The burden of alcohol on health care during COVID-19

Alcohol's impact on global health is substantial and of a similar order of magnitude to that from COVID‐19. Alcohol now also poses specific concerns, such as increased risk of severe lung infections, domestic violence, child abuse, depression and suicide. Its use is unlikely to aid physical distancing or other preventative behavioural measures. Globally, alcohol contributes to 20% of injury and 11.5% of non‐injury emergency room presentations. We provide some broad comparisons between alcohol‐attributable and COVID‐19‐related hospitalisations and deaths in North America using most recent data. For example, for Canada in 2017 it was recently estimated there were 105 065 alcohol‐attributable hospitalisations which represent a substantially higher rate over time than the 10 521 COVID‐19 hospitalisations reported during the first 5 months of the pandemic. Despite the current importance of protecting health‐care services, most governments have deemed alcohol sales to be as essential as food, fuel and pharmaceuticals. In many countries, alcohol is now more readily available and affordable than ever before, a situation global alcohol producers benefit from and have helped engineer. We argue that to protect frontline health‐care services and public health more generally, it is essential that modest, evidence‐based restrictions on alcohol prices, availability and marketing are introduced. In particular, we recommend increases in excise taxation coupled with minimum unit pricing to both reduce impacts on health‐care services and provide much‐needed revenues for governments at this critical time.

Estimating the public health impact of disbanding a government alcohol monopoly: application of new methods to the case of Sweden

BACKGROUND

Government alcohol monopolies were created in North America and Scandinavia to limit health and social problems. The Swedish monopoly, Systembolaget, reports to a health ministry and controls the sale of all alcoholic beverages with > 3.5% alcohol/volume for off-premise consumption, within a public health mandate. Elsewhere, alcohol monopolies are being dismantled with evidence of increased consumption and harms. We describe innovative modelling techniques to estimate health outcomes in scenarios involving Systembolaget being replaced by 1) privately owned liquor stores, or 2) alcohol sales in grocery stores. The methods employed can be applied in other jurisdictions and for other policy changes.

METHODS

Impacts of the privatisation scenarios on pricing, outlet density, trading hours, advertising and marketing were estimated based on Swedish expert opinion and published evidence. Systematic reviews were conducted to estimate impacts on alcohol consumption in each scenario. Two methods were applied to estimate harm impacts: (i) alcohol attributable morbidity and mortality were estimated utilising the International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies (InterMAHP); (ii) ARIMA methods to estimate the relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and specific types of alcohol-related mortality and crime.

RESULTS

Replacing government stores with private liquor stores (Scenario 1) led to a 20.0% (95% CI, 15.3-24.7) increase in per capita consumption. Replacement with grocery stores (Scenario 2) led to a 31.2% (25.1-37.3%) increase. With InterMAHP there were 763 or + 47% (35-59%) and 1234 or + 76% (60-92%) more deaths per year, for Scenarios 1 and 2 respectively. With ARIMA, there were 850 (334-1444) more deaths per year in Scenario 1 and 1418 more in Scenario 2 (543-2505). InterMAHP also estimated 10,859 or + 29% (22-34%) and 16,118 or + 42% (35-49%) additional hospital stays per year respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

There would be substantial adverse consequences for public health and safety were Systembolaget to be privatised. We demonstrate a new combined approach for estimating the impact of alcohol policies on consumption and, using two alternative methods, alcohol-attributable harm. This approach could be readily adapted to other policies and settings. We note the limitation that some significant sources of uncertainty in the estimates of harm impacts were not modelled.

The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator: development and validation of a tool for identifying African surgical patients at risk of severe postoperative complications

BACKGROUND

The African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS) showed that surgical patients in Africa have a mortality twice the global average. Existing risk assessment tools are not valid for use in this population because the pattern of risk for poor outcomes differs from high-income countries. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a simple, preoperative risk stratification tool to identify African surgical patients at risk for in-hospital postoperative mortality and severe complications.

METHODS

ASOS was a 7-day prospective cohort study of adult patients undergoing surgery in Africa. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator was constructed with a multivariable logistic regression model for the outcome of in-hospital mortality and severe postoperative complications. The following preoperative risk factors were entered into the model; age, sex, smoking status, ASA physical status, preoperative chronic comorbid conditions, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery.

