary tuberculosis among persons 5 years and above significantly declined (0.98 per 1,000 pyo in 2009 to 0.25 per 1,000 pyo in 2018; p = 0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

Overall and some cause-specific mortality rates declined over time, representing important public health successes among this population.

Metabolically healthy overweight/obesity are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease in adults, even in the absence of metabolic risk factors: A systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

This review examined the risk of cardiovascular disease in adults with metabolically healthy overweight/obesity. A systematic review and meta-analysis using data from Medline, EMBASE, SCOPUS and Cochrane Library searched from inception up to 31st October 2019. We included prospective cohort studies of adults who are metabolically healthy or unhealthy. Outcomes were fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events, all-cause mortality. Pooled relative risk was calculated for each outcome in populations with metabolically healthy overweight and metabolically healthy obesity using metabolically healthy normal weight as reference. A random-effects model was used for meta-analysis, and risk of bias assessment tool for nonrandomized studies assessed risk of bias within each study. Twenty-three prospective cohort studies with 4,492,723 participants were included. Cardiovascular disease risk was increased in metabolically healthy groups with overweight (RR = 1.34, CI: 1.23-1.46, n = 20, I² = 90.3%) and obesity (RR = 1.58, CI: 1.34-1.85, n = 21, I² = 92.2) compared with a reference group with metabolically healthy normal weight. Cardiovascular disease risk was similar irrespective of the number of risk factors used to define metabolically healthy and the risk remained in the group with no metabolic risk factors. Cardiovascular disease risk is increased in populations with overweight and obesity classified as metabolically healthy even when there were no metabolic risk factors.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Prevalence, Seroprevalence, and Exposure among Evacuees from Wuhan, China, 2020

To determine prevalence of, seroprevalence of, and potential exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among a cohort of evacuees returning to the United States from Wuhan, China, in January 2020, we conducted a cross-sectional study of quarantined evacuees from 1 repatriation flight. Overall, 193 of 195 evacuees completed exposure surveys and submitted upper respiratory or serum specimens or both at arrival in the United States. Nearly all evacuees had taken preventive measures to limit potential exposure while in Wuhan, and none had detectable SARS-CoV-2 in upper respiratory tract specimens, suggesting the absence of asymptomatic respiratory shedding among this group at the time of testing. Evidence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 1 evacuee, who reported experiencing no symptoms or high-risk exposures in the previous 2 months. These findings demonstrated that this group of evacuees posed a low risk of introducing SARS-CoV-2 to the United States.

A Cross-Cutting Approach to Surveillance and Laboratory Capacity as a Platform to Improve Health Security in Uganda

Global health security depends on effective surveillance for infectious diseases. In Uganda, resources are inadequate to support collection and reporting of data necessary for an effective and responsive surveillance system. We used a cross-cutting approach to improve surveillance and laboratory capacity in Uganda by leveraging an existing pediatric inpatient malaria sentinel surveillance system to collect data on expanded causes of illness, facilitate development of real-time surveillance, and provide data on antimicrobial resistance. Capacity for blood culture collection was established, along with options for serologic testing for select zoonotic conditions, including arboviral infection, brucellosis, and leptospirosis. Detailed demographic, clinical, and laboratory data for all admissions were captured through a web-based system accessible at participating hospitals, laboratories, and the Uganda Public Health Emergency Operations Center. Between July 2016 and December 2017, the expanded system was activated in pediatric wards of 6 regional government hospitals. During that time, patient data were collected from 30,500 pediatric admissions, half of whom were febrile but lacked evidence of malaria. More than 5,000 blood cultures were performed; 4% yielded bacterial pathogens, and another 4% yielded likely contaminants. Several WHO antimicrobial resistance priority pathogens were identified, some with multidrug-resistant phenotypes, including Acinetobacter spp., Citrobacter spp., Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, and typhoidal and nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. Leptospirosis and arboviral infections (alphaviruses and flaviviruses) were documented. The lessons learned and early results from the development of this multisectoral surveillance system provide the knowledge, infrastructure, and workforce capacity to serve as a foundation to enhance the capacity to detect, report, and rapidly respond to wide-ranging public health concerns in Uganda.