RESULTS

The model was derived from 8799 patients from 168 African hospitals. The composite outcome of severe postoperative complications and death occurred in 423/8799 (4.8%) patients. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator includes the following risk factors: age, ASA physical status, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. The model showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.805 and good calibration with c-statistic corrected for optimism of 0.784.

CONCLUSIONS

This simple preoperative risk calculator could be used to identify high-risk surgical patients in African hospitals and facilitate increased postoperative surveillance.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT03044899.

Alcohol Consumption and the Physical Availability of Take-Away Alcohol: Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses of the Days and Hours of Sale and Outlet Density

OBJECTIVE

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were completed studying the effect of changes in the physical availability of take-away alcohol on per capita alcohol consumption. Previous reviews examining this topic have not focused on off-premise outlets where take-away alcohol is sold and have not completed meta-analyses.

METHOD

Systematic reviews were conducted separately for policies affecting the temporal availability (days and hours of sale) and spatial availability (outlet density) of take-away alcohol. Studies were included up to December 2015. Quality criteria were used to select articles that studied the effect of changes in these policies on alcohol consumption with a focus on natural experiments. Random-effects meta-analyses were applied to produce the estimated effect of an additional day of sale on total and beverage-specific consumption.

RESULTS

Separate systematic reviews identified seven studies regarding days and hours of sale and four studies regarding density. The majority of articles included in these systematic reviews, for days/hours of sale (7/7) and outlet density (3/4), concluded that restricting the physical availability of take-away alcohol reduces per capita alcohol consumption. Meta-analyses studying the effect of adding one additional day of sale found that this was associated with per capita consumption increases of 3.4% (95% CI [2.7, 4.1]) for total alcohol, 5.3% (95% CI [3.2, 7.4]) for beer, 2.6% (95% CI [1.8, 3.5]) for wine, and 2.6% (95% CI [2.1, 3.2]) for spirits. The small number of included studies regarding hours of sale and density precluded meta-analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study suggest that decreasing the physical availability of take-away alcohol will decrease per capita consumption. As decreasing per capita consumption has been shown to reduce alcohol-related harm, restricting the physical availability of take-away alcohol would be expected to result in improvements to public health.

[Moderate alcohol consumption brings no positive effect on health. A critical research analysis]

The evidence for the beneficial health effects of moderate drinking is weaker than commonly perceived. No randomised controlled trials have been done. Observational studies suffer from unavoidable methodological limitations, chiefly from confounding and misclassification. Clinical advice to patients as well as public health recommendations should discourage initiation of alcohol consumption, as well as recommend the reduction of excessive drinking. The absence of health benefits strengthens the the arguments for effective population-level policies, e.g. raising alcohol prices and restricting the physical availability of alcohol.

Efficacy and the strength of evidence of U.S. alcohol control policies

BACKGROUND

Public policy can limit alcohol consumption and its associated harm, but no direct comparison of the relative efficacy of alcohol control policies exists for the U.S.

PURPOSE

To identify alcohol control policies and develop quantitative ratings of their efficacy and strength of evidence.

METHODS

In 2010, a Delphi panel of ten U.S. alcohol policy experts identified and rated the efficacy of alcohol control policies for reducing binge drinking and alcohol-impaired driving among both the general population and youth, and the strength of evidence informing the efficacy of each policy. The policies were nominated on the basis of scientific evidence and potential for public health impact. Analysis was conducted in 2010-2012.

RESULTS

Panelists identified and rated 47 policies. Policies limiting price received the highest ratings, with alcohol taxes receiving the highest ratings for all four outcomes. Highly rated policies for reducing binge drinking and alcohol-impaired driving in the general population also were rated highly among youth, although several policies were rated more highly for youth compared with the general population. Policy efficacy ratings for the general population and youth were positively correlated for reducing both binge drinking (r=0.50) and alcohol-impaired driving (r=0.45). The correlation between efficacy ratings for reducing binge drinking and alcohol-impaired driving was strong for the general population (r=0.88) and for youth (r=0.85). Efficacy ratings were positively correlated with strength-of-evidence ratings.

CONCLUSIONS

Comparative policy ratings can help characterize the alcohol policy environment, inform policy discussions, and identify future research needs.

Impact on alcohol-related mortality of a rapid rise in the density of private liquor outlets in British Columbia: a local area multi-level analysis

AIMS

To study relationships between rates of alcohol-related deaths and (i) the density of liquor outlets and (ii) the proportion of liquor stores owned privately in British Columbia (BC) during a period of rapid increase in private stores.

DESIGN

Multi-level regression analyses assessed the relationship between population rates of private liquor stores and alcohol-related mortality after adjusting for potential confounding.

SETTING

The 89 local health areas of BC, Canada across a 6-year period from 2003 to 2008, for a longitudinal sample with n = 534.

MEASUREMENTS

Population rates of liquor store density, alcohol-related death and socio-economic variables obtained from government sources.

FINDINGS

The total number of liquor stores per 1000 residents was associated significantly and positively with population rates of alcohol-related death (P < 0.01). A conservative estimate is that rates of alcohol-related death increased by 3.25% for each 20% increase in private store density. The percentage of liquor stores in private ownership was also associated independently with local rates of alcohol-related death after controlling for overall liquor store density (P < 0.05). Alternative models confirmed significant relationships between changes in private store density and mortality over time.

CONCLUSIONS

The rapidly rising densities of private liquor stores in British Columbia from 2003 to 2008 was associated with a significant local-area increase in rates of alcohol-related death.

Potential consequences of replacing a retail alcohol monopoly with a private licence system: results from Sweden

AIM

To examine the potential effects of replacing the Swedish alcohol retail system with a private licensing system on alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm.

DESIGN

Two possible scenarios were analysed: (1) replacing the current alcohol retail monopoly with private licensed stores that specialize in alcohol sales or (2) making all alcohol available in grocery stores. We utilized a multiplicative model that projected effects of changes in a set of key factors including hours of sale, retail prices, promotion and advertising and outlet density. Next, we estimated the effect of the projected consumption increase on a set of harm indicators. Values for the model parameters were obtained from the research literature.

MEASUREMENTS

Measures of alcohol-related harm included explicitly alcohol-related mortality, accident mortality, suicide, homicide, assaults, drinking driving and sickness absence.

FINDINGS

According to the projections, scenario 1 yields a consumption increase of 17% (1.4 litres/capita), which in turn would cause an additional 770 deaths, 8500 assaults, 2700 drinking driving offences and 4.5 million sick days per year. The corresponding figures for scenario 2 are a consumption increase of 37.4% (3.1 litres/capita) leading to an additional annual toll of 2000 deaths, 20 000 assaults, 6600 drinking driving offences and 11.1 million days of sick leave.

CONCLUSIONS

Projections based on the research literature suggest that privatization of the Swedish alcohol retail market would significantly increase alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm.

Prevention programs in the 21st century: what we do not discuss in public

Prevention research concerning alcohol, tobacco and other drugs faces a number of challenges as the scientific foundation is strengthened for the future. Seven issues which the prevention research field should address are discussed: lack of transparency in analyses of prevention program outcomes, lack of disclosure of copyright and potential for profit/income during publication, post-hoc outcome variable selection and reporting only outcomes which show positive and statistical significance at any follow-up point, tendency to evaluate statistical significance only rather than practical significance as well, problem of selection bias in terms of selecting subjects and limited generalizability, the need for confirmation of outcomes in which only self-report data are used and selection of appropriate statistical distributions in conducting significance testing. In order to establish a solid scientific base for alcohol, tobacco and drug prevention, this paper calls for discussions, disclosures and debates about the above issues (and others) as essential. In summary, the best approach is always transparency.

Changes in per capita alcohol sales during the partial privatization of British Columbia's retail alcohol monopoly 2003-2008: a multi-level local area analysis

AIM

To investigate the independent effects on liquor sales of an increase in (a) the density of liquor outlets and (b) the proportion of liquor stores in private rather than government ownership in British Columbia between 2003/4 and 2007/8.

DESIGN

The British Columbia Liquor Distribution Branch provided data on litres of ethanol sold through different types of outlets in 89 local health areas of the province by beverage type. Multi-level regression models were used to examine the relationship between per capita alcohol sales and outlet densities for different types of liquor outlet after adjusting for potential confounding social, economic and demographic factors as well as spatial and temporal autocorrelation.

SETTING

Liquor outlets in 89 local health areas of British Columbia, Canada.

FINDINGS

The number of private stores per 10,000 residents was associated significantly and positively with per capita sales of ethanol in beer, coolers, spirits and wine, while the reverse held for government liquor stores. Significant positive effects were also identified for the number of bars and restaurants per head of population. The percentage of liquor stores in private versus government ownership was also associated significantly with per capita alcohol sales when controlling for density of liquor stores and of on-premise outlets (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

The trend towards privatisation of liquor outlets between 2003/04 and 2007/08 in British Columbia has contributed to increased per capita sales of alcohol and hence possibly also to increased alcohol-related harm.

Biological markers of drug use in the club setting

OBJECTIVE

The prevalence of drug and alcohol use among patrons of clubs featuring electronic music dance events was determined by using biological assays at entrance and exit.

METHOD

Using a portal methodology that randomly selects groups of patrons on arrival at clubs, oral assays for determining level and type of drug use and level of alcohol use were obtained anonymously. Patrons provided self-reported data on their personal characteristics. A total of 362 patrons were interviewed at entrance and provided oral assay data, and 277 provided data at both entrance and exit.

RESULTS

Overall, one quarter of all patrons surveyed at entrance were positive for some type of drug use. Based on our exit sample, one quarter of the sample was positive at exit. Individual drugs most prevalent at entrance or exit included cocaine, marijuana, and amphetamines/stimulants. Only the amphetamine/stimulant category increased significantly from entrance to exit. Drug-using patrons arrive at the club already using drugs; few patrons arrive with no drug use and leave with detectable levels of drug use. Clubs vary widely in drug-user prevalence at entrance and exit, suggesting that both events and club policies and practices may attract different types of patrons. Approximately one half of the total entrance sample arrived with detectable alcohol use, and nearly one fifth arrived with an estimated blood alcohol concentration of .08 or greater. Based on our exit sample data, one third of patrons were intoxicated, and slightly less than one fifth were using both drugs and alcohol at exit. Clubs attract a wide array of emerging adults, with both genders and all ethnicities well represented. Clubs also attract emerging adults who are not in college and who are working full time.

CONCLUSIONS

At clubs featuring electronic music dance events, drug use and/or high levels of alcohol use were detected using biological assays from patrons at entrance and exit from the clubs. Thus, these clubs present a potentially important location for prevention strategies designed to reduce the risks associated with drug and alcohol use for young people. Combined substance use may prove particularly important for prevention efforts designed to increase safety at clubs. Personal characteristics do not identify drug users, suggesting that environmental strategies for club safety may offer more promise for promoting health and safety.

A community prevention intervention to reduce youth from inhaling and ingesting harmful legal products

Youth use of harmful legal products, including inhaling or ingesting everyday household products, prescription drugs, and over-the-counter drugs, constitutes a growing health problem for American society. As such, a single targeted approach to preventing such a drug problem in a community is unlikely to be sufficient to reduce use and abuse at the youth population level. Therefore, the primary focus of this article is on an innovative, comprehensive, community-based prevention intervention. The intervention described here is based upon prior research that has a potential of preventing youth use of alcohol and other legal products. It builds upon three evidence-based prevention interventions from the substance abuse field: community mobilization, environmental strategies, and school-based prevention education intervention. The results of a feasibility project are presented and the description of a planned efficacy trial is discussed.

Effect of policies directed at youth access to smoking: results from the SimSmoke computer simulation model

OBJECTIVES

To develop a simulation model to predict the effects of youth access policies on retail compliance, smoking rates, and smoking attributable deaths.

METHODS

A model of youth access policies is developed based on empirical research and a theory of perceived risk. The model incorporates substitution into other sources as retail sales are restricted, and is used to project the number of smokers and smoking related deaths. Various policies to limit youth access to cigarettes are evaluated, and we explore how efficient policies may be developed.

RESULTS

The model predicts that a well designed and comprehensive policy that includes sufficient compliance checks, penalties, and community involvement has the potential to reduce the number of young smokers. Because smoking related deaths occur later in life, the effects on health are largely delayed.

CONCLUSIONS

A well designed youth access policy has the ability to affect youth smoking rates in the short term, and will lead to savings in lives in future years. The ability of retail oriented policies to reduce youth smoking, however, is limited. Other tobacco control policies, including those directed at non-retail sources of cigarettes, are also needed.

Phases of alcohol problem prevention research

We build on precedents from other health research to present a phases model of research for alcohol problem prevention that accommodates the special characteristics of this research. We propose a five-level model, in which research moves along a series of relevant continua: from basic to more and more applied research; from descriptive hypothesis-generating pilot studies to full-fledged, methodologically sophisticated, hypothesis-testing studies; from smaller to larger samples for testing; from greater to lesser control of experimental conditions; from more artificial "laboratory" environments to real-world geographically defined communities; from testing the effects of single prevention strategies to more complex studies of multiple strategies integrated into intervention systems; and from research-driven outcome studies to "demonstration" projects that evaluate the capacity of various types of communities to implement prevention programs based on prior evaluations. The five phases of research are: (1) foundational research to define and determine the prevalence of specific alcohol-involved problems, establish causal factors and processes that yield the specific problems or increase the risk of a problem, and provide the foundations for the development of effective prevention interventions; (2) developmental (preliminary effectiveness) studies to develop and test the likely effectiveness, safety, and costs of new interventions or to assess the effectiveness, safety, and costs of an existing intervention; (3) efficacy studies to determine the effects, safety, and costs of an intervention under optimal conditions of implementation (or availability or enforcement) and acceptance (or adoption at the community, organizational, or group level; or participation, compliance, or adherence at the individual level); (4) effectiveness studies of the real-world effectiveness of preventive interventions with purposeful or natural variation in implementation and acceptance; and (5) demonstration studies of the effects of interventions when widely disseminated. The proposed phases model for alcohol problem prevention research presented herein differs in significant ways from the models established by other National Institutes of Health agencies. Greater emphasis is placed on natural experiments, on methods development along the whole research continuum, on collapsing or combining research phases when appropriate, on recognizing the critical importance of behavioral parameters early as well as late in the research sequence, and on extending the research continuum to embrace diffusion and dissemination (i.e., technology transfer) studies. We also include examples of phased research in existing alcohol studies and a discussion of relevant issues, including cost, special populations, methods, and dissemination. If systematically followed, this model has the potential to contribute to wider testing and dissemination of prevention interventions of known effectiveness.

The cost effectiveness of treatment for alcoholism: a first approximation

This study undertakes an analysis of cost effectiveness of alcoholism treatment modalities based upon (1) findings from clinical trials, (2) costs for treatment in settings and/or by providers and (3) recommendations from treatment experts about appropriate settings, providers and treatment events. This analysis, which assumes a prototypic patient, suggests that modalities with the most evidence of effectiveness (based on three or more clinical trials) are not the most expensive. Within this study, total cost of care was negatively related to effectiveness. Modalities categorized as having insufficient evidence of effectiveness (i.e., lacking three or more clinical trials) are in the higher cost categories. The results of this first effort to establish initial cost/effectiveness considerations are intended to stimulate researchers to conduct the types of clinical studies where both cost and effectiveness are carefully measured to increase the scientific basis for future cost/effect policy considerations. The authors expect future clinical studies will revise the results of this initial effort.

Familial lysosomal storage disease with generalized vacuolization and sialic aciduria. Sporadic Salla disease

Two eight- and sixteen-year-old children with severe progressive neurologic disease revealed an ultrastructural finding of lysosomal vacuolization in mesenchymal or parenchymal cells of different organ biopsies (skin, muscle, nerve and liver), which may be very suggestive of mucolipidosis. However, in our patients biochemical tests available for these diseases yielded negative results, except for increased excretion of free sialic acid in urine and sialic acid storage in cultured fibroblasts. The clinical picture and the ultrastructural and biochemical findings were compatible with Salla disease, a rare lysosomal storage disease originally observed in Finland